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Thursday, January 11, 2007

Red Sox Top 20 Prospects Part 1

It’s the middle of winter and there’s not much going on in the baseball world, so I thought it would be a good time to try something new on Sox Therapy. I’ve asked our very own Temple to compile his list of the Red Sox top 20 prospects. Temple, as many of you already know, is sort of our go to guy here on the state of the Red Sox minor league system, so it seemed like a good fit. I have enjoyed reading these, and I hope you do too. Part 1 is below, with three more installments to come over the next couple weeks. --Darren


20. Jed Lowrie (SS); b. 4/17/84: Perhaps the biggest disappointment of the Sox 2006 minor league season was Jed Lowrie.  Lowrie was Boston’s supplemental pick in 2005, out of Stanford.  After getting off to a slow start, Lowrie was plagued by a number of injuries that slowed his progress throughout the season.  He did finish the season on a positive note, hitting .327/.380/.529 in his final month.  He did display adequate enough range and arm at SS that he will not need to be moved off the position anytime soon. Lowrie will have to start the season in high-A Lancaster, where he will try to build on his strong finish to 06. 

Wilmington- 374 AB’s, .262/.352/.374, 54/65 BB/K


19. Kris Negron (SS); b. 2/1/86: One of the most dynamic players in the organization, Negron tops the admittedly shallow SS depth chart.  Allan Simpson rated Negron, a 7th round pick this previous draft, the 25th best JuCo player in the country coming out of Consumnes College.  The Sox organization believes Negron can be a plus defender and hit for moderate power and average while staying at SS.  The day after winning the GCL championship, Negron headlined the Futures at Fenway game by making two spectacular defensive plays to preserve the lead in the 9th. 

GCL Red Sox- 142 AB’s, .261/.340/.373, 12/20 BB/K
Lowell- 28 AB’s, .393/.485/.536, 4/2 BB/K


18. Edgar Martinez (P); b. 10/23/81: A converted catcher, Martinez regressed from the progress he made in 2005.  His fastball lacked its previous bite and his velocity dropped from the mid- to the low-90’s.  The development expected from Martinez’s breaking balls didn’t fully materialize and some questions have arisen about his ability to be anything more than a thrower.  He did show improved control and a willingness to take the ball with the game on the line.  Martinez will most likely start the year in Portland, looking to live up to the initial expectations Sox fans had for him.

Portland- 69 IP, 51 H, 59/18 K/BB, 9 HR, 2.61 ERA


17. Jon Egan (C); b. 10/12/86: A 20-year old catcher drafted in the 2nd round of the 2005 Draft, Egan ran into legal problems the off season after his first summer of professional baseball.  After straightening out these matters and apologizing to his entire team prior to the year, Egan was allowed to return. Egan heated up after a slow start with the GCL Sox, and his OPS increased each month: from .522 to .864 to 1.016.  A 6’4” frame with a solid build, Egan possesses some of the best pure power in the system. Although he was praised for his surprisingly adept glove-work last year, Egan has a long way to go to refine his actions behind the plate.  He should split time at DH and catcher in Greenville in 2007.

GCL Sox- 127 AB’s, .339/.400/.559, 13/36 BB/K
Lowell- 12 AB’s, .083/.214/.167, 1/5 BB/K


16. Felix Doubront (P); b. 10/23/87: “The Prince” made great strides in his first year in the U.S.  Doubront was signed as an international league FA in 2004 for $150,000.  In 2005, he had a stellar season in the VSL, where he led the league with a 0.97 ERA, and was named the Sox Latin Pitcher of the Year. Pitching in the GCL in 2006, Doubront held a respectable 2.52 ERA in 53.2 IP.  Working off of a high-80’s to low-90’s fastball, he uses his advanced breaking and off-speed pitches to fool lower-level hitters.  The Sox had enough faith in him as an 18-year old to call him up to Lowell and let him face collegiate hitters.  Though he saw his ERA nearly double, the experience gave him a glimpse of what hitters will be like at the next level.  Because of his 6’2” frame, there is room for projection, and he will need his fastball to stay consistently in the lower-90’s to succeed as an innings eater at the 2 or 3 spot.  Doubront will likely start the year in Greenville as a 19-year old.

