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Saturday, April 26, 2008

That Was Brilliant

Young pitcher has an excellent game through 7, up around 100 pitches. It’s debatable whether you leave him in to start the 8th. But once he puts the tying run on base, you have to pull him. He’s in uncharted territory, pitch-count wise. You’ve got your 2 best relievers warm and ready to go. But Francona wasn’t satisfied until the lead was gone. Even then, Buc stayed in for another batter, just in case his pitch count wasn’t high enough.

An extra-innings game followed by a 1-run game in the 8th and your best two relievers don’t appear in either. As my friend often says, “This is why the Red Sox will never win 100 games under Francona.”

Darren Posted: April 26, 2008 at 10:05 PM | 56 comment(s)
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   1. Vaux, A.B.D. Posted: April 26, 2008 at 10:18 PM (#2760243)
And Buchholz won't be effective in his next start, either, so Francona probably lost two games with this move. And that's the best thing that could happen. I don't want to think about the worst.
   2. I Am He, All Man Czar (TempleUSox) Posted: April 26, 2008 at 10:22 PM (#2760248)
As my friend often says, “This is why the Red Sox will never win 100 games under Francona.”
Your friends are stupid. You should counter with, "This is why we've won two championships with Francona."
   3. Dan Posted: April 26, 2008 at 10:27 PM (#2760250)
As my friend often says, “This is why the Red Sox will never win 100 games under Francona.”

I agree 100% with this. He pisses away a lot of regular season games. Whether it's for the greater good in figuring things out for the post-season and for the stretch drive or not, I don't pretend to know.

I was okay with Buchholz starting the 8th, but once the batter reached, you had to pull him. You can't give him a shot at getting the L.
   4. Biff, Red Sox Jinx Posted: April 26, 2008 at 11:07 PM (#2760286)
There was nothing wrong with leaving Buchholz in. He was cruising. This topic should have been up after YESTERDAY'S game, where never using Papelbon was inexcusable.
   5. Darren Posted: April 26, 2008 at 11:08 PM (#2760288)
I pretend to know, and I don't think he figures out much by pissing away games.

Your friends are stupid. You should counter with, "This is why we've won two championships with Francona."


First of all it was only one friend. Second, are you arguing that the kind of managing that Francona did tonight helps the team win championships? I can't imagine how. Didn't help in the present. Won't help in the future. Just a blown game, a harder worked young pitcher (who was shut down late last year), and your two best relievers sitting in the pen with nothing to do. Of course, those two will probably be unavailable tomorrow because they warmed up tonight. And they'll both pitch in a blowout early next week to get in some work.
   6. Darren Posted: April 26, 2008 at 11:11 PM (#2760291)
Biffster,

I found not using Pap there far more excusable. You don't want to waste Pap in a game you're going to lose anyway, right? And you can only use him for 1-2 IP. So you run through your other options until you get a lead or until you're running out of pitchers. Then you bring in Pap. They, of course, could have gone to Okajima and then Pap.
   7. I Am He, All Man Czar (TempleUSox) Posted: April 26, 2008 at 11:14 PM (#2760294)
No, I'm arguing that "This is why the Red Sox will never win 100 games" is such an arbitrary and unfair way of shifting the target. 100 games? Who cares. They won the division last year. They've been in the playoffs three of the last four years. And they've won two championships along the way. Every year, Theo has said, "We set out to win 95 games every year." Where does this arbitrary 100 win number come from and why is it important? One team has done it in the AL since Tito has been a manager for the Sox. Why exactly is this some goal he should be seeking to reach and blamed for if he doesn't?
   8. Darren Posted: April 26, 2008 at 11:20 PM (#2760298)
Who set the arbitrary number at 95? It's well within reason that the Sox could win 95 and miss the playoffs. It's even more likely that 95 wins could hurt their seeding.

