You've sold me. But I just don't think they'll take on a significant portion of his contract and/or give up a body for him.

I'd also accept Murton.

Brilliant! I'd "settle" for getting Matt Murton back. And while we're in turn-back-the-clock mode, how about we reverse the Pena/Arroyo trade? That'd solve the fifth starter puzzle, and we'd still have a platoon partner for Nixon in Murton (with the added bonus that he'd be a home-grown success from the farm system, just like Trot).

It's too bad we had to sign Snow and trade Arroyo before Choi got waived and Lee broke his wrist. This sabermagic stuff isn't worth a damn if it can't tell you those two things were going to happen. Yeesh.

In all seriousness, the Sox may just have to eat the Snow contract and cut him loose. Provided Choi keeps hitting well at Pawtucket, of course. And I guess they'd have to make sure Tito's convinced that the late-inning defensive caddy at first doesn't have to be (a) left-handed, (b) a crappy hitter, and (c) a different guy than the starting first baseman.

Snow just doesn't have a niche on this team unless Youkilis is playing a lousy defensive 1B, which he isn't. That's not Snow's fault, certainly. He has his uses, and the FO probably made a mistake in not having confidence that Youkilis could play first well enough to not be considered a liability in need of replacement in the late innings. It would be nice to be able to get something for Snow, but they'd have to count on a trading partner who isn't willing to wait until Snow hits the waiver wire, as he's likely to do.

Problem:

According to the CBA (Article XX(B)(6)), a player signed as a free agent cannot have his contract assigned prior to June 16. DFA is not an option before then. He also cannot be traded in that time without his consent.

If J.T. Snow having any playing time with the Sox is a problem, the solution between now and 6/16 is either to convince him to accept a trade, or staple him to the bench.

He has his uses, and the FO probably made a mistake in not having confidence that Youkilis could play first well enough to not be considered a liability in need of replacement in the late innings.

It's not just a confidence thing; at the time they didn't have a decent Plan B if Youkilis got hurt. All things considered - especially the market cost for 1B - Snow came relatively cheaply and provides depth. That's hardly a mistake. If their crime was in not being able to predict the Dodgers would waive Choi, that's hard to characterize as a mistake.

"...they'd have to count on a trading partner who isn't willing to wait until Snow hits the waiver wire, as he's likely to do."

As pointed out above, though, Snow can't be waived until June 16, so if the Cubs have any interest in getting him now, a trade is the only option. I certainly wouldn't ask for too much if I was the Sox FO.

I know Snow wants to win a ring, but the Cubs can be thought of as a feasible contender, and if Chicago had genuine interest, he'd probably get more playing time. I think he might go for it.

A lot of ifs, here, obviously... as I've suggested before, maybe Torre wants some veteran defensive presence at 1B?

PS. I still like the Arroyo/Pena trade.

...between now and 6/16 is either to convince him to accept a trade...

Good intelligence, village. I suspect he'd accept a trade to the Cubs, but the Cubs are using John Mabry right now, and might not consider J.T. a cost-effective improvement.

Another possibility is the Dodgers, depending on how Nomah's doing injury-wise. Loney ain't off to a great start as his fill-in.

Snow came relatively cheaply and providesd depth. That's hardly a mistake.

Also a good point. Once you've figured out which of your high-risk (or -variance) players to keep, however, you've got to be decisive about moving the obsolete parts so you don't waste (playing) time. I expect this FO to be decisive--which doesn't mean they have to be callous. They can probably arrange a suitable landing place for J.T. by eating some portion of his salary, in recognition that the expenditure served its purpose as an insurance premium.

Good point about the Dodgers, OleP. Has a nice symmetry to it, too, since they gave us Choi.

Elsewhere on the infield: once Crisp is back, and if Pedroia keeps hitting, I'd love to see Dustin called up and Cora sent packing. Especially with Willie Harris around, who has played SS before and a lot of 2B recently, I don't see why this team should carry both Gonzalez and Cora.

Even if Pedroia does not get called up, I wonder if we can get away with Harris as the backup SS for now. It just seems like we don't have as much offense on the bench as Tito needs to start pinch-hitting for Gonzalez more regularly in the late innings. What are our options with Cora?

i hated how we got rid of Graffanino but kept Cora. Cora is not a bad guy, but Graffs is better

Another possibility is the Dodgers, depending on how Nomah's doing injury-wise.

Well, Nomah just won tonight's game with a ninth-inning granny, so I think they'll give him a little bit of a run...

