Red Sox Top 20 Prospects Part 1
It’s the middle of winter and there’s not much going on in the baseball world, so I thought it would be a good time to try something new on Sox Therapy. I’ve asked our very own Temple to compile his list of the Red Sox top 20 prospects. Temple, as many of you already know, is sort of our go to guy here on the state of the Red Sox minor league system, so it seemed like a good fit. I have enjoyed reading these, and I hope you do too. Part 1 is below, with three more installments to come over the next couple weeks. --Darren
20. Jed Lowrie (SS); b. 4/17/84: Perhaps the biggest disappointment of the Sox 2006 minor league season was Jed Lowrie. Lowrie was Boston’s supplemental pick in 2005, out of Stanford. After getting off to a slow start, Lowrie was plagued by a number of injuries that slowed his progress throughout the season. He did finish the season on a positive note, hitting .327/.380/.529 in his final month. He did display adequate enough range and arm at SS that he will not need to be moved off the position anytime soon. Lowrie will have to start the season in high-A Lancaster, where he will try to build on his strong finish to 06.
Wilmington- 374 AB’s, .262/.352/.374, 54/65 BB/K
19. Kris Negron (SS); b. 2/1/86: One of the most dynamic players in the organization, Negron tops the admittedly shallow SS depth chart. Allan Simpson rated Negron, a 7th round pick this previous draft, the 25th best JuCo player in the country coming out of Consumnes College. The Sox organization believes Negron can be a plus defender and hit for moderate power and average while staying at SS. The day after winning the GCL championship, Negron headlined the Futures at Fenway game by making two spectacular defensive plays to preserve the lead in the 9th.
GCL Red Sox- 142 AB’s, .261/.340/.373, 12/20 BB/K
Lowell- 28 AB’s, .393/.485/.536, 4/2 BB/K
18. Edgar Martinez (P); b. 10/23/81: A converted catcher, Martinez regressed from the progress he made in 2005. His fastball lacked its previous bite and his velocity dropped from the mid- to the low-90’s. The development expected from Martinez’s breaking balls didn’t fully materialize and some questions have arisen about his ability to be anything more than a thrower. He did show improved control and a willingness to take the ball with the game on the line. Martinez will most likely start the year in Portland, looking to live up to the initial expectations Sox fans had for him.
Portland- 69 IP, 51 H, 59/18 K/BB, 9 HR, 2.61 ERA
17. Jon Egan (C); b. 10/12/86: A 20-year old catcher drafted in the 2nd round of the 2005 Draft, Egan ran into legal problems the off season after his first summer of professional baseball. After straightening out these matters and apologizing to his entire team prior to the year, Egan was allowed to return. Egan heated up after a slow start with the GCL Sox, and his OPS increased each month: from .522 to .864 to 1.016. A 6’4” frame with a solid build, Egan possesses some of the best pure power in the system. Although he was praised for his surprisingly adept glove-work last year, Egan has a long way to go to refine his actions behind the plate. He should split time at DH and catcher in Greenville in 2007.
GCL Sox- 127 AB’s, .339/.400/.559, 13/36 BB/K
Lowell- 12 AB’s, .083/.214/.167, 1/5 BB/K
16. Felix Doubront (P); b. 10/23/87: “The Prince” made great strides in his first year in the U.S. Doubront was signed as an international league FA in 2004 for $150,000. In 2005, he had a stellar season in the VSL, where he led the league with a 0.97 ERA, and was named the Sox Latin Pitcher of the Year. Pitching in the GCL in 2006, Doubront held a respectable 2.52 ERA in 53.2 IP. Working off of a high-80’s to low-90’s fastball, he uses his advanced breaking and off-speed pitches to fool lower-level hitters. The Sox had enough faith in him as an 18-year old to call him up to Lowell and let him face collegiate hitters. Though he saw his ERA nearly double, the experience gave him a glimpse of what hitters will be like at the next level. Because of his 6’2” frame, there is room for projection, and he will need his fastball to stay consistently in the lower-90’s to succeed as an innings eater at the 2 or 3 spot. Doubront will likely start the year in Greenville as a 19-year old.
GCL Sox- 53.2 IP, 41, 36/13, 6 HR, 2.52 ERA
Lowell- 11 IP, 7 H, 7/3 K/BB, 1 HR, 4.91 ERA
Darren
Posted: January 11, 2007 at 06:16 PM |
23 comment(s)
Related News:
Boston
Reader Comments and Retorts
Go to end of page
Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.
I guess I'm willing to accept that in a #16 prospect in a kinda eh system, now that I've talked it out, but I wanted to be clear that's what we're seeing in Doubront. yeah?
And on Egan - I thought just a year ago everyone was raving about his ability behind the plate? It's hard not to see the amazing inverse relation between a catcher's bat and his glove.
Nice writeups overall especially noting Martinez regresson last year. I think one of the reasons that people overrate prospects is because they get a positive snapshot of a player - like Martinez' generally positive reports last winter - and then they lock in on that snapshot even if the player starts to go backward which Martinez seems to have.
He's ranked #20 in a good--not great--system. Is that some kind of high praise? I agree, though, that his stats aren't very exciting. I'd rather have seen Natale sneak in here, but I realize that that is probably my bias toward underdogs.