What's more, I don't see anywhere in my post that says failing to win 100 games is a failure. It's just that this sort of managing costs games but don't pay any real dividend. It's not like he took out Buc only to protect is arm (which wilted at the end of last year BTW), only to see an inferior reliever blow the game. If that happens, you say "tough break, but we'll be better in the long run" and move on. No, he pushed Buc to extreme limits at the expense of two relievers who were ready and are likely to be more effective.
   9. Fear & Whisky keeps Phil Coorey going Posted: April 26, 2008 at 11:26 PM (#2760299)
If Navarro was correctly called out in the 8th by the mutt behind the plate, we wouldn't be here...
If the Sox could have found a way to score more than a run off Jackson, we wouldn't be here...
   10. Darren Posted: April 26, 2008 at 11:30 PM (#2760300)
Those are fine points but not really relevant to the decision. The game got to where it was and there was a decision to be made. Whether it was a good on or a bad one has nothing to do with whether the offense should have scored more or whether the ump blew a call earlier.
   11. I Am He, All Man Czar (TempleUSox) Posted: April 26, 2008 at 11:36 PM (#2760305)
Who set the arbitrary number at 95? It's well within reason that the Sox could win 95 and miss the playoffs. It's even more likely that 95 wins could hurt their seeding.
The general manager, like I said. The person who builds with the goal of winning 95 games every year. And it isn't arbitrary. If primates who live in their parents' basement can project a team's W-L record, surely one of the most enlightened front offices in baseball can.

No, he pushed Buc to extreme limits at the expense of two relievers who were ready and are likely to be more effective.

Extreme limits? He was at 110 pitches. He had Navarro frozen on what should have been a strike 3 call prior to his reaching base and he embarrased Crawford in the at-bat right after Iwamura hit the home run. He clearly wasn't tiring. He even said in his post-game interview that he felt he was getting stronger as the game progressed. He made a bad pitch. That happens. It could have happened with Papelbon or Okajima.

There's obviously nothing Francona or anyone here can do or say which will make you think he's a good manager. But at least pretend to find something substantive to criticize him about instead of some arbitrary win number which there is no basis for.
   12. Fear & Whisky keeps Phil Coorey going Posted: April 26, 2008 at 11:40 PM (#2760306)
Fair enough Darren.

He should not have left Clay in to face bat flip boy .
   13. Tuque Snider, Resident Steriod Abuser Posted: April 27, 2008 at 12:44 AM (#2760334)
I sort of figured Francona was hoping for extra innings, and therefore trying to use his starter as much as possible in preparation for a long game. If you think about it in that light, it's still controversial, but at least it makes sense.
   14. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: April 27, 2008 at 02:23 AM (#2760377)
I keep saying we won inspite of Francona, but nobody F!@3ing believes me.
   15. Dave Cyprian Posted: April 27, 2008 at 09:04 AM (#2760405)
Bigger picture is that Buccholz is a good one. Gonna be a good one, is a good one. Go sox.
   16. Weekly Journalist_ Posted: April 27, 2008 at 09:18 AM (#2760407)
You think that's bad? The Yankees lost a game when Joe Girardi decided to pitch Ross Ohlendorf in a tie game in the bottom of the 9th with Mariano Rivera sitting in the bullpen playing pocket pool.
   17. Third True Outcome Posted: April 27, 2008 at 09:30 AM (#2760409)
Given how he struck out Crawford to end the inning right after the home run, I don't know that it's fair to say that Buchholz wasn't in pretty good shape. As much as that loss was a punch to the gut, I can't get that worked up about not going to the pen right there. I'm more pissed we didn't score more than one run. Iwamura put a good swing on one pitch. That just happens sometimes.
   18. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: April 27, 2008 at 10:08 AM (#2760412)
I didn't see the game, so I can't speak to it, but it seems clearly like a judgment call. Pitch count is, at the game-by-game level, pretty much a useless measure of pitcher effectiveness or fatigue. It's useful because over the course of a season, it's a pretty good metric, but if we're talking about one game and one pitcher, the call is really on the manager, pitching coach, and catcher to evaluate their pitcher (with his input). It sounds like there's disagreement among posters here as to exactly how Buchholz looked and what should have been done. Hard to say much more than that.

This isn't Grady-Pedro, it seems, where anyone who watched for half a pitch could see he was done. (And as with that, it's a judgment call, not a pitch count call.)
   19. Fridas Boss Posted: April 27, 2008 at 10:38 AM (#2760416)
This is classic after-the-fact armchair 2nd guessing. Buchholz was pitching GREAT. He made 1 bad pitch. Place your blame on the offense for scoring 1 run.
   20. ocd ss Posted: April 27, 2008 at 11:01 AM (#2760422)
Tito pointed out that Iwamura has reverse split, and is having more problems with RHP than LHP. Going to your closer vs Iwamura (who was hitting around .200) is a panic move if you wanted it, and just second guessing based on the (somewhat implausible) actual results.

