She'll be right mate!!

Indeed.

Add to the list of blessings: 85% SB success rate (40 stolen, 7 caught).

It’s probably a good time to take a step back and just enjoy it.

Try to remember that the next time you get apoplectic over Tito's bullpen management, Darren.

I am enjoying this... enjoying the bloody payback.

I am enjoying this... enjoying the bloody payback.

Who the hell needs payback? Seriously, just because we have to watch Lugo play does not mean we're deserving of extra goodies. The last four-plus years have been a bounty of riches, and the preceding 37 weren't really that bad, all things considered.

And Darren, as you are king of the pants pissers, I hope the post was written with tongue in cheek, not head in ...

Who the hell needs payback?

I don't know, an entire offseason of hearing people call Jon Lester "random small fry"

I don't know, an entire offseason of hearing people call Jon Lester "random small fry"

First, I don't even know what that means.

Second, if you're hanging around folks who talk about Jon Lester all offseason, you need to get out more.

New handle time!

Cancer got a bit of payback tonight, a no-hitter and a big FU. That's pretty awesome. Congrats to Lester.

Cancer got a bit of payback tonight, a no-hitter and a big FU. That's pretty awesome. Congrats to Lester.

OK, I'll grant that bastard cancer certainly deserves more than the occasional ass-kicking.

Entering tonight, the Red Sox led the AL with a 122 OPS+. Texas was 2nd with a 118, but after that it drops off to Tampa bay at 104.

kudos to lester. i don't know if he can last 6 innings in his next start, but hey =)

and i'm also drinking the varitek kool-aid...

mlb-record 4 no-nos caught.

oh, what a night!

Second, if you're hanging around folks who talk about Jon Lester all offseason, you need to get out more.

He hangs around people who would hand their children over to a prostitution ring in return for a chance to serve as human toilet paper at Chien-Ming Wang's house. And I'm pretty sure that's milder imagery than Wok would've given us.

-----------

Back to the original thread topic... This team has been a very entertaining team to watch. Naturally, they're entertaining because they're winning (on a 97-win pace as of today, BTW). But it's more than that. They have so many players right now who are a lot of fun to watch. There's the no-hit twins, Lester and Buchholz. Beckett established himself last year as a fun one to watch. Matsuzaka has an ERA+ around 200. Okajima. Papelbon. Lowell. Youkilis. Pedroia. Crisp and Ellsbury - at bat, in the field, and on the bases. Ortiz. And the guy - literally and figuratively - out in left field. That doesn't even count the captain of the team (131 OPS+) or Wakefield, who when he's on is a LOT of fun to watch.

In the next two games their starters are being called up from the minors. One gave up two hits in his major-league debut. The other has won a Cy Young Award.

Their backup 1B has a 140 OPS+; their backup catcher, 125; their utility infielder, 154, and his backup, 118.

This is a ridiculously fun time to be a Red Sox fan, and that's saying something for a team that had Pedro Martinez at his peak.

EDIT: nm

I went to a game a couple of weeks ago, and was thinking about who I'd see pitch. Of course I wanted to see Beckett, but Buchholz or Matsuzaka wouldn't be bad, and obviously it wouldn't suck to see Lester. I've always been a big Wakefield fan, so that would have been cool too. Even if Masterson were called up that would be good, although I'd rather catch him at AA closer to home some time.

I'd probably rather take my chances of getting Pedro in his prime or four stiffs (which was never the case, but just for the hypothetical) because Pedro was just that awesome. But it's pretty cool to go to the park almost guaranteed to see an interesting pitcher out there.

I'm really sick and tired of seeing the Red Sox beat the Yankees in the young arms race too.

That's roughly my thinking, dave. Pedro in his prime was more exciting than any of these guys, but that was only once every five days. These guys are Everyday Excitement.

Dave h, Pedro, Wakefield and three stiffs, except for that crazed period when Jimy relegated Wake to the bullpen. And Saberhagen was worth watching too, while he was there. But I agree the present loot are freakishly good -- Sox have had HUGE good luck with prospects that last 2 years.

I'm really sick and tired of seeing the Red Sox beat the Yankees in the young arms race too.

We wouldn't even have a thread on this had Callaspo gotten a hit.