It's not just a confidence thing; at the time they didn't have a decent Plan B if Youkilis got hurt. All things considered - especially the market cost for 1B - Snow came relatively cheaply and provides depth. If their crime was in not being able to predict the Dodgers would waive Choi, that's hard to characterize as a mistake.

Snow is a Plan B for Youkilis getting hurt in the same way that Josh Bard is Varitek insurance. If the starter gets hurt, you're still stuffed. At the time, I guess I was more vexed by the apparent rush to make the move than I was by the move itself. As I said, Snow has his uses, but I don't recall much of a stampede for his services in January. Hell, they must have known Dave McCarty's always just a phone call away.

And of course they couldn't predict Choi (and Pena) becoming available; the first two paragraphs of #3 are very much in jest.

Snow can't be waived until June 16, so if the Cubs have any interest in getting him now, a trade is the only option.

Yes, of course. I was assuming that the Cubs would probably decline, given they have Mabry and Walker to fill in and already have too many infielders on their roster. My guess was that the type of team that would have interest in a very specific role player like Snow (i.e. playoff contenders) would probably be willing to wait until at least the middle of the season to get him, at which point he may be able to be acquired for nothing.

I still like the Arroyo/Pena trade.

Me too.

i hated how we got rid of Graffanino but kept Cora. Cora is not a bad guy, but Graffs is better

negligible at best. cora plays two important positions VERY well (2b/SS) and one at an average level (3B). graffanino is average at 2B and and below average at the corners. graffanino is probably a better hitter, but not by enough to overcome coras defensive value/flexibility.

this also doesn't account for the fact that maybe they couldn't unload cora and only eat 500k.

So what happens if you let Snow go, and Choi and Lowell both stop hitting? (a none to improbable outcome given the parties involved and their recent history)

Does everyone expect Youkilis to keep hitting .318/.403/.455?

So what happens if you let Snow go, and Choi and Lowell both stop hitting? (a none to improbable outcome given the parties involved and their recent history)

It's not like Snow is hitting either.

All of Choi, Lowell, and Youkilis are doing about what they're projected to do. If one of them stops hitting for some unknown reason, we still have the other two. It would be nice to also have Snow, but there are only so many spots on the roster.

I should have mentioned the thing about having to get Snow's permission to trade him. I think he would be willing if it meant getting playing time rather than playing once a week.

Maybe they should have known that Choi and Pena were available? If the Dodgers are Tigers were willing to cut those guys for nothing after ST, they were probably willing to deal them very cheaply during the offseason. Of course, we'd never know for sure what they were asking for them.

It's hard for me to see the Red Sox ever making a move that hurt their overall depth, except for a significant gain in expected performance. Given that, I could see Petunia taking over the SS or 2B position this year if he's doing really good and one of the starters is not. I would be shocked to see him come up for Cora - it would cost depth, it would stunt the kid's development, and the payoff would come maybe one game a week.

Choi/Snow is interesting, though, because it does actually appear that Choi can't be optioned. I remain confused about that, but it appears to be the case. Given that, Choi will need to return to the club once his "rehab" is complete, and he's just obviously better than JT Snow. I assume the Red Sox will remain masterful at stretching out rehab assignments unto oblivion, but I gotta think that JT is playing to save his job right now, even if the reckoning won't come immediately.

I guess a trade of Mike Lowell is just not going to happen this year, is it? Trading him would free up a place for Choi with Youkilis going across the diamond. He's hitting ok so far and maybe could be moved if the Red Sox picked up pretty much all of his salary, but it would leave the Red Sox with no real back-up at 3B and no RH 1B.

For some reason I had thought that trading Lowell was almost a foregone conclusion, but the more I think about it, the more I realize he probably isn't going anywhere.

Well, Nomah just won tonight's game...

Yeah, that was good to see, Bob L., and Mrs. Nomah was in the stands to enjoy it. (Though I should've checked on his status before speculating, of course.)

I gotta think that JT is playing to save his job right now, even if the reckoning won't come immediately.

Agreed. So what's the last possible date Choi can remain with the team (barring further injury)?

Does everyone expect Youkilis to keep hitting .318/.403/.455?

I expect him to be around .300/.400/.400.

I expect a youks line of around .290/.390/.430

similar to above with a bit more power.

.290/.390/.430

I think he'll slug a little more than that, maybe .450.

I'm with ericr on that one. I'm secretly hoping that he'll just go nuts though.

I'm secretly hoping that he'll just go nuts though.

