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Sunday, May 27, 2007

The 2B Debate

With things going so well lately, it’s hard to find any point of controversy on this team. One spot that’s going to get sticky, though, is 2B. Alex Cora still has very nice numbers overall in 2007, (.319 .367 .514 ), which are far better than Dustin Pedroia’s (.279 .365 .396). Pedroia, however, has been the much better hitter in May, putting up a .375 .426 .518 to Cora’s .298 .346 .362. And Pedroia has a pedigree that suggests that he will continue to be a better player. Both have been excellent on defense so far.

At what point does Cora stop getting 1/3 of the starts and getting put in as a PH for Pedroia (without the opposite happening)? Under normal circumstances, this would be a pretty difficult decision to make. But this particular situation is further compiclated by the fact that Cora is widely considered a very smart player and one who brings tangibles beyond his stats. He is clearly one of his manager’s favorites for these very reasons. Will we see Cora returned to a bench role at some point this season? When, if it all, should it happen?

On a related note, will we ever see Pedroia leading off? And will Remy try to assassinate him at any point this season?

Sidenote: I noticed that during the postgame Eric Frede, while showing the long beautiful 12-pitch AB in which Pedroia homered, felt it necessary to point out “Well, of course you can get down on Pedroia for his swing and his approach, but when he does actually make contact, it goes a long way.” How well will Pedroia have to hit for this idea to go away?

Darren Posted: May 27, 2007 at 06:42 PM | 160 comment(s)
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1. The Piehole of David Wells Posted: May 27, 2007 at 08:41 PM (#2380909)

in his first full year in the majors and as long as cora isn't a black hole offensively, i see no reason to simply anoint pedroia the 2B right now. he seems to like adversity, so perhaps this will light a fire under his a$$. as to cora being tito's favorite: pedroia would be if he did the things cora's doing this year. so not to worry. it can't continue.

2. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: May 27, 2007 at 08:46 PM (#2380912)

Maybe the fact that Alex Cora is starting 1/3 of the games is what making Pedroia good? He's getting plenty of rest? i don't nkow, as long as Cora doesn't start against lefties, I'm OK.

P.S. I never want to see Cora pinch hit for Pedroia though. They SHOULD have WILY MO pinch hit for Cora/Pedroia, and have the other guy on the bench come no as a defensive sub.

3. Elevate Phil Coorey Later Posted: May 27, 2007 at 08:47 PM (#2380913)

What a great at bat by the little man. LOved it!

4. Darren Posted: May 27, 2007 at 08:59 PM (#2380917)

in his first full year in the majors and as long as cora isn't a black hole offensively, i see no reason to simply anoint pedroia the 2B right now.

Who's anointing him? It would be a case of him winning the job.

he seems to like adversity, so perhaps this will light a fire under his a$$.

What would that fire do for him? Would he hit .400 instead of .375? Would he move up from the 3rd best 2B by ZR to 1st?

Maybe the fact that Alex Cora is starting 1/3 of the games is what making Pedroia good? He's getting plenty of rest? i don't nkow, as long as Cora doesn't start against lefties, I'm OK.

Why would a young healthy player need rest?

.S. I never want to see Cora pinch hit for Pedroia though. They SHOULD have WILY MO pinch hit for Cora/Pedroia, and have the other guy on the bench come no as a defensive sub.

That wouldn't bother me, but I'm not certain that Wily Mo's a better hitter than Pedroia.

5. Biff, Red Sox Jinx Posted: May 27, 2007 at 09:02 PM (#2380921)

I'm with Darren on this one. I think Cora's starts should be halved, to 1/6 of the 2B starts, but he might also pick up ~1/6 of the SS starts to spell Lugo more often.

6. Mike Hampton's #1 Fan Posted: May 27, 2007 at 09:15 PM (#2380932)

As long as both players are playing well, it's not a big deal if Pedroia doesn't start every day (and it's probably a good thing for him to get some rest, like Wok points out). If Cora falls off a cliff offensively and then Tito keeps giving him a third of the starts; or if Pedroia endures a modest slump at the plate and promptly gets benched, then there's a problem.

Of course, given the way Lugo's been hitting lately, maybe the solution is just to play Cora at SS more often.

