Championship insurance is.

Championship Insurance is Johan Santana (i'm being facetious, but you get my point. Jermaine Dye guarentees a championship? Jermaine Dye doesn't even guarentee a playoff spot)

Wok - you are way too down on Dye.

He is 33 and has a recent track record vacillating anywhere between MVP candidate and very good. He had a rough start to 2007. Big deal.

He is 33 and has a recent track record vacillating anywhere between MVP candidate and very good. He had a rough start to 2007. Big deal.

I'll make you a deal: if Therapy lets me call Jermaine Dye (JD!) a girl's name, I'll shut up about the deal.

Maybe a Papi DL stint to start. Platoon w/ Drew. Spell Papi every now and then against LHP as well. Spell Youk and Lowell once each every other week or so. Spell Manny too.

I know how it's done at that level. The issue is getting a bunch of headstrong arrogant ######## (read: MLB regulars) to agree to it day in and day out without having their production affected. Tito would have to do that for the first time in his career in Boston.

I mean, if all else fails, Buc will be fine. And Timlin has been great for a while too now.

Timlin's shoulder is hurt. Buccholz has been moved back to starting after a short an inauspicious relief career, and hasn't been a great 1st inning pitcher. From your 1st base comment, you seem to be saying that you're transmitting some beliefs from within the Sox organization - do they see Buc as a bullpen solution? That would change things, certainly. (Is the "world series insurance" idea from within the org, too?)

But you're trying to win a championship. Insurance is not that pricey. Championship insurance is.

Sure, but you could make the same argument for acquiring a starting SS, or a closer, or a catcher, and so on. I'm not convinced that this insurance makes that much more sense than the other forms, which we're not going after.

No transmitting. I think it just comes down to the belief that the Sox have a deep system and that they can deal, and even overpay from it in order to address potential pitfalls.

FWIW II:

July 30, 2007
26 hours to go, Sox not close to a deal
By Gordon Edes, Globe Staff
Remember, these situations are fluid, but while the White Sox remain hopeful of persuading the Sox to make a deal for outfielder Jermaine Dye, the price remains too high for Boston.

Chicago would take Wily Mo Pena but want either Manny Delcarmen or Justin Masterson. The Red Sox will not part with either for a rent-a-player like Dye, who is eligible for free agency after the season.

There is a decent chance that the Red Sox will not make a substantive deal before tomorrow's 4 p.m. deadline, but stay tuned.

If Edes is right, thank goodness. Don't like Dye, and think Wily Mo is better than he has looked this season.

Do the Red Sox realize how much Wily Mo's stock has fallen?

I'd expect him as a throw-in for someone like Dye, not the main piece.

I really like Delcarmen (and like what I read about Masterson), but they don't seem like high prices to pay for rental players.

OGF -

This is what I've been saying about how the teams' don't match up.

To the White Sox, rightly, Jermaine Dye is a former MVP candidate who's been playing at MVP level for the last month. The sort of guy you expect at least a Masterson-ish prospect for, and you're disappointed if you don't get more. But to the Red Sox, he's a 4th outfielder. They have $15M contracts at each position that Dye might play. So, to the Red Sox, it doesn't make sense to give up even a smallish piece of their future (though I guess some people here disagree with me).

I have no idea how the talks got this far, given the vast divide between Dye's value in the abstract and Dye's value to the Red Sox, and I'll be much more comfortable with the world if they've fallen through.

Wow, it's amazing how MCoA always seems to help get my point across in a non-inflammatory manner.

Well put.

You know what's funny: When you check the web throughout a busy day to see if the Red Sox maybe possibly landed a 4th OF or (unlikely) an upgrade at the infield corners or maybe a new reliever, and then say to yourself, "I'll just check and see if there are any new rumblings today about the Celtics." At least, it's funny when you do that today.

According to the Chicago Sun-Times, the Red Sox have reconsidered, and are "set to" send Delcarmen and Pena to the White Sox for Dye.

The article simply says "sources say" and the phrase "set to" sounds like weasel-talk, but that certainly suggests talks are more alive than they were as of the last update.

I still don't like it. I don't think it's a horrible disaster of a trade, but it doesn't make hte Red Sox any much better than they were before it.

yeah i'm really surprised that there's no interest in dye among teams that, you know, need a corner outfielder! you'd think the mets might be in on this.

According to the Globe this morning, Boston has revised their proposal from yesterday - essentially Dye for Pena, with neither MDC nor Masterson in the deal - and are waiting on the White Sox to respond. Don't know if MDC has been added, as the Sun-Times has reported, but...

