BBTF's Sox Therapy Discussion :: Underperforming--A Good Sign?

Sox Therapy
— Where Thinking Red Sox Fans Obsess about the Sox

Thursday, May 10, 2007

Underperforming--A Good Sign?

Just a quickie about the Red Sox offense. Looking through the ever-evolving and always wonderful Baseball Reference today, I noticed that the Bostonians’ recent offensive outburst had pushed their team OBP to .362 (2nd in the AL) and their SLG to .442 (1st) . These combined for an OPS of .804, tops in the league, and an OPS+ of 117 (2nd). Still, the Red Sox were only 4th in runs scored at 5.25/g.

So even though this team has been hitting the ball with the best of them, they have not been doing as good of a job as others of turning those hits into runs. Their GIDP tendencies probably contribute to this a wee bit, but I suspect most of the problem is that they have not bunched their hits well. Consequently, I expect that their runs will catch up with their hitting as the season goes on.

Other reasons for optimism: Prospectus’s postseason odds simulation dealie says the Red Sox should win 100 games, and have a 90 percent chance of reaching the postseason. Pecota Adjusted numbers say 104 wins and a 95 percent chance. (ELO says 94.5 wins and the and only 69 percent. I don’t know what this system is, so I’ve ignored it. Also, it dropped the Red Sox 13 percent today after they won yesterday. ???)

Note: All of these calculations came before the Red Sox crushed Halladay and the Yankees got smoked today.

Darren Posted: May 10, 2007 at 10:08 PM | 35 comment(s)
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1. Rough Carrigan Posted: May 10, 2007 at 11:10 PM (#2360543)

Since when do Jeff Lynn and ELO make baseball predictions?
I know. I know. Don't bring you down.

2. Chip Posted: May 10, 2007 at 11:19 PM (#2360549)

Groooosss!

3. The Josecruz Blues (GGC) Posted: May 10, 2007 at 11:21 PM (#2360550)

Elo was some Hungarian guy that developed a system to rate chessplayers.

4. John DiFool2 Posted: May 10, 2007 at 11:58 PM (#2360569)

I'm familiar with ELO (do you believe they once used it to rate virtual fighter pilots in the original Air Warrior?), and it blows.

Since it is the province of fools to state truths noone else will speak, I'll repeat what I said yesterday: this team is scary good. What that means for the rest of the season I'll leave to fate and karma.

5. PJ Martinez Posted: May 11, 2007 at 12:23 AM (#2360585)

"Consequently, I expect that their runs will catch up with their hitting as the season goes on."

The obvious counter-point would be that their hitting may cool off, so the run-scoring will stay even or possibly go down.

Except that it's hard to understand why, barring injury (knock on wood), the hitting would "cool off." Mannny's still coming around, Drew and Lugo are slumping, Coco's still hitting even less than a pessimist would predict... Lowell will come down some, and probably Youkilis, and the bench. And maybe Varitek, too (though maybe not).

They just don't seem to be hitting over their heads. Pitching... well, that may be another story.

6. The Piehole of David Wells Posted: May 11, 2007 at 02:36 AM (#2360627)

According to ESPN's RPI, the Sox strength of schedule (SOS) hasn't been that good (actually 26th worst out of 30 teams). It's hard to believe that when we're talking about the MFY, Toronto, Oakland, Minnesota, and the OC Angels. Still, most of those teams have .500 records at this point in the season. What are the odds that the Sox SOS will improve as those teams improve over the course of the season?

7. The Piehole of David Wells Posted: May 11, 2007 at 02:37 AM (#2360629)

That last sentence should have said, What are the odds the Sox will overperform (or underperform) as their SOS improves (as the teams they're playing improve upon their early season woes). Sorry for the confusion.

8. JoelW Iz in Ur Baseball Posted: May 11, 2007 at 04:00 AM (#2360640)

I still think the most fascinating story is Josh Beckett. Not because he's 7-0. Not because his ERA is 2.5, or that he's allowed 2 HRs in 46 innings, but because he's slowly developed a little Roy Halladay. Fewer P/IP. Higher GB/FB.

Also, FWIW, the Prospectus strength of schedule has the Sox schedule at at least average.

9. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: May 11, 2007 at 07:04 AM (#2360653)

1) SOOOO many GIDP's in the middle of the order
2) I fully expect the mediots to start getting on the Lugo and Veronica, and comparing them with OMFG LOOK AT A-GON AND TROT!!! THEY'RE DOING SO GOOD FOR CHEAP!!! and not realize it's frakking May.

10. villageidiom Posted: May 11, 2007 at 07:30 AM (#2360654)

What are the odds that the Sox SOS will improve as those teams improve over the course of the season?

