I didn't mention this in the intro because I wanted to focus on Philly's work. But the Sox really got hosed on the compensation picks again, especially in comparison to the Yanks. For the 2nd year in a row, the Yankees managed to get the 'just-mediocre-enough-to-remain-outside-the-top-15' Phillies to sign a pitcher who they let go (the 17th pick and the 21st pick in 06). Meanwhile, for Damon, the Red Sox got the #28 pick from the Yanks.

Worst of all, it had appeared that Twins were a likely destination for Bill Mueller, which would have meant pick #20 for the Red Sox. Unfortunately, he went to the Dodgers, and thus stuck the Sox with a 3rd rounder, #83. That drop means that instead of a decent chance at getting a good player, they'll have almost no chance. Here's hoping for another Papelbon!

It will also be interesting to see how the new CBA affects the draft.

Worst of all, it had appeared that Twins were a likely destination for Bill Mueller, which would have meant pick #20 for the Red Sox. Unfortunately, he went to the Dodgers, and thus stuck the Sox with a 3rd rounder, #83. That drop means that instead of a decent chance at getting a good player, they'll have almost no chance. Here's hoping for another Papelbon!

Thankfully, the 2006 Draft is going to be full of pre-draft deals and below slot signings, because of it's lack of high-end talent. I honestly think this year, the difference between #21 and #28 is negligible. Yea, it would have been nice to have the Twins 1st rounder or the Dodgers' 2nd rounder, but what are you going to do? That's how the system works. Trust me, the Sox have made out like Bandits with draft picks the last 2 years. My problem is not the Sox making the right picks however, it's signing the right people. I actually have a lot of faith in our scouts to identify overlooked talent. We might have drafted the two best players in college baseball this year; Pedro Alvarez and Allan Dykstra. I'm not talking about the best freshman, I'm talking about possibly the two best overall players. Last year Brian Van Kirk was a possible DFE of ours who we passed on, and he is now hitting very well at Tennessee. We had a respectable crop of DFE's this year, though none were among the top prospects. I think are scouts are solid enough to uncover some high end talent.

I also think this is as good a year as any to employ a divergent draft strategy. This means taking a gamble on a couple high upside prep players. Believe me, I usually air on the side of taking safe position players. But the college position talent is bare, especially by the time the Sox draft. There will be no Ellsburys or even Lowries when the Sox pick. There is no need to overdraft a player like Manny Burriss or Wes Hodges, just to fulfill a quotient of collegiate position players. Maybe taking a Cody Johnson, Chris Parmelee, or Stephen King just might work out. Several players I would like in rounds 2-4 are Texas prep OF Matt Sulentic, NY prep RHP Dellin Betances, and Franklin Pierce SS Garrett Olson.

I'll have more over the next coming days.

Temple, I hadn't seen your draft thread previously. It's good stuff. For others, here's the link. Lots of stuff about the various guys available.

BA ranks the Top 30 players in the draft. #20, Hank Conger, is a switch hitting HS catcher. He could be a nice addition to a position that Boston has little depth at, if he falls far enough. Even if he doesn't stick at catcher, he's apparently got power, which Boston needs.

Just be happy there wasn't anything embarrassing on that cut & paste!

Very nice mlb.com article on the Sox draft.

The most interesting note is that scouting director Jason McLeod seems to pretty clearly say that the Red Sox want to draft high schoolers:

"Again, unfortunately, coming off a year like last year when you had the Justin Uptons, and Alex Gordons and Ryan Zimmermans and Mike Pelfreys and those guys, you just don't have those players this year, McLeod said. "I think that's why it's easy to look at the draft and say it's a weak year. I'm excited about the depth of the high school talent that's out there. I think you're going to see a lot of these kids that are in the high school ranks become very good Major League players in five, six years, they're just not high-profile guys now. So I think the high school class, especially with the position players, will probably surprise some people.

One of the great little insights in philly's draft studies is that the ranks of high school infielders are incredibly top-heavy. Or, perhaps, the people scouting high school infielders do an atypically good job of identifying the best, but an atypically poor job of identifying the good ones. So I guess it's at least arguable that there's a set of missed talent there, if someone could identifying good-not-great high school infielder types.

Good post, TempleUSox - I agree with you on Sulentic and Betances. Also, the Red Sox drafted Rice's Degerman, who has been excellent for the Owls this year.

This means taking a gamble on a couple high upside prep players.

Hard to guess who will be available by the time the Red Sox pick. Marrero might be (and the Sox should certainly take him if he is), but my guess is that he'll go in the 15-20 range.

I don't think Betances will make it to the Sox pick in the second round (the Yankees might grab him at #41), so if they want him they probably should take him at #40. Ryan Adams or Adrian Cardenas (a teammate of Marrero's) could be around in the second if the Sox want another middle infield type.

