Just reported on postgame by Tom Caron.

The terrorists have now been defeated.

I thought they had already won!

You will doubt ever having doubted Petagine, you bunch of doubting doubters!

ahhhh!!!!! where is everybody. there should be dancing in the streets!

That's why they're not here, Darren.

I walked down Boylston St a little bit ago, and the riot police were aleady getting prepared.

Wait, ####, it's an afternoon game, isn't it?

And I'm working. Godammit. I won't really be able to focus if Petagine is playing, but I won't get to watch either.

So, does Petagine play 1B against RHP, with Millar only against LHP? Does Millar shift to RF when a RHP is on the mound? To paraphrase the popular high school essay question, What Does Freedom Mean?

what's the job, Mik?

I was busy crapping my pants.

Yesss, I'm doing nothing tomorrow. Afternoon game!

ahhhh!!!!! where is everybody.

busy dancing in the streets!

there should be dancing in the streets!

right. that's why we aren't at our computers.

old joke there, chris. old joke.

The only problem is that I'm usually asleep at 1 PM. I think I can make an exception for this, though.

your mom's an old joke!

what will Pet have to do tomorrow (if he plays) to get on Terry's good side. I say he will have to hit at least 3 HRs and also punch Manny Delcarmen in the face.

I've already set my VCR!

I'm soooo happy for Olga.

Five of the next six pitchers the Sox face are righties. Petagine should get three starts in there. I wouldn't be surprised by just one, or fewer.

But once there is freedom, utopia is inevitable. There may be some last throes of evildoers benching Petagine, yet freedom cannot be stopped.

oh man, I knew that MLB.tv purchase was worthwhile...and my boss isn't around...Freedom!

Thirty seconds into Baseball Tonight, and still no mention of tonight's obvious top story!!

Karl Ravech, unlike Theo, clearly hates freedom.

i predict he will hit at least 5 home runs tomorrow!

He has to do something quick. Bellhorn is due back soon.

Thirty seconds into Baseball Tonight, and still no mention of tonight's obvious top story!!

Probably just waiting for the video to come down off the satellite of the jubilant crowd tearing down the hated wall that stood for so long between Rhode Island and Massachusetts.

Probably just waiting for the video to come down off the satellite of the jubilant crowd tearing down the hated wall that stood for so long between Rhode Island and Massachusetts.

David Hasselhoff is singing as the roaring crowd tears away chunks of that awful edifice.

It is official:

8/3/05 Placed 1B John Olerud on the 15-day disabled listed, retroactive to Aug. 1, with a left hamstring strain and recalled 1B Roberto Petagine from Triple-A Pawtucket.

Who will be taken off the 40 man? My guess is that Bausher is waived; with the emergence of Pap and Delcarmen, there is no need for another possible RH pitcher to use if 8 others are hurt.

(BTW: Mikael, you were right the other day; I didn't think Theo would do it!)

i predict he will hit at least 5 home runs tomorrow!

My senitments exactly.

From SOSH (posted by Spacemanlee2000)

If an injury had to be what created this scenario, a Millar fat strain/pulled fat would have been better than the Olerud injury IMO.



That's some high comedy. "fat strain/pulled fat" (!)

Are there any other players (other than Fielder), who started in the US, went to Japan, and then came back with at least moderate success? And no, whatever Kapler does won't be moderate success.

Petagine IL ranks:

BA 2nd
HR 7th (with the least # of AB of any of the top 15)
OBP 1st (.452, Ambres 2nd at .401)
SLG 1st (.635, Leifer 2nd at .595)
BB 1st

YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1111111

Didn't Dan S. say this would never happen?

Ambres 2nd at .401

So, since Ambres is now hitting .385/.484/.654 in the majors after hitting a mere .294/.401/.495 in the minors, does that mean Petagine will hit about .428/.546/.839 in the majors?

Free Roberto Peta...! uh


Free Kevin Youkilis!
Free Kevin Youkilis!

I'm suffering from a tad bit of optimism, here. Petagine's recall is a headline story in both the Glove and Herald. That suggests the team thinks it matters a bit. Further, Terry's really saying all the right things.

Globe: Petagine Gets Long-Awaited Call - Red Sox first baseman John Olerud, who said he felt a twinge in his sore left hamstring during batting practice before last night's 8-5 victory over the Royals at Fenway Park, was placed on the 15-day disabled list. His roster spot was filled by Pawtucket first baseman Roberto Petagine, who will get a chance to show his talents starting today.

