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The depth of talent in this draft is supposed to be pretty huge. I hope that with all the picks the Sox have accumulated, they go for a nice balance of skills and tools, HS and C, all that. They seem to have a pretty good eye for undervalued college performance - Pedroia and Alvarez have both been surprisingly productive - but I'd like to see a broader range of selections.
I don't know nearly enough about amateur talent to suggest any names. I think i remember reading about the Sox having an interest in John Mayberry Jr. from Stanford.
I'd be very surprised if the Sox used a pick on a 21-year-old Cuban position player, but who knows.
would be nice to have Matt Murton back.
I believe the Mariners may select him again with the # 4 pick.
He's #24 on BA's Top 200, and #22 at the Brewerfan.net list.
Well, don't forget we're dealing with Bill Bavasi here. Anyway, it's what the Seattle Times reported not long ago.
Jim Callis: We keep hearing that the Red Sox could take a couple of high schoolers with their early picks. The most common names are 1B Henry Sanchez (San Diego) and SS Reese Havens (South Carolina)....
We hear the Red Sox are very strongly interested in RHP Lance Broadway. With the way he has pitched recently--he dominated Tulane in front of a lot of scouts in his previous start--Boston may have to take him in the first round as opposed to the sandwich area to ensure getting him.
Apparently pornstars are the new market ineffeciency.
MLB.com draft central has a bunch of coverage.
They have a ton of videos of prospects up, as well. You can take a look at the high schoolers Jim Callis recently mentioned on the BA draft blog: catcher Jon Egan (Hephzibah, Ga.), shortstop Reese Havens (Sullivan's Island, S.C.), outfielder Colby Rasmus (Phenix City, Ala.) and first baseman Justin Smoak (Goose Creek, S.C.).
Egan looks pretty good, and he's a Georgian to boot. The scouting report compares him to Eddie Taubensee, which is pretty disappointing for these things - I'd expect Johnny Bench, or maybe Mickey Mantle crossed with Josh Gibson. There's also about a minute-long defensive section to the video which features his butt very prominently. He could sell jeans here.
I've heard Reese Havens linked to the Sox before, he looks like a good middle IF prospect, too. Nice swing.
Though, I should note, I actually know nothing about analyzing tools.
Must stuff I've read on Reese seems to indicate power is his best attribute and he's probably going to have to be a pro 3B.
Medium-large frame, stout. Strong through hips, well-develop upper body. Strong, quick hacks. Compact stroke, adjusts to in-out location. Sure-handed. Feel for game, plays hard. Best fit at 3B. Bat speed. Strength, eye and stroke mechanics to hit.
I also note that Havens is "strong through hips." That's some high-quality authentic gibberish. Possibly a description of his birthing.
I don't think Theo's losing sleep over that one.
Yes, I'm sure he's thrilled to have Bladergroen instead.
On the draft, here a couple fun links:
Sickels had some people do a mock draft, and the Red Sox were represented by TempleUSox of SOSH fame. Results are here. You'll need to scroll down. Here are the names:
1---23rd----Trevor Crowe, OF, University of Arizona
1---26th-----Colby Rasmus, OF, Phenix City, Alabama, HS
1S-42nd-----Chaz Roe, RHP, Lexington Kentucky HS
1S-45th-----Henry Sanchez, 1B, San Diego CA HS
1S-47th-----Reese Havens, SS, Sullivans Island SC HS
2---57th-----Chase Headley, 3B, University of Tennessee
4---138th----Brandon Durden, LHP, Georgia College
5---168th----Josh Sullivan, RHP, Auburn
Also, apparently there was a MLB.com mock draft that was all done in audio (WTF?), in which we selected the UMass pitcher with our first pick. Exciting day tomorrow. Fun to follow.
What I'm wondering is how that would translate to the Sox this year. How many average to good players would they need for it to be considered a success? My guess is around 1.
BTW, Philly, I saw your 1993 study on SOSH, very nice stuff. I liked your conclusion--that Theo will get 7 studs in the first 6 picks--especially.
I'm just putting that together now. Well, right now I'm procrastinating...
One is about right though.