-- MWE

Temple, I hadn't seen your draft thread previously. It's good stuff. For others, here's the link. Lots of stuff about the various guys available.

Thanks for the shout out Darren. Here is the real link if anyone is interested.

I noticed in that thread that a person named Hairps had some interesting stuff to add, particularly the suggestion that the Sox take a late flier on Danny Ray Herrera. To summarize his/her point, Herrera is 5'7, 145 and doesn't throw hard. However, he put up an ERA of 2.24 in New Mexico, which is a hitter's haven (elevation, I'm guessing?) with a PF of 159. He'd be a fun guy to root for.

Would a player like him be tempted to go back to college for one more year, just to prove that it wasn't a fluke, rather than take say, a 7th round bonus?

I also love the "Get to Know" pieces. Did you write those?

Would a player like him be tempted to go back to college for one more year, just to prove that it wasn't a fluke, rather than take say, a 7th round bonus?

I doubt it. You don't want to tempt your fate at Lobo Field. Also, he is a junior, so he is probably maximizing his leverage right now. Definitely a "We're Not Selling Jeans" type pick. But I think it's worth a flier too.

Yea, I wrote the "Get To Know" pieces. Looking back, I might have erred by writing them in 1st person format. Though it might be slightly more interesting prose, it kind of limits the amount of flaws you can talk about with a player (or the amount of flaws the players talks about within himself). I try not to have them end up being fluff pieces, but some of them turn out that way. Nevertheless, they have actually helped me get ready for the draft more than anything.

Hey Darren, thanks for linking to these. I appreciate it.

Here are links to summaries of the first three parts.

Part 1: Draft Shape

Part 2: Career Rank

Part 3: Top 40 Rank

These sections are fairly basic and kind of dry. I'm going to skip over to the more draft strategy/philosophy sections next, hopefully tomorrow night.

PSF, I found all of them interesting, particularly the last part. The value of the 1st pick is really illustrated by the fact that the average best player in a draft (at least in the years studied), is a Hall of Famer.

ya know, I really hope that the next CBA addresses some of the problems with the current draft.

it's nice for the red sox, but it really is ridiculous how the compensation pick system favors the big market teams.

it's also silly to see top-10 talent drop 10-20 slots due to signablity and Boras.

Congrats Philly, there is some great stuff in there.

Damn this is a confusing sight. A great one, though, and I'm glad I finally found my way here.

Hairps is me, I am a guy, and I appreciate your thoughts on Danny Ray Herrera.

I'm not even sure if my own Ode to Danny Ray Herrera was more half-serious or half-joking. But as a flier, why not?

I would definitely buy his jersey.

And I don't mean to take away from the discussion of philly's excellent draft studies.

It is an astounding set of work.

Here are two more parts:

Part 5: Sorted by Rounds

Part 6: Sorted by School

Some more stats from Hairps that I found interesting:

Top Draft Eligible College Hitters

Top Draft Eligible College Pitchers

Little Herrerra makes the 2nd list.

I always wonder when I see studies like this if someone like Voros, working for some team, is screaming at his computer "Hey, I just spent 2 months coming up with a proprietary system like this. Now everyone has it! Thanks a lot!"

Oh, and let's draft Eva(n) Longoria! Meow.

Hairps,

Have you done any backtesting of your system? Might be interesting to see who your system would have ranked as tops in, say, 2001, and see how they're doing now.

it's nice for the red sox, but it really is ridiculous how the compensation pick system favors the big market teams.

It's not a "big market teams" issue, it's a "teams losing top tier free agent talent" issue -- it just happened to be the red sox the last few years. No one would accuse the A's of being a big market team, but they benefited immensely (and would have done even better if they hadn't tried to prove something with that draft).

it's also silly to see top-10 talent drop 10-20 slots due to signablity and Boras.

This is the bigger issue. Players who enter the draft using the threat of going or returning to school in an attempt to control their draft destiny undermine the legitimacy of the draft. MLB should change to an NBA or NFL-type system, where players commit before the draft to sign for league-slotted amounts (if selected).

Hairps -

Fascinating work. One thing I'm wondering, as I go over your lists - how did you do the schedule adjustment? It seems to me like there are a lot of second and third-tier baseball schools heavily represented on the hitter list, and not so many on the pitcher list, which is interesting. Also, why did you use DIPS instead of a component ERA? It's been shown that DIPS is a very important skill at the minor league level, and I would assume it's big in college, probably to an even greater degree.

Also, philly's got some great analysis in that HS/C draft study (pt 6), where he puts together the evidence for what happened that made the late 80s such an incredible time for drafting college players.

Basically, the bonus system was so tightly controlled that ballplayers had little incentive to take low money out of HS, and the college programs were booming. Once bonuses increased by a factor of at least five in the early 90s, the draft evened out. Drafts before 1990 or so, because they were run under financial conditions totally different from today's drafts, really aren't all that useful for projections of this year's draft.