Well, there are only five other teams in the AL that have winning records, and Boston has played 5 of their 33 games against those teams. They haven't faced Detroit, Cleveland, or Chicago yet at all. I don't see how their SOS doesn't improve.

11. John DiFool2 Posted: May 11, 2007 at 10:01 AM (#2360712)

According to ESPN's RPI, the Sox strength of schedule (SOS) hasn't been that good (actually 26th worst out of 30 teams).

Well that is at least due in part to the Sox kicking their collective butts: I'm sure the Washington Nationals have had a really "tough" SOS, because their awful play has made their opponents look better than they are.

12. John DiFool2 Posted: May 11, 2007 at 10:01 AM (#2360714)

13. John DiFool2 Posted: May 11, 2007 at 10:03 AM (#2360715)

[rrr hit Submit button by mistake. I will not submit!]

14. tjm1 Posted: May 11, 2007 at 12:45 PM (#2360860)

2) I fully expect the mediots to start getting on the Lugo and Veronica, and comparing them with OMFG LOOK AT A-GON AND TROT!!! THEY'RE DOING SO GOOD FOR CHEAP!!! and not realize it's frakking May.

I think, or at least have some cause for hope, that the very good first couple weeks they each had has forestalled a lot of that.

15. PJ Martinez Posted: May 11, 2007 at 12:50 PM (#2360869)

I think it's that the team is winning. So I hope they turn it around before the Sox hit a bumpy stretch-- that way the mediots will probably look elsewhere.

16. plim Posted: May 11, 2007 at 01:24 PM (#2360917)

Well, part of it is because our pitching is (dare I say) overachieveing.

We sport the lowest R/G and highest ERA+ in the majors. Plus, despite us having played 20 games on the road (to only 13 at home), we have an incredible 2.59 era on the road including a .600 ops allowed, and an AL-leading 2.55 r/g on the road (oakland is 2nd at nearly a run higher: 3.50, ny mets lead the majors at 2.53).

Of course, leading the charge with his 1.79/1.103/244 line is...Tim Wakefield?!

so here's the question...as our offense "picks it up" and our pitching regresses to more "normal" levels...which will outpace the other?

right now *both* pitching and hitting are improving! =)

17. plim Posted: May 11, 2007 at 01:28 PM (#2360928)

oh yeah...one more thing. at our current pace, we're looking at 864 runs scored versus a mind-boggling 540 runs allowed. that would tie the '95 Braves for the least runs allowed in recent times...

gotta love early season stats =)

18. PJ Martinez Posted: May 11, 2007 at 01:52 PM (#2360968)

Yeah, there's no way the Sox pitchers can be quite _this_ good forever. They can be very good, however. There's a good thread over at SoSH about how the starters look through the lenses of DIPS and ERC. The thread was started on April 28, with the thread-starter nothing that these contextual stats actually back up, more or less, what the starters have done so far. He contrasted their numbers in this regard with some overperforming guys, like Ramon Ortiz and Andy Pettite.

He followed up today by looking at how the pitchers he considered have fared since that initial post. Here's what he found:

"The non-Sox pitchers' ERA has gone up by precisely 1.50, 0r 64.9%. The Big Four's ERA has fallen by 0.05, or 1.6%. Perhaps this shouldn't be surprising, since this is precisely what DIPS theory is designed to predict. But I'm impressed that it has been so accurate thus far."

Here's the thread: http://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?showtopic=18210

19. PJ Martinez Posted: May 11, 2007 at 01:53 PM (#2360970)

"noting," not "nothing"

20. villageidiom Posted: May 11, 2007 at 03:01 PM (#2361031)

Other than Boston (3rd in RS/G), the top AL offenses are:

5.8 NYY
5.4 DET
5.3 CLE
4.8 SEA
4.8 TEX
4.6 TOR

Though Boston hasn't played two of those teams, they've played 20 of 33 games against those teams. Granted, they happen to have just faced Toronto during their offensive slide, but they also faced Toronto back when they were the 2nd best offense in the AL. IOW, Boston's pitching is the best so far, and they've ostensibly done it against the best.

21. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: May 12, 2007 at 08:24 AM (#2361533)

Underperforming: incredibly annoying in real time.

Sox outhit the O's by a small margin. Both teams had a bunch of line drives that didn't get in, until Wily Mo took pity on the opponents and started giving them hits on well-struck balls to right.

22. kevin Posted: May 12, 2007 at 08:35 AM (#2361541)

It was the defense that won/lost the game. Between Youks horrible throw in the first and the two Wily Mo matador jobs in right, combined with Markakis taking a homer away from Tek on a ball that was harder to catch than the one