7. Darren Posted: May 27, 2007 at 09:29 PM (#2380937)

Cora fell off hard a few weeks ago--we'll see if it lasts.

I still give Tito credit for keeping Pedroia in the lineup most of the time when he was struggling, but oddly he seemed to start benching him more when warmed up.

8. cminny Posted: May 27, 2007 at 09:36 PM (#2380939)

If Cora falls off a cliff offensively and then Tito keeps giving him a third of the starts ... then there's a problem

As Darren says, it looks as if he's already fallen off the cliff.

April OPS: 1207
May OPS: 708
Career OPS: 661</pre>
Since he has headed back to his career average, there's good reason to think May is more indicative of what he'll do going forward. Still, I like the idea of some rest since -- 1/6 sounds right, maybe 2/7 if there isn't a day off that week.

9. Darren Posted: May 27, 2007 at 10:08 PM (#2380955)

I'm not being sarcastic or snarky or whatever here: why does a 23-year-old need rest more than the 1 day a week the schedule gives him? He's not playing wide receiver for the Patriots or throwing 9 IP.

10. kevin Posted: May 27, 2007 at 10:14 PM (#2380959)

I'm not being sarcastic or snarky or whatever here: why does a 23-year-old need rest more than the 1 day a week the schedule gives him?

So that the veteran utility man doesn't feel stiffed during the hottest streak of his career, that's why.

11. Darren Posted: May 27, 2007 at 10:19 PM (#2380960)

that's not for the sake of rest.

12. villageidiom Posted: May 27, 2007 at 10:24 PM (#2380962)

why does a 23-year-old need rest more than the 1 day a week the schedule gives him?

173 games is a lot to play for someone accustomed to the minor league schedule. He played 142 games in 2006 (Boston and the minors combined), but he slumped big-time at the tail end. If they didn't have someone as competent as Cora to fill in, it might be a different story.

13. Mike Hampton's #1 Fan Posted: May 27, 2007 at 10:42 PM (#2380966)

If Cora continues to hit like he has in May, he should definitely start to sit more. And I'd agree that it's much more likely that he'll hit like he has in May rather than in April; his great start has masked just how bad he's been lately.

Rest is a tricky thing, and while I don't want to coddle Pedroia too much, I'm also not inclined to take too many chances with an 11-game lead or whatever it is now. Like folks have said, it's his first full major-league season; he plays a physically demanding position; in these circumstances, if he gets an extra day off every week, or every other week, to make sure he's fresh in September and October, I'm fine with that. Of course, even an extra day off every week" means Cora or whoever is only getting a sixth of the starts, rather than a third, so there you go.

14. Biff, Red Sox Jinx Posted: May 27, 2007 at 10:49 PM (#2380969)

So that the veteran utility man doesn't feel stiffed during the hottest streak of his career, that's why.

But that hot streak is over.

15. tfbg9 Posted: May 27, 2007 at 10:52 PM (#2380970)

I was going to post something along the lines of #12, that he might wear down, not being use to so many games a year, being so teeny tiny puny and all.

I don't have any problem with the 2B rotation so far, on balance its helped the club. Cora's a halfway decent player who'll take a BB when offered, but incidentally a player one who has a fairly significant reverse platoon split, out of a sample size that seems large enough. The reverse split makes him slightly less useful in this particular rotation, I suppose.

Pedroia's becoming quite the Pest, kinda like advertised--seems to be right "on" his ZIPS, Marcels, etc., too lazy to look it up.

16. John DiFool2 Posted: May 27, 2007 at 11:25 PM (#2380979)

I think Pedroia should be getting as many plate appearances as possible. I know what his MLE is and right now he is hitting almost exactly what his projection was. But IMNSHO this kid has a pretty good upside, and (as he showed today) might very well start to hit for significant power somewhere down the line. We know what Cora will do (nothing special) and any time he takes away from Dustin is time that Dustin should need to continue to develop. Right now he has an 8/14 K/W ratio, and strikes out in only 1 out of 13 at-bats, which for a rookie is pretty special. And if he needs so much rest why has Manny been our Ironman so far this year?