Darren:

Have you done any backtesting of your system? Might be interesting to see who your system would have ranked as tops in, say, 2001, and see how they're doing now.

Random. I actually did do something like that for 2001, but it was before wOBA was released. The following is a list, then, of the Top 2001 college hitting seasons, as ranked by their AOPS:

Chris Burke
John VanBenschoten
Dan Johnson
Daniel Uggla
Kevin Mitchell
Jeff Baker
Ryan Brunner
Kevin Youkilis
Chris Shelton
Jeff Keppinger
Michael Woods
Aaron Clark
Burney Hutchinson
Kelly Shoppach
Greg Dobbs
Stefan Bailie
Matt Gecan
Jared Pitney
Mike Rouse

Did I mention that I'm kinda obsessive?

I also went back and re-"mocked" the Red Sox draft using the AOPS metric. So, I went back through their entire draft, and every time took a hitters with a certain pick, I substituted "my" highest-ranking available hitter, as determined by their AOPS. Here's who we would have taken:

Dan Johnson
Daniel Uggla
Ryan Brunner
Kevin Youkilis
Aaron Clark - Not sure he would have still been available.
Chris Shelton
Kelly Shoppach - Not sure he would have still been available.

That's a pretty damn good draft.

Also, as Dolphin/Lichtman/Tango note, wOBA is basically (OBP*2+SLG)/3. So if anyone had the interest, you could go back and convert the above 2001 AOPS's into AwOBA.

how did you do the schedule adjustment?

Here's how...

I determined a hitter's Strength of Schedule ("SoS") by the average ISR of all of the teams he has faced.

So, once a hitter's wOBA has been properly adjusted for Park Effects:

SoSAdjusted wOBA = wOBA*SQRT(SoS/100).

I used SQRT here (tip of the hat to Tangtiger) because wOBA is based on bases, and ISR/SoS is based on runs, so it's necessary to set them (roughly) to each other.

Also, why did you use DIPS instead of a component ERA?

Basically...because Boyd had already tailored the DIPS equation for the college game, so I just went ahead and used that.

I don't know anything about the math behind CERA, but my guess is the assumptions made for MLB would need to be changed to match college baseball.

Certainly, it's just one year, but I count four bigtime sleepers and current MLB contributors on that list - Johnson, Uggla, Youkilis and Shelton drafted in the 10th, 6th, 8th and 33rd rounds, respectively. Not bad.

(Three college infielders plus a college catcher due to be converted to 1B, also. Philly points out that college infielders are a major class of mid-round steals, while college outfielders don't seem to provide the same sleeper possibilities.)

It seems to me like there are a lot of second and third-tier baseball schools heavily represented on the hitter list, and not so many on the pitcher list, which is interesting.

Sorry, just saw this.

My guess is what might be going on is (as mentioned above) that wOBA is expressed in bases, while ERA is expressed in runs.

Both of the adjustments for Park & SoS Effects are based on runs.

The necessary adjustments made for hitters are using the SQRT of Park & SoS.

On the other hand, adjustments to a pitcher's "raw" DERA are using straight Park & SoS.

So, on balance, using this methodology, it looks like a hitter's raw wOBA are impacted less by fluctuation in the effects of Park and SoS than a pitcher's "raw" DERA.

Does that make sense?

Bases^2 = Runs

That's the adjustment I found it necessary to make.

Enough of that. I'm going to dumpall of the formulas and methodologies used (including all of my spreadsheets) in the SoSH Geekage Forum in a few days.

Sorry again. Back to philly. Can I use profanity on this site? Because his draft analyses are ####### amazing.

"Also, why did you use DIPS instead of a component ERA? It's been shown that DIPS is a very important skill at the minor league level, and I would assume it's big in college, probably to an even greater degree."

I'd say from observation its the opposite. DIPS means less in college. Since theres a wider disparity in talent a talented pitcher can knock bat out of a hitters hands and induce weak contact Andrew Millers a good example of this. He can top his 4 seamer out at 96 but has used his 90-93 2 seamer along with his slider to get guys to hit weak groundouts off the handle of the bat.
The 2 seamer takes less effort for him to throw and allows him to stay fresh deeper into games.

I do think DIPS theory has its uses in college. The qaulity of defense pitchers, esp. at lesser programs, have behind them varies widely. Also, there are all sorts of different parks and its not always easy to find a good PF so looking at guys k/bb (along with the other ERAs on the staff) could give you a good idea of how well hes really pitching.

"Certainly, it's just one year, but I count four bigtime sleepers and current MLB contributors on that list - Johnson, Uggla, Youkilis and Shelton drafted in the 10th, 6th, 8th and 33rd rounds, respectively. Not bad.

