This team is depressing
As much as I want to be positive about this team, it’s very hard to do so. Each time AGonz completes an AB, I’m thinking that I’m about to see the top of the order again. Unfortunately, there are always two surprise chumps batting after him these days.
The bullpen acceptable, but Francona does not seem to know how to manage it. Any game in which the Sox have the lead, he will go to Delcarmen in the 7th (if needed), then Timlin for the 8th, then Papelbon for the 9th. Sometimes, as with today, he’ll bring in Timlin or Pap early. There are a couple problems with this. First, it means that if any of those 3 have a bad day, they’re going to negatively impact the team. If any are having a good day, they’re still only going to get 1 IP and give way to someone else who may or may not be good this day. Worst of all, Timlin is not better than Delcarmen right now, and bringing him in to bail out Delcarmen makes no sense.
The back end of the rotation, which you’d think would be the worst part of the team, is actually the least of our concerns these days. Johnson’s looked good in his past 2 starts and Wells looked pretty good in his last one (in which he got singled to death on some well-placed grounders). Beckett should pitch so well as these two.
For the first time, I’m starting to think that this team might not make the playoffs, something that I considered nearly impossible a couple weeks ago. It’ll be disappointing, of course, if they don’t get the division, but they are always a huge underdog for that. What would be far worse is for them not to get the Wild Card, for which they should be the perennial favorite.
Maybe I just need a visit from good ol’ Mr. Sunshine.
Darren
Posted: August 06, 2006 at 05:41 PM |
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Everybody has a bad week now and then. But we've got a lot going for us, including:
The schedule. 29 remaining home games vs. 23 road, the next 3 in KC before a nice homestand that starts with 3 against the O's, so things could get better fairly quickly. 9 games against the MFY! Our destiny's our own!
Our deadline acquisitions are Wells, Javy Lopez, and possibly Foulke. The first two have been working out some kinks this week, but there were some signs of life in Wells; Javy hit .280/.325/.435 pre-All-Star and has been in a funk since, but being in a race will get him going, and he'll be a useful bat even when 'Tek gets back in Sept.
The kids. Lester is already contributing in a big way; Hansen and Delcarmen will get better and better as they get their feet on the ground. Wily Mo will be an upgrade over Trot. Pedroia will get called up soon and add energy and depth in the middle IF.
Mr. Sunshine remains confident.
I'm with you , Ole P.! I just dunno why...
Go AL Central teams!
Lopez looks awful. Timne for another cycle.
What has hurt is (a) the starting pitching sucks, badly, (b), the front of the bullpen has been only mediocre instead of lights-out, and (c) the Yankees won't lose. The problem here is that the team needs to be nearly perfect with the Yankees finally playing up to their payroll, and the team doesn't have the starting pitching to get close to that.
The failures here are, (a) the failure in pre-season evaluation that found that Dinardo and co were worthy backups for the rotation, which led to the Arroyo trade, and (b) the failure to make a mid-season acquisition that could help. I would put Francona something like 7th on the list of problems.
It appears they have set their eyes on the Red sox this season.
He is 25, isn't that a trade for the future and the present?
Go AL Central teams!
Thanks for stopping by Sox Therapy. Hope to see you again soon!
The National League has playoffs too.
They're better than the White Sox and Twins.
Half a game out of the wild card, 2 back in the division. On the way into KC. The sky is hardly falling.
Compare to the Angels "acquisitions" - Kendrick, Weaver, Saunders.
Not particularly relevant. Has *any* team added that much value from within their organization down the stretch? - far more of an exception than the rule. OleP's point seemed to be more of the "remember, it's not like we didn't add *anybody* coming down the stretch." Two of the three of those guys will do more to help win games for the Red Sox down the stretch than the guys they are replacing would have. (I say 2 of 3 because at least one of those guys seems likely to come back useless - only a guess, of course). It's also not relevant because the Angels and the Red Sox are not in any sort of race. The Angels only have a chance in the AL West. If they were even remote Wild Card contenders, or say, the Yankees, then that would be of issue to the Red Sox.