Manager Terry Francona said the team elected to go with Petagine, who has had a productive Triple A season. He was hitting .327 with 20 homers and 69 RBIs in 74 games at Pawtucket.

"[PawSox manager] Ron Johnson has been raving about him," Francona said of Petagine, who underwent knee surgery in spring training, preventing him from making the 25-man roster.

Herald: Petagine Gets Chance, Olerud Goes on DL - John Olerud's minor left hamstring strain has opened up an opportunity for Roberto Petagine to finally crack the Red Sox' roster.

Petagine, who has been destroying International League pitching at Triple-A Pawtucket, was called up following last night's 8-5 win over the Kansas City Royals when Olerud was placed on the 15-day disabled list. The former Japan Central League MVP with the Yakult Swallows was batting a .327 with 20 homers, 69 RBI and a .452 on-base percentage in 74 games for the PawSox.

"He's been tearing up Triple A," manager Terry Francona said of the 34-year-old first baseman/designated hitter. "This is a guy with a lot of experience. He's gone down there and done what everyone asked him to do. (Pawtucket manager) Ron Johnson has been raving about him for a while."

Is it possible that, by virtue of being 34 and a career NPB star, Petagine will be seen by Tito as some odd sort of "proven veteran"? That would be cool.

A little dusty in here, no?

I'm...just...so...happy.

.428/.546/.839

Come on, Biff, let's be realistic. I see no reason to expect more than a .350/.500/.675 line.

Is the game on NESN this afternoon?

Hear ye, hear ye. Come one, come all. Step right up and get your fanboy projection on the record!!

60-80 PA's

.341/.403/.542

I'm not as optimistic as the rest of you about a player in his mid 30's who went to Japan as he couldn't make it earlier in the majors. I hope I'm wrong.

45-60 pa's

.278/.360/.480

I'm not as optimistic as the rest of you about a player in his mid 30's who went to Japan as he couldn't make it earlier in the majors.

His last year in the Majors, he hit .405/.468 with Cincinnati in 78 PA's. After that year he determined he was sick of being jerked around so he went to Japan, made a boat-load of dough, raked for 6 seasons and is now back.

CFBPS: 325/425/550

Now some rational ####...

Petagine's MLE has been hanging around the 900-950 OPS range for a good month or so, now. I discount a little bit because that's better than he projected preseason. And because a major league quality hitter, I think, will do a little better against AAA pitching than would be expected. MLE's are not derived from the numbers of MLB-regular type players, but rather from more marginal players and prospects. Petagines are a rare exception.

So, 375/475, I think.

Willl Francona play him? God, I hope so.

40-60 PA's
.301/.389/.480

Is he signed for next year?

millar goes down with a freak injury caused by riding a bucking bronco and petagines the starting 1b the rest of the way. 170 AB, .406/.587/.802

now THAT is CFBPS.

285/375/525 Print 'em!

.290/.370/.500

Petagine isn't signed for next year but I believe he is eligible for arbitration since he does not have 6 years of major league service time. This is unless he has something in his contract that makes him a free agent like Hideki Matsui.

I actually think Hideki might be comparable to Petagine as a hitter if Petagine has not hit the decline phase of his career. Their hitting ability seemed similar prior to 2004 when Petagine had an off year because of his knee. Based on his performance this year, Petagine seems to be back to his pre - 2004 level of production.

.299/.381/.505
57AB

One game-winning HR.

If Petagine really does hit this well down the stretch, I get this awful feeling Berman is going to call him "Roy-berto 'Hobbs' Petagine"

also, anybody notice we're up 4.5 on the Yankees? Just saying, it happened pretty quickly.

also, anybody notice we're up 4.5 on the Yankees? Just saying, it happened pretty quickly.

sssshhh you'll jinx it!

I think it's been quiet because it's been the ugliest 7-game win streak I've ever seen. It still doesn't feel like they're a >.550 team. even with the streak. But if they really aren't all that great, it's nice to have a cushion.

I think Darren nailed the Bermanism this spring - Roberto Petagine in a bottle

I hope he hits. Without Nixon for a while, we really need another thumper.

also, anybody notice we're up 4.5 on the Yankees? Just saying, it happened pretty quickly.

My copy of the standings says we're 10 games up.

It is true, this team doesn't feel that good. And yet...they are the best team in baseball by W3 at BPro...and yet, they haven't had their ace starter or their ace closer all season. The first base situation (until today!) has been disgusting, as has 2nd base for the most part, Renteria hade 1 great month (but oh what a month, and I guess his OBP was really good last month, which is all we really need from him).