(Three college infielders plus a college catcher due to be converted to 1B, also. Philly points out that college infielders are a major class of mid-round steals, while college outfielders don't seem to provide the same sleeper possibilities.)"

Of course that list missed out on the best college hitter from that draft...Mark Teixera. Bobby Crosby also makes no appearence.

I'm curious (and not in a trying to bash the metric knda way, but just honestly curious) what, if any, later round college bat sleepers didn't show on that list.

Also, do these stats only use the numbers of the players college season that draft year or his whole career.

I'd be curious to see how guys with good frosh and soph years and weak junior (draft) years look (Erik Lis and Nolan Reimold fall into this category...this year Ian Kennedy, Max Sherzer, Matt LaPorta) as opposed to guys who dont break out till their JR year (Brandon Morrow, who I would love to pick if i was the GM of a pick 3-5 team).

Or how guys with other career paths look in the pros

Of course that list missed out on the best college hitter from that draft...Mark Teixera. Bobby Crosby also makes no appearence.

Whoa. Weird. Teixeira and Crosby aren't in Boyd's database. Will you post their OBP & SLG's and I'll re-run the list?

do these stats only use the numbers of the players college season that draft year or his whole career.

that draft year.

not in a trying to bash the metric knda way

Bash away! It's just a metric, no offense will be taken. And to be clear, I've tried to be pretty straight-forward in saying that any such "ranking" of college hitting seasons should NOT be viewed as a predictor of future ml performance.

Alas, it is the day before the draft. And one thing led to another...

"Teixeira and Crosby aren't in Boyd's database. Will you post their OBP & SLG's and I'll re-run the list?"

Tex's might be bc he missed most of his draft year with an injury
http://geocities.com/beesball/stats2001.html

16 games, all starts, 26 hits, 62 ABs
.419/.556./.742
5 Hrs, 5 2bs, 3-3 on steals
18 BBs, 8 Ks, 1 HBP, 1 GIPD

Tex's might be bc he missed most of his draft year with an injury

Cool. Thanks. A quick & dirty AOPS for Teixeira:

1.324 - puts hit at #5 on the list above.

Gotta run, folks.

Darren, MCoA, MM1f and others, this has been really cool. Thanks for the comments. Feel free to drop me a PM at SoSH or soxprospects if you'd like. Also, the Baseball Analysts pieces have a link to my email address, if that's how you roll. If not, I'll try and check back here in a few days.

Seriously...back to philly's draft analyses everyone!

Go Sox.

- Kent/Hairps

Crapola. Up way too late trying to finish before the draft and the fricking SoSH server is down.

Oh well, it ain't over until Larry Luchino's kid gets drafted in the 50th rd on Wed anyway.

Unless this is very, very weak sign of the 6/6/06 apacolypse I'll have a couple more posts tomorrow night.

I'd say from observation its the opposite. DIPS means less in college. Since theres a wider disparity in talent a talented pitcher can knock bat out of a hitters hands and induce weak contact Andrew Millers a good example of this. He can top his 4 seamer out at 96 but has used his 90-93 2 seamer along with his slider to get guys to hit weak groundouts off the handle of the bat.

MM1f - not a big deal, but that's what I meant. As you move down the ladder from MLB the ability to prevent hits on balls in play becomes easier and easier to pick out of hte statistical record. We completely agree.

In Callis' final mock draft, there are several mentions of Andrew Miller "trying to slip" to the Red Sox and Yankees.

Here are the last two (for now) parts to the series.

Part 7: By Position (with some draft strategy)

Draft Slot Values and Probabilities

Redsox.com has a really good draft recap.

1 - Jason Place, high school outfielder with plus power
1 - Daniel Bard, college pitcher with plus stuff and inconsistent command
1s - Kris Johnson, college pitcher with good stuff coming off TJ surgery
1s - Caleb Clay, high school pitcher only converted from 3B early in his senior year
2 - Justin Masterson, college pitcher with good profile as reliever

They also grabbed a pair of highly rated signability guys. The Sox took Matt LaPorta in the 14th round - he was a projected 1st round talent with maybe the best raw power in the draft, who dropped because he has Boras as an agent. They then took Lars Anderson with their last pick of the day - Anderson was a round 1-2 talent with an advanced bat, I think. If the Sox can sign one of LaPorta or Anderson along with the top guys, this pretty much has to be a very good draft.

The Sox focused on stuff in drafting pitchers, pretty much a complete turnaround from the heady days of Abe Alvarez, 2nd rounder. They even took Bryson Cox in the 3rd, a college pitcher with a fastball that touches 97, but who had been shuffled out of the Rice rotation because of his lack of command.

Cute little article on Jason Place, from his local paper. My favorite quote:

"It’s just uncontrollable emotions," Place said by cell phone less than an hour after being drafted. "The greatest day of my life in my baseball career. I’m speechless."