Give it a few weeks, and just relax. If the Sox are 3-5 out of each race at the end of August, then it's time to worry.
I'd even put a positive spin on these notes:
So all Pantload has to do is rebuild some arm strength to get the fastball back in shape. And Pedroia is, indeed, going to be an IF supersub fairly soon. Can't wait to see him.
--Mr. Sunshine
In the same way as the NFC had playoffs this past season.
I thought he was traded to the Padres to get Belli back...
1) Natural temperament. I was brought up to believe that public displays of optimism will be punished harshly by an angry god.
2) The starting pitching. From Rudy Pemberton at SoSH, here are the Sox runs allowed in this recent stretch:
4, 4, 5, 9, 3, 5, 5, 8, 6, 10, 8, 6, 5, 7, 2, 8, 7
Most of that is starting pitching, though the bullpen helped yesterday. I don't see much evidence to believe that Beckett, Wells and Johnson can be expected to win games down the stretch without huge offensive help.
3) The competition is good, much better than the last two years. It seemed for a while like the Yankees might finally see bad management catch up to them, but that clearly won't be the case, and the Twins and White Sox are excellent teams.
after recording a four over 76 today.
Right.
Fixed that for you.
The current situation with the Red Sox is only depressing if you declare last week as a trend, not an isolated incident. If you trend forward, they'll finish 24 games out of first place and with a record 58 players on the DL simultaneously by the end of September. Their entire roster will be made up of whatever waiver dumps the Devil Rays let them have, and Rudy Seanez will not only be our best pitcher, but our best hitter.
Nice strawman, eh? If your options are to believe that or to be optimistic, you don't really have a choice. Actually, now that I think of it, I think "The Strawman" would make for a nice nickname for Rudy Seanez. He inaccurately represents the idea of a major league pitcher, and when he is used in that role the opposition lights him up.
Anyway... The problem now is not the bullpen, but the starters. Because of injury, youth, or just general crappiness, the starters aren't pitching deep enough into games. With a rotation of pitchers for whom 6 IP is a major accomplishment - whatever the reason for it - the bullpen will not perform well.
In 2006, here are the average IP per start for the Red Sox by month, culled from the ESPN.com game logs:
6.1 April
5.8 May
5.9 June
5.7 July
6.1 August
Here's what we have for 2004 from the top 5 starters (who, combined, started 157 games):
6.4 April
6.4 May
6.3 June
6.5 July
7.0 August
If you assume nine innings of pitching in general, here's the increase in bullpen workload from then to now:
+16% April
+21% May
+13% June
+33% July
+44% August
I'm not sure that things would be OK even if they maintained the pace of April-June; they could probably maintain a higher workload over a short span but not an entire season. In 2004 the starters began pitching deeper into ballgames in August and September, and things started to click. This year the holdovers (Schilling and Wake) are averaging about 1/3 an inning less than two years ago; the replacements are averaging 2/3 an inning less than their counterparts; and several pitchers are throwing a smaller share of total IP than intended due to injury, with ill-prepared-to-go-deep-into-games spare parts taking on the remainder.
Can they go deeper into games? Possibly. Jon Lester is building up and progressing well, and if Wells comes back to his usual form we should be able to take a (pant)load off the bullpen. If Wake comes back, the same goes. But that recipe for success requires players to come back from injury, and I don't like to rely on that. (It's also an open question how the loss of Varitek will affect how deep starters go into games. I certainly don't know.)
I think the overall workload on the pen (outside of Paps) is probably reasonable. Tito has thrown a combined 100 not-low-leverage-enough innings at the Gruesome Twosome so far. Hansen's got 63 total innings (inflated b/c of the "stretching out" in the minors), Delcarmen has 52 IP, on pace for 77 (his previous seasons were 73 and 69 IP).