GCL Sox- 53.2 IP, 41, 36/13, 6 HR, 2.52 ERA
Lowell- 11 IP, 7 H, 7/3 K/BB, 1 HR, 4.91 ERA

Darren Posted: January 11, 2007 at 06:16 PM | 23 comment(s)
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   1. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: January 11, 2007 at 08:59 PM (#2278987)
Can someone explain Doubront to me? It seems like the case for him has very little to do with (a) his results or (b) his stuff. Both are nice, but no more than a bunch of high schoolers are capable of / throwing. The key statement above, then, is that he's 18, tall, and projectible. The stuff and pitchability are good enough now that if his pitches improve with time as scouts expect, he can be a good prospect.

I guess I'm willing to accept that in a #16 prospect in a kinda eh system, now that I've talked it out, but I wanted to be clear that's what we're seeing in Doubront. yeah?

And on Egan - I thought just a year ago everyone was raving about his ability behind the plate? It's hard not to see the amazing inverse relation between a catcher's bat and his glove.
   2. philly Posted: January 11, 2007 at 09:05 PM (#2278991)
That seems pretty reasonable. If Lowrie really can stay at SS, then I think you can argue he should be over Negron and Martinez. And hell, given the attrition of GCL catchers and pitchers maybe over Egan and Doubront too.

Nice writeups overall especially noting Martinez regresson last year. I think one of the reasons that people overrate prospects is because they get a positive snapshot of a player - like Martinez' generally positive reports last winter - and then they lock in on that snapshot even if the player starts to go backward which Martinez seems to have.
   3. Darren Posted: January 11, 2007 at 10:07 PM (#2279022)
Can someone explain Doubront to me?

He's ranked #20 in a good--not great--system. Is that some kind of high praise? I agree, though, that his stats aren't very exciting. I'd rather have seen Natale sneak in here, but I realize that that is probably my bias toward underdogs.
   4. Templeusox has Red-State Street Cred Posted: January 11, 2007 at 10:21 PM (#2279029)
You can argue that Doubront doesn't deserve to be where he is on the list off numbers alone. However, I like him because 1)He has shown flashes of dominance, not steady mediocrity 2)The Sox believe in his upside and maturity 3)He is projectable, but he also has an advanced understanding of how to pitch.

If I hear next season that Natale's defense improves, my opinion of him will change. But, while I like his bat, the reports on his defense are too brutal to trust him right now.

Negron is just faith/sleeper pick. I'm going on instinct there. I'm sure there are people you can argue in over him (Kyle Jackson, Mark Wagner), but no one worth worrying about.
   5. Darren Posted: January 11, 2007 at 10:44 PM (#2279045)
Oops, he's actually #16, not #20.

#20 is Lowrie, who I still think is a prospect. I think the injuries slowed him down last year quite a bit. He still controls the strike zone well, and hit very well in August, including 9 2B. I suspect he'll have a strong showing in high A next year.
   6. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: January 11, 2007 at 11:16 PM (#2279062)
You can argue that Doubront doesn't deserve to be where he is on the list off numbers alone.
Or on his stuff, right? That's more the point I was making - he throws ~90 and his breaking stuff is "advanced", but not "plus". Now, as I said, Doubront is #16 in a pretty eh system, so any upside at all justifies the ranking, and I don't dispute that Doubront has upside. I'm just trying to nail it down, that the upside is in his youth, height, and whatever other elements of projectibility are irreducible to that.