...

The Red Sox franchise was the best fit Place could have imagined, he said, because of one of its Class-A affiliates, the Greenville Drive.

"Oh gosh, I couldn’t have asked for a better situation early in my minor league career," he said. "It’s probably going to be the toughest part in the minors. It’s awesome to know that I’ll have a lot of family support and people so close in my hometown cheering me on."

Oh gosh, indeed.

Appears I wuz wrong about Cox - here's a snippet from BA's draft blog:

3:25 p.m.: The Red Sox got Rice righthander Bryce Cox, an intriguing senior sign who was face down in the draft pool at this time a year ago. Cox was considered a first five rounds talent last year before developing the yips--a complete inability to find the strike zone. Cox was struggling this spring as well with an ERA hovering around 7 until the Owls coaching staff altered his arm angle. Voila--Cox started throwing 97 mph with his fastball with a high-80s slider and pitched well for the Owls in the regional against Prairie View A&M;in a tight game. Cox's story seems like a success story for a player who had the yips.
--John Manuel

1 - Jason Place, high school outfielder with plus power


I hear he has poor plate discipline.


1 - Daniel Bard, college pitcher with plus stuff and inconsistent command

Had a ballooning BB and HR rate last year.

1s - Kris Johnson, college pitcher with good stuff coming off TJ surgery

He's ALREADY had a TJ. Yikes

And one for Phil: Sox 13th round draft pick, Utah SS Ryan Khoury

we shoudl take the Papelbon twins in the later rounds.

Hey, you never know.

And one for Phil: Sox 13th round draft pick, Utah SS Ryan Khoury

he's from west jordan!

1 - Daniel Bard, college pitcher with plus stuff and inconsistent command

Had a ballooning BB and HR rate last year.

I can't find his HR rate, but his BB/9 has gone 2.9, 4.3, 3.5; while his K/9 has gone 6.4, 7.8, 9.5. The BB's are more under control, but not where you'd like. I've seen him pitch twice and, if you just look at his stuff and not the man throwing or exactly where the ball ends up, he's more impressive than Miller. Not say his pitches are better than Miller's or that he'll be a better pro, only that his pitches seem to go BOOM! a little bit, if you know what I mean. But he can be wild. I think this year he decided to be wild in the zone, which is fine in college when you throw like he does, but we'll see how it goes in the pros.

A third of the way down this Hardball Times article has a good bit on him. He's a classic high upside guy who could be Daniel Cabrera if he's not careful. And you wonder if he'll end up in the pen if he doesn't come up with a credible third pitch.

The Sox took Matt LaPorta in the 14th round - he was a projected 1st round talent with maybe the best raw power in the draft, who dropped because he has Boras as an agent.

He also dropped because (a) he has a "bad body" and (b) he's a born DH. He could easily be the second coming of Jeremy Giambi.

-- MWE

And (c), he hit .250 this year in college. Be interesting to see what happens with this signing. I'm more interested in Lars Anderson at this point, I think, though my opinion is merely a collection of other opinions.

By the way, I recommend everyone take a look at the mlb.com scouting video on Daniel Bard. I admit to not really knowing what I'm talking about, but I was very impressed with his stuff.

He looks like he repeats his delivery well, and it looks simple and easy. He works 93-94 with the fastball, and it has sick movement back in on right-handers. It's pretty cool to watch.

I can't find his HR rate, but his BB/9 has gone 2.9, 4.3, 3.5; while his K/9 has gone 6.4, 7.8, 9.5. The BB's are more under control, but not where you'd like. I've seen him pitch twice and, if you just look at his stuff and not the man throwing or exactly where the ball ends up, he's more impressive than Miller. Not say his pitches are better than Miller's or that he'll be a better pro, only that his pitches seem to go BOOM! a little bit, if you know what I mean. But he can be wild. I think this year he decided to be wild in the zone, which is fine in college when you throw like he does, but we'll see how it goes in the pros.

Everybody with half a brain knows that if you miss your location in the bigs, you're gonna get rocked everytime.

Everybody with half a brain knows that if you miss your location in the bigs, you're gonna get rocked everytime.

Not necessarily. There are plenty of guys who've had decent years/careers on the strength of excellent stuff that they couldn't control very well.

Was anyone else disappointed that Antonelli didn't fall to #27? I don't know how realistic that hope may have been, but I was starting to be convinced the Sox might get him. And he didn't even get close. Somebody in San Diego is on the ball, apparently.

Not necessarily. There are plenty of guys who've had decent years/careers on the strength of excellent stuff that they couldn't control very well.

Further, if Bard had great command, we wouldn't be talking about him right now, because he would have been one of the top 5 picks in the draft. The Sox could only get a guy with Bard's raw stuff because he has some other shortcomings.

And, you can teach command. You can't teach stuff.

