The Big Little Papi Decision
Papelbon has only been pitching for a few years and the majority of his pitching experience has been as a reliever. His brief stint as a starter last year was pretty rocky, and it appears that his secondary pitches may not be reliable enough for him to be a consistently good SP. Add to this the fact that he has never thrown more than ~150 IP in any season. All of these factors add up to Pap, in my mind, being much more likely to succeed as a reliever than a starter. My WAG would be 80-90 IP, 3.50 ERA as a reliever, 150-170 IP, 4.30 ERA as a starter. That’s either a horse in the pen or a starter who overtaxes the pen.
That’s the argument for why Pap is better off in the pen, but how would that fit into the Red Sox needs? Well, assuming Wells is dealt, Pap’s move to the pen leave a hole in the rotation. However, this would eliminate the need to add a RP such as Ryan. Paying 4/$40 mil for Millwood would make more sense to me than the 4/$25-$30 you’ll pay for Ryan.
Lastly, I think there’s a real possibility that Foulke comes back strong this year. Ryan would likely need to be assured the closer spot, while Papelbon would not. The former has a lot more potential for friction than the latter. Not to mention the fact that, should your other BP guys take steps forward, Paps can always be moved back into long relief and into the rotation in 07. Ryan is suited for neither.
So that’s my plan. Shift Pap to the bullpen, acquire a #2-type starter who will rack up innings (Millwood, Vazquez, Burnett (health?), Morris (health?), etc), and bid only enough on Ryan to make the Yanks pay through the nose for him.
Darren
Posted: November 06, 2005 at 07:22 PM |
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Why not just make Papelbon the long man to start the season then put him in the rotation at June or so if you want to keep down his innings?
I remember, back in the early 90's writing a letter to the Sox suggesting that with Danny Darwin and Greg Harris, they had two guys who could throw about 120 or so innings really effectively and that they should split one rotation spot between them, Harris starts in the first half and Darwin in the second half or something like that. I don't remember if I forget to send it by Fedex to get Butch Hobson's attention or what.
clement, wakefield - sure things.
schilling - he will be there at the start of the season, but he needs to be on a shorter leash this year if he sucks.
arroyo - meh. i'm not his #1 fan, but we are shallow at starting pitcher. i'd entertain trade proposals where we get a starter back.
wells - he gone
wade miller - he gone
so we need to fill at least 1 spot in the starting rotation (2 if we send brandon arroyo packing). ... in a perfect world, i'd sign burnett, trade arroyo, put dinardo in the rotation, and call up alvarez if a starter gets hurt. another option would be to keep arroyo and have dinardo be the 6th starter.
in the bullpen, i would still go after ryan. foulke is far from a sure thing, timlin is old, and papelbon has very little major little experience. ryan is an absolute stud--a lefty that gets 12ks/9. a bullpen of ryan, papelbon, and timlin is good. a bullpen of foulke, ryan, papelbon, and timlin is dominant.
bottom line, pitching is hte #1 priority. i wouldn't sign damon ... for center field, i'd like to see the FO get creative-- i like erstad (the manny/erstad/glaus trade intrigues me), but cameron scares me. i would let stern play center before i re-signed damon.
That would have been too complicated a scheme for Hobson to manage, RC. The conundrum of 6 starters would have caused his head to explode.
I like your idea of starting Papelbon as the long man. That's what Weaver used to do he had a pretty good record of developing pitchers.
If we take Darren's premise - and it's quite reasonable - that Papelbon currently lacks the consistent secondary pitches to be a full-time starter, then he'll be really good in the bullpen. If the Red Sox have more faith than we do in his splitter and slider and curve and changeup and good lord kid just pick two... anyway, if they have more faith than we do, then he's probably a good addition to the rotation.
I'd rather not see Papelbon as a long man, though, I think. He's good enough right now that if he's not starting, I'd prefer to see him in high-leverage situations.
One of the reasons I've supported Papelbon in the rotation previously is that I like BJ Ryan quite a bit more than I like most of the SP options. Kevin Millwood at 4/40 scares me quite a bit more than Ryan at 4/27, for instance. Am I crazy?
I thought they still had rights to Miller?
I think this winter is a very difficult market, and we have temporarily been stricken stupid by Theo's departure. We should make as few changes as possible, allowing kids to fill any holes that appear. This is also yet another good reason not to deal Manny -- it would be a big deal, and we'd mess it up at present (yes, this means YOU, Lucchino!) I'd try for Graffanino, Damon and Muleller but not chase any of them.
If '06 is a rebuilding year, so be it; we'll be smarter by next winter, the market may be better and our prospects will have matured.
first base for 3 years, closer for 1.
Mets face a similar decision with Aaron Heilman this offseason. I'm intrigued by both cases.