Thanks for the work here, Temple. By the way, what are your sources? How broad a base of opinions are you working from in writing these up, and how much of your own observation is involved?
   7. Darren Posted: January 11, 2007 at 11:20 PM (#2279066)
Somehow, MC, I missed the entire 2nd paragraph of your first post. I'm dumb.
   8. Templeusox has Red-State Street Cred Posted: January 11, 2007 at 11:46 PM (#2279083)
I'm just trying to nail it down, that the upside is in his youth, height, and whatever other elements of projectibility are irreducible to that.

His upside lies in his already present "pitchability" in combination with advanced pitches for an 18-year old in combination with a projectable frame.
By the way, what are your sources? How broad a base of opinions are you working from in writing these up, and how much of your own observation is involved?

My sources are basically what you would expect: season ticket holders to the minor league affiliates, first-hand observers, what I see in first person, what I can pull from Mike Hazen, and all the prospect reviews from great sites like Baseball America, Minorleagueball.com, Scout.com, etc.
   9. Balerion Posted: January 12, 2007 at 01:44 AM (#2279133)
Doubront's success on the mound is really what's pushed him ahead of other "projectability" guys. He's pitched very well over two years displaying good control. If the fastball gains even 3-4 mph, he'll start looking really good. Given his frame, he's just as good a bet to gain velocity on his fastball as a HS fireballer is to learn secondary pitches and/or control. He's #17 in my personal top 20, so clearly my opinion on him doesn't differ from Temple's all that much.

Kris Negron is kind of a trendy deep-sleeper pick, but I wouldn't place him as high as #19. He's gotten surprisingly good scouting reviews for a 7th round draft pick, but for a guy with that kind of draft pedigree, I want to see some results in full season ball before I hop aboard the bandwagon. Unfortunately he's the best we have to offer at SS (I don't see how Lowrie could possibly stick at SS), but hopefully Moises Tejada will make some waves at that position in the next two years.


As an aside, does anyone want to move down to Greenville for the summer with me?

C Jon Egan
1B Lars Anderson
2B Chih-Hsien Chiang
SS Kris Negron
3B Manny Arambarris
RF Jason Place
CF Ryan Kalish
LF Carlos Fernandez
DH Mike Jones

That team is going to mash.
   10. Templeusox has Red-State Street Cred Posted: January 12, 2007 at 02:11 AM (#2279145)
FTR:

21. Mark Wagner
22. Chih-Hsien Chiang
23. Kyle Jackson
24. Aaron Bates
25. Ryan Kalish
   11. bibigon Posted: January 12, 2007 at 02:31 AM (#2279162)
That team is going to mash.


We hope.
   12. 1k5v3L Posted: January 12, 2007 at 02:41 AM (#2279166)
That team is going to mash.


Well, that team's average age is 26, they'd better mash.

Btw, Kevin Goldstein had his BoSox top 10 list recently:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5798

Excellent Prospects
1. Clay Buchholz, rhp
Very Good Prospects
2. Jacoby Ellsbury, cf
3. Michael Bowden, rhp
Good Prospects
4. Jason Place, cf
5. Daniel Bard, rhp
6. Bryce Cox, rhp
Average Prospects
7. Dustin Pedroia, 2b
8. Craig Hansen, rhp
9. Kris Johnson, lhp
10. Justin Masterson, rhp

Dustin has slipped all the way to average. I won't bring up Goldstein's assessment of Callaspo.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5694
   13. Templeusox has Red-State Street Cred Posted: January 12, 2007 at 02:51 AM (#2279168)

Well, that team's average age is 26, they'd better mash.

I don't get it.
   14. 1k5v3L Posted: January 12, 2007 at 02:59 AM (#2279171)
Fast internet connection --> typing without thinking --> Darren in heaven

E.P.P., it was supposed to be a snark about some of the BoSox prospects (i.e., Natale, Pedroia) being a bit too old and too polished in college while in low A ball, and thus "mashing".