Buchholz was cruising, looked great, and was the best RHPing option available if you don't go to Pap (who people forget can pitch all the time in the playoffs becuase he's not be overloaded with work and called in every time someone gives up a bloop single to a slow running catcher with 2 out in the 8th).

If the offense pulls it's head out of it's a$$ we're looking at 2 much more satisfying games.
   21. SvenTheMoose97 Posted: April 27, 2008 at 11:22 AM (#2760429)
113 pitches is hardly extreme limits. He was still maintaining consistent velocity on his fastball and wasn't having any problems getting the ball over the plate. Seems to me that it was a pretty easy 113 pitches. And as for the idea that this outing will impact his next one, this isn't Schilling. Buccholz isn't 40 years old and 113 pitches is a great deal fewer than 130. Buccholz is probably going to be sent down to Pawtucket as soon as Colon is ready anyway so it's not like this is hurting his ability to be ready for any potential October baseball.

If you really want to ##### about some poor managing, then ##### about bringing Lopez in for the seventh in a tight game and then when he (inevitabely) gets himself into a jam, bringing in Delcarmen, who had spent the last 2 days with his head over a toilet, to try and bail him out.
   22. Toby Posted: April 27, 2008 at 11:48 AM (#2760436)
He’s in uncharted territory, pitch-count wise ... But Francona wasn’t satisfied until the lead was gone.

Indeed, Francona is obviously a Yankee stooge who is trying to lose games. And no young pitcher had ever thrown more than 100 pitches in a game until last night.

I can't imagine how

Actually I would say you have a pretty vivid imagination. I'm sure you can come up with something if you try.
   23. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: April 27, 2008 at 11:52 AM (#2760437)
Buccholz is probably going to be sent down to Pawtucket as soon as Colon is ready anyway so it's not like this is hurting his ability to be ready for any potential October baseball.

This team needs a long reliever, somebody that can go 2-3 IP at a time (with enough rest). I think Colon will start, so make Buch or Lester that guy.
   24. Biff, Red Sox Jinx Posted: April 27, 2008 at 12:01 PM (#2760441)
I certainly hope Buchholz isn't sent to AAA or the bullpen for Colon. He appears to be at least our third best starter right now.
   25. plink Posted: April 27, 2008 at 12:12 PM (#2760446)
This team needs a long reliever, somebody that can go 2-3 IP at a time (with enough rest).

That's what Kyle Snyder is for!
   26. ocd ss Posted: April 27, 2008 at 12:30 PM (#2760449)
I certainly hope Buchholz isn't sent to AAA or the bullpen for Colon. He appears to be at least our third best starter right now.


I think you need to keep his innings down so he can pitch well in Sept and (knock on wood) Oct, rather than have him on the shelf since he bumped up against his IP limit. Since Buchholz really seems to need a bit of time to get into a groove I'm not sure how well a "planned relief" roll would work, not to mention that the other starters would probably chaffe at the idea of having a rookie caddy for them.
   27. kevin Posted: April 27, 2008 at 04:42 PM (#2760765)
Who set the arbitrary number at 95? It's well within reason that the Sox could win 95 and miss the playoffs. It's even more likely that 95 wins could hurt their seeding.


OK then. The only real goal is to win championships and Francona is batting .500 with the Red Sox. You have a problem with that?

Same old Darren. Sees a cloud in every silver lining.
   28. SvenTheMoose97 Posted: April 27, 2008 at 05:09 PM (#2760780)
Isn't 95 the number of wins that DePodesta arrived at as the number of wins that theoretically should ensure a spot in the playoffs? And somehow I don't envision DePodesta as the kind of guy that just pulls arbitrary numbers out of the air.
   29. Darren Posted: April 27, 2008 at 06:56 PM (#2760834)
Yanks won 1-0 today. Wang went the first 7 then gave way to the Yankees' killer relief tandem. What a concept!
   30. Darren Posted: April 27, 2008 at 10:25 PM (#2760938)
I didn't see the game, so I can't speak to it, but it seems clearly like a judgment call. Pitch count is, at the game-by-game level, pretty much a useless measure of pitcher effectiveness or fatigue.It's useful because over the course of a season, it's a pretty good metric, but if we're talking about one game and one pitcher, the call is really on the manager, pitching coach, and catcher to evaluate their pitcher (with his input).