Damn you, Callaspo, you brain dead Caribbean swinging at slop... and missing!

Sox have had HUGE good luck with prospects that last 2 years.

It's not good luck, it's superior development organization

It's not good luck, it's superior development organization

$100M player development machine.

-aw, I wanted the first Callaspo joke...

Good post, Darren. One thing that's been interesting about this run of success is that it hasn't been quite as personal. I had a relationship with Pedro and Nomar, and they carried an interchangeable bunch of teammates to some nice successes. Over the last 5-6 years, the love has really been spread around, with young guys like Youks and Ellsbury and Lester/Buchholz, long time Sox like Wakefield and Varitek and Manny, newer additions that you come to love like Bellhorn and Okajima and Mueller, and Papi, who is beyond categories. The joy in watching this team is watching all the different successes in their different forms, rather than the more intense enjoyment of Pedro's change or Nomar's line drive stroke on a ball at his ankles.

We are ridiculously spoiled, and it's nice.

The development organisation isn't THAT superior to the Yankees' and Theo is only marginally if at all brighter than Cashman. It's mostly luck. Pedroia, Ellsbury, Lowrie have all turned out apparently good major league players and Papelbon, Lester, Buchholz are all top quality major league pitchers, apparently, as may be Masterson. Even Hansen turned out not to be a complete stiff, and apparently Bard isn't either. The existence of lots of promising players is good development; their current success rate (if it continues, fingers crossed) is a fluke.

The development organisation isn't THAT superior to the Yankees' and Theo is only marginally if at all brighter than Cashman. It's mostly luck.

Player development is one of the great black boxes of baseball analysis. The factors that go into it are so varied, and the range of people so broad, that it doesn't really make much sense to talk about which organization is "superior" except in extreme situations. (It's more egregious to discuss the "brightness" of GMs, but I'll let that go.)

The interesting questions are the specific ones, how did particular skills get taught to particular players, which players were drafted for which reasons, what sorts of pitches were refined most effectively at which levels, how was workload managed, how about workouts? These can't really be usefully merged into a single measure of "player development quality" because the questions are so qualitatively different and the sample is tiny and the draft is a wildly confounding factor.

I hope we get some interesting work on how different player development regimes work and have worked, but I think we need to stop asking bad questions like who was superior and who was lucky if we want to get anywhere productive.

He hangs around people who would hand their children over to a prostitution ring in return for a chance to serve as human toilet paper at Chien-Ming Wang's house. And I'm pretty sure that's milder imagery than Wok would've given us.

Yeah, those people should have their children taken away... by an Earthquake.

Wakefield, who when he's on is a LOT of fun to watch.

didn't you get the memo? He's a coward.

It's not good luck, it's superior development organization

I think the development people should get some credit, but it's not really "luck" when we had all those draft picks in 05 and 06 (and still wasted a bunch of them). We just had more chances to score than other teams, because we had all those high draft picks those years.

I hope we get some interesting work on how different player development regimes work and have worked, but I think we need to stop asking bad questions like who was superior and who was lucky if we want to get anywhere productive.

Unfortunately, espcially when it comes to drafting players who are 18, 19 (and younger if we're talking about guys signed in the Caribbean) I don't know how much you'll ever be able to stop talking about luck. Seems like two teams with identical "smarts" (however you want to define that) and draft/signing plans could pick 50 players and while one might emerge with 1 or 2 useful guys, the other could have 10 useful guys and 2 superstars.

There's a lot that goes into this (as you pointed out) but there's a huge component that some teams pick the guys whose arms explode (or who eat their way out of the league, or can't hit a Double-A curvebal or...) and others don't.

Edit: To add, that's not a knock on the Red Sox at all. They are (obviously) a really well-run organization that has done a great job with their drafting and minor-league system. My comments are general in nature.

player development analysis caution: VERY small sample size alert!

Goals of player development might be summarized as

1. Develop 2 quality players a year.
........... this would yield 14 players over 7 years; enough to fill a lineup and key parts of a pitching staff if everyone lasted about 7 years

2. Develop a star player every 3 years.
........... If star players have 12-year shelf lives, that means the team would have 4 stars at any time, which is good.

