Red Sox Top 20 Prospects Part 2
Prospects #11-15 from Temple:
15. Chad Spann (3B); b. 10/25/83: This year, Spann transformed himself from a relatively innocuous Sox prospect to an innocuous prospect with upside. Spann hit well in the very pitcher-friendly Eastern League, though his playing time was limited because of nagging injuries. In 2007, he will need to control the strike zone better and improve his defensive footwork to turn himself into a potential solid regular. As a 23-year old who might play in triple-A, he is still age-appropriate for his competition.
Portland- 360 AB’s, .294/.361/.471, 29/85 BB/K
14. Carlos Fernandez-Oliva (OF); b. 9/3/86: “The CFO” made his state-side debut this year and did not disappoint. After being named the Sox Latin Position Player of the Year in 2005, the CFO was jumped from the VSL to the GCL in 2006. Fernandez put up a very respectable .297/.376/.458 line in 155 AB’s as a 19-year old. Fernandez used his work in extended spring training to strengthen his upper body and add more pop in his bat. He can play all 3 outfield positions adequately, but will most likely end up as a right-fielder at higher levels. The CFO capped off the year by batting .416/.452/.584 in the Venezuelan Winter League’s lower level--easily making him the best offensive player in the league. He should be starting in Greenville in 2007.
GCL Red Sox- 155 AB’s, .297/.376/.458, 20/26 BB/K
13. Brandon Moss (OF); b. 9/16/83: Perhaps the streakiest player in the organization, Moss carried the Dogs through the playoffs on one of his torrid hot streaks. However his season still lacked the consistency you seek out of a prospect. At 23, Moss will still be young enough to belong in triple-A. Another left-handed hitting Sox right fielder also didn’t blossom until his 23 and 24-year old seasons in Pawtucket. Moss has good speed and range in right, with a very good arm. If he can ever find a way to carry the same approach throughout a season he might develop into an everyday major leaguer. Unfortunately, the same can be said for hundreds of minor leaguers. He will most likely start the year in Pawtucket as the right-fielder.
Portland- 508 AB’s, .285/.357/.439, 56/108
12. David Murphy (OF); b. 10/18/81: The controversial and oft-questioned Murphy finally made his major league debut this season, three years after being drafted. The left-handed hitter earned a promotion from double-A Portland to triple-A Pawtucket 1/3 of the way through the season. It has long been conventional wisdom that Murphy’s future role lies as a 4th outfielder. But a couple teams, Florida and Texas, have exhibited interest in Murphy as an everyday CF. He will most likely never get a starting role on the Sox, but he can be valuable as a defender at all 3 outfield positions and a left-handed compliment to Wily Mo Pena.
Portland- 172 AB’s, .273/.315/.436, 11/29 BB/K
Pawtucket- 318 AB’s, .267/.355/.447, 45/53 BB/K
Boston- 22 AB’s, .227/.346/.409, 4/4 BB/K
11. George Kottaras (C); b. 5/10/83: Acquired in a late-season trade for David Wells, the Canadian-born catcher immediately moved to the top of the organization’s catcher depth chart. Kottaras split time between Mobile and Portland in the San Diego organization, in addition to playing for the Portland Sea Dogs in the minor league playoffs. Kottaras’s bat has always been ahead of his glove. The Sox have paired him with Rob Leary in an effort to clean up his actions behind the plate and abbreviate his release. His potential is probably Scott Hatteberg, with a better glove behind the plate.
Mobile- 257 AB’s, .276/.394/.451, 50/68
Portland- 119 AB’s, .210/.286/.361, 12/30
Darren
Posted: January 15, 2007 at 09:37 AM |
18 comment(s)
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If he's a 1B or corner OF, he ain't all that great.
19. Negron- SS
18. Martinez- RP
17. Egan- C
16. Doubront- SP
15. Spann- 3B
14. Fernandez- OF
13. Moss- RF
12. Murphy- RF
11. Kottaras- C
I'd still take the under on Spann. Just spuerficially looking at his splits it looks like he had a pretty high BABIP (.367) with a pretty low LD% (12.6%) although perhaps that isn't all that low for the EL. He also beat the hell of of LHP (1029) and struggled against RHP (761). I'm not sure how projectable that performance really is and his tools have always been fairly blah. A nice "remember me" year, but I don't think upside is the right word.