I thought we were gonna get Antonelli, too. I'm happy, though, that we got Bard. He looks like he could be a helluva pitcher. and the Sox seem to have tried to add power to the system, which it is currently desperately lacking.

and the Sox seem to have tried to add power to the system, which it is currently desperately lacking.

if only we had signed our 14th round pick from last year.

I'm not saying Bard was a bad pick. Him at 28 isn't shabby. (We just have to pay him)

I'm just saying Bard has some major holes in his pitching.

I'm just saying Bard has some major holes in his pitching.

Bard was the 28th pick of the draft. You seem to be criticizing the Red Sox draftees on the basis that they're not top 5, can't-miss talents. I think the fact that the vast majority of these guys won't pan out is the basic starting point here - see philly's studies, linked all over the thread.

I'm just pissed we didn't get ALL the Papelbons. 2 out of 3 aren't bad though. I heard one of them was LEFT HANDED.

PRobably all of them are better than Rudy Seanez

"I'm just saying Bard has some major holes in his pitching."

Fewer of them than Greg Reynolds and hes got more really swell things (whatever the opposite of holes here would be) in his pitching

"
Was anyone else disappointed that Antonelli didn't fall to #27?"

Kinda sorta. A lot of people saw him a future super-utility guy so his talent might have fit more at 27 but he was expected to be popped earlier.

"He's ALREADY had a TJ. Yikes"

If his mechanics are decent and he's otherwise healthy I wouldnt be THAT scared of it at all. Its got a pretty good sucess rate and pitchers often come back stronger than before due to the rehab and the fact that the new ligament in you is 100% fresh

"And (c), he hit .250 this year in college. "

D, while the homer numbers stayed decent, he also hit ONE double this year. When you see a guys homer #s you assume hes probably got a fair amount of double too, that SLG is going to look a lot worse with that one double.

Also a guy hitting waaaay more HRs than 2bs, unless hes a big league star already, raises some Q marks w/ me

"He looks like he repeats his delivery well, and it looks simple and easy. He works 93-94 with the fastball, and it has sick movement back in on right-handers. It's pretty cool to watch."

You should see him pitch. When the first batter of the game steps in he goes behind the mound and crouchs and looks in the dirt and has a little conference with himself.

I've heard hes kindve a "far out dude" and seeing that makes me belive it

OK, I don't have to spend too much time on the strategy in the early part of the draft. It is pretty evident just by looking at the results. A nice mix of high school and collegiate talent in the first several rounds. The Sox obviously selected Place because there is no one with his A) combination of size and athletic ability and B)power, in the system. Bard was a good value pick with obvious upside, since most people didn't think he would drop out of the 1st half of the 1st round. Kris Johnson gave them a college lefty with some polish, but perhaps some upside too. Caleb Clay gave then a fresh-armed, athletic pitcher, similar to Buchholz last year. Masterson gave them a future bullpen arm that might be able to contribute in 2007. Aaron Bates gave them a polished college bat which can move quickly through the system (though I don't know his particular value to the Sox in the near future). OK, none of these things are new to anyone, blah blah blah, nice picks.

Rounds 3-8 were where it got interesting. The Sox had 3 senior signs (Cox, Richardson, Daeges), one overdraft (Jon Still), and one positionless NYC dropout with zero other options(Cabreja). The calamity inside the Soxprospects.com chat room was unconscionable at this point. Granted, the 3 seniors signs were all intriguing for their own reasons, Still was a decent talent, and Cabreja had some upside. But something was afoot. Why would the Sox, who touted the depth of high school talent prior to the draft, concede 5 picks within the first 10 rounds? Well, at that point in time, we had not gotten word about the signability issues of players like Dellin Betances, Matt Latos, Jordan Walden, and various others. With the selection of Ryan Kalish in the 9th round, the tide of the draft shifted. Kalish, a self proclaimed Atheist from New Jersey, was a pre-draft favorite of mine. After he worked out at Fenway a week ago, he told local NJ papers that he would command 2nd round money to stay away from UVa. After the Sox selection of him at 9, the dominoes began to fall into place. Lets look at picks 9-18 with an asterisk next to the signability picks:

9. Ryan Kalish (HS)*
10. Kyle Snider (HS)*
11. Brandon Belt (HS)*
12. Ryan Kouhry (C)
13. Jordan Craft (C)
14. Matt Laporta (C)*
15. Jorge Jimenez (JC)
16. Tyler Weeden (HS)*
17. William Reddick (JC)
18. Lars Anderson (HS)*

6 out of these 10 picks are legitimate signability slips who the Sox have snatched up (3 position players, 3 pitchers). Now it seems pretty clear that the Sox are going to make a good run at a handful of these guys, perhaps following all of them over the summer on their various teams with the hopes of signing 2, 3 at the most. With the addition of Carmine Giardina, who the Sox picked today, they have created a veritable handbag of high upside picks who they can take their best shot at. It's a very interesting, if unfair, strategy, and it will be fun to watch how it plays out.