The Globe also has Boston, as of this morning, in the Gagne sweepstakes. I can only imagine that Gagne is pursued if they lose Delcarmen (answering Wok's question of "who pitches the 7th" with "some absolute stud")... not to say they couldn't use both of them, but rather that MDC becomes closer to expendable if the Sox have Gagne.

And I guess the way in which it makes sense for Boston to pick up Gagne and drop MDC is that they keep other competitors from improving. Nobody gets Gagne, and nobody in contention gets MDC. That's how it makes sense for this year; unless they extend Gagne it doesn't make much sense for next year. (Edit: Even at that, MDC has a much lower salary than Gagne would command. I suppose the draft picks would work in their favor as well; they've done a decent job drafting, so the picks are worth more than they are for other teams, I suppose.)

I still agree that getting Dye makes sense only for insurance, and/or if Ortiz is hurt more than is being let on... or if they're planning to unload Manny. But I doubt that last one.

From the Herald:

One GM said that, from what he’d been told, the Sox had the best offers on the table for both Dye and Gagne.

It's some unmentioned GM with info on both trades, so take it for what it's worth. But that makes it sound, er, serious.

I love Gagne... but...

1) He can reject a deal to us, and he probably will unless we buy out his "games finished" bonus
2) He'll need to be babied like Papelbon, because he's got health issues.

LIsten, he's badass, is obviously way better than Delcarmen, and we can DEFINITELY get at least a draft pick for him if he walks.

I'm still high on Damaso Marte. He can replace BOTH Lopez and Delcarmen simultaneously.

And the NY Daily News has the theoretical package for Gagne being Gabbard and Murphy.

I still don't see where they expect Kevin Garnett to play. I must be missing something.

It's some unmentioned GM with info on both trades, so take it for what it's worth. But that makes it sound, er, serious.

named theo?

Does Hansen have any value whatsoever? I could see him being a throw-in with Pena, assuming Chicago would even want him. He's been a bit of a disappointment, but he was a 1st rounder, and might be getting his stuff back together in AAA.

Gabbard and Murphy are pretty much exactly right for Gagne. I'd be sad to see Gabbard go, but Gagne would be make an already excellent bullpen one of the best Red Sox bullpens in memory.

1) He can reject a deal to us, and he probably will unless we buy out his "games finished" bonus

He's got a couple million potentially in those bonuses. Playoff shares probably won't be more than $400k, so unless his contract has additional payouts for playoffs you're probably correct.

Does Hansen have any value whatsoever?

Yes.

Gabbard and Murphy for Gagne is relatively comparable to Dotel for Davies.

Gagne is a good bit better than Dotel, and Davies has upside that Gabbard can't dream of, but on the other hand Davies has sucked in MLB while Gabbard's been pretty solid. Toss in Murphy, and that's a deal I'd be happy with, and that isn't crazy for the Rangers.

These are some strange little tweaks that Theo's going after, buying up really, really good players to play atypically marginal roles, but I think Sully's notion of "championship insurance" is very likely exactly the thinking on Yawkey Way. I'm not sure it's a good idea, but obviously if it comes at a cost of Pena, Gabbard, Murphy and cash, no one's going to complain. The question is which pieces of the future would be added on top.

Gabbard and Murphy for Gagne

I'd do that deal 8 days out of 7, even if we have to buy out Gagne's bonuses.

(And the question with Dye is further whether Tito can keep everyone happy and productive while juggling more good veteran players into one too few lineup slots.) (And the question about the Dye trade is if only it happens, and it costs Manny D, who's the third reliever?) (But my point, despite the parentheticals, is that my computer broke and the one I'm using doesn't have Java enabled so I can't just edit these points into the original comment.)

I think "championship insurance" is exactly the sort of strategy a big market team with the best record in baseball at the trade deadline, with a deep farm system, should be employing.

The worst case can be covered for via farm depth and future free agent acquisition.

(And the question with Dye is further whether Tito can keep everyone happy and productive while juggling more good veteran players into one too few lineup slots.)

youks can play 3rd and drew can play center. that means, you have 6 positions (1b, 3b, lf, cf, rf, dh) and 7 players ... so everybody gets a day off ... should be do-able.

Pineiro to STL for PTBNL, according to boston.com ....

Pineiro to STL for PTBNL, according to boston.com ....

I can't believe somebody is actually willing to take the contract

I can't believe somebody is actually willing to take the contract

Maybe PTBNL is Josh Hancock's contract.

