The Josh Beckett Storyline

There are a lot of story lines being covered with the Red Sox this year, but one that seems to be getting very little attention is the fate of Josh Beckett in 2007. One article I did find on it was this Beradino piece in the Mercury News. It’s fairly positive and suggests that Beckett will try to cut down on his HR totals by using more breaking stuff. (BTW, when did Julian Tavarez become the voice of the Red Sox?)

But this is a very important question for the fate of the team. If Beckett’s the ace that was hoped for when dealing away a chunk of the farm, then this team is in amazing shape. If he’s as bad as he was last year, then they’re probably in a bit of trouble. So which will it be?

My gutless guess: somewhere in the middle. Beckett established himself over several years as a good, but not great, starter. There was some hope that he would emerge as a star last year, and that may still happen. But we now have less reason to believe that it will. However, we also have plenty of reason to think that he will bounce back. For one, as MGL points out every time this subject comes up, a bad year is just one year of data to be averaged in with other data. There’s no reason to think that a single bad year indicates someone falling off a cliff, never to be heard from again.

For another thing, even if you don’t agree with MGL, there are plenty of examples of good pitchers having a surprising lousy year in the middle of his career, only to return to effectiveness afterwards. Look at almost any good (even most great) pitcher, and they just throw up a stinker from time to time.

My fearless prediction: 195 IP, 4.20 ERA, 165 K, 65 BB, 25 HR.