The extent to which Tek, Damon, Manny, and Ortiz (with help from Nixon) are carrying the team is impressive.

and Tito loves Petagine, batting clean up.

Re-imprison Petagine!

Mikael brought it up in the game chatter to a top-10 all ugly game (and dissapointingly un-petagine filled), but when does Varitek become an MVP candidate? He is projected to catch 135 games and have 26 HRs. I think his RBI total will keep him out of contention Mikael, despite the fact that he's killing the ball. He's just 15th in VORP, but I do feel like catchers ought to get a little more love than they do.

Sadly for Orioles fans, their fade means that Tejada and Roberts won't get the MVP love they deserve. Michael Young likewise. So basically we have...a bunch of Yankees and Red Sox on the position player side, and I can't think of a pitcher who really merits it.

So, all we need is Jason Stark and Gammons to start slowly saying, "Varitek could be an MVP candidate." Then Buster Olney and Page 2 will start writing, "Is Varitek an MVP candidate," then it gets debated on PTI, and suddenly we have an MVP candidate.

Whoa, Varitek hit his first grand slam?

Whoa, Varitek hit his first grand slam?

Yeah, and at the time Boston had 9 runs on 3 hits. That was pretty funny.

Yeh, I like the projections that come in around .290/.380/.510. I think those are entirely reasonable.

He didn't have much of a game today but it's only one game.

Nice slam by Tek, the team's MVP.

In the current win streak - now 8 games - the Red Sox have won once by 4 runs, thrice by 3 runs, twice by 2 runs and twice by 1 run. They've basically been scoring just enough to win, each day. Their Pyth record for the eight games is about 5.5-2.5, which is really pretty darn good. Weird win streak, though.

I really hope Petagine doesn't get buried after one bad game. I'd like to at least get to see him play in a Red Sox uniform.

Nice write up on Roberto by Sickels: http://www.minorleagueball.com/story/2005/8/4/162111/3528

OK, I keep talking about my old projections that have the Red Sox finishing around 94 wins - and the Yankees at 89 wins (88 if they lose today).

I tried a different approach. Here's what I did:

1. I assumed that the probability of Team A beating Team B was...
...where a and b are the winning percentage at the "true" level, for Team A and Team B respectively. In words, the right side works out to:

(Prob. that A wins and B loses)
-------------------------------------------
(Prob A wins and B loses, + Prob B wins and A loses)

2. Given each AL team's actual performance against each of the other AL teams, I regressed to solve for a and b (and c for Team C, and d for Team D, and so on).

I did 1. and 2. to mitigate the effects of strength of schedule. But, to be honest, at this point in the season it doesn't make much of a difference. (The Twins went from .528 to a regressed .514 vs. the AL; the White Sox went from .648 to .633; and Texas went from .500 to .511; but those were the most significant jumps. The Red Sox regression ended in line with actual.)

3. Using each team's remaining schedule, I then used the formula in 1. and the "true" win %s from 2. to solve for the expected number of wins.

4. Adding in the actual wins to date, here's what I get:
This method doesn't take into account differences in home/road performance, so I still feel confident in the Red Sox finishing with 94 wins.

And, obviously, this doesn't take into account any roster changes. The Yankees will likely undergo several changes soon, with most of their pitching staff on the road to DL recovery. But I like the size of their expected deficit.

They've basically been scoring just enough to win, each day.

Or giving up just enough to win...

they just *know* how to win. it's cuz of the veteran presence. duh!

I HATE FREEDOM!

BOS 92-70 --
NYY 86-76 6
TOR 85-77 7
BAL 77-85 15
TBD 65-97 27

Remember that thread where someone asked where we thought Baltimore would be in the standings by Labor Day?

Ole Joe Bivens said they'd be in 4th place, double digits back of first, with the Yankees and Toronto battling for second. Yes indeed I did.

Therefore, I think these projections are accurate. Good job.

vi, projections seem reasonable. in fact they match BP's Davenport sim fairly closely.

Davenport's projections, updated today:
BOS 92.4 69.6 playoff %:84.2
NYY 86.1 74.9 playoff %:30.4

Now if ARod could just stop bashing 9th inning homers.

Who will be taken off the 40 man? My guess is that Bausher is waived

I didn't see this posted elsewhere, but Narveson was DFA'ed yesterday to make room for Petagine on the 40-man.