17. JB H Posted: May 27, 2007 at 11:25 PM (#2380980)

Cora just seems to be getting starts against tough righties. Halladay and Wang types. I don't really have a problem with that. There's not much of a difference between Pedroia and Cora against RHP.

If the Sox pick up a couple more games in the next couple weeks and Francona starts managing for the future/playoffs I'll bet Pedroia starts as often as Lugo.

18. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: May 28, 2007 at 12:16 AM (#2380998)

MORE WILY MO is what I care about.

19. The Josecruz Blues (GGC) Posted: May 28, 2007 at 01:55 AM (#2381039)

Have Cora spell Lugo from time to itime.

20. Darren Posted: May 28, 2007 at 07:22 AM (#2381121)

Okay, I see why people want him to rest now. I don't agree that that should be more than 1 game every week or two, though. My concern is that Pedroia is not going to be able to sustain hot streaks if he starts to get sat down too much. Also, I'd be more inclined to start Pedroia over Cora vs. tough pitchers of any stripe. He's got an excellent approach and quick reflexes.

I think he's turning into Joe Sewell Jr., which is a very good thing.

21. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: May 28, 2007 at 07:38 AM (#2381128)

I'd like to see Wily Mo pinch hit more often, either for Cora, Lugo, or Crisp.

22. villageidiom Posted: May 28, 2007 at 07:38 AM (#2381129)

MORE WILY MO is what I care about.

ICW has a fever. And the only prescription is MORE WILY MO!

23. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: May 28, 2007 at 07:39 AM (#2381130)

Also, Wily mo should pinch hit for Mirabelli.

You can't edit posts in therapy? BS.

Actually, I have Okajima Wife fever right now. That woman is TEH HAWT

24. villageidiom Posted: May 28, 2007 at 07:50 AM (#2381134)

I demand evidence.

25. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: May 28, 2007 at 07:53 AM (#2381136)

http://npb.club.tw/movie.php?no=310

26. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: May 28, 2007 at 07:55 AM (#2381138)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yztMxNQ7PBQ

27. PJ Martinez Posted: May 28, 2007 at 07:56 AM (#2381139)

No wonder he wants to be a hero in the dark.

What's the story behind that video?

28. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: May 28, 2007 at 07:58 AM (#2381142)

I have no idea, but Okajima's had his ups and downs in big situations in Japan. He's been the goat and the hero before.

29. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: May 28, 2007 at 07:59 AM (#2381143)

i still can't believe Okajima is a fellow Japanese Porn enthusiast. His wife looks like THAT.

30. PJ Martinez Posted: May 28, 2007 at 08:30 AM (#2381151)

The other 2B debate:

OPS+ 102-- Pedroia
OPS+ 83 -- Cano

31. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: May 28, 2007 at 08:32 AM (#2381152)

The other debate:

Okajima's Wife vs. Matsuzaka's Wife.

32. The Ghost of Sox Fans Past Posted: May 28, 2007 at 11:06 AM (#2381224)

Yes, have Cora play SS more as well.

If this is the biggest problem the Sox have, then we're lucky.

33. John DiFool2 Posted: May 28, 2007 at 12:18 PM (#2381254)

I have no idea, but Okajima's had his ups and downs in big situations in Japan. He's been the goat and the hero before.

Any closer worth his salt has had bad moments-Mo vs. the Sox in '04, Goose vs. Brett on several occasions, etc. Pitch long
enough and you'll screw up on the big stage sooner or later.

34. JoelW Iz in Ur Baseball Posted: May 28, 2007 at 04:31 PM (#2381455)

The Pedroia approach meme just kills me. 8 Ks in 111 ABs, and 125 PAs! That's a great contact rate, one that is indicative of a .300 hitter (especially for somebody who swings that hard!). He's also 3rd in baseball among qualified 2nd baseman in ZR.

As a slight hijack, Coco is also high up there, and has looked better out there. Kevin, even you think he's looked better, no? Being the optimist I am, I'm relatively optimistic about Coco.

35. PJ Martinez Posted: May 28, 2007 at 04:36 PM (#2381460)

After a .274 OBP (and .235 BA) in April, Coco's managed a .330 OBP in May, even though his BA's only gone up less than 20 points (to .253).