In other words, more of my usual inanity.
   15. bibigon Posted: January 12, 2007 at 03:01 AM (#2279172)
Dustin has slipped all the way to average. I won't bring up Goldstein's assessment of Callaspo.


Except you will, and you did.

What's your point anyways? Did anyone even mention Pedroia?
   16. 1k5v3L Posted: January 12, 2007 at 03:02 AM (#2279174)
Well, bibigon, Pedroia will be mentioned eventually. Not by me though. I'm done.
   17. Templeusox has Red-State Street Cred Posted: January 12, 2007 at 03:04 AM (#2279175)
E.P.P., it was supposed to be a snark about some of the BoSox prospects (i.e., Natale, Pedroia) being a bit too old and too polished in college while in low A ball, and thus "mashing".

Oh, Ok. The oldest player on that list is 21 and not one of them went to a 4-year college. If that really is the lineup for the Drive, I would be surprised if it wasn't the youngest team in the SAL.
   18. 1k5v3L Posted: January 12, 2007 at 03:11 AM (#2279177)
Thanks, E.P.P. I actually figured that would be a pretty young team but a low hanging fruit was there for the pickin'...

Incidentally, the Red Sox do have quite a bit of very young (maybe underrated because of it?) players in the system. It'll take time to sort them out, but Peter Gammons will be a very happy guy in a couple of years...

Btw, in the Goldstein article I referred to, he mentions that the Red Sox are most likely going to skip Buchholz directly to AA to save him from the California League and Lancaster. I'm guessing this will prompt Kevin to write a long letter to Theo Epstein, explaining how Buchholz should be subjected to the harshness of the CAL league, so that he could experience difficulty and build his stamina and character. Because we all know that if he failed in Lancaster, he wouldn't have the cojones to succeed in the majors...

[/end rant]
   19. Steamer46 Posted: January 12, 2007 at 05:57 AM (#2279203)
Anyone else notice Egan's birthdate coincides with one of the greatest games in Red Sox history?

Also for those that enjoy birthdateology... our new #1 and #5 hitters are born 2 days before and two days after our #3 hitter. Maybe the Sox just really like the Karma brought by that #3 hitter...
   20. Josh Posted: January 12, 2007 at 08:36 AM (#2279213)
Great write ups, Temple.

There will be scant players on this list, I imagine, who have a pro track record of success. That is just how things are right now, though some of these players could still move quickly (eg, Bard & Cox).

Only 1 player on the BPro list has more than 1 full-year of pro ball. For comparison's sake (and without trying to re-summon Levski), all but 3 of the AZ Bpro top 10 list has more than 1 full-year of pro ball.
   21. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: January 12, 2007 at 10:17 AM (#2279251)
Btw, in the Goldstein article I referred to, he mentions that the Red Sox are most likely going to skip Buchholz directly to AA to save him from the California League and Lancaster.
I think that's the right thing to do, if they think it's possible for Buchholz to handle AA right now. That is the big question, though.

That is one upside-heavy list from Goldstein. Buchholz a full level above Ellsbury? Cox, Place, and Bard a full level above Pedroia? There's basically no weight given to how much chance a player has at being average in MLB. That's a valid methodology, but it's certainly striking.
   22. Darren Posted: January 13, 2007 at 05:46 PM (#2280185)
From Rosenthal's latest:

The Marlins continue to explore trades for young center fielders, focusing on the Red Sox's David Murphy, Indians' Franklin Gutierrez and Devil Rays' B.J. Upton and Elijah Dukes.

Murphy is an interesting target; one scout calls him a "sleeper," believing that he eventually will hit for power. The Rays rejected an Upton-for-Ricky Nolasco deal earlier this off-season. Talks between the teams currently are dormant.


What would they give for Murphy? I'll take it!
   23. Biff, Red Sox Jinx Posted: January 14, 2007 at 02:54 PM (#2280434)
What would they give for Murphy? I'll take it!

I won't. If the Marlins think he's good, he mustbe!
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