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Monday, July 17, 2006

The Looming Trade Deadline

The non-waiver trade deadline is two weeks from today. What are the Red Sox needs? Who should they give up, and who should be untouchable?

The tough part of answering the former question is that the health of Wells/Clement are still unknown. If neither can come back, I’d say getting a mid-rotation starter is the obvious move. But if either of those guys can do the job, it would be an awful waste to deal a good prospect for someone like John Leiber. As to the latter, I’m horrible with that question. I have a hard time letting go of anyone, even someone like David Murphy who I was scoffing at a couple months ago. The fear that he’ll come back to haunt the Sox really bugs me for some reason.

Incidentally, what does everyone make of the AL/NL pitcher thing? I think it’s been largely overblown because a few of the key players have been injured. I’m still wary about getting a finesse guy from the NL, but others don’t worry me as much. Power guys like Beckett are pretty much sure bets! 

Darren Posted: July 17, 2006 at 06:33 PM | 31 comment(s)
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   1. JB H Posted: July 17, 2006 at 10:43 PM (#2102955)
A trade for an impending FA is usually a sucker bet. A mild improvement over less than half a season just isn't worth very much.

I think less of of our prospect's (non-trade) value than most people, but I still wouldn't want Bowden/Bucholz/Ellsbury involved in another Suppan trade. There's some pieces they can trade that don't have very much value to them though - Loretta, and any prospect besides those three and Pedroia (sorry, I still think Murphy is crap). I wouldn't mind a trade using those assets that looked like it'd improve the team in any way.

There might be some multi-year guys that are available under the radar though. It's a lot easier to trade real value for those guys

I think the AL/NL thing is very real. There was some quote in the Globe that the Sox think a team switching leagues would gain/lose 10 games - that'd be a .3 difference in ERA. Add the .5 DH factor and the Fenway factor, and I doubt there's more than 10 NL pitchers that project to beat a 4.50 ERA pitching for the Sox
   2. Darren Posted: July 17, 2006 at 10:57 PM (#2102969)
I still think that acquiring Suppan was a good move. He had been an average pitcher in the AL, then excelled in the NL. They had to figure at worst they'd get a good #3. Didn't work out, though.
   3. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: July 18, 2006 at 03:15 AM (#2103083)
We just need Julian Tavarez and Rudy Seanez to suffer a debilitating disease, a healthy and productive Wily Mo, and Willie Harris to just be disqualified from life.

Seriously, if we get a pitcher, a FA that we'd offer arbitration is OK in my book, because at least we'd get some picks back
   4. karlmagnus Posted: July 18, 2006 at 08:51 AM (#2103150)
We don't need a new pitcher; if Wake's out we just need to bring up Charlie Zink. After all, we have the only catcher in MLB who can catch the knuckler; pity to waste him.

This can be our first move to the all-knuckleball World Series winning pitching corps of 2010!
   5. Fridas Boss Posted: July 18, 2006 at 08:56 AM (#2103153)
BTW karl, have you been able to reap any glory for calling out the Seanez and Taverez moves as trash befire the season started?
   6. Mike Emeigh Posted: July 18, 2006 at 10:52 AM (#2103252)
This can be our first move to the all-knuckleball World Series winning pitching corps of 2010!


Hey, John Barnes has had two straight decent outings for Greenville, and the Red Sox could get Charlie Haeger from the White Sox. It's not all THAT far-fetched!! Shades of the '45 Senators!!

-- MWE
   7. Harold Reynolds: An Erotic Life (AG#1F) Posted: July 18, 2006 at 10:55 AM (#2103255)
So, the Red Sox shouldn't trade any of their good prospects, and they shouldn't trade for an impending FA.

Just who outside of Wayne Krivsky is going to make a deal with them then?
   8. chris p Posted: July 18, 2006 at 11:40 AM (#2103326)
BTW karl, have you been able to reap any glory for calling out the Seanez and Taverez moves as trash befire the season started?

he wasn't alone on that one.
   9. 1k5v3L Posted: July 18, 2006 at 11:44 AM (#2103332)

Just who outside of Wayne Krivsky is going to make a deal with them then?