To mirror the Natale thread, what numbers would these draftees have to be putting up at this point next year for you to consider the pick to be successful? Put another way, what's the best that you could reasonably expect each player to do, assuming they sign?

1. Jason Place, CF, .275/.350/.450 SAL
1. Daniel Bard, SP, 10 K/9, 3 BB/9, .6 HR/9 CAR
1s. Kris Johnson, SP, 10.5 K/9, 3 BB/9, .5 HR/9 SAL
1s. Caleb Clay, SP, 10 K/9, 3 BB/9, 1 HR/9 SAL
2. Justin Masterson, SP, 8 K/9, 2 BB/9, 0.3 HR/9, CAR
3. Aaron Bates, 1B/C/DH, .290/.380/.480, CAR
3. Bryce Cox, RP, 11 K/9, 3 BB/9, 0.5 HR/9, EL
4. Jon Still, 1B/C/DH, .275/.350/.450 CAR
5. Dustin Richardson, RP, 9 K/9, 3 BB/9, 1 HR/9, SAL
6. Zach Daeges, 3B/2B .270/.370/.400, CAR
7. Kristopher Negron, SS, .280/.340/.400, SAL
8. Rafael Cabreja, CF/RF .260/.310/.350, SAL
9. Ryah Kalish, CF/LF, .300/.350/.400, SAL
10. Kyle Snyder, SP, 8 K/9, 3 BB/9, 1 HR/9, SAL

I think Johnson starts in the CL and I would take his K/9 down by 1.5.

I would knock Cox's K rate down, maybe by 2 or 3 K's/9.

I think if Richardson starts in the SALLY league, it's a disappointment.

Cabreja probably plays next year in the GCL.

Kalish's OBP seems .10 to .15 points low.

I would take Snider's K/9 down by 1 or 2.

Just wanted to note that the Sox took the righthanded Papelbon twin (Josh) in the 49th round. Kind of neat, too bad they didn't get the other one too.

I think the HR/9 Rates are a little too optimistic for everybody.

I do like Masterson's numbers though... really low dinger rate and the lowest BB rate. Maybe he actually owns a map to the strike zone.

Dammit I wanted the left hander too. I heard he can shapeshift

I think the HR/9 Rates are a little too optimistic for everybody.

The older "project" kids in the SAL seem to do a good job with HR/9 which is why I set the bar a little higher for them.

I think if Richardson starts in the SALLY league, it's a disappointment.

While I agree most organizations would put him in the CL, the Sox seem to like their projects in the SAL to start the year. BA's writeup of the guy made me think he needed a lot of work (not that there's anything wrong with that).

I do like Masterson's numbers though... really low dinger rate and the lowest BB rate. Maybe he actually owns a map to the strike zone.

By his scouting report, he seems like he could be one of those guys to go through the CL or the FSL without giving up a HR. That's as much the environment as the pitcher, of course, but that's why I was low on his number.

6 out of these 10 picks are legitimate signability slips who the Sox have snatched up (3 position players, 3 pitchers). Now it seems pretty clear that the Sox are going to make a good run at a handful of these guys, perhaps following all of them over the summer on their various teams with the hopes of signing 2, 3 at the most. With the addition of Carmine Giardina, who the Sox picked today, they have created a veritable handbag of high upside picks who they can take their best shot at. It's a very interesting, if unfair, strategy, and it will be fun to watch how it plays out.

Great post Temple, thanks. I didn't realize that so many of those 10-20 rd signs were signability guys, and that's pretty exciting.

My understanding is that LaPorta and Andersen were 1st/2nd rounders coming into the draft - with big variability on LaPorta based on his bad seaosn - and Kalish a 3rd rounder. Do you know where the other talents would slot in?

Also, I was dicking around on the MLB scouting reports to see what I could see, and Carmine Giardina's windup hurts me physically every time I watch. His arm trails his body to a degree that looks dangerous to me - it reminds me of how I used to pitch, and if I had been able to break 70 regularly and pitch in high school, I think my arm would have fallen off.

Here is a little description of each of the "tough signs."

9th Round- Ryan Kalish- Athletic two-sport star from NJ, with a committment to UVa. Some people have compared him to Tron Nixon, of all people. He was a CF in high school, but most scouts think he will have to move to a corner position. He is asking for 2nd round money. Ranked #95 overall by BA.

10th Round- Kyle Snyder- Snyder came into the 2006 season with a chance to be a top 5 round pick. But a disappointing performance overall caused clubs to back off. He as a committment to the U of Miami that will be hard to break. The least "sexy" off all the tough signs. Ranked #67 in Florida by BA.

