Well i'll take the under since I'm pretty sure I heard a 1.5 million figure being thrown around.

I'll take the under.

One, I don't think the Reds dealt so much from what makes an equitable deal, as much as they dealt from what they saw as a surplus (OF) for what they had as a need (SP). I don't think you could count OF as a surplus in Cincinnati, but all the public comments indicated that they were thinking that way. They might have also dealt in fear, what with the Sox "solving" their OF depth by signing Juan Gonzalez 24 hours earlier, and might have thought that signing killed whatever leverage they'd presumed to have over the Sox. In short, I think they're not that bright.

Two, anything over $1 mil (or $2 mil, I don't remember where the line is) needs to be approved by the commissioner, and it's standard for a deal to be made but contingent on this formality. I haven't heard of any such contingency this time around, which suggests to me that the money is under the threshold.

Heralds reports 1.2 million.

vi -

I believe that the commissioner's approval is required on trades where cash is a separate part of the trade. In other words, when cash is part of a trade, but earmarked to pay off a player's salary, that's no problem. The Red Sox ran into issues in 2003 because they traded prospects + cash for Williamson, so that cash was just going right to the Reds. In this trade, where the money goes for Arroyo's salary, it's not an issue, I don't think.

MLB has a stake in preventing teams from simply buying ballplayers from each other, but not in preventing one team from paying down part of their contract to make him more valuable. (An economist might argue that those two things aren't that distinguishable, but I think they are on a pr level, at least.)

My guess is that the Red Sox' financial contribution to this deal will be equal to Arroyo's original 2006 salary, less Wily Mo's 2006 salary. $1.5M sounds almost exactly right. The point will be to keep the Reds payroll at their planned level, I think.

So, over/under on Wily Mo plate appearances? I think 300 is a pretty good guess. I'm skeptical that Francona will create a good rotation system for Wily Mo when everyone's healthy, but Wily Mo is now backing up at least three positions, and one of those is Trot Nixon, so he should get a bunch of regular PT.

anyone else think that wily mo is the 1B solution if mike lowell sucks @ 3b, in which case youks would move to 3rd?

Yes, Kevin.

Incidentally, for those who question my objectivity, I think this was a good Theo move, provided he doesn't do anything daft like trading Manny as a result of it (and I suppose provided Wily Mo's age is accurate.)

anyone else think that wily mo is the 1B solution if mike lowell sucks @ 3b, in which case youks would move to 3rd?

That's what I'm wondering. As Lowell struggles through spring training, I'm getting more and more concerned about him struggling through the season. What worries me most is that he hits say 265/320/400 or something, and he is below average and it is not crushingly obvious that he cannot play. I fear he will be below average with occasional glimpses of averageness that cause Francona to stick with him while he and Gonzalez drag the offense down.

Wily Mo was signed illegally, and had that signing voided, so I think his age is about as certain as you're going to get. His documentation has been investigated in order to void the initial signing (w/ the Mets).

anyone else think that wily mo is the 1B solution if mike lowell sucks @ 3b, in which case youks would move to 3rd?

This is a good question, which hits on one fundamental problem for the 2006 Red Sox. Basically, given the not at all crazy scenario in which both Lowell and Snow have putrefied over the last year, the Sox have only one backup (Youks) for two positions (1B and 3B). That's a problem. Wily Mo is a potential solution.

The problem, of course, is that Wily Mo has never actually played 1B, and it's definitely going to take some time for him to learn the position and for management to be comfortable sending him out there. (You'd hate to see something like Piazza at first, not that anyone could ever be as bad as he was, but that his offensive production suffered significantly because he was putting so much mental and physical effort into developing new defensive skills.)

I see it really as the exact sort of judgement call on which Tito should earn his contract. If Wily Mo has the physical tools for the job, the ability to turn them into skills quickly enough, and the mental/emotional organization such that he'll want to take on the job and not be distracted from his hitting, then it's a good idea. It's the sort of thing that Francona will need to communicate to Wily Mo, to prepare him in case of such a contingency.

(My second paragraph reads as if Snow and Lowell are the presumed starters at the corners and Youkilis is their backup. That's a misarticulation - I think Snow is a reserve and Youks a regular. The general argument above works either way, though.)

Word is Choi might be waived.

Word is Choi might be waived.