There's a case to be made that the team as constituted is less able to address multiple consecutive close games b/c of the inability to trust Seanez, Tavarez, Snyder, etc...but it doesn't look they're driving over the cliff of imminent bullpen demise.
If ~95 wins doesn't get you in the playoffs it is somewhat hard to figure out what to do better. 95 wins - that is a fantastic season.
Following the transactions on soxprospects.com, between the start of the season and 8/31 (the last day of the 25-man roster), about 40% of the 2004 season featured 12+ pitchers on the Sox staff (not counting Dave McCarty). They've carried 12+ pitchers for 50% of the 2006 season to date. I believe neither number supports the distinction as being as black-and-white as your sentence reads. Ultimately, in both seasons they've carried 12 pitchers for a significant period.
The 2004 bunch was probably even more reliant on a few top relivers than the current squad. Lest we forget, outside of Foulke (83 IP), Timlin (76.1 IP), and Embree (52.1 IP), only Ramiro Mendoza threw 30 innings out of the pen (he threw 30.2).
This makes my point somewhat. The bullpen as a whole threw many fewer innings in 2004 than they're being asked to do in 2006. If in 2004 you were already maxing out usage of your top 3, an increase in workload for the whole pen realistically must fall on someone other than the top 3. This is not a problem with allocation of bullpen resources as much as it is a problem with overburdening of the whole bullpen. And that, in turn, comes from starters not going deep into games.
The average number of relievers was 11.4 in 2004, and 11.5 in 2006, an increase in staffing by a little less than 1%. Bullpen innings have increased by 15-20% in the first half, and 35-40% in the second half so far. The bulk of those extra IP will go to the worst pitchers in the pen.
I'm not saying the Sox will collapse because of the pen. I'm saying that the 2004 rotation stepped things up in August and September, and we're going to need that kind of performance over the stretch run for things to fall into place. If there's one thing I want to see, it's for the starters to pitch deeper into games.
And failed
How many teams have shutdown 10th and 11th guys out of the bullpen?
Is there any evidence at all that having Varitek means anything to the pitching staff?
The staff was nothing special last year. This year the only decent starter is Schilling, who prepares so much he doesn't need a catcher thinking for him. Hard to argue Varitek is helping Beckett at all (he should stop signalling for the gopherball) though you might make an argument for Lester. Varitek is nothing special as far as throwing goes.
CERA (a flawed measure to start with) in this case won't tell you anything other than how Wakefield compares to the other pitchers.
But the media says he's a leader and just like Jeter, wears a "C" on his jersey. So who needs evidence?
Well, no one, really, that wasn't the point. They don't need to be shutdown guys, but it would be good if you could use these guys with a 4-run lead against a low-scoring office. Combine vi's point about starters failing to pitch deep into the game with a bullpen of: (a) a rock star, (b) a 40-year-old who has struggled since coming off the DL, (c and d) two rookies who are on pace to surpass their professional career highs for innings, and you might think about whether you want to spread some more innings around.
Is the drop-off from Hansen/MDC to Seanez really that extreme that he can't be used under any circumstance save a 5-run plus deficit? Maybe Foulke will give them that support. My concern would be that the rookies are less effective than they could be b/c they've been overworked unnecessarily. Certainly Tito/Nipper know much more about the way he's throwing to be able to make the right call here...but though they've in general been good, it's not like the rooks have been lights out anyway.
Jeter also doesn't play hockey. Which is the only acceptable use of the "C."
This year's team features the greatest clutch hitter in history, one of the greatest hitters in history, a dazzling defensive shortstop, the emergence of Youkilis, the bounceback of Lowell, an astonishing young pitcher having one of the greatest relief seasons in history, a promising rookie lefty, several other promising young arms, ... what's not to like? The starting pitching has been real shaky, but the flip side to that is that it has a lot of upside.