Observation may be better than pitch counts or it may not. I haven't seen anything that proves this to be the case. Is there something?

As for observations of pitchers, it's been my experience that fans and commentators tend to fall into a certain pattern when a guy is throwing a very good game. In these cases, when the pitcher gives up a HR or a key hit, they tend to say "He made one mistake all day and it cost him the game!" They easily forget or gloss over other mistakes he made. Remy did this in the 9th, when Clay got the flyout by Bartlett. Clay's pitch caught way too much of the plate but Bartlett missed it and flew out. The pitch to Navarro was quite hittable as well.


On an unrelated note, Sox pitchers struck out 15 in 8 IP today and lost. It will be nice if this team can use the off day to get healthy.
   31. Mattbert Posted: April 28, 2008 at 05:17 AM (#2761134)
I'm with Darren on this. There's really nothing to be gained by leaving Buchholz in the game at that point. He's a young pitcher whose mileage you're trying to limit, and his pitch count is starting to creep up. Letting him start the inning is fine since it's the bottom of the order, but he should be on a one-baserunner leash.

Okajima hadn't pitched in the previous game and had only appeared in one of the last three. Papelbon hadn't pitched since the first game of the Angels series! Games like that are why you have guys like that on your roster. Use them.
   32. kevin Posted: April 28, 2008 at 10:18 AM (#2761232)
On an unrelated note, Sox pitchers struck out 15 in 8 IP today and lost.


It was Francona's fault they didn't score, Darren.
   33. Sometimes it Rains (sj) Posted: April 28, 2008 at 01:30 PM (#2761465)
Is Edwin Jackson for real? He has really impressed this year.
   34. Valentine Posted: April 29, 2008 at 11:10 AM (#2762279)
The Rays are for real -- amazing the difference that a major league defense can make to a pitching staff. Edwin Jackson doesn't impress me that much, however. Other than his H/IP, his peripherals look more typical for a #4 starter. That is still better than he has been in the past.

I'll give Francona a pass on this one. The bullpen has been generally overworked and inconsistent over the past week, so riding a hot starter for an extra batter or two makes a lot of sense. Okajima probably would have allowed three runs, not just the two. And which move is more likely to wear out the team in the long run? Working Buchholz up to 110 pitches? Or bringing Okajima out AGAIN? There are times when you just have to trust the manager. I would feel very differently if Buchholz was at 120+ pitches.
   35. tfbg9 Posted: April 29, 2008 at 02:49 PM (#2762677)
I think Darren ought to manage the Red Sox, rather than that other idiot who was at the helm for the 2 world titles.

/rolls eyes

For Pete's sake, sometimes you just lose.
   36. Gary Geiger Counter Posted: April 29, 2008 at 09:22 PM (#2763414)
There! Papelbon is in the game in the 9th. Eveyone happy?????????
   37. tfbg9 Posted: April 29, 2008 at 09:49 PM (#2763574)
Now we are. Hey Jon.
   38. Gary Geiger Counter Posted: April 29, 2008 at 10:37 PM (#2763717)
Hey, tfbg. Any tips for Saturday?
   39. Fear & Whisky keeps Phil Coorey going Posted: April 29, 2008 at 10:37 PM (#2763718)
That Was Brilliant


Indeed!
   40. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: April 30, 2008 at 01:07 AM (#2763869)
I think Darren ought to manage the Red Sox, rather than that other idiot who was at the helm for the 2 world titles.


Oh yeah, hire a White guy, that's not racist.
   41. tfbg9 Posted: April 30, 2008 at 01:45 PM (#2764262)
Hey, tfbg. Any tips for Saturday?