Good Lord, why would the Dodgers waive him? (Or do I have the wrong Choi?) Surely he has at least some trade value.

I read that, too, about Choi, and I wish the Sox could pick him up. But presumably some other team will claim him, right? So the Sox would have to offer something in trade (a reliever? though the Dodger bullpen is not as thin as I had thought, after the Sanchez trade). Does Choi still have options? Of course, I'd rather he was on the major league roster, but with Snow around, that doesn't seem likely, unless Lowell gets the boot and Youkilis moves over to 3rd.

On the subject of Pena: in the Dominican Winter League this year, Wily Mo drew 15 BBs in 112 ABs (followed by 0 BBs-- but 4 hits-- in 10 ABs in the WBC). In comparison, he drew 20 BBs in 311 ABs last year. It's a small sample size, of course, and against weaker competition, but Pena did claim to have changed his approach for the better in the DWL: “You’ll see,” he said. “Much different, much better. My swing is better. If I take the same approach I had in the D.R., everybody is going to see. More home runs. I was taking a lot of pitches, not swinging at bad pitches, getting my pitches to hit. And I was hitting balls all over the field.” (That quote is from the Springfield News-Sun.)

I still don't understand why Choi signed that deal. They refused to offer him arbitration, which seriously lowered his salary this year. He was also slated to be a backup, ruining his salary for the following year. He must have had a seriously high comfort level in LA.

And now this, where they are apparently thinking about dropping him--a very useful player--to save $600K or so? If they're willing to do that, someone should offer to take on Choi's full salary and give back a C prospect + cash.

Choi would be a good addition but the corners are getting very crowded, aren't they? You'd have pretty much boot Lowell or Snow off the team to fit him in, right?

Darren, you wouldn't boot Snow for Choi?! I'd kick Snow's shrunked a$$ down a long flight of stairs for far lesser players than Hee.

I'd boot him, yes. But that looks pretty bad and I don't think the Red Sox feel like they can do that.

Choi is going to go? This needs its own thread! I am outraged if this is true!

I'm hugely optimistic about Wily Mo's breakout potential as a hitter. And being around Big Papi can only help his development.

That said, there are a couple of troubling things about this. (1) It's been amply discussed elsewhere, but they Sox once again look fairly cutthroat for using Arroyo's willingness to sign cheaply as a way to get more for him on the trade market. Not that they were contractually obligated to reciprocate in Bronson's "gift exchange," but the fact they refused does them little credit. (2) This might make the Sox more willing to move Manny--as early as June, if Wily shows that breakout potential.

I also like MCA's idea that working Wily out at 1B would be a good move. He apparently has a strong arm, but being 6'3, 245 at age 24 doesn't suggest he'll be rangy in the OF for very long.

It'd be kind of funny if they moved Manny only to replace him with a worse hitter and similar fielder.

On the cutthroat question, I've made this case elsewhere on Primer: Arroyo said at the time of the contract that the Red Sox made very clear that they were not making any assurances that he wouldn't be traded, only that no deal was on the table at that time. He also spoke of taking the deal in order to give himself financial security.

His comments in the Globe today seem to back up what he said at the time. He expresses severe disappointment at leaving Boston but does not say or imply that he was in some way duped.

Overall, I don't think it reflects badly on the Red Sox at all. (Lest you think I am a pure homer, I was really unhappy with the way they handled Nomar's departure.)

If Lowell is mostly toast, maybe we'll see this:

VS Righties
Crisp CF
Loretta 2b
Saviour 1B
Manny DH
Nixon RF
Varitek C
Pena LF
Youks 3B
Sea Bass SS

VS Lefties
Crisp CF
Loretta 2b
American Hero DH
Manny LF
Pena RF
Varitek C
Lowell 3B
Yooks 1B
Sea Bass SS

That lineup could kill lefties.

Overall, I don't think it reflects badly on the Red Sox at all. (Lest you think I am a pure homer, I was really unhappy with the way they handled Nomar's departure.)

Darren, Darren, Darren. Trust me on this one; by any reasonable definition of "homer", you're a huge one.