Look at #2: If you analyze an organization over 9 years (a loonnng time for a GM!), they should hope to have developed 3 stars. What if they only have 2? Bad system? The odds of getting 2 versus 3 or 4 stars out of 100-ish drafted players just from random luck is HUGE. Run the stat tests, binomial or Posisson, blah blah blah; you can easily get 1 or 5 when "3" is the expected answer.

TomH - well put. And, of course, in three years every organization has large amounts of turnover in coaches and instructional practices and minor league franchise contracts, if not top-down overhauls. It's just not measurable at the macro level.

RB - my point wasn't that our analysis should ignore random variation. Every player, every coach, every instructional model is different. The system is irreducibly complex, and no one will ever be able to explain it without reference to many sorts of variation. But if we're stuck talking about "they were good" or "they were lucky", we're never going to get to the interesting questions at a more specific level.

Lester did get discounted bigtime this offseason during the Santana negotiations. I'm so happy for him.

Lester did get discounted bigtime this offseason during the Santana negotiations. I'm so happy for him.

I thougth he had rebounded pretty nicely with the shiny new ring and hot girlfriend, but that's just me.

Lester did get discounted bigtime this offseason during the Santana negotiations. I'm so happy for him.

In fairness, a big part of that was the Sox own (unintentional) doing by their willingness to put him--but not Buchholz--in a possible Santana trade.

MCoA: Fair enough, I think we're probably talking around each other and pretty much agree on things.

I wasn't able to watch the game, but what do others think of the pitch selection?

According to Inside Edge, Lester threw 84% fastballs, threw 16 curves, and threw 4 changeups, all to RH.

It seems to me to be an extreme mix and not something that suggests future success in MLB.

Lester did get discounted bigtime this offseason during the Santana negotiations. I'm so happy for him.

I think the opposite was true. I realize that Buchholz was considered off-limits, but that was warranted considering their track record. Also, all lot of Boston media would use "Buchholz and Lester" as if the two pitchers were equivalent in terms of potential. The media seemed to fixate on Lester's wins in 2006, disregarding the walks and ERA.

Apparently Tavarez accepted the assignment to Pawtucket until a trade can be worked out.

It seems to me to be an extreme mix and not something that suggests future success in MLB.

Don't forget that this includes 4-seamers, cutters, and possibly some 2-seamers, so it's not all just one pitch.

The pitch breakdown doesn't differentiate between 4-seam fastballs and cutters, which seems like a fairly big difference since he uses each pitch with a distinct purpose and in different circumstances. He also mixed in some 2-seamers last night early in the game to get some groundballs. When you account for all those variations of fastballs, the selection isn't so extreme.

It seems to me to be an extreme mix and not something that suggests future success in MLB.

Schilling threw 90% fastballs his whole career, almost. He would mix two-seamers and 4-seamers but that's about ti. he never developed a decent change-up or breaking ball. His splitter was good but he didn't start throwing it until his mid-thirties.

According to Inside Edge, Lester threw 84% fastballs, threw 16 curves, and threw 4 changeups, all to RH.

Lester's cut fastball is very nearly a slider in its movement, if not its release - if he called it a slider, very few people would complain. Not differentiating between his four-seamer and his cutter creates a false view of Lester's pitching.

So you're saying he should call it a slutter then, MCoA?

Apparently Tavarez accepted the assignment to Pawtucket until a trade can be worked out.

That seems pretty cool of him. The Red Sox probably wouldn't have sent him down if he hadn't agreed to go, but he could have made things a lot more difficult with all the recent roster shuffling. I daresay that's a pretty classy, team-oriented move.

For all the rep Tavarez has as a nutcase, he's been great the the Sox. He really has.

From BIS per Bill James Online this year Lester has thrown


Long term wise, wouldn't throwing more fastball and fewer breaking balls GENERALLY be healthier? I think that is the common wisdom.

It seems to me to be an extreme mix and not something that suggests future success in MLB.

This is the "Try To Enjoy This" thread. I don't think you're trying hard enough.