Edit: And boston.com reports it's Pineiro and cash to STL for PTBNL. That answers that.

Maybe PTBNL is Josh Hancock's contract.

I'd rather pay a dead person over Joel Piniero.

Edes is reporting that Dye's agent hasn't heard from anyone in 3 days, and implies that he might drag his feet on waiving his no-trade clause for Boston unless the team gives him reason not to - and by that he doesn't mean "assurances he'll play at least 5 games a week".

That's my paraphrase of Edes' wording of the agent's comments on behalf of Dye, with whom he may or may not have spoken. For all I know, Dye is shopping on Newbury Street right now, or asleep in the City that Never Sleeps. Beats me.

Edes is chatting now. To sum up:

1. Sox have told him Delcarmen is off the table. (He thinks Hansen is the one.)

2. Proctor to LAD, Betemit to NYY. Agreement in principle (which I usually take as "contingent on other deals", which might mean Gagne).

1. Sox have told him Delcarmen is off the table. (He thinks Hansen is the one.)

If the White Sox trade Jermaine Dye for Wily Mo Pena and Craig Hansen, I'm going to be pissed.

But think, you only give up two months of Dye, but you could have Wily Mo for the rest of his career!

you could have Wily Mo for the rest of his career!

That's what I'm afraid of.

I know this is both offtopic and baitingly immature, but I can't help it. I went over to the RLYW to see what they were saying about the Betemit trade, and I noticed the AWESOME GM for a day thread. To summarize: Scott Proctor for Elijah Dukes and Wade Townsend; Kyle Farnsworth for Brad Lidge; Kei Igawa for a person who can play baseball.

Sean McNally, I think, has won the all-time bull moose grand prize for and-a-ponyism.

Sean McNally, I think, has won the all-time bull moose grand prize for and-a-ponyism.

It's cute that he thinks that Eric Duncan has trade value.

I know this is both offtopic and baitingly immature, but I can't help it.

yeah you should be ashamed of yourself!

That's ok, MCoA, we probably deserve it after all the fun we had with the trade proposal from this thread where the Royals were giving up Dotel AND Reggie Sanders for Pena.

You had fun with the Royals trade, but you missed Murphy and Pauley for Andy LaRoche? Now that was a trade offer. McNallian, to coin a phrase.

If the White Sox trade Jermaine Dye for Wily Mo Pena and Craig Hansen, I'm going to be pissed.

Yeah. I'd rather have the draft picks than that.

Give Wily Mo 600 PA in Chicago and he hits 40 homers, but his OBP is under .300 and he's -20 in UZR.

I know this is both offtopic and baitingly immature, but I can't help it. I went over to the RLYW to see what they were saying about the Betemit trade, and I noticed the AWESOME GM for a day thread. To summarize: Scott Proctor for Elijah Dukes and Wade Townsend; Kyle Farnsworth for Brad Lidge; Kei Igawa for a person who can play baseball.

You're not nice, Matt.

Apparently Kyle Farnsworth has 7.2 mil left on his contract. I may be wrong. How is TAHT supposed to get moved?

I confess to putting out Dotel + Sanders for Wily Mo. I overestimated Wily's trade value.

Robo, though, says that the Red Sox have won the Gagne sweepstakes. Of course, he has to waive his no-trade clause.

Robo's breaking everything, isn't he? Does this make him the new Peter Gammons?

Of course, he has to waive his no-trade clause.

JUST BUY OUT HIS BONUSES DAMMIT

"For two prospects" is the report I saw.

Now it's time for the traditional Lucchino two-step where the initial reports are really great for the Sox, and it slowly comes out that the actual deal is much more dubious, though not actually bad.

I'll be sad if they move MDC, I'd much rather they move Hansen.

here is no way it's Gabbard and Murphy. It's like trading toilet paper for a notebook computer with a bad LCD display.

Everybody needs toilet paper, you can't live without it, you can live without a notebook computer, but nobody in their right mind trades a laptop for for toilet paper, no matter how badly you have to take a dump.

Any chance the Red Sox can et Kevin Millar back?
He's having a nice year and Baltimore is in "sell-mode".
Millar would be cheaper than Dye, and could spell JD drew in right field.

Millar to the Red Sox for Hansen and WMP.

Now it's time for the traditional Lucchino two-step where the initial reports are really great for the Sox, and it slowly comes out that the actual deal is much more dubious, though not actually bad.

That would mean Ellsbury and not Murphy is the position player going with Gabbard.