There's nothing about this team that is depressing. If the Yankees weren't playing so well, everything would be dandy. Sure it's aggravating that they are playing so well, but that's out of our control.
And please, can we have a moratorium on griping about Varitek's game-calling and Tito's bullpen usage. I seriously doubt either of these things has cost us more than a game, if it has cost us anything at all. This obsession is so tired it's off-putting. So Varitek is a mediocre game-caller and Tito is a mediocre handler of the bullpen. So what?
We don't. Just Darren.
The rest of us are here to bring him out of his depression - or in my case, to refocus it.
On the rotation remark, I'd point out that the plan now might be to use "4-IP Snyder" in a suitable role in long relief; the remaining question is whether Pantload and Johnson will provide some quality starts down the stretch (about which I am very optimistic)... or whether somebody like Livan, who was moved today, would've been a better bet. Then there's Wakefield's possible return...
The shakiness and upside of the starting pitching are pretty easily separable, IMO. Beckett is the embodiment of both shakiness and upside. Lester, however, has been very good, not shaky. And Schilling, Johnson, Wakefield and Wells may have less upside (as compared to current performance) than any other trio of pitchers in baseball. The shakiness is greatly the fault of Johnson, Wells and Wakefield, and no one expects them to develop into better pitchers than they are now.
I'm actually growing a bit annoyed about this criticism. Do you really watch the Red Sox lose and enjoy it? I sure don't. I don't think there's anything wrong with that reaction.Unlike the rest of baseball, which is wholly under the control of random internet fans?
Not only does he have that, he has "666" on his scalp.
Supposedly Jeter and Varitek ended up at consecutive urinals at a bar one night and Varitek looked over and said, "Hey, I notice you have a W and Y tatooed on your pee-pee. I'm dating a girl named Wendy and she made me get her name there on mine. You must be with a girl named Wendy, too!"
Jeter looked askance and said
I'm glad for this thread, I was getting pretty depressed as well. There's still a lot of cause for hope.
And yes, I have to complain about the team every August. Especially Tito.
The thing is, we are going to lose at least four out of every 10 games, on average. I accept that. I also accept that the Yankees are going to win 95-100 games and I don't get bent out of shape when they do. When I say the Yankees are out of "our" control I mean the organization's control.
Happiness is a choice. I choose to count my blessings. With all that's gone wrong this year, we are still right there in the thick of it. As I said, the wins are being delivered on time and on budget, and that's a hell of a nice thing. I'm not saying you are spoiled, but your expectations are on the high side.
Speaking of CWS, did you see Ozzie leave Buehrle in until the 7th inning blew up completely tonight? If Ozzie was our manager, I couldn't find a ray of sunlight.
The MFY pitchers have been very fortunate, and that's about to turn. Some BABIP numbers:
Villone .253
Mussina .270
Rivera .271
Proctor .274
Wang .278
Myers .291
Johnson .294
Their defense ain't that great, folks; it's pure luck. Only Farnsworth (.323) and Wright (.340) have been getting worse-than-average luck on balls in play. Mussina and Wang have been awesome, but they're due for a rough patch; The Unit's rough patch is due to get rougher.
By the Spirit of Voros, let the Yankee pitching crumble!
Not sure about that, OleP. Both feature out-pitches that sink. You would expect the BAPIP to be lower for guys like that.
Is there a comparable list of Boston pitchers so we can tell if the Red Sox will suffer a similar correction?
Papelbon .208
MDC .392
Schilling .308
Lester .303
Timlin .279
Seanez .338
Snyder .341
Tavarez .313
Johnson .340
Wells .350
Hansen .357
Beckett .265
I don't know how useful this is, other than to point out that Beckett's been disappointing this year.