I didn't see this posted elsewhere, but Narveson was DFA'ed yesterday to make room for Petagine on the 40-man.

Thanks, VI. An odd choice.

BTW: can someone tell me if he was really DFA'ed or if he was waived? I.e., is the period to claim him 3 or 10 days? As he wasn't in the majors, I think the proper course is to waive him -- he is already assigned. But, I don't know.

And, while we are on the subject, note that BK has been getting progressively better each month . . . (Note that he would do that here, or that we'd have the patience for him to do that hear. Just sayin', is all.)

Woah. BK's been awesome since June. Weirdest split: 4.11 ERA at home, 6.42 on the road. ????

I've gotten to see Kim a few times on EI. His velocity is still pretty mediocre, but he's able to maintain the 86-87 range for most of the game. The old frisbee slider is back, though, and he's spotting a little changeup pretty well. I think Kim's back. (Note: previous sentence has been typed by this poster at least once a month for nearly two years.)

On Petagine, how much was last night his fault? I only saw the highlights. It looked, on the glance you get on ESPN, like Mueller's throw was unplayable, but Timlin's might have been. What was the take here?

I just checked SoSH, and they say that it was Graffanino who missed Timlin's throw, not Petagine. Freedom was charging the bunt.

I realize that when I blame Freedom for the sins of other individuals, the terrorists have already won. I apologize.

So, could he have played Mueller's throw? It looked like a disaster, airmailed to the home plate side, but I only saw it once, early this morning.

Mikael, Tony Clark *might* have had a shot at it. It was AIRMAILED. If Freedom had managed to nsag it, the guy was still safe at first at best, and even then it would have been a heck of a play.

Petagine's only misstep in the 9th inning was his poor throw to second base, and it wasn't much of a misstep, since he had no chance at throwing him out and there was no further advance.

Oh, and even though it was Graffanino and not Petagine fielding that throw, I don't think Timlin's throw was playable either.

Petagine is in the lineup today, playing 1B and batting 6th.

I thought Timlin's throw was pretty playable, but Graffanino has already set his feet, which was a mistake. Mueller's throw was pretty high and I'm fairly sure it was not catchable, but maybe Olerud's height would have made the difference.

I'm guessing that Petagine has sat the last two because of concerns over his knee on the turf. One of three is about right if that's the case. I was surprised that they didn't PH him for Graf last night, but then, I think that shows his stature on the team (very low).

I certainly hope he puts up a couple hits today.

Weirdest split: 4.11 ERA at home, 6.42 on the road. ????

Check out Jeff Francis: 3.59 ERA at home, 7.24 on the road.

BTW: can someone tell me if he was really DFA'ed or if he was waived? I.e., is the period to claim him 3 or 10 days? As he wasn't in the majors, I think the proper course is to waive him -- he is already assigned. But, I don't know.

He was indeed DFA'ed. Doing so removed him from the 40-man roster immediately, but still gives the team a chance to explore their (trade) options. Putting someone on waivers does not clear a roster spot immediately.

Steve Buckley actually wrote a really nice article on Petagine for the Herald. He seems like a pretty easy guy to root for.

Freedom Update:

.286.375.357 (because of a completely ######## scoring)

Thank goodness he is only allowed to play half the game. Thank goodness they take such pains to get his glove out of the lineup by the 5th, but would never have done the same for Millar. Maybe he needs to start drinking JD before games, dying his hair, doing stupid handshakes, and just being an all around dork.

i really don't get it, at all, why is he coming out of these games. I'm really growing to hate Kevin Millar.

.286.375.357 (because of a completely #### scoring)

Yeah, that was definitely a double, and he should be at .286/.375/.429. No matter, he'll keep climbing anyway.

He'd probably be better than that right now if Tito hadn't decided he'd rather have two impressive Kapler groundouts.

Freedom now stands at .333.400.556, and that includes the aforementioned ######## call. And guess what? He even got to play a whole game today!

I have given up on him winning the job over Millar, and I'm now just hoping that he'll stay as a bat on the bench.

And guess what? He even got to play a whole game today!

no he didn't.

Oh, silly me. I saw an inaccurate box score. ####### Francona, MIILAR IS NOT A GOOD DEFENSIVE PLAYER! He also cannot hit.

WHAT THE HELL DO THEY HAVE AGAINST PETAGINE!!!???

Well, I think Millar's a bit better at 1st. And he's a disaster in RF, so it's good to make the switch for Kapler.