In terms of average players:
picks 23 and 26 are about 15% chances each
all of the other picks are down around 5% - the drop off from 23/26 to 42/45/47 is that steep.
In terms of good to great players:
picks 23/26 are about 15% chances each
picks 42/45/47/57 are under 5% each
Looking at the broad range from useful to great the picks at 23/26 should be 30% chances and the other high picks should be around 10%.
A great draft would be one good player the Sox keep, 1-2 solid looking prospects Theo wisely trades before they flame out and one role player the Sox could get some cheap use from.
That would be pretty ideal.
23) Jacoby Ellsbury, leadoff-type OF, Oregon St
26) Craig Hansen(!!), ridiculous Boras-caused drop
42) Colby Rasmus, HS OF with power potential
45) Ryan Mount, HS SS
47) Jonathan Egan, HS C with nice little tushy
Apparently polished C pitcher and gay pornstar Lance Broadway has performed so well in the CWS that he will almost certainly be gone when the Sox pick at 23.
Sox draft slot probabilities
Fun with the Moneyball draft
1993 draft
1---23rd----Trevor Crowe, OF, University of Arizona
1---26th-----Colby Rasmus, OF, Phenix City, Alabama, HS
1S-42nd-----Chaz Roe, RHP, Lexington Kentucky HS
1S-45th-----Henry Sanchez, 1B, San Diego CA HS
1S-47th-----Reese Havens, SS, Sullivans Island SC HS
2---57th-----Chase Headley, 3B, University of Tennessee
4---138th----Brandon Durden, LHP, Georgia College
5---168th----Josh Sullivan, RHP, Auburn
Cool stuff. I think one of the SoSH prospect dudes made the picks. I'd be a little surprised to see the Sox go for a HS pitcher with a supplemental pick, but I'd be very excited about whatever HS pitcher they liked that much.
Interestingly, BA thinks Rasmus will still be available at #42 for the Sox.
check. uh-huh
And that's not counting the sleepers!
I can't wait. 20-22 rds finished by 6 pm, intitial buzz about good drafts/bad drafts out at about 6:01 pm. (Of course, first rd will be dissected by 1:30)
Team X had a pathetic draft. I bet their fans want to kill themselves.
Oh. My. God. My team's draft kicked ASS. Let me toss these guys into my mock 2007 lineup. ######-A!
And, Pat Perry is my backup catcher in 2007 before he pushes 'Tek over to 1B in 2008 and beyond -- we don't need anymore catchers!
Enjoy it while it lasts, Philly. What fun is reality?
Pat Perry was a better hitter in college than Pedroia!
And he's got great leaserships skills too. I hear he's teaching the kids in extended spring training how to shave.
Matt van der Bosch is hitting .355 through his first week in Carolina, by the way.
1. DBacks - Justin Upton, 3B/SS
2. Royals - Alex Gordon, 3B
3. M's - Jeff Clement, C
4. Nats - Ryan Zimmerman, 3B
5. Brewers - Ryan Braun, 3B
Clement's a big, stupid overdraft, right?
Neh.
I'm not in love with Ellsbury, from what I've seen.
Angels don't take Hochevar.
Will the Sox have a shot at (both of) them?
And then an actual HS pitcher at #47. Theo, shifting this shizzit up a bit.
One more, now.
This looks like a good draft on early returns. I'm a huge, huge fan of the Hansen selection.
No, they drafted him as a pitcher. I was listening.
That's really frickin' weird. I could swear I heard they drafted him as a pitcher.
I guess I'll reserve judgment, but I find this really strange.
Buchholz is officially the most interesting Sox pick this year.
I'm not a huge fan of Teagarden, myself. Egan's supposed to have awesome power, and good catcher tools.
Ellsbury looks exactly the same as Pedroia. He has a little worse strike zone judgement, but better speed. I don't have a problem with him
Lowrie strikes out a lot against sub-GCL pitching and the scouts don't really like him, do they? I'm not sold on him yet
I hate the high school pitcher just cause he won't be any fun to follow in the minor leagues until like 2013
Ohhhh, I hate the waiting game.
Anybody think Bill James or voros or stat guy 7 did a study showing that low wear and tear pitchers did better injury wise. Papelbon, now Hansen, Bucholz if he pitches?