Big Brown, Pyro, Dennis of Cork. There're underlays, sez the resident savant here. Go with exotic bets.
   42. Nasty Nate Posted: April 30, 2008 at 06:49 PM (#2764605)
Has anyone been listening to the games on the radio recently? How annoying are those Gloria Estefan ads that come every inning or two and feature many painfully annoying snippets of terrible songs. If I hear the beginning of that commercial I rush to switch the channell. And these commercials are on over and over again. Are Sox fans really the target audience for ads for this concert? seems a strange place to splurge your marketing budget.
   43. Gary Geiger Counter Posted: April 30, 2008 at 06:55 PM (#2764608)
It's the casino that's paying for the ads if I'm not misaken, NN. Beautiful woman, but her stuff definitely has that '80s pop feel to it. It wound fit in right with the Weekend At Bernie's soundtrack.
   44. Nasty Nate Posted: April 30, 2008 at 07:26 PM (#2764632)
It's the casino that's paying for the ads if I'm not misaken


it must be part of a secret plan to make the regular Foxwoods jingle seem fresh and tranquil by comparison.
   45. tfbg9 Posted: May 01, 2008 at 05:29 PM (#2765861)
Oh, and Z Humor, GGC. Go nuts.
   46. Nasty Nate Posted: May 01, 2008 at 08:24 PM (#2766001)
dear Red Sox: SCORE SOME GODDAMNED RUNS PLEASE!!!

as of this moment, only 4 runs in their last 40 innings.
   47. Nasty Nate Posted: May 01, 2008 at 09:54 PM (#2766050)
now 4 runs in 50 innings. (they havent played 10 innings since my last post, i had just mis-calculated)
   48. Mattbert Posted: May 02, 2008 at 07:14 AM (#2766236)
I know this is a bit far in advance, but I'm going to be back home around Boston for a while in August if anyone wants to get together for a meetup: going to Fenway or any of the minor league parks, or just tipping back a couple beers, whatever.
   49. Dave Cyprian Posted: May 02, 2008 at 12:47 PM (#2766519)
All you need to know about the New York Yankees: Batting clean-up for the Yankees is rookie outfielder Shelley Duncan. The Yankees lost again last night and were swept at home by the Tigers.

All you need to know about Shelley Duncan: Shelley is a right-handed outfielder, currently employed as the New York Yankees clean-up hitter. He has 91 career at-bats, and this year he is hitting .176 with no home runs.

So much for a $200 million payroll, suckers.
   50. Darren Posted: May 02, 2008 at 09:42 PM (#2767155)
And they're winning.
   51. TVerik Posted: May 02, 2008 at 09:46 PM (#2767167)
*scoffs*

like, he's a first-baseman!
   52. willcarrollsux Posted: May 02, 2008 at 09:53 PM (#2767187)
All you need to know about Shelley Duncan: Shelley is a right-handed outfielder, currently employed as the New York Yankees clean-up hitter.


Yankee games: 31
Yankee games with Shelley Duncan as cleanup hitter: 1
   53. TVerik Posted: May 02, 2008 at 10:06 PM (#2767228)
And all-importantly, their record with the Shell as the cleanup hitter: 1-0
   54. Dave Cyprian Posted: May 03, 2008 at 11:43 AM (#2767753)
Jorge Posada's struggles have me thinking about the impending contract negotiations with Varitek. Frankly, the Sox would be foolish to go long term with him again. He still has Boras if I recall, so I wonder if they even have a chance to sign him to a high-value two year deal, with an incentive-based option year. If not, what other options do we have?

I suppose a 3-year deal with an option year... well... Hmm. Are there other catchers to acquire by trade next winter?
   55. ellsbury my heart at wounded knee Posted: May 03, 2008 at 12:37 PM (#2767777)
I suppose a 3-year deal with an option year... well... Hmm. Are there other catchers to acquire by trade next winter?

That's the thing - I don't see how the Red Sox can just let Varitek walk. Most of the catchers available in trade will probably be the Olivos, Barretts, and Molinas of the world. Even a declining Varitek is still probably better than those guys. Even if he hits the same as a Molina, he does bring the team leadership and (IMO undeserved) good defensive reputation. I wonder if any other team would give Varitek a big 3 year deal, anyway. Most of the bigger market teams seem fairly set on catchers. I suppose he could end up on the Giants?

The only team that might have interesting catchers to deal are the Rangers, and I imagine any of Salty/Ramirez/Teagarden would come at a very steep price, if they were available at all.
   56. I Am He, All Man Czar (TempleUSox) Posted: May 03, 2008 at 01:35 PM (#2767800)
Which is why you just employ a Kottaras/Brown platoon.
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