Any chance the Red Sox can et Kevin Millar back?
He's having a nice year and Baltimore is in "sell-mode".
Millar would be cheaper than Dye, and could spell JD drew in right field.

OH GOD NO. I'd rather trade for Dye than Millar 90 days out of 7. Dye can actually take a reasonable route to a flyball.

here is no way it's Gabbard and Murphy.

You don't think so, Wok? I like that deal very much. As much as I like Gabbard, he's the most expendable starting pitcher they have. And Murphy is, what, the third best OF prospect? Like the Braves, they're trading from strength. Unlike the Braves, they aren't trading anyone near the top of their prospects list.

Millar's hitting really well, after the bad couple months that ended his RS career most fans forgot just how good he was.
He'd be a welcome addition to the clubhouse and could spell Youkilis against tough righties.

I think Wok thinks it's too good - that that's not nearly enough to get Gagne. That seems to be the concensus over on the main board. Either a great trade for the Red Sox, or there's report not yet filed that fills this in.

I think Wok thinks it's too good - that that's not nearly enough to get Gagne.

Not even remotely close. Would you trade your laptop with a wonky LCD for 2 rolls of toilet paper? Not to mention the fact that after the year you can trade your laptop in for a couple of raffle tickets?

You're right, it's a freaking steal for the Sox. But I wonder if there's truth in some talk about how there's a market ineffiency for prospects right now. Not only is no one giving up their #1 prospect, don't bother asking about #2, #3 or #4, either. If ALL teams are doing that (and it sure seems like it), then who else is there? If the second best the Rangers can do for Gagne is Tony Gwynn Jr., then this is the better deal.

As Wok points out, this doesn't include the raffle tickets. Didn't someone point out earlier that the new CBA doesn't include supplemental picks?

Didn't someone point out earlier that the new CBA doesn't include supplemental picks?

What? I haven't heard about this. They didn't change the Comp pick rules.

Not only is no one giving up their #1 prospect, don't bother asking about #2, #3 or #4, either.

Well, you can get another team's top-5 prospect, you just have to give up Mark Teixeira to get it.

It's getting to the point where rent-a-players are next to valueless, no matter how good they are.

Olney reports that the Sox are sending Gabbard, Murphy and Engel Beltre in the deal. Beltre has disappointed a bit in the GCL, but he's still a good prospect, if very far away. I knew there was another piece coming.

I'm still happy with the trade.

It's getting to the point where rent-a-players are next to valueless, no matter how good they are.

Exactly. And a new market ineffieciency is born.

Who's Engel Beltre? I've herad his name here

How do I refute a comparison of David Murphy to BUBBA CROSBY?

So, Theo says it's:

To Sox: Gagne, cash
To Rangers: Gabbard, Murphy, Beltre

-Sox have shifted Gagne's bonuses for Games Finished to be simply bonuses for Games
-Theo expects Gagne to be a Type A free agent (that's news to me)

Theo expects Gagne to be a Type A free agent (that's news to me)

He was a type A last year - and that was after missing the prior two years, basically. I have no idea what formula based on two year's of stats would make that true, though.

Who's Engel Beltre? I've herad his name here

One of the two major Latin American FA signings from last year. A 17 y/o lefty CFer with good tools in the GCL. Signed for slightly less than 600k.

So, now what?

-Red Sox still need a real 4th OF. Ellsbury will probably get a shot at that job at some point - it seems like having someone on the bench who can do some defensive replacement work would be good. Having a RH bat, too, would be good. Don't know what they'll do there.

-The bullpen is so freakin' awesome, I love it. I figure Tito will not be "aggressive" with his relievers, counting on each of the top three to come in at the beginning of an inning and finish it. Okajima can get some more days off.

-I'm not at all surprised the Dye trade fell through, of course. Theo seems to be saying that the Red Sox had the best offer out there, but it didn't happen. Surprised that was the best deal, but not surprised KW rejected it.

The pitching schedule is favorable - they can just use the off-day to skip Gabbard's slot and move up the staff and line Schilling up for a return on Saturday. So, the Sox will carry an 8-man pen until Friday, and then they'll have to make a move.

Don't know what they'll do there.

Kielty is still available, no? That is who I'd like to see. He has already made it through waivers and will be an FA (if he refuses assignment) soon, I believe.

Tito's saying that Donnelly's having surgery, and it sounds like he's done for the season.

(Tommy John. He knew he had to have the surgery a few days ago, but he kept it quiet to help the Sox.)

That was nice of Tommy John not to say anything.