Not much of a secret now, is it?

i expected .265/.375/.400

If he has a OBP anywhere near .400 i'll be super joyed

I think anything in the .375 to .400 range is a reasonable guess for OBP. It's easy to forget that his career OBP in the minors was .444 and it's been .376 in the majors.

He strikes out a lot for a so-far ~12 HR, OBP guy.

[flinches in anticipation]

Tito just said on WEEI that he plans to get Wily Mo a start or two in CF in the coming week.

Tito just said on WEEI that he plans to get Wily Mo a start or two in CF in the coming week. ]

Brace yourselves for comedy

"Tito just said on WEEI that he plans to get Wily Mo a start or two in CF in the coming week."

I'm glad to hear this. Sure, it's a little scary, and I wish we had an extreme groundballer or two on the staff to minimize the potential damage. But supposedly he gets better reads in CF or something, and, besides, his bat might make up for the difference defensively between him and Willie Harris out there. It's worth finding out anyway.

Does anyone else get the lurking feeling that this season is ultimately going to be defined not by Wily Mo Pena or Youklis but by Roger Clemens?

I wish we had an extreme groundballer or two on the staff

It's hard to see it while they're getting pounded, but DiNardo and Clement should qualify, at least if you avergae the G/F of the two of them.

When the Red Sox acquired Choi I thought the main reason was a lack of trust in Lowell. At the time Lowell's swing had gotten long and slow so the Red Sox needed a contingency play. Choi enabled them to move Youkilis to third and platoon Choi and Snow if Lowell didn't work out, that is how I saw the move.

I have heard the same thing above Pena's fielding. I dont know how he is better in center, but maybe he just has issues reading the spin on the ball in the corners. Either way, if the Sox can get his bat to get hot that would be a huge plus.

An extreme groundball pitcher in the mold of Lowe or Webb would be nice considering how improved Boston's infield defense is. Clement has the best career numbers in GB/FB out of there starters and he only posts a 1.67. DiNardo also has a very good ratio although it is only in 56 innings he has posted a 2.50. The rest of the staff has pretty much an even GB/FB ratio.

The infield defense is probably much better than it has been in recent history, but I'm still not sure it's much better than average. If I had to pull defensive runs out of my butt (my butt uses a combination of past UZR and poor couch scouting), I'd go something like -5, +10, -5, 0 for the starting infield left to right.

The red sox infielders have all averaged good fielding over there careers. Here are there FRAR:

Lowell 22.6
Gonzalez 10.5
Loretta 15.5
Snow 7.3

I think they would definately benefit from a heavy sinker baller since there outfield defense leaves a little to be desired

So what's the last possible date Choi can remain with the team (barring further injury)?

May 3.

-- MWE

When the Red Sox acquired Choi I thought the main reason was a lack of trust in Lowell.

When they acquired him I thought the main reason was that they had space on the 40-man roster, found a good way to fill it, and figured they'd work out the details later.

Does anyone else get the lurking feeling that this season is ultimately going to be defined not by Wily Mo Pena or Youklis but by Roger Clemens?

Please don't say things like that. It just encourages Darren.

The red sox infielders have all averaged good fielding over there careers.

Well yeah, but the problem is that they're old. From the stats you gave:

Lowell 22.6
Gonzalez 10.5
Loretta 15.5
Snow 7.3

Lowell clearly doesn't have much range anymore, Loretta has probably lost some, and Snow, while old and slow, isn't even playing much. I hate to have to keep citing the same source, but I think my butt projection system is closer to the truth than those numbers.

So no one wants to say anything about the fact that Curt Schilling threw 133 pitches the other night?

So no one wants to say anything about the fact that Curt Schilling threw 133 pitches the other night?

what's there to say that hasn't already been said a million times ... dating back to francona's time in philly?

Well, it's not like saying something that's been said a million times already ever stopped anyone before.

Well, it's not like saying something that's been said a million times already ever stopped anyone before.

ok fine.

tito needs to grow a pair.

I guess I don't have much to say about it myself, other than it was probably a bad idea.

Well, you can hear Tito's semi-explanation on WEEI.com's audio vault, if you want. Bascially, he screwed up. He did say that Schill was not coming out of his motion, or any other of the usual, subtle signs of fatigue. Schill said that the cold temp that night made him just fine with it-big surprise.

<blockquote>So what's the last possible date Choi can remain with the team (barring further injury)?

May 3.

-- MWE</blockquote>
Anyone with word on the next move? I have been told he cleared waivers, and I assume it is accurate, but I haven't heard anything else...?