The Moss-Nixon comparison that has been going around a bit lately is too easy and hopeful imo. Nixon had health related reasons for struggling in his early 20s and always carried the residual skills and tools that made him considered arguably the top HS bat in the 1993 draft. The residuals that are holding up Moss' prospect status are his fluky good year in A ball. The foundations are so different that it undermines the comparison for me.
BA left Kottaras out of their Top 10 as well and unless he flat out cannot catch, I think he's being underrated. A LH catcher with a strong hitting track record in the high minors should be a notch about the Murphys and Mosses and not so easily passed by June draftees with a couple of months of pro pitching like presumably Masterson, Johnson and Cox.
Scott Hatteberg's minor league line - 256/360/384 (744)
Kottaras - 283/383/450 (833)
Now Hatteberg has probably had a better career than expected and Hatteberg's MLB line (including his time at 1B) would be a pretty good end result for Kottaras, but in this case I think the comparison undersells the prospect.
As far as positional stuff goes, I'd like to amend the "SS" next to Lowrie's name on Temple's list to "2B". He made a ton of errors and from all accounts isn't comfortable at SS. I'd rather that he shift over to 2B where he will be more effective defensively, giving him more time to worry about his offense (which as last season showed, merits worrying).
Also, Egan seems to be a 50/50 shot to stay at catcher. He had a bad defensive rep coming out of HS, then when he didn't hit a lick in his GCL debut was noted in the "at least he was better than expected with the glove" sense. Of course when he mashed last year, the questions arose again. Hopefully a year tearing up the Sally League will give us a clearer picture of his defensive abilities.
As far as Marginal Moss and Murphy go, both are prime candidates to be included in a trade to the right team. For now, they're not bad injury insurance, but they'd really have to open eyes this year to even come close to be taken seriously as a potential starter for the Sox.
If he changes position, then his listing will change. Same with Egan.
I really don't get the mini David Murphy prospectdom resurgence. I think people get too excited when they see an 800 OPS. He's gonna be 25 next year, projects to have about a 700 major league OPS and I'd be mildly surprised if he was an average centerfielder. Maybe in his prime he puts up a couple of David Dellucci's bad years, but I think that's about it. I would rather have any of the GCL kids with at least a shot at being valuable than him. I think Lowrie is significantly better too
I don't think the reasoning behind it is that he's suddenly going to start hitting .290/.370/.480 in the majors or something, but more that he looked like he might be a complete washout after his struggles at Portland to start the season, and now it's looking as though he might end up as a nice 4th OF again. Sure, he's almost certain to never be an impact guy, but there's nothing wrong with having a guy who could hit .265/.330/.425 or so and play all three OF positions for the league minimum for a few years - and it appears he could realistically achieve that.
Well, how often does a contending team say to themselves "Damn, we really need a tweener OF who can give us a 90 OPS+ but they're just too hard to find"?
I made a highly scientifical graph to explain why I would rather have Ryan Kalish than David Murphy: http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v178/gehrig38/kalishmurphy.jpg
Anyone know anything else about his defense or where he'll play this year?
I made a highly scientifical graph to explain why I would rather have Ryan Kalish than David Murphy: http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v178/gehrig38/kalishmurphy.jpg
That looks to me like they've got pretty similar values, just Murphy has a better chance of being alright while Kalish has a better chance of being good. And I think Shane Spencer types have some value.
I concur. Sickels has Kottaras at 8 with a grade of B and Murphy at 14 with a grade of C+. I think that better expresses the gap between these two. I think if Temple included grades here, that gap would be similarly pronounced.
W/r/t Wagner, I just need to see a college player do better at a level higher than low-A to start getting on the bandwagon. I have heard he is a decent enough defensive catcher, but again, I want to see him hit well at an advanced level first. He projects as a backup to me.
That may sound contradictory to my last post about Egan but I'm willing to break the rule for him because he:
A) is a catcher
B) rebounded fabulously from first year problems. That tells me he has the capacity to respond to adversity well.
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