Papelbon .193
Wakefield .255
Beckett .258
Timlin .276
Foulke .302
Schilling .308
Lester .318
Clement .322
Seanez .325
Tavarez .326
Snyder .347
Hansen .360
Delcarmen .390
</pre>
Sox BABIP LD% ExpBABIP Luck
Dinardo .400 17.90% .299 -.101
Delcarmen .390 23.60% .356 -.034
Clement .322 17.00% .290 -.032
Tavarez .326 18.30% .303 -.023
Snyder .347 20.80% .328 -.019
Schilling .308 17.50% .295 -.013
Hansen .360 22.80% .348 -.012
Lester .318 19.30% .313 -.005
Wakefield .255 14.10% .261 .006
Seanez .325 21.40% .334 .009
Beckett .258 15.30% .273 .015
Foulke .302 21.00% .330 .028
Timlin .276 19.70% .317 .041
Papelbon .193 13.00% .250 .057
Yankees BABIP LD% ExpBABIP Luck
Rivera .271 11.80% .238 -.033
Johnson .294 14.90% .269 -.025
Chacon .313 18.30% .303 -.010
Farnsworth .323 19.90% .319 -.004
Wang .278 16.30% .283 .005
Wright .340 22.70% .347 .007
Proctor .274 16.60% .286 .012
Mussina .270 17.10% .291 .021
Villone .253 16.60% .286 .033
</pre>
So actually Mariano has been unlucky this year. Overall both teams have similar
LD%, so Boston's BABIP should improve somewhat (depending what you believe about both teams' defense).
So sign me up for the optimists' kool-aid!
1. And Pedroia is, indeed, going to be an IF supersub fairly soon. Can't wait to see him. Does it make that much sense to recall Pedroia with both Loretta and Gonzalez performing about as well as could be expected of them? If it turns out Lowell is hobbled for an extended period, then perhaps a recall is justifiable. Otherwise, you're gambling a roster spot that Pedroia will step in and immediately play significantly better than Alex Cora, who has been pretty darn solid this season in his backup role. Once we were past July 31st and both starting middle IFers were still with the team, I no longer expected Pedroia to make much of an impact at the major league level this season. That's not to say he isn't ready, just that the impetus for giving him a shot isn't there like it was when Gonzalez and Loretta were both struggling in the first several weeks.
2. Hard to argue Varitek is helping Beckett at all (he should stop signalling for the gopherball) though you might make an argument for Lester. What's the argument for Lester? In the starts of his I've watched, including one in person here in Seattle, Varitek appears to be taking direction from the dugout before each pitch. I don't know if they're calling specific pitches or what, but Varitek certainly wasn't quarterbacking on his own out there when Lester was on the hill.
3. What's the punchline to #53? Or did I just not get it?
4. Am I just a curmudgeon if I hate Tito's bullpen management as much as Darren does? This is going to warrant its own post...
The series in Seattle in July put me over the edge on this; maybe it was just because the frustration is more acute in person. Anyway, in the first game of that series on July 21st, Snyder had to come out after cramping up while taking his warmup tosses in the bottom of the 6th. The score at that point was 8-2 Red Sox.
Tito uses Hansen, Delcarmen, and Timlin to finish the game, which the Sox win 9-4. Hansen had already been warming in the pen well before he had to come in on short notice for Snyder, so that's somewhat defensible. What's not defensible is why he was warming in the first place. When do you use the back end of your pen if not in the late middle innings of a game you lead by 6 runs? Tavarez (and Seanez for that matter) hadn't worked since July 16th. Those are tailor-made conditions for bringing in the long man, especially against a woeful offense like the Mariners'.
Tito missed another opportunity to get some low leverage work for the scrubs in the bottom of the 7th, at which point the Sox still led 8-2, instead electing to stick with Hansen, who got into trouble and had to be bailed out by someone reliable, necessitating the use of Delcarmen, who'd worked the night before against Texas and thrown two innings in the win over KC on July 17th. Timlin pitched the 9th with a 5-run lead. Tavarez and Seanez never even warmed up in this near-blowout, but had to be used in a tie game the following evening, with predictably frustrating (or frustratingly predictable) results.