Hottovy too, right? And I thought there were other relievers the last two years...
Interesting draft, in all events.
Sox pick HS pitcher with # 138.
I guess the happy spin is that a stat-knowledgeable team like the Sox must be very positive on a HS arm in order pick them in the 1s and 4th rounds.
Anybody know anything about him?
From rotoworld...
Red Sox selected St. John's RHP Craig Hansen with the 26th pick today.
Hansen, a terrific reliever with a mid-90s fastball and a hard slider, was talked about a potential top-10 pick. He slipped to Boston and could be the first 2005 draftee to reach the majors, perhaps as soon as August. He figures to be a long-term setup man and maybe a closer. Jun. 7 - 3:21 pm et
Still available in the 14th (or so) round, I believe.
I'd guess this means noone believes they are signable.
Well, he went 491 to Oakland.
7th rounder Yahmed Yema had ridonkulous numbers in college, was John Sickels' sleeper pick, dropped because scouts have questions about how much power he can generate at 6-0, 180.
14th rounder Pedro Alvarez is the big signability drop this year, a HS SS from the Bronx and ~3rd-rd talent
10th rounder Kevin Guyette has some pretty nice K numbers for a late-round college pitcher, apparently has a big curve and very mediocre fastball.
I think Yema's too obvious a fave, what with the stats and the name, so I'm tending toward Guyette. He looks like he has a very high chance at flaming out pathetically, but might have a teensy bit of upside.
How can you say that, Mikael?
I mean, the very idea of Yema being a sleeper is ridonkulous.
DB
THE SLEEPER
Yahmed Yema, OF, Florida International University
This guy is one of my favorite sleepers. He is hitting .404/.477/.716, 14 homers, 13 doubles, 22 walks, 11 strikeouts in 183 at-bats. More walks than strikeouts is always a good sign. His power production is strong, and he's doing it in a not-particularly friendly offensive context. The combined batting average of the FIU club and their opponents is just .282, so Yema's .404 average is excellent accounting for context. The combined SLG is.405, the combined OBP is .370. Put it together, Yema is playing in an offensive context of a .775 OPS. His own OPS is 1.193, giving him an OPS+ of 54 percent better than league. Yema is a left-handed hitting junior, not a huge guy at 5-11, 185. But he is dominating his competition and has good strike zone judgment. I don't know where he will go in the draft, but I'd like to take a chance on him.
DB
Of all the different ways an amateur's projectability can be questioned, I'm probably most skeptical of the idea that a guy isn't big enough to hit for power, even if he's been hitting for good power where he is. If there's something with his swing, that's one thing, but there are so many smaller power hitters in baseball history that I'm not as sold on the importance of size.
That was my admittedly cryptically worded point. There are many examples of "undersized" guys excelling at sports where size is valued, see Zach Thomas, Teddy Bruschi, uh, Spud Webb. They may be exceptions, but 5-11, 185 isn't really that small (if he has a low body fat, then there's lots of muscle, discounting the possibility of his possessing the high bone mass gene...). Seems like scouts get wowed by a Carved Adonis more than actual performance.
Maybe that's how Gabe Kapler got to where he is... (maybe he had good numbers too, I have no idea.)
DB
Change this to "not be able to show it," and I agree completely.
Also, change it around. Do big and tall types always have power? I can't image that's true.
DB
DB
shifty eyes
Marty Marion say no.
Just wanted to chime in on the draft. I like Hansen a lot and, thinking about it a bit, I think you leave him as a reliever for now to keep his innings down this year, then try him as a starter next year. If after, say 2 years, he's not making it, you then move him back to the pen. I think you really need to find out whether he can dominate as a SP.
On Ellsbury, people here and at SOSH seem pretty down on him. But I see a him as a positive. One, he was rated as a mid-first-rounder and the Sox got him at #23, so even by just conventional wisdom he's a good pick.
On Lowrie, in 2004 Craig Burley ranked his sophmore season as #1 in the country. That's got to count for something.
And Mikael, if you're picking Guyette over Ya Ya Yema as your pet favorite, you're just trying too hard. Yema is the pefect stat-fan-boy-mancrush.
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