Ya gotta reckon Krivsky would like a piece of proven closer Keith Foulke. Maybe his kidney?

I'd be shocked if the Sox can acquire anyone at the deadline who'd make one iota of a difference
   10. Steamer46 Posted: July 18, 2006 at 03:45 PM (#2103667)
and if they did he'd probably take the ws clinching ball with him so what's the point? ;)
   11. Darren Posted: July 18, 2006 at 05:30 PM (#2103797)
So, the Red Sox shouldn't trade any of their good prospects, and they shouldn't trade for an impending FA.

See, I thought I made myself clear, but I guess not. In saying that I don't like to part with the prospects, even the suspects, I'm making note of my own bias. Even knowing that Murphy's probably going to be a mediocre player, I have a hard time giving him up, but that doesn't mean the Red Sox shouldn't.
   12. villageidiom Posted: July 20, 2006 at 11:15 PM (#2106140)
I'd be shocked if the Sox can acquire anyone at the deadline who'd make one iota of a difference

I think they have enough room in their budget that they could take on two months of a huge salary. Whether any such high-impact, large-contract, impending-FA NL pitcher for a team falling out of contention is available, that's another story.

BTW karl, have you been able to reap any glory for calling out the Seanez and Taverez moves as trash befire the season started?

Taking your low-leverage bullpen spots and filling them with players like Seanez & Tavarez isn't a bad move. It's not a great move, but it's sound. You could go for top-notch relievers, but that comes at a considerably higher cost, and makes as much sense as any situation where you put top-notch relievers in low-leverage situations. You could go for top-level prospects, but if they don't work out you're in a position of having to trade midseason to get the Scott Sauerbecks and Chad Bradfords of the world - and giving up something in return for those spots is a bad move. For those spots, it's OK to take a flier (or two) on Veteran Presence and see what sticks.
   13. Smokey Joe Wood Posted: July 21, 2006 at 10:51 PM (#2107157)
I like O'Dowd's idea of swapping Ray King for Rudy Seanez, hope Theo gets it done.

As I posted in the news thread on Gabbard's start, I would love to get Haeger - get Tek 2 days rest a week once Wake is back - especially if we can get him without giving up anything resembling a top prospect. Adam Stern plus a quad-A arm might look good to Kenny Williams with the way Brian Anderson and Podsednik have played.

Free agent rentals just aren't worth it, and taking on (and extending) Abreu doesn't make sense unless we dump Manny in exchange (no reason for the Phils to do that).

Then again, now that Krivsky has "set the market" for mediocre middle relievers, maybe Omar will give us Pelfrey for Tavarez.
   14. Smokey Joe Wood Posted: July 21, 2006 at 11:01 PM (#2107170)
almost forget... i also want the other Papelbon twin. In 2010, we can have 5 knuckleballers in the rotation and Papelbon, Papelbon and Papelbon pitching the 7th, 8th, and 9th.
   15. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: July 22, 2006 at 04:44 AM (#2107379)
almost forget... i also want the other Papelbon twin. In 2010, we can have 5 knuckleballers in the rotation and Papelbon, Papelbon and Papelbon pitching the 7th, 8th, and 9th

Oh yeah I TOTALLY want to trade for the other Papelbon.... who's a LEFTY.

Imagine that:

Fireball Papelbon
Lefty Control Papelbon
Submariner Papelbon

That bullpen would be invincable.
   16. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: July 22, 2006 at 04:47 AM (#2107380)
Free agent rentals just aren't worth it

If we can offer arbitration and get the 2 draft picks than they aren't that bad.
   17. Darren Posted: July 22, 2006 at 09:20 AM (#2107419)
I like O'Dowd's idea of swapping Ray King for Rudy Seanez, hope Theo gets it done.