If I hear next season that Natale's defense improves, my opinion of him will change. But, while I like his bat, the reports on his defense are too brutal to trust him right now.
Negron is just faith/sleeper pick. I'm going on instinct there. I'm sure there are people you can argue in over him (Kyle Jackson, Mark Wagner), but no one worth worrying about.
#20 is Lowrie, who I still think is a prospect. I think the injuries slowed him down last year quite a bit. He still controls the strike zone well, and hit very well in August, including 9 2B. I suspect he'll have a strong showing in high A next year.
Thanks for the work here, Temple. By the way, what are your sources? How broad a base of opinions are you working from in writing these up, and how much of your own observation is involved?
His upside lies in his already present "pitchability" in combination with advanced pitches for an 18-year old in combination with a projectable frame.
My sources are basically what you would expect: season ticket holders to the minor league affiliates, first-hand observers, what I see in first person, what I can pull from Mike Hazen, and all the prospect reviews from great sites like Baseball America, Minorleagueball.com, Scout.com, etc.
Kris Negron is kind of a trendy deep-sleeper pick, but I wouldn't place him as high as #19. He's gotten surprisingly good scouting reviews for a 7th round draft pick, but for a guy with that kind of draft pedigree, I want to see some results in full season ball before I hop aboard the bandwagon. Unfortunately he's the best we have to offer at SS (I don't see how Lowrie could possibly stick at SS), but hopefully Moises Tejada will make some waves at that position in the next two years.
As an aside, does anyone want to move down to Greenville for the summer with me?
C Jon Egan
1B Lars Anderson
2B Chih-Hsien Chiang
SS Kris Negron
3B Manny Arambarris
RF Jason Place
CF Ryan Kalish
LF Carlos Fernandez
DH Mike Jones
That team is going to mash.
21. Mark Wagner
22. Chih-Hsien Chiang
23. Kyle Jackson
24. Aaron Bates
25. Ryan Kalish
We hope.
Well, that team's average age is 26, they'd better mash.
Btw, Kevin Goldstein had his BoSox top 10 list recently:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5798
Excellent Prospects
1. Clay Buchholz, rhp
Very Good Prospects
2. Jacoby Ellsbury, cf
3. Michael Bowden, rhp
Good Prospects
4. Jason Place, cf
5. Daniel Bard, rhp
6. Bryce Cox, rhp
Average Prospects
7. Dustin Pedroia, 2b
8. Craig Hansen, rhp
9. Kris Johnson, lhp
10. Justin Masterson, rhp
Dustin has slipped all the way to average. I won't bring up Goldstein's assessment of Callaspo.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5694
I don't get it.
E.P.P., it was supposed to be a snark about some of the BoSox prospects (i.e., Natale, Pedroia) being a bit too old and too polished in college while in low A ball, and thus "mashing".
In other words, more of my usual inanity.
Except you will, and you did.
What's your point anyways? Did anyone even mention Pedroia?
Oh, Ok. The oldest player on that list is 21 and not one of them went to a 4-year college. If that really is the lineup for the Drive, I would be surprised if it wasn't the youngest team in the SAL.
Incidentally, the Red Sox do have quite a bit of very young (maybe underrated because of it?) players in the system. It'll take time to sort them out, but Peter Gammons will be a very happy guy in a couple of years...
Btw, in the Goldstein article I referred to, he mentions that the Red Sox are most likely going to skip Buchholz directly to AA to save him from the California League and Lancaster. I'm guessing this will prompt Kevin to write a long letter to Theo Epstein, explaining how Buchholz should be subjected to the harshness of the CAL league, so that he could experience difficulty and build his stamina and character. Because we all know that if he failed in Lancaster, he wouldn't have the cojones to succeed in the majors...
[/end rant]
Also for those that enjoy birthdateology... our new #1 and #5 hitters are born 2 days before and two days after our #3 hitter. Maybe the Sox just really like the Karma brought by that #3 hitter...
There will be scant players on this list, I imagine, who have a pro track record of success. That is just how things are right now, though some of these players could still move quickly (eg, Bard & Cox).
Only 1 player on the BPro list has more than 1 full-year of pro ball. For comparison's sake (and without trying to re-summon Levski), all but 3 of the AZ Bpro top 10 list has more than 1 full-year of pro ball.
That is one upside-heavy list from Goldstein. Buchholz a full level above Ellsbury? Cox, Place, and Bard a full level above Pedroia? There's basically no weight given to how much chance a player has at being average in MLB. That's a valid methodology, but it's certainly striking.
The Marlins continue to explore trades for young center fielders, focusing on the Red Sox's David Murphy, Indians' Franklin Gutierrez and Devil Rays' B.J. Upton and Elijah Dukes.
Murphy is an interesting target; one scout calls him a "sleeper," believing that he eventually will hit for power. The Rays rejected an Upton-for-Ricky Nolasco deal earlier this off-season. Talks between the teams currently are dormant.
What would they give for Murphy? I'll take it!
I won't. If the Marlins think he's good, he mustbe!
You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.
<< Back to main