The Mirabelli Equation
Has a nice ring to it, doesn’t it? Sounds like something that Matt Damon would solve in Good Will Hunting 2: Back to the Blackboard. It’s actually just a way of saying that now that we’ve had some time to observe the results, let’s see what good bringing back Doug Mirabelli has done for this team. If you recall, the big impetus for getting Mirabelli back was Josh Bard’s inability to catch the knuckler. Here’s what Bard did stacked up side by side with what Mirabelli has done since his return (in Wakefield starts):
Bard: 5 G, 9 PB, 0 WP, 3.90 ERA.
Mirabelli 31 G, 13 PB 9 WP, 4.44 ERA.
So with Bard behind the plate for Wake’s past 18 games, he would have surrendered 56 PB, or 43 more than Mirabelli did. That’s if he didn’t improve at all. But that only tells part of the story. There are also wild pitches to consider. Although they are credited to pitcher, many of them are simply balls in the dirt, which good catchers do a good job of blocking. If we split responsibility for WP between the catcher and pitcher, then over those 18 games, Bard would save 4-5 WP over Mirabelli. So the difference between Mirabelli and Bard on defense since the trade, is about 38 balls that get past the catcher. What’s that, about 12 runs? That would have been quite brutal to watch, assuming that Bard remained exactly that bad, but would it have outweighed the offensive differences between these two players?
That’s the question that popped into my head today when I saw Mirabelli and his .190 .230 .310 (a slight downgrade on his 06: .193 .261 .342) strolling to the plate. Since coming back to the Sox Dougie has hit at a 10 runs below replacement level clip. Prorating Bard’s hitting down to the same number of PAs, Bard has been +16 runs above replacement level during the same period. 26 runs better for Bard!
So in total, the Mirabelli equation is this: 26 runs on offense in return for 12 runs on defense. Plus Cla Meredith. And a higher salary. If there was any question as to whether that trade needed to happen, I think it can be laid to rest now.
Darren
Posted: June 17, 2007 at 09:01 PM |
14 comment(s)
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I remember after the trade that Wakefield said that Bard had been working extremely hard and he felt bad that it didn't work out. Why wouldn't it have occurred to either of them (or the coaches) to go back to the ST way?
Then again... Palmer's BR have a SB as worth .3, and Furtado's XR has it at .18. Again, you may have a couple runners moving up on any given PB/WP, so it may be a bit more than those numbers. If we bump it up to .5 runs per WP/PB, it's 19 runs, and the overall trade is still a big negative.
SBs and CS would be points of interest as well. That would take a bit more legwork than I had time for. Overall, I think we're still looking at a somewhat similar conclusion.
Also, get that guy we drafted this year signed. Signability issues/hitting ability be damned, I heard he's a great defensive catcher, and we need that in the system right now, or otherwise in 3 years we STILL might have Mirabelli catching.
We tend to be biased towards prospects with bargains or undervalued players whose signing expresses the "smartness" of the FO.
But something needs to be done and it doesn't look Kottaras will fill the prospect angle and arguably the mere existence of this thread is compelling evidence we shouldn't look to the "smartness" of the FO in this area either.
So what's next? The only thing I can think of is to find a veteran backstop in the poor starter, very good backup mold like a Rod Barajas and sign him for 2-3M and make that investment and the "veteran-ness" of the player be grounds for everybody to buy into him. Of course, they have to be convinced this guy will be adequate catching the knuckleball, but I'm just no buying that adequate is impossible to find. Wake (and probably the other players too) gave up on Bard because he was young and cheap and fungible (to them), but a veteran with a contract won't be seen that way and that will buy the guy enough time to become adequate with the knuckler. That would be the theory anyway.
You do? I tend to be biased toward homegrown guys and guys who are under arb control.
Geez, I hope to hell this wasn't up to Wake or any other player. My worry is that you go out and spend $3 mil on a backup catcher and he can't catch the knuckler. Then what?
I'm not at all sure what the solution is. Maybe the best thing to do is just get a good/decent backup and grin and bear it. or maybe you stick with Mirabelli and figure that brief descent into crappiness is just that. How fast can we promote Still and/or Wagner? What about Jeremy Brown, can we pick him up? :)
Does Wakefield know that asshat is costing him run support?
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