I haven't heard anything about Choi. I hope he comes up soon, though. He makes a lot more sense on the roster at this point than Snow. I wouldn't expect to see him get many starts-- I think Youkilis and Lowell are entrenched for now-- but he's a much better pinch-hitting option, and he could start against a RHP here or there. I would be surprised and disappointed if the Sox don't take advantage of the depth Choi offers. If he's cleared waivers, though, can he remain in Pawtucket indefinitely? If so, I suppose we might not see him for a month or so.

From Chris Snow in the Globe:

Hee Seop Choi's rehab stint reached the maximum 20 days yesterday. The Sox must either recall him today or formally option him to Pawtucket. Choi has a minor league option remaining, but because he debuted more than three years ago, he must clear major league (revocable) waivers to be sent to Pawtucket. Provided the Sox go that route, the waivers process should be no more than a formality. Choi, in 19 games with Pawtucket, was batting .313 (21 for 67) with three home runs, 12 RBIs, and 15 runs

So he has an option left, but in order to use it, he has to go through waivers. That doesn't sound like an option. And I doubt that putting him through waivers will be a formality. The Cubs could really use him, and there may be other teams who could now too (Angels?).

But why would they want to send him down anyway? He would appear to be more useful than Mohr, Snow, and MDC right now.

In order for them to option him to Pawtucket today, he must first have cleared waivers by today. And if so, then he was already put on waivers a few days ago. IOW, by today they should already know whether he has cleared waivers or not.

Let's say for the sake of argument that he hasn't. What roster move should they make?

(a) Trade Choi.
(b) Remove Snow (with his permission).
(c) Remove Harris.
(d) Remove Youkilis.
(e) Remove Lowell.
(f) other.

I'm in no way advocating (d); but I think Youks has options. You know, the kind where he doesn't have to clear waivers.

Regardless, I don't want to hear any of the "trade Snow for Murton and a PTBNL" crap. The Red Sox must make a move today, so they're in a very bad negotiating position.

To me, you trade Snow for a scrub and eat at least 80% of Snow's salary, if you can find a team that wants him and he wants to be traded to. If trading him isn't do-able, demote Harris to get past the short-run issue, and work out something better for the longer run. I know, all it buys is time, but at this point that's the difference between a bad deal and a horrible deal.

FWIW, The Sox face the same issue with Gonzalez as they do with Snow: he can't be assigned (traded, demoted, released) before 6/16 without his consent.

If Choi has to be put on "revocable" waivers, the Sox have another 24 hours to work this out. You put Choi on waivers and hope he doesn't get claimed. In the meantime, you see whether there are any takes for Snow. You hope - given that you think Snow has more value than he's shown so far this season - that Choi clears and all is well. If Choi doesn't clear, you pull him back and figure out something else.

snow to the cubs just makes too much sense not to happen. he's one of dusty's guys, isn't he?

I just found out. When I was poking around, Chris Snow also went to the same high school Fridas Boss and I went to.

Revocable waivers aren't real waivers: If somebody gets claimed, you just pull him back.

He might go through, anyway. It's a ###-for-tat thing. Theo might get on the phone with a likely suiter and promise not to put in a claim on s0-and-so if they leave Choi alone.

"Hee Seop Choi, the Sox first baseman on a 20-day rehab stint ending yesterday, has cleared major-league (revocable) waivers and will be optioned to Pawtucket today. Choi, in 19 games on his rehab stint, hit .313 (21 for 67) with three homers, 12 RBIs, and 15 runs scored."

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/2006/05/choi_clears_wai.html

you can't say t-i-t?

###.

And I doubt that putting him through waivers will be a formality.

Well, clearly it was. Realize that Choi has already gone through waivers once, and every NL team *and* nearly every AL team passed on him that time - the Yankees and White Sox and maybe the Angels were the only teams that didn't have a shot at him before the Red Sox the first time.

-- MWE

"Well, clearly it was. Realize that Choi has already gone through waivers once, and every NL team *and* nearly every AL team passed on him that time - the Yankees and White Sox and maybe the Angels were the only teams that didn't have a shot at him before the Red Sox the first time."

Is this a mystery to anyone else? Why are teams staying away from this guy?

Is this a mystery to anyone else? Why are teams staying away from this guy?

Their 40-man rosters are full, and/or they don't want to assume his contract. For the small-revenue teams it's more the latter, but for the others it's more the former. They'd need to make another roster move to make room for him, and dropping someone else you like enough to have on your 40-man to make room for him isn't a slam-dunk.

Worse yet, they'd also have to make room on the 25-man roster, because he can't be sent down without clearing waivers.