Why do people think King is even remotely useful? Seanez was better than him last year and he's better than him this year. It'd be nice if Seanez starting mowing people down but for now he's a solidly average reliever, which King is not.
   18. 1k5v3L Posted: July 22, 2006 at 09:27 AM (#2107425)
Supposedly someone on the internet (my guess is that someone hails from South Boston) is circulating rumors that Theo is trying to acquire Jake Peavy for Mike Lowell. That's the stupidest trade rumor I've heard... and I've circulated plenty of stupid rumors myself.
   19. Darren Posted: July 22, 2006 at 09:42 AM (#2107431)
That rumor comes from ESPN's own Buster Olney, IIRC. So it's not quite as reliable as some doofus in South Boston.
   20. 1k5v3L Posted: July 22, 2006 at 09:46 AM (#2107433)
That rumor comes from ESPN's own Buster Olney, IIRC. So it's not quite as reliable as some doofus in South Boston.


Agreed.
   21. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 22, 2006 at 10:05 AM (#2107445)
I would like a loogy on the roster, all else being equal. They're good to have.

The problems are twofold - one, as with Javier Lopez, they still have to reach some standard of overall quality, and two, the Red Sox need to get quite a lot of innings out of their bullpen due to the problems in the rotation.

A guy like King, who might not be any good, and who absolutely under no circumstances can ever face a righty, is not what the Sox should be looking for. A John Halama / Joe Kennedy type, a failed starter who could get some loogy outs and eat innings, would be perfect for this team. I'm currently hoping that Lenny Dinardo can fill that role, if he ever recovers from whatever bizarre injury he suffered.
   22. Darren Posted: July 23, 2006 at 08:48 PM (#2109040)
Any word on Papelbon? Is he hurt? Why didn't he pitch today?
   23. JoelW Iz in Ur Baseball Posted: July 24, 2006 at 12:14 AM (#2109181)
He was warming up when the home run was hit Darren.
   24. Harold Reynolds: An Erotic Life (AG#1F) Posted: July 24, 2006 at 12:17 AM (#2109183)
www.mlbtraderumors.com has the Red Sox interested in Mark Redman. Good luck with that.
   25. Darren Posted: July 24, 2006 at 08:11 AM (#2109340)
mlbtraderumorsthatijustmadeupinmyhead.com?
   26. PJ Martinez Posted: July 24, 2006 at 04:09 PM (#2109965)
Via SoSH:

"The White Sox are 'extremely close' to trading for Nationals outfielder Alfonso Soriano, a source close to the situation told ESPN The Magazine's Tim Kurkjian. The Nationals have great interest in pitcher Brandon McCarthy."
   27. Cris E Posted: July 24, 2006 at 04:16 PM (#2109974)
That's Mark "No, seriously, An All Star" Redman to you.
   28. Dave Cyprian Posted: July 30, 2006 at 12:06 PM (#2117680)
Baseball Prospectus' "Will's Mill" reports as best he can on Red Sox at the trade deadline:

[The NYY's offer to PHI for Abreau is likely not] the final offer due to the Red Sox involvement. Once again, we don't know what the Red Sox are offering. If a dam near you ever springs a leak, call Theo Epstein. He is apparently the master at plugging leaks... There's a grand strategy there, but I can't see it yet. The Sox are also closing in on a deal for Julio Lugo, according to sources with other teams. The holdup there is getting an answer on whether Lugo would move to 2B. The backup option for the Red Sox is Dustin Pedroia, not Ron Belliard.


It seems that Theo's outrage from all the leaks of past years is genuine and that he has made some real changes around the office. As far as trades go, I'm firmly in the camp that we don't need another 5th starter if it costs value, bring up Pedroia, drive the asking price up for the Yankees. But apparently Theo has more complicated plans.
   29. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: July 30, 2006 at 04:45 PM (#2118502)
Seriously, who are the guys in Single A?
   30. ellsbury my heart at wounded knee Posted: July 30, 2006 at 04:59 PM (#2118527)
If the Yankees' minor leaguers for Abreu and Lidle is for real (and it very much looks to be at this point), then it doesn't seem like Epstein did much to drive up the price. The Red Sox already have kind of a crowded OF, but Murphy, EMart and some filler couldn't have gotten Abreu/Lidle?
   31. Bernal Diaz has an angel on his shoulder. Posted: July 30, 2006 at 06:00 PM (#2118590)
ESPN News just showed a clip of Abreu shaving in the dugout. Was that from today? If so that is funny as hell.
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