He also seems to score about half the time he gets on base-- despite his poor numbers overall, he's scored just as much as Lowell and Manny, and trails only Youk and Ortiz in that category.

Plus, his defense looks pretty good, in my opinion. So all may not be lost.

36. kevin Posted: May 28, 2007 at 04:39 PM (#2381463)

Kevin, even you think he's looked better, no?

Yeah, I don't think he's this bad. Plus, he's playing good defense so that's something.

I can hang in there with a glove man in center until Ellsbury is ready as long as they're winning.

37. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: May 28, 2007 at 04:41 PM (#2381464)

Yeah, I expect Pedroia will starting taking the majority of ABs at 2B pretty soon. He hasn't been uniformly great in May, but instead has been streaky, and so the May 1st endpoint isn't probably the active one for Tito. Either way, Alex Cora is Alex Cora, and Dustin Pedroia is Dustin Pedroia. I expect they'll be back in their rightful roles soon - and I think it's arguable that challenging Pedroia with Cora's starts made a good bit of sense.

38. PJ Martinez Posted: May 28, 2007 at 04:44 PM (#2381469)

"fewer" than 20 points, not "less" than. granted most of the english-speaking world seems to disagree.

39. Darren Posted: May 28, 2007 at 05:19 PM (#2381491)

Who is this JoelW guy?

40. JoelW Iz in Ur Baseball Posted: May 28, 2007 at 05:24 PM (#2381493)

I suppose I should elaborate a bit on Coco. One, I'm encouraged by his contact rate increasing significantly in May. In April he struck out 13 times in 72 PAs. In May he has struck out 13 times in 106 PAs. For Coco, that's huge. He can often leg out hits, so just getting the ball in play is a big improvement. He is also walking more, 11 times in May instead of 3. He's historically been a very slow started as somebody pointed out in a previous thread. If his BABIP regresses to his career mean, he'll be valuable at the plate, which I fear we'll need when Lowell inevitably gets cold and Youkilis regresses.

41. JoelW Iz in Ur Baseball Posted: May 28, 2007 at 05:31 PM (#2381499)

Darren, I used to post a lot, up through 2005 I guess, not like you and Mikael or anything, but w/ a lot of frequency. Job/traveling/life reduced my posting a lot. But for the 03-05 seasons I was definitely around a lot, and I guess last spring quite a bit too, in the arguments about whether or not the coco/marte trade was a good one.

42. Mattbert Posted: May 28, 2007 at 05:58 PM (#2381515)

I haven't posted much here in last 18 months or so either, but I definitely remember JoelW from the "old" days. I think that may be due in large part to his subtitle; certified Red Sox optimists were not exactly in the mainstream circa 2003.

The carping about Pedroia's approach must be almost entirely a product of how hard he swings. The guy has the best BB/K ratio of anyone on the team (by a healthy margin) and averages over 4 pitches seen per PA (4.10, which puts him right between Youkilis and Ortiz by that measure). How often has the NESN crew (and/or national crews) mentioned how difficult Mike Lowell has been to strike out this year? And yet Pedroia, who strikes out even less often, has a problem with his approach. I think it must be "look at the short guy swinging from his heels" syndrome. [Insert joke about Pedroia needing to swing from his heels to hit those little texas leaguers over the infield.]

Crisp looks like he's taking better routes to more balls this year. I've missed more than a few broadcasts due to a killer work schedule lately; has he had many head-scratching routes like he did in 2006 thusfar?

43. Templeusox has reached his genetic threshold Posted: May 28, 2007 at 06:02 PM (#2381517)

has he had many head-scratching routes like he did in 2006 thusfar?

No, but he is 2nd in the majors in defensive win shares.

44. Mattbert Posted: May 28, 2007 at 06:05 PM (#2381521)

The way he's played the field in the games I've watched, that doesn't surprise me at all. He's looked very solid for the most part and downright brilliant at times.

45. Biff, Red Sox Jinx Posted: May 28, 2007 at 06:06 PM (#2381522)

A Mattbert siting!

46. Biff, Red Sox Jinx Posted: May 28, 2007 at 06:07 PM (#2381523)

That was interesting. I started to type "sighting", then 'corrected' myself even though "sighting" is correct, not "siting". Stupid me.

47. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: May 28, 2007 at 06:16 PM (#2381528)

Yeah, I think Joel might pre-date me on BP, but I don't quite remember. I know he was around for the Grady wars. I was on the mildly pro-Grady side. I was also an Iraq War quasi-supporter. It was not a strong decision-making period for me.

48. Mattbert Posted: May 28, 2007 at 06:17 PM (#2381529)

Hi, Biff. I've been around more in the last few weeks; still not posting all that much aside from the occasional comment in Bullpen Mechanics. The stuff that Carlos has been doing is really interesting, so I've spent most of my Primer time going through his backlog and trying to read through a few of the threads in ST. Mad <3 for the minor league threads, by the way. Great feature.

Enough hijacking, though. I'll pop in for the Game Chatter in a bit.

49. Darren Posted: May 28, 2007 at 06:17 PM (#2381530)

Joel,

I know who you are! I was joking because you haven't been around in a while.

50. Mister High Standards Posted: May 28, 2007 at 06:28 PM (#2381532)

I see no problem with the way the second base at bats have been divided up. Maybe give Dustin a small increase, and Lugo a small decrease to keep Coras time constant.

I really can't complain about any of the player ussage at all. I think it has been pretty great.

51. Biff, Red Sox Jinx Posted: May 28, 2007 at 06:57 PM (#2381555)

Joel,

I know who you are! I was joking because you haven't been around in a while.

This season, there hasn't be a great need for a Certified Optimist.

52. Joe Bivens, Ditch Digger Posted: May 28, 2007 at 07:02 PM (#2381558)

This season, there hasn't be a great need for a Certified Optimist.

Don't be so sure. Schilling has looked awful lately, and we don't know if Beckett will stay healthy. Things could unravel quickly.

53. jim in providence Posted: May 28, 2007 at 07:02 PM (#2381559)

I know who you are! I was joking because you haven't been around in a while.

Darren, that was my take. Even a very occasional poster/somewhat-more-involved-thread-reader like me recognized Joel's handle. So I blame Joel. Who the hell is this guy, anyway?!

Yes, mea culpa, I bought into the "Pedroia's swing" meme. Too much Donnie Sadler will do that to you.

54. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: May 28, 2007 at 07:19 PM (#2381580)

OPTIMISM IS FOR PUSSIES

55. jim in providence Posted: May 28, 2007 at 07:29 PM (#2381594)

OPTIMISM IS FOR PUSSIES

Interesting, coming from the guy who recently disclosed that he lives in a "Male Dorm."

56. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: May 28, 2007 at 07:35 PM (#2381604)

I could try to go live in the female dorm, and get arrested

57. Mattbert Posted: May 28, 2007 at 07:45 PM (#2381620)

What's with all these funky hops off the infield? The groundskeeper's gonna get stuffed into a locker after the game if this keeps up.

58. Mattbert Posted: May 28, 2007 at 07:49 PM (#2381622)

...and I'm posting in the wrong thread. Need to shake the rust off.

59. jim in providence Posted: May 28, 2007 at 08:35 PM (#2381705)

I could try to go live in the female dorm, and get arrested

Not very optimistic! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor ...?

60. ian Posted: May 28, 2007 at 09:04 PM (#2381782)

Pedroia, however, has been the much better hitter in May, putting up a .375 .426 .518 to Cora’s .298 .346 .362.

Uh, obviously Pedroia should be benched when hitting .375/.426/.518 in the current month. "Debate"?

61. SoSH U at work Posted: May 28, 2007 at 09:10 PM (#2381800)

Uh, obviously Pedroia should be benched when hitting .375/.426/.518 in the current month. "Debate"?

Sometimes it helps to read past the first paragraph.

62. villageidiom Posted: May 28, 2007 at 11:29 PM (#2382180)

OK, so Ortiz has some funky congratulation routine for everyone it seems. Tonight after Pedroia scored in the 8th, he came back to the dugout and got an air-hug from Ortiz. Pedroia hugged Ortiz around the midsection, and Ortiz hugged the air above Pedroia's head. Pedroia isn't that short; Ortiz had to reach up in order to miss Pedroia completely. Still, I thought it was hilarious.

Anyway, back to the thread in progress.