If Choi has to be put on "revocable" waivers, the Sox have another 24 hours to work this out. You put Choi on waivers and hope he doesn't get claimed.

No. Choi being on waivers would not have absolved the Sox from having to put him on the roster today. A player on waivers is still on the roster. (If he's DFA, he's off the roster... but waivers is another story.)

Nice to know he cleared, though.

you can't say t-i-t?

You can't say ####-and-bull either.

Their 40-man rosters are full, and/or they don't want to assume his contract.

And he's not that good.

And I doubt that putting him through waivers will be a formality.

Well, clearly it was. Realize that Choi has already gone through waivers once, and every NL team *and* nearly every AL team passed on him that time--the Yankees and White Sox and maybe the Angels were the only teams that didn't have a shot at him before the Red Sox the first time."

Well, things have changed since that time. Derek Lee and Sean Casey were healthy then, for instance. Also, the Angels could certainly use some offense.


PS. When you start sentences with "Realize" you sound like Gammons. No offense.

Well, things have changed since that time. Derek Lee and Sean Casey were healthy then, for instance. Also, the Angels could certainly use some offense.


Well, the critical element didn't change since that time. Even if you are looking for offense, you aren't looking in the direction of Choi.

And he's not that good.

I wasn't trying to make the case either way; if anything I'd say the jury's still out. But it looks like I was implying that by suggesting the other teams didn't want to clear out space for him, even space presently occupied by a scrub.

Collectively the other 29 teams decided there are 1,160 players/contracts they'd rather have. And that's certainly not flattering for Choi.

Village--

Are you sure that Boston can't give Snow his outright release (as opposed to DFAing him)?

Not sure, Darren. To release him outright he must pass through Unconditional Release Waivers first. While on URW he can be claimed by another team.

Generally, a player who moves from one team to another via a waiver claim is "assigned" (meaning his contract is assigned) to the claiming team. But I don't know if there's a different application of this for URW.

I believe the point of the 6/15 date in the CBA was to prevent teams from signing a free agent, then turning around and moving him elsewhere before he's even had a chance to unpack his boxes. The outright release is a bit murky regarding that. One one hand, if he's released he has plenty of time to unpack. OTOH, if he can be claimed off URW he's moving elsewhere.

Given that URW applies to outright release, and a waiver claim clearly would violate the 6/15 rule, I suspect they can't release him on or before 6/15, either. But I don't know.

"Even if you are looking for offense, you aren't looking in the direction of Choi."

The Pirates' backup 1B with Casey hurt is Jose Frickin' Hernandez. Even the biggest Choi-hater in the world would have to see him as an upgrade there.

Too bad Littlefield is such a tool.

Given that URW applies to outright release, and a waiver claim clearly would violate the 6/15 rule, I suspect they can't release him on or before 6/15, either. But I don't know.

Boy, that just seems really weird that you can be forced to keep a guy on your active roster. I imagine Snow would be happy to be off the team though, since he just never plays.

when we traded for a 2b from san diego, i think we got the wrong guy.

I can't speak to the credibility of this at all, but a poster named "Corsi Combover" posted this over at SoSH, and it seems like a possibly well-informed take:

***
Having an option left means you can send a player to the minors without having to secure outright waivers ("OR waivers"), which are also referred to as special waivers. Clubs can and do claim players on OR waivers, as the Sox did with Bronson Arroyo a few years ago.

Choi did technically have an option left, but since it has been three calendar years since the he first got called up to the major leagues, he had to clear major league waivers ("ML waivers") before being optioned back to Pawtucket. (The number of calendar years is actually reduced by one for each full year on option prior to being called up for the first time, but I'm still sort of confused on this part).

Except in August, ML waivers are almost always a procedural formality and are much easier to secure that OR waivers. As we speculated earlier, there is an understanding between clubs not to claim players off ML waivers, which are revocable. If clubs start claiming players off ML waivers, then teams would run into problems optioning their own players and mayhem would ensue. In August, ML waivers are required to make a trade so all bets are off.

From this info, we can speculate that in Choi's case, the Sox needed ML waivers to option him because he was called up for the first time in 2002. Because the waiver cycle is now TWO business days for all types of waivers, we can speculate that Choi was placed on ML waivers Tuesday, cleared Thursday, and was optioned immediately. Although it would have violated the general understanding between teams, any club could have claimed him. Had Choi been claimed, the Sox would have had to choose among three options: a) let him go, b) work out a trade for him, or c) pull him back and bring him to the big leagues immediately.
***