Versus Southpaws:

Lowell in 05: .304 .362 .478 (in about 100 pa's)

Loretta in 05: .309 .426 .362 (in about 115 pa's. all singles and walks)
Loretta in 04: .352 .431 .505 (about 210 pa's)

pena in 05: .291 .345 .536 (120 pa's)

Tek' in 05: .320 .418 .582 (145)

Nixon in 05: .224 .333 .306 (100)
Sea Bass in 05: Blecchh, even worse than Nixon.

Darren, Darren, Darren. Trust me on this one; by any reasonable definition of "homer", you're a huge one.

There are different kinds of homers, though. There are the "front office is the team" homers, the "front office can do no right I just love the players" homers. Boston's sports media are "I don't like the front office, the players, or the whole game, really" homers, a kind of homer which may be unique to East Coast cities.

I don't think the Sox would dump Snow, well, no matter how well he performs. I think with the Arroyo trade, the Sox can't afford to appear to heartlessly cut another player (whose father just died, and from what I've heard is respected in the clubhouse) even though he hasn't even played for the team yet. I think they could trade Snow and it would be ok, but no one's going to give up anything for him.

I think in order for Choi or maybe Craig Wilson to make the team, not only would Snow have to suck totally and unquestionably both offensively and defensively, but Lowell would ALSO have to suck pretty hard as well, forcing Youks across the diamond and opening up 1B. As much as I would prefer Choi or Wilson to Snow, I just can't root for the scenario I described, which is probably the only way the Sox would make that move at this point.

1) On Wily Mo as a possible successor to Manny as Big Righty Bopper: there are very few players who would be the equal of Manny as a hitter. It's a foregone conclusion that if/when this divorce happens, the Sox will lose some offense; the question is how much. Defensively, I doubt Wily Mo is "similar," though he's certainly below average and (as mentioned earlier) given his build is likely to get worse, at least range-wise. So it'd be nice to find out if he's got dancin' feet and soft hands, enabling a switch to 1B.

2) In defense of Darren, he said he's not a pure homer, and that's absolutely true. He certainly leans the Sox way, but he's open to reason on analysis of the team. (His electrified third rail, however, is Letting Clemens Go. Danger!)

3) On the cutthroat issue, I agree about the legalities, Darren (though I read Arroyo's comments about the players being "chess pieces" in a different way--as an indictment of the FO's coldness). My point about "gift exchange" is like this, however: Suppose you go to a restaurant and enjoy exceptional service, and then you stiff the waitress. You'd be right to argue you're not contractually obligated to tip her--but most people would say that's pretty cutthroat. I don't think this is wildly different. I would further argue that the FO's "cutthroat culture" was part of the reason for the Theo Follies this off-season. Ultimately, it might work (at least in the short run) as a management philosophy, but if/when it fails, expect a lot of people to be cheering on the sidelines.

I think in order for Choi or maybe Craig Wilson to make the team, not only would Snow have to suck totally and unquestionably both offensively and defensively, but Lowell would ALSO have to suck pretty hard as well, forcing Youks across the diamond and opening up 1B.

Alternatively, they could get rid of Youkilis. Not something that anyone seems to be proposing, but it's certainly worth mentioning.

"I think with the Arroyo trade, the Sox can't afford to appear to heartlessly cut another player (whose father just died, and from what I've heard is respected in the clubhouse) even though he hasn't even played for the team yet."

I doubt they'll get rid of Snow, but I think the Arroyo trade demonstrates they'll do what it takes to make the team better. Are any Sox fans actually attached to Snow already? And the Sox haven't even taken that much flack in the local media for cutting Arroyo. Most Globe stories, for instance, have been about how exciting Wily Mo is.

As for getting rid of Youkilis, that seems illogical. He is most likely underrated by most GMs out there, simply because he hasn't had the opportunity to prove himself. So you wouldn't get much value for him, he doesn't cost much... He still has options, doesn't he? If anything, they could just stash him in AAA (not that he'd love that, nor do I think that's a very good idea).

Re: the Front office and cut-throat...

This is the same FO that picked Arroyo from the scrap heap (afterall, waived by the Pirates and passed on by virtually all tams) and gave him a very important role on a WS team. (Ditto re: Millar) Using players as chess pieces is very good when it puts the player in a position to do well. It helped Arroyo earn several million dollars, advance himself in a career that he likes (or multiple ones, really), and put him in a position to have interesting pictures taken with him and NorthEastern college students...