I was looking at THT's fielding stats, and Ellsbury still has a 1.000 RZR in both CF and RF for the year, although he's missed two in zone balls in LF (not sure if they're a fluke of Fenway or genuine balls he should have caught, but I suspect it's a Fenway effect). Drew also has a very good RZR, as of course does Crisp. Manny is also solidly in the average range in RZR, supporting my belief that he's looked better in the field so far, although obviously sample size issues abound with fielding stats 1/4 of the way through the season.

Off topic, but what do we make of Matsuzaka? His control has been terrible - yet he's not allowing hits or homeruns. Is he pitching to avoid contact? On the one hand, his ERA has to rise, but they've won every game he's pitched, and his ERA *is* under 2.5, so how upset/worried can you really get? WTF?

Off topic, but what do we make of Matsuzaka? His control has been terrible - yet he's not allowing hits or homeruns. Is he pitching to avoid contact? On the one hand, his ERA has to rise, but they've won every game he's pitched, and his ERA *is* under 2.5, so how upset/worried can you really get? WTF?

We can get very worried, as his ERA is probably nothing more than fluke. If he continues to pitch like this, it will end up north of 4.5, even considering the lucky start.

On the one hand, his ERA has to rise, but they've won every game he's pitched, and his ERA *is* under 2.5, so how upset/worried can you really get?

Try to enjoy this.

Is he pitching to avoid contact?

Yes.

Try to enjoy this.

vi is the winner. The rest of you, thanks for playing.

I can't enjoy watching a guy go to 3-ball counts on every batter, and walk a guy per inning. Sorry.

I can't enjoy watching a guy go to 3-ball counts on every batter, and walk a guy per inning. Sorry.

Then take it to a different thread.

I have to say, I'm enjoying this while it lasts. Seeing the Red Sox home-grown guys playing well, Lester pitching a no-hitter, Masterson looking great, Colon possibly being an asset - these are good times. The Red Sox depth right now is ridiculous.

I am definitely enjoying this.

You know what would also be enjoyable? Winning some road games. (Not all of them, just enough of them to keep things respectable.)

would you be happier if they began plaing .550 on the road and .550 at home, instead of .420 and .800? Small sample, and really, some won't be happy unless the Yankees are 20 games out of the wild card on July 4th with Jeter's head on a platter.

OK, I'm partially selfish and live (for now) in Baltimore. I'd really just prefer the Sox not get swept by the Orioles again. I don't expect domination in Oakland/Seattle, although both of those teams have hit the skids some recently.

I don't need Jeter's head on a platter; I'm happy with the occassional New York Post article calling him and A-Rod out for poor leadership or whatever. As much fun as the "Yankees are washed up" threads can be to read, I take them with a grain of salt.

Here here vi (#46), wounded knee (#51). Winning streaks, talented young players, and exotic foreign imports are fun.

I can't say I'm really thrilled about watching Matsuzaka take everyone to 3 ball counts, but the fact is he is extremely effective, has a rubber arm's rubber arm, and he seems deadly serious about winning the cy young this year.

Also can we just rename the NL MVP award "The Best Philly Infielder With No Shot to Lead His Team to a Championship Certificate of Accomplishment"? Anyone?

Dice-K's FIP is only 4.18, so while he's been really lucky, and walking a ton of people, he's still been solid and enjoyable (granted, I'm in New York and not seeing as many games as I used to). Also, I'm incredibly happy that the Red Sox have what appears to be one of the best outfield defenses in the league, which is helping our fly ball guys like Dice-K a lot.

You know what would also be enjoyable? Winning some road games. (Not all of them, just enough of them to keep things respectable.)

You should watch the Celtics more.

Matsuzaka's the opposite of what he was last year. Overall, his FIP and actual ERA are probably close.

I have to agree with Dan that he's no fun to watch, which is the opposite of what I expected when they signed him.

He was fun to watch early last year.

TImlin now has 6 decisions (3-3) in just 19 appearances from the bullpen.

You should watch the Celtics more.

Indeed!!! And you'll get the chance!!

has a rubber arm's rubber arm

What's his shoulder made of?

What's his shoulder made of?

Bakelite.

Did anyone else notice that Tavarez is now pitching for the Brewers? I sure didn't until just now. Apparently he didn't accept that minor league assignment.

It was mentioned around here somewhere.