Thankfully there were no obvious gaffes on Sunday, though the Sox lost anyway, in the thrilling fashion we all love, I guess. The only questionable move on Tito's part, I thought, was having Timlin pitch the 9th in a tie game instead of Papelbon. I think that was a mild mistake, magnified by the fact that Papelbon hadn't worked in 2+ days and that the Sox were on the road. I would probably have played it the way Tito did if I were the home team, but when your opponent has "sudden death" rights, I think you have to roll with your best and then go to Timlin in the 11th if you can't win it before then.
On the plus side, Lowell played, Javy got a couple hits, Dave Wallace is back, and the key elements of the 'pen have two 2 days off.
Batting Euclis in the 5 hole is puzzling, given that Wily Mo is .304/.367/510--but in Tito we trust, right Darren?
You haven't seen "The Aristocrats", I take it?
I wasn't making one, just trying to give Varitek every benefit of the doubt while I question how much his game calling means to the team. Without watching most of his games, I see 1) young pitcher having success 2) Maybe veteran catcher team captain has something to do with it.
If Varitek's game calling is nothing special, what does that leave? He's not much of a thrower. His OPS is only slightly higher than Javy Lopez.
Once again, thanks for your contributions to Sox Therapy. You should have quit after you called the Marlins WS win in July of 2003.
i think people here have gotten the main points. i want to say, in regards to lester, other people seem to be much higher on him than i am. the kid has major control issues--issues that followed him through the minor leagues. his major league k/9 to bb/9 now sits at 6.8/4.5. that is bad. i'm not saying he won't be good, but he's not ready yet. i am more optimistic about wells. he looks to be tiring by about the 4th or 5th innings. a couple more starts under his belt, and he should be back to being a pretty good pitcher. i know what people are saying about snyder, but i wouldn't mind him trading spots with lester to see what happens. his k/bb is nice and his BAPIP is .341
in regards to tito, i think his handling of the relievers has been poor. i'm a big fan of the "hot hand," and tito kills any hope of this every night with the way he manages that pen. if delcarmen is pitching well, why not leave him in? it makes more sense than to bring him back the next night, where he has a chance to have an off night. i think tito's handlng of the starters has been just as bad. he is almost always reactive, never proactive.
Set the bar low, maybe you'll be pleasantly surprised. And given his most recent two outings in Pawtucket, you may wish to set that bar very low. Like on the ground.
What's the difference between the most tormented fans in baseball and the most annoying? Apparently, about 8 wins:)
Tues: 1 IP, 1 hit, 2 BB, 18 pitches, only 7 strikes (2 4-pitch walks, I think)
Wed: 1 IP, which went: triple, sac fly, double, hard line drive into DP
I was exaggerating a bit in #86, but his 1.80 ERA in 5 pawtucket innings is not as solid as it sounds.
KILL ME
KILL ME
PLEASE KILL ME
Wow.
Reasons for optimism? Anyone?
They've now lost back-to-back series to the Rays and Royals. And they have the Tigers, White Sox, Yankees, Angels and A's coming up.
This is not a good team. They are playing like ####. They can't pitch, the bullpen suddenly stinks, the offense is moribund, and the defense is reverting back to the mean.
Can anyone look at this team and see a serious playoff contender? I can't. They've got exactly 1 1/2 decent starting pitchers (Schilling and the "good" Beckett). The bullpen is a complete disaster right now. With Papelbon reverting to form the team can't hope to win all those 1 run games anymore.
They've lost SIX AND A HALF GAMES in the standing over the last 3 weeks. Right now, they're a terrible baseball team.
I don't think they're going to make the playoffs, as awful as that sounds. They're not good enough.
Who knows - look on the bright side. If we make the World Seried we get to play a NL team!!!
Let me bone somebody's sister/girlfriend/wife
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