This is not to say that Arroyo should be happy to get what the gets and he doesn't have a right (moral or ethical, not legal) to anything more. This is just an attempt to broaden the viewpoint. We shouldn't be looking at the team's treatment of Arroyo at the end, only, but rather be looking at the complete story.

I agree that it was not "nice" to trade Arroyo after he signed an extension and expressed that he wanted to be here forever. I'd prefer they not do it. But, they do "owe" the fans as much as they "owe" the employees - and this trade helps the team get better, therefore it helps the fans who want to see a winning team.

(The scare quotes are merely there to denote that morality in business is a tricky thing -- I do think that the team "owes" its fans and its employees. I believe that businesses should be moral actors, but the stakeholders in that morality game are pretty diverse and the correct moral move is pretty complicated at times.)

Greetings from Sanibel Island, Fl.

I went to the game on Tuesday. the wind was blowing straight out, very briskly. Hence all the homers. The ones Loretta and Cora hit were cheapies, warning track flies that got out. Ortiz hit a typical moonshot and manny's was a laser. both were legit in any park.

Wells looked just fair. He got burned by the wind but was hit pretty hard too. Lester was awful. Everything was hit hard, even the outs. It seemed like he was telegraphing his pitches, because his stuff looked pretty good.

Regarding Lowell, he played very well. He made all the plays hit to him and had a couple of hits. The play of the day was made by Gonzalez though, one-handing a tweener that Lowell deflected in the air and throwing out the runner in a single motion. Great play.

Got to see Wily Mo's first AB in a Sox uni. He got a nice hand.

Dinardo looked very good. He had all the hitters off-balance with his breaking stuff. Delcarmen blew 2 hitters away with heat.


City of Palms is a beautiful park. We parked for free across the street in a church parking lot.

All in all, a great time. Believer me, Lowell will be fine. He might not flash as much power as he used to but he has a strong glove and can get his bat on the ball.

That's a bad job by you not going to the minor league camp, Kevin. You're not on vacation. You are there to work.

OK, maybe I'll post this in a more active thread this time...

Fenway To Host Minor-League Doubleheader August 26

Tickets go on sale this Saturday (March 25). Prices are between $5 and $30 for the single-admission doubleheader.

Might I suggest a Primer Meetup?

I'm only bringing it up because I heard about the ticket sales being this Saturday. I'm away that weekend in August, so I won't be able to go... but it sounds like it could be a good time, especially for those interested in Sox prospects.

Josh: Sound points on the "cutthroat FO" issue. I think we're mostly in agreement; I was just trying to represent some subtleties apart from the legalities. Morally, IMHO, the team is totally in the clear if (and we'll never know) they simply represented to Arroyo at the time of his signing that his home-town discount would/could not affect their plans to trade him. Effectively, if they signaled they were declining an offered gift at the time of the offer, no problem; Bronson then could, with full info, make his next move.

Kevin: Thanks for the scouting report (but of course you've made the rest of us extremely jealous). It'd be especially nice to feel more optimistic about Lowell. He's gonna be around a while (given his contract), so how well he hits will be key. And I'm kinda hoping when he sees the Green Monster, he'll figure out how to take advantage...

I was expecting much more outrage from either the media or the fans about the Arroyo trade, so I pretty much went ahead with the assumption that that is what happened (hey, it works for the government!). Maybe they could dump Snow easily. I still doubt it would happen, but it now seems like the Red Sox wouldn't take as much of a PR hit as I thought they might have a day or two ago.

Hearing that Lowell is at least showing a few signs of life is encouraging.

City of Palms is a beautiful park.

Damn skippy. Only place I ever saw Pedro pitch in person, too. I think they were playing the Reds, and he made them look like Cinci had just rounded up a bunch of neighborhood kids and let them try to hit against a pro.

The Toronto Star has a theory that the Sox added Pena in large part to help the Sox in their 19 games against the LHP-heavy Jays.

I don't buy the Star's theory, but I love the confidence that it projects. It's good for baseball to have Blue Jays fans coming up with explanations for outside events that are as delusionally solipsistic as anything a Sox or Yankee fan could envision.

The Wily Mo trade really doesn't add a ton of value right now, arguably hardly any. It's for the benefit (and possible upside of the benefit) over the next 3-5 years that the Red Sox made this trade.