63. Templeusox has reached his genetic threshold Posted: May 29, 2007 at 12:00 AM (#2382210)

OPS up to .815 after tonight.

64. Elevate Phil Coorey Later Posted: May 29, 2007 at 12:09 AM (#2382213)

OK, so Ortiz has some funky congratulation routine for everyone it seems. Tonight after Pedroia scored in the 8th, he came back to the dugout and got an air-hug from Ortiz. Pedroia hugged Ortiz around the midsection, and Ortiz hugged the air above Pedroia's head. Pedroia isn't that short; Ortiz had to reach up in order to miss Pedroia completely. Still, I thought it was hilarious.

I saw that as well, and so did the wine rep who was watching the end of the game with us. We cracked up.

65. Mike Hampton's #1 Fan Posted: May 29, 2007 at 01:01 AM (#2382243)

Don't be so sure. Schilling has looked awful lately, and we don't know if Beckett will stay healthy. Things could unravel quickly.

So I guess we can take you off the short list for Designated Optimist, then.

66. PJ Martinez Posted: May 29, 2007 at 09:12 AM (#2382337)

OPS+ = 116

67. TomH Posted: May 29, 2007 at 09:18 AM (#2382345)

what's up with Lugo's amazing SB success this year? Luck, stragety, ??

68. JoelW Iz in Ur Baseball Posted: May 29, 2007 at 11:26 AM (#2382484)

basking in the love! NESN hung on the Pedroia/Youkilis speed thing for too long, but it really did seem like the two of them like each other a lot. That doesn't surprise me.

69. Reed's Johnson Posted: May 29, 2007 at 02:36 PM (#2382679)

2 starts per week for Cora, be it at SS or 2B sounds good to me. He can still be useful, and as a 9-hitter the damage he might bring with his .240 career average or so is at least minimized.

I was surprised to see Pedroia has quietly gotten his average up to .298 while putting up some very quality at-bats, and has only struck out 8 times (compared to 15 BB). There's nothing wrong wtih his approach.

70. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: May 30, 2007 at 09:47 AM (#2384268)

My guess is Cora gets the start tonight. Paul Byrd's splits are insane - from 2004-2006, LHB hit 333/370/513, while RHB hit 239/262/396 against him.

If Francona doesn't get Cora in the lineup tonight, it'll be malpractice. As I see it, two of the Red Sox infielders should sit, and Hinske and Cora should start. I like the idea of a Hinske/Pedroia/Cora/Youks infield, so that the team's hottest bats stay in the lineup, but no matter what, the Sox need to get lefties in there.

71. plim Posted: May 30, 2007 at 09:49 AM (#2384272)

when can we start acknowledging that lugo has been a bust? at this point, i'd rather be paying agonz his 15 mil for his glove. heck, he already has 10 homers this year!

sorry for the hindsight rant (homers), but still, 15 mil didn't seem like a whole lot to let agonz walk...

72. chris p Posted: May 30, 2007 at 09:50 AM (#2384273)

but no matter what, the Sox need to get lefties in there.

pedroia can hit left handed!

73. rhodeymark Posted: May 30, 2007 at 09:54 AM (#2384277)

Schilling has looked awful lately
Look again

74. The Josecruz Blues (GGC) Posted: May 30, 2007 at 09:59 AM (#2384281)

Lugo's having a better fielding year than Gonzales as of now if you go by ZR, range factor or fielding percentage. Any reason why he's not hitting? If you believe in PrOPS, he's underperforming that by 82 points.

75. ellsbury my heart at wounded knee Posted: May 30, 2007 at 10:13 AM (#2384292)

when can we start acknowledging that lugo has been a bust?

Well, Renteria didn't turn out to be exactly washed-up, either. Give him some more time.