No, you're not crazy. Millwood was excellent last year, and I think in signing him, you're basically getting Clement only a little better with a little more injury risk. The thing about Ryan is, he seems to be at the top of Boston, NYYs, and ??? lists. Who knows what that gets him?
Remember, though, even if there are reasons to prefer Ryan over a SP in general, Papelbon's background and other issues could tilt it back the other way.
Oh, and I should add, excellent use of the little "read more" gimmick.
I learned it from listening to Michael Kay. "A lot of people think the Yankees' big problem is pitching. When we come back, I'm going to tell you why I think it may be in... the outfield!"
I'd love to see the Sox bullpen as this:
CL: Fixed Ketih FOulke. Won't be as brilliant as before, wont' use him as "fireman", but hopefully can get 3 outs without giving up 3 runs.
SU: Ryan - Comes in and cleans people's krap up
SU: Papelbon - ditto
LOOGY: Myers
MR: Timlin - Will only come on in situations where there are no baserunners
LR : Bradford
Lastly, I think there’s a real possibility that Foulke comes back strong this year.
Anything is possible. And I think there's a better chance of it happening in 2006 than there was in 2005. But I'm not holding my breath.
Oh please bring BJ.
I imagine you'd get 8 million Google hits on that one, only one of them involving Ryan.
LR : Bradford
If LR means Long Relief, no. They need someone in that role who can eat innings, and potentially spot start.
If LR means Lefties Rake, yes. But I don't really want that with their bullpen.
Garbage innings. Spot start is definitly a no no.
I suppose JEremy Gonzalez would be good for LR, but Bradford IMO is too valuable to go to waste. The guy is still a good pitcher.
Does anybody have the CFBPS projection for Papsmear?
Upton?
Ryan is not going to go anywhere where he's not the closer.
-- MWE
Papelbon
as starter: 16 IP, 15 H, 2 HR, 9 UIBB, 15 SO, 71 BF, 2.25 ERA, 4.96 dERA
in relief: 18 IP, 18 H, 2 HR, 6 UIBB, 19 SO, 77 BF, 3.00 ERA, 3.46 dERA</pre>
Were his relief innings really THAT rocky compared to his innings as a starter? I can't comment on whether or not he has the pitches to reliably start or not, but it's certainly not clear to me from looking at the above numbers that Papelbon's relief numbers were significantly better than his starter numbers (not given the small number of innings he pitched overall). Better, possibly, but not all that significantly so.
Papelbon
as reliever: 18 IP, 18 H, 2 HR, 6 UIBB, 19 SO, 77 BF, 3.00 ERA, 3.63 dERA</pre>
(Incidentally, if this doesn't work, there's a typo in the first set of reliever numbers -- I believe Papelbon had a 3.63 dERA as a reliever).
Papelbon in relief 3.63 dERA
note: I accidentally mistyped his walks into the spreadsheet before</pre>
Would you name your dog "cumstain"?
That's actually pretty funny... "Come here cumstain, c'mon boy..."
Ryan is not going to go anywhere where he's not the closer.
Well it's not like that we have to TELL Him or anything...
I know i know bad way to do business.
I have no problem demoting foulke and signing ryan, based on their 2005 performances. might be nice to ease foulke back in with a lower leverage role anyway.
Maybe then Billy Beane can reacquire him for Huston Street and Jairo Garcia.
Well, his two biggest bidders are Boston and the NYY. I have a feeling if they both want him as a setup man, he'd at least consider it.
Btw, why am I not allowed to call him "The Papsmear?"
Because it's gross and unfunny. If it was gross and funny, it might be okay. But by merely being repulsive, it's not going to work.
Too bad he doesn't throw a knuckleball. Otherwise we coudl call him "The Papillion" or something... you know, French for "Butterfly", although I'm not sure sure how French woudl fly around here.
I guess if "Papsmear" won't work, than "Papilloma" won't work either.
Like Saberhagen, Millwood seems to have a pattern: Two middling years followed by a very good season. That's hardly a foolproof pattern but it's something to be leery of, especially considering his ratios last year and the likelihood that he wants many years for big dollars.
Furthermore, I really dislike watching him pitch. His painfully slow delivery. The endless time he takes between pitches with men on base. With Clement and his similar actions already on staff, I mercifully beg a pass.
If by "somebody like Abe Alvarez" you mean Dinardo, then I'd say there is a pretty good chance thaht he'll be effective.
You know what I meant... is there somebody in the system we can promote to the 5th starter spot and not be hamemred out of oblivion? YOu know, something like 170 IP, 97*ERA+... instead of having to spend money and assets, just bring somebody up that won't suck the joint up completely and use our resources to get bullpen pitchers/real first baseman?
Just throwign it out there. I like J-Gon for 5th starter though.
yeah. his name is lenny dinardo.
Alright, then let's USE HIM as teh 5th starter.
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