11th Round- Brandon Belt- A bigtime lefty, with a bigtime committment to Texas. Belt might have been a first-rounder 4 months ago. He throws in the low-90's and has a hard curve with good depth. He wore out as the season progressed, due to his slender frame. But most scouts believe that will be corrected with time. Ranked #67 overall by BA.

13th Round- Jordan Craft- That was a bad job by me leaving him off the original list. Craft is a draft-eligible sophomore from Dallas Baptist University. Craft is a sinker-slider pitcher, whose velo stays in the low 90's. There is still some projection left in him. Ranked #119 overall by BA.

14th Round- Matt Laporta- Coming into the 2006 season, Laporta was considered a top 15 pick. Injuries and underwhelming power numbers, combined with his representation, caused his stock to plummet in the draft. When on, he has light-tower power. But scouts worry about the versatility of his overall package. Ranked #38 overall by BA.

16- Tyler Weeden- Weeden is a catching prospect out Oklahoma, with a committment to Arkansas. He has a cannon for an arm, but his overall agility is lacking. His power is his best tool offensively, and he can inject some much-needed pop into the Sox system. Believed to be asking for between 400 and 700K. Ranked #196 overall by BA.

18- Lars Anderson- Anderson is the classic power-hitting LHH. He's got a good build (6'5", 200) and a sweet sing. He also has a strong commitment to Cal. Anderson is another player who could bring the Sox a big bat to aid the system's largest weakness. Ranked #41 overall by BA.

28- Carmine Giardina- A developing LHP from Florida, Giardina has a high 80's fastball with projection and a slider and changeup that can be above average offerings. His command lagged this year, compared to last, and teams decided to let him exercise his committment to Texas. He does seem more signable than his pick would portend. Ranked #107 overall by BA.

I'll be very surprised if Boston signs LaPorta, Weeden, or Anderson. All three players are likely to improve their draft stock significantly by not signing this year, and it's going to take a lot of money to convince them otherwise.

-- MWE

eh. sign them all! it's not my money

Temple,

Can you explain to me how committments have various strengths?

I'll be very surprised if Boston signs LaPorta, Weeden, or Anderson. All three players are likely to improve their draft stock significantly by not signing this year, and it's going to take a lot of money to convince them otherwise.

How different is LaPorta from Jeff Larish? Both were slugging C 1B expected to be first round picks heading into their Jr season. LaPorta was considered better, maybe much better.
Both struggled as Jrs and fell late in the draft due to perceived signability issues. Larish had a better Sr season I think, but he still ended up going in the 5th rd and signing for 220k.

Now that I type that up maybe LaPorta really is much, much better, but with the LeCroy bad body stuff coming out about LaPorta I seriously doubt LaPorta will have much of a chance to go in the top half of the 1st rd next year. He's just not nearly as good as he was perceived to be 6 months ago and a bounce back season won't change that that much. Additionally any incrase in his draft status may be largely offset by losing a ton of leverage.

If the Sox offered him 600k or something like that, I think he probably ought to take it. I don't think he has a lot of upside beyond that in the 2007 draft. Maybe he gets into the supp round and can get 800k, but the very real downside is another 250 year and he goes in the 5th rd and signs for 220k like Larish.

I don't what price the Sox have in mind for him, but if they offer in the 600-700k neighborhood it wouldn't surprise me if he signs. I do think it would be in his interest to do.

I lot of Sox fans arethinking about LaPorta or Lars Anderson as a pair because of their common position, but I think from a financial standpoint Karish and LaPorta are a similar pair. The Sox will sign one of those guys for ~600-700k and the other, who mostly fucntioned as a backup plan, will go unsigned.

We'll see Philly. Someone who claims to be close to the situation believes the Kalish deal will be done within a week and that they had agreed on a number before the draft.

Post #74 was a tour de force, temple. Thanks.

Is this going to be the Post-Draft discussion thread?

Now it is.

something just occurred to me ... i've seen it mentioned a couple times that the red sox will sign 2-3 of 6 signability guys, which makes perfect sense. so, doesn't this give them a bit of leverage? when negotiating with one of them, it is clear that the red sox can walk away from the table and give the money to one of the other signability guys. on the other hand, if they only took 2-3 of the guys they really liked and made a hard run at signing them, it is looks much worse if the red sox fail to sign even one of them. hmmm.

Danny Herrera in high A last year: 53.1 IP, 39 H, 0 HR, 12 BB, 61 K.

Of the Red Sox signability picks, they ended up signing:

Kalish (#95 BA)
Craft (#119)
Weeden (#196)
Anderson (#41)

So they sort of added a supplemental, 3rd, 4th, and 7th round pick or so.

Rainy day early in the baseball season.

Very random, Darren.

They also gave Josh Reddick and Richie Lentz (17th and 19th rounds) 6th round money.

Are there any more Papelbon brothers?