76. plim Posted: May 30, 2007 at 12:32 PM (#2384465)

uh, renteria had 2 months with an ops over .683 (granted, those two were at .865 and .870). he ended the year at .720 and a 91 ops+. while that's better than agonz, it's not in line with the 116/131/90/107/133 lines he put up in the years before and after. so yeah, he was a wash, and waiting for him didn't exactly help. (unless you think we should've held on to him in '06, in which case, i do agree). but the difference between lugo and renteria is that renteria has proven that he can hit 115 ops+ and higher (and obp of .370-ish). lugo has had one full season with an ops+ over 100 (105). That one year, he posted and obp of .362 (again, lower than renteria's average of his non-04/05 seasons). other than that, his obp has floated between .322 to .346. what was with our facination with julio lugo?

and as for waiting for lugo, he hit .690 in april. he's hitting over 100 points worse (.577) in may! what are we waiting for? a .464 june?! carlos zambrano (.667) is hitting better than him!

but yeah, so far lugo and drew have been huge busts. i have to wonder: what's more valuable out of drew? 150+ games at .700, or 120 games at .900?

by the way, trot nixon (and his .730 ops) says hi =P

and i add that line soley in the hopes that i will be mocked at the end of the year if drew finishes at .850-.900+ and nixon stays at .730. =P bring it on!!!

77. Darren Posted: May 30, 2007 at 06:40 PM (#2384910)

Lugo has been a bust. There, it's acknowledged. But it's only 2 months--give him the season to see what he can do.

78. Russlan is a perfectly-hyped Met BTFer Posted: May 30, 2007 at 06:44 PM (#2384913)

Yikes, I knew Pedroia was hitting better recently but I didn't realize how much. He's all the way up to an .822 OPS.

79. Darren Posted: May 30, 2007 at 06:46 PM (#2384916)

That's right baby! Dustin "the Wind" Pedroia is blowing the competition away.

80. Golfing Great Mitch Cumstein Posted: May 30, 2007 at 09:35 PM (#2385391)

it's not in line with the 116/131/90/107/133 lines he put up in the years before and after. so yeah, he was a wash, and waiting for him didn't exactly help. (unless you think we should've held on to him in '06, in which case, i do agree). but the difference between lugo and renteria is that renteria has proven that he can hit 115 ops+ and higher (and obp of .370-ish). lugo has had one full season with an ops+ over 100 (105). That one year, he posted and obp of .362 (again, lower than renteria's average of his non-04/05 seasons).

That is great analysis. Ignore every bad year of the player.

81. ian Posted: May 30, 2007 at 10:21 PM (#2385553)

Sometimes it helps to read past the first paragraph.

Not only read, but comprehend. My mistake

82. Darren Posted: May 31, 2007 at 01:02 PM (#2386225)

Pedroia's at .308 .394 .433--OPS+ of 119.

There is a concern that Pedroia, being a smaller player, is not as likely as larger players to fill out and add power as he matures. I took a look at some other good 5'10 and under players the other day, and this seems to be a myth. Most of these players seemed to add some ISO in their mid-20s. Examples include:

Tejada (jumped from XXX ISO to 200s)
Furcal (100 to 150)
Knoblauch (70 to 150)
J. Morgan (130 to 200)
Durham (120 to 170)
Rollins (130 to 200)

A lot of these guys are speedsters, so they may have been more inclined to be slappy at a young age. Giles is an interesting case in that he started at 170 so he didn't have much place to go. Brian Roberts started in the 100 range, had one year of 200, and has dropped back down.

83. Darren Posted: May 31, 2007 at 01:16 PM (#2386250)

Joe Sewell (my favorite comp for Pedroia) and his brother Luke also saw small jumps in power.

84. Darren Posted: May 31, 2007 at 01:51 PM (#2386297)

Tejada s/b from 150 to 200.

85. plim Posted: May 31, 2007 at 03:30 PM (#2386383)

That is great analysis. Ignore every bad year of the player.

how did i ignore the 90 ops+ he put up the year before he came to boston?

and i certainly am not ignoring all the bad years of lugo's career =)

people said to sit and wait for lugo, like we should have sit and wait on renteria (whether that be ove the course of one season or multiple seasons). i simply showed that a) there wasn't much to wait for in renteria's one season with boston, and b) we should have waited on renteria (provided that he wasn't allergic to boston, or had some sort of mental block because of the snow up there) because he has shown that his one year in boston was an outlier (well, along with his last season in st louis), and i agree with that. but i don't subscribe to waiting for lugo. except for one and a half seasons in tampa bay, he has not shown any propensity to be worth the 4/36 we gave him.