Other than the 5th inning defensive sub against Texas, I've been pretty happy with the use of Freedom. Millar is not such a bad hitter that he shouldn't be platooned, especially given the huge upgrade in outfield defense when he isn't there.

The bigger issue, for me, is what happens when Trot returns. That's the decision point. I don't have a lot of optimism there.

Well, I think Millar's a bit better at 1st. And he's a disaster in RF, so it's good to make the switch for Kapler.

I've seen little evidence of the former, and the latter's pretty irrelevant. You can easily get Millar out of RF by sitting Millar down.

Other than the 5th inning defensive sub against Texas, I've been pretty happy with the use of Freedom. Millar is not such a bad hitter that he shouldn't be platooned, especially given the huge upgrade in outfield defense when he isn't there.

I don't mind the platoon either. My hope is that the Sox come to their senses and decide that, when Olerud comes back, Youks can platoon with Petagine, and Olerud can come in for D.


The bigger issue, for me, is what happens when Trot returns. That's the decision point. I don't have a lot of optimism there.

Olerud's due back first. If Trot returns in September (which sounds about right, doesn't it?), then we have 40 spots to use. What happens when Olerud comes off the DL in a couple days will be more telling.

I figure Olerud will do a rehab stint first, right? I think we're far enough along in the season that Olerud can have his rehab stretched into September.

If he gets recalled and freedom sent packing, well, that'll be pretty incredible. I've been projecting that Petagine has another two weeks to start against RHPs before the crunch. Then Nixon and Olerud come back, and Tito will have to do some managing.

You're probably right about the defensive replacements. I haven't been worrying about it too much because I've just come to accept that Tito thinks 1B defense is more important in late innings than any other position. That doesn't really make it excusable, but I have sorta stopped thinking about it much.

My fantasy team loves Freedom. And, since we get 3 minor league keepers, it loves Petunia too. The true test of my CFB-ism will be if I dump Daric Barton and BJ Upton for Lester and Annie.

bump. Mikael, Will Carroll says good bye Freedom. Ridiculous.

Well, that was fun while it lasted...glad he got a fair chance...

I can't find any real report to confirm Baseball Drudge on that. I'm holding out hope.

Larry Lucchino may take our lives, but he'll never take... Our Freedom!!

ya know, this team is so ####### frustrating. if they demote freedom i'll tune in for papelbon's starts and that's pretty much it. i'll watch the a's or the braves or some other team. i have no desire to watch them right now. they may be in first place but it's not a very good team. #### this.

the dbacks could use another fan, chris...

i just don't know how the #### you can pick millar over petagine right now? and why isn't youks playing more? and end this curt schilling in the bullpen experiment. it ####### sucks.

the dbacks could use another fan, chris...

Conor Jackson:Tony Clark::Roberto Petagine:Kevin Millar ... maybe not exactly, as clark is clearly better than kevin millar, but you get the point. and i'm not giving up on them completely. it's just this year's team is ####### pissing me off. especially the millar/schilling/francona triumvirate that seems to be running the show.

i can't believe i just wrote that clark was better htan millar. is that really true? where the FÜCK was he in 2002? #### you, tony clark.

I just checked what Will Carroll actually said. #### him.

"John Olerud will be activated Wednesday. His hamstring has healed up, forcing Roberto Petagine back to Triple-A "

seeing as how it's will carroll, i'd say it's safe to assume that he's full of ####. what a ####### #######. he's done a pretty good job of dragging down baseballprospectus don't you think?

I mean, there's just no point to DFA'ing Petagine right now.

There are two more weeks before the roster expand. All they need to do is extend Olerud's rehab a wee bit, or option Youks - it's not like he's getting ####### playing time.

If it really happens, it's straight ########.

4 in a row! 5 if you don't count #91. and you probably shouldn't as levski is a dbacks fan and dbacks fans don't really exist. maybe i should do some work.

that's 7 if you don't count 96, chris. clark is just having one of those career years. the one millar had a couple of years ago. unlike millar, i think (and i hope) that clark will be ok with giving jackson the most at bats at 1b next year and beyond. and unlike millar, clark doesn't try to be the word of god in the clubhouse. not to mention he's actually better than millar, defensively and offensively.

This is ########. This is ####### ridiculous. What does Petagine need to do? Seriously. What else does he need to do? This is so stupid. I'm choking on my own rage here.

the one millar had a couple of years ago.

Uh, until this year, all of Millar's starting seasons were pretty similar, except for a bit of a power uptick way back in '01. I wouldn't call any of them a "career" year.