MCA,

You don't think the injury protection, righty-masher provides value? As SG said of the projections he ran, it adds about a win and a half this year, that's pretty solid.

The Wily Mo trade adds a little immediate value as a better platoon partner for Nixon and adds great potential for after Nixon leaves, but I don't think you can overlook the fact that it also reduces Boston's risk for this season.

If Nixon, Manny or Ortiz got hurt with the roster as contructed last week, the Red Sox would have had to fill in with Dustan Mohr. Now if any of them get hurt, Pena's the fill-in (and maybe Mohr's still around to platoon with Nixon if he's not the one who gets hurt).

While Pena's clearly not as good as Manny or Ortiz (and maybe not even as good overall as Nixon), he's also clearly a much better option to have as a longterm injury replacement than Mohr.

You don't think the injury protection, righty-masher provides value? As SG said of the projections he ran, it adds about a win and a half this year, that's pretty solid.

I only said "arguably," though.

I think there's a case to be made that the age and brittleness of the Red Sox rotation made the loss of Arroyo a pretty significant downgrade. It depends.

I tend to think Wily Mo adds about a win this year, but I think that's well with the range of "arguable."

If Nixon, Manny or Ortiz got hurt with the roster as contructed last week, the Red Sox would have had to fill in with Dustan Mohr. Now if any of them get hurt, Pena's the fill-in (and maybe Mohr's still around to platoon with Nixon if he's not the one who gets hurt).

i';m really playing devil's advocate here, because I like this trade for 2006. (And, of course, I love it for 2007-2009).

But the case would be -

Curt Schilling: might be done
Keith Foulke: might be done, which could require Papelbon in the bullpen
Josh Beckett: not the healthiest kid in the world
David Wells: fat jerk

Lenny Dinardo: does his stuff translate? should we be projecting off his ERA or his RA?
Jon Lester: how much can we count on him taking the developmental steps that would make him a major leaguer by July?

The Sox seem to have more issues in their rotation than the average team, which makes a durable, 100-110 ERA+ guy like Arroyo a more valuable piece for them than it might seem at first glance.

Speaking of Mohr (sort of), some Tiger beat writer has repoted that the Tigers may trade Carlos Pena, and may be interested in a lefty reliever:

"The Tigers would like to identify a second left-handed reliever. They have a few possibilities in camp, and they're said to have some interest in trading for Philadelphia's Rheal Cormier (who makes $2.5 million, and had a 5.89 ERA and .296 opponents batting average last year)."

For those who have not yet connected the dots, I will quote a SoSH poster's straightforward scenario:

To Boston: Pena
To Philadelphia: Mohr
To Detroit: Cormier

Not sure why Detroit would be interested in Cormier, but if so, I could see them swapping Pena for him, given that there are also reports he might get released. And I could also see Philly giving up Cormier for Mohr, as they reportedly want a 4th OF and Cormier really isn't that good anymore. So this trade scenario strikes me as at least somewhat feasible and extremely appealing. Does Pena have options left?

Whatever would be the point of Carlos Pena? Just another blockage in the way of Youkilis, Wily Mo, Pedroia, Ellsbury and other brave noble fearless young stars with huge upsides.

The disappointing thing about Pena is that he was touted as a slick fielder as a prospect, but his ZRs usually have been below average.

The attractive things about him are (a) can he be less useful than Snow? (b) he's entering his age-27 season, (c) this from '05:
Pre-All Star 127 ABs, 3 HRs, .181/.307/.283
Post-All Star 133 ABs, 15 HRs, .286/.345/.662. Fluke? Or finally getting it?

Of course, the fact that so many of us are chewing on Options Other Than Snow, and how many might be in play (Choi, C.Wilson, Pena), is one of the reasons that committing a roster spot and $$$ to such fodder in winter was kinda foolish.

Well, I'm skeptical that "some interest" = "will trade Pena for him straight up." That'd be really, really weird on the Tigers part. Dustan Mohr is hardly much of an established 4th OF, anyway, after sucking so bad last year. He's just an NRI.

It doesn't really compute from most any angle. Generally, if a trade is proposed in which the Red Sox give up nothing of value and get something of value, odds are against it.

Pena's 28 in May; there's really not a huge upside. Much better to get a AA "prospect" who has a chance of becoming a player who can really help the club, instead of a fungible spare part. A lifetime BA of .243 isn't going to cut it at 1B, partuclarly as there's the danger of him blocking Youkilis.

OleP has nicely summed up the attraction to Pena. As to who he would block: so far, the Red Sox have expressed little inclination to actually try Wily Mo at 1B; not sure how Pedroia and Ellsbury factor in here, so I assume that was sort of a joke. Nonetheless, if they did pick up someone, he'd probably have to have options left, unless they're willing to dump Snow (unlikely) or Lowell (maybe, I think, but still far from likely).

In any case, I think the difference between km's and MCoA's responses shows why that trade is not totally crazy: Detroit may value Pena as km does (less than a AA "prospect"; possibly releasing him suggests they do not value him highly) while Boston could value him like MCoA ("something of value").

With Dimitri Young and Chris Shelton, the Tigers don't really want to pay Pena 2.8m next year. They might trade him for a reliever.

Would Philly not give up Cormier for an ok 4th OF? He's not actually good, so maybe.

Maybe the Sox have to give up more, but I doubt it would take much. On the other hand, maybe Choi's available, and more appealing. It's not only Snow who's less than inspiring; Lowell, too, is cause for concern. The Sox hardly seem set at the corners.

With Dimitri Young and Chris Shelton, the Tigers don't really want to pay Pena 2.8m next year. They might trade him for a reliever.

Would Philly not give up Cormier for an ok 4th OF? He's not actually good, so maybe.

This is the issue for me. Someone in this line has to make a significant mis-evaluation for the trade to work. Let's allow that Pena has value - otherwise, we don't want the Sox to make this trade and we haven't constructed it out of whole cloth on the internets.

Either Cormier sucks and the Tigers are stupid, or Cormier doesn't suck and the Phillies are stupid. Dustan Mohr is definitely a non-entity here.

If you are going to go through all the effort to completely make up a trade, I think you are bound to assume that every team involved is making reasonable evaluations. If you don't follow that assumption, you can create any trade you want at all.

Another way of looking at it:

Let's again assume that Pena is a good player. Let's further accept the broadest reading of the rumor, that Detroit is just itchin' to dump Pena for Rheal Cormier.

In that case, with Philadelphia owning a valuable player in Pena, why do they give him up for Dustan Mohr? They can't do better than an NRI having a hot spring?

Not to suggest that the 3-way under discussion is plausible, but on the topic of "reasonable evaluations"...

At this stage of ST, it might be fruitful to distinguish a player's on-field value and his net economic value. As O.D. nears, I expect we'll see some deals that are very puzzling from an on-field perspective, but which are explicable only as ways for teams to save a few hundred thou (or even a couple mil).

In thin markets and with roster spots constrained, I expect at least a few unexpected and superficially "unreasonable" deals over the next week or so.

E.g., there is no effing way Littlefield wants Craig Wilson around as a $3.3M part-time corner guy, so he'll probably accept little or nothing in "on-field return" to avoid that $$$ loss. Dunno whether Dombrowski has reached the same conclusion about Pena, but maybe...

The problem remains in both those cases, however, that we have a Snow Drift bocking our path to a possible minor improvement.

Fair enough, MCoA. I can't really defend that scenario convincingly.

I do think, though, that OleP makes an excellent point about cash considerations-- and, I would add, the context of particular roster's constructions.

Craig Wilson is a solid player. But given both the Pirates' roster and their budget, they may not want him around. Same goes, potentially, for Pena. Given how diappointing Pena has been, and the fact that he's no longer cheap, the list of suitors would, I think, be relatively short. Not every team can take an expensive flyer on upside.

Of course it's silly (but fun!) to concoct unreasonably beneficial trade scenarios. But this time of year may present certain pressing considerations that lead to situational imbalances that can be exploited by a savvy (and wealthy) team. (I'm thinking partly of Ortiz here, though, thanks to Google, I know that he was released on January 22. So maybe I'm wrong about this time of year.)

(I also agree with OleP, of course, that this may all be moot, given the presence of Snow and Lowell, and the fact that these guys are really only potential improvements, not certain ones.)

Carlos Pena comes from a big local NE family where all the kids are like, brain surgeons and rocket scientists and the like, real achievers, so he is thought of as a bright, coachable, youngish guy. The Brass likes those types. I like his career path a lot.