86. JB H Posted: May 31, 2007 at 04:38 PM (#2386468)

My mancrush on Pedroia grows every day.

His hand-eye coordination is unreal. If he were 6 foot with a few muscles he'd be Albert Pujols.

87. Darren Posted: May 31, 2007 at 06:53 PM (#2386566)

Alright, plim, pick one thread to excoriate Lugo on and stick to it. :)

88. Golfing Great Mitch Cumstein Posted: May 31, 2007 at 07:30 PM (#2386603)

how did i ignore the 90 ops+ he put up the year before he came to boston?

Well, you simply threw out Renteria's '05 season and completely ignored '97-'01, five seasons during which his OBP was above league average once. Also, if you look at his graphs, you will notice that his BABIP spiked in '02 and '03. In these two seasons, his increased OPS was largely attributable to his increase in average.

89. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: May 31, 2007 at 09:21 PM (#2386875)

Hindsight is 20/20, but I still can't believe we gave up O-Cab and spent 80 million dollars on pieces of garbage.

90. Mattbert Posted: May 31, 2007 at 10:37 PM (#2386993)

I understand Cabrera is having a nice start to the 2007 season, but why are people speaking of him as if he were the second coming of Nomar or something?

Cabrera, since signing with Anaheim:
(2005) .257/.309/.365
(2006) .282/.335/.404
And career: .271/.320/.405

Lugo in 2007, through 5/29: .230/.291/.340
And career: .274/.337/.399

Would you guys have been carping about Cabrera all year if he'd put up those 2005 numbers for Boston instead of the Halos?

Raise your hand if you think Lugo will finish the year with his current BABIP of .250 (barring injury, of course). Yes, he's struggling offensively right now, but I sincerely doubt he'll be a disaster all year. Also, I was under the impression that the Red Sox thought quite highly of his defense, which was part of the reason they gave him such a handsome contract in the first place (the thin market for free agent shortstops in the 2006/2007 offseason being another part).

91. Dan Posted: June 01, 2007 at 01:12 AM (#2387056)

I've been under the impression that the Sox's defensive evaluation tools love Lugo, it's the only plausible explanation for the front office's longterm infatuation with him.

92. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: June 01, 2007 at 07:15 AM (#2387103)

O-Cab is/was also a fine defender isn't he? Otherwise we woudl have never traded for him.

93. More Indecisive than Lonnie Smith on 2nd... Posted: June 01, 2007 at 07:29 AM (#2387108)

Personally, as a non-Sox fan (feel free to skewer me as you wish) I'm not sure what the big deal is. I'd say far more important than the lower-than-expectations production of Lugo is the .700-ish OPS of big FA signing Drew. If that doesn't pick up, that's a lot bigger problem for the Sox offense, IMHO. Lugo can always be shifted down to 8th (Youk should be leading off anyhow) without it being the biggest bust.

94. Darren Posted: June 01, 2007 at 09:45 PM (#2388313)

After 2 doubles in 2 AB, Pedroia's at .320 .403 .459. Small consolation tonight, but a consolation nonetheless.

95. Darren Posted: June 01, 2007 at 11:37 PM (#2388630)

It's starting to look like Joe Sewell is not good enough as a comp for Pedroia. Joe Morgan it is!

96. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: June 01, 2007 at 11:55 PM (#2388654)

SHUT UP, NOBODY PIMP PEDROIA SO WE DON'T FUCCCCKKKKK him up

97. Darren Posted: June 02, 2007 at 12:00 AM (#2388659)

Maybe Hornsby would be a better comp.

98. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: June 02, 2007 at 03:21 AM (#2388745)

SHUT UP MOTHERFRAKKER I'M PARANOID BIOTCH!!!

99. Elevate Phil Coorey Later Posted: June 02, 2007 at 04:38 AM (#2388752)

I think only wokky is dreaming of the OC. I have seen no one else long for him.

100. kevin Posted: June 02, 2007 at 08:47 AM (#2388764)

Pedroia now has a 129 OPS+.

It kind of makes me a little angry that Youks and Pedroia weren't given chances earlier, when Loretta and Millar were stinking the joint out. Both of them could have done last year what they are doing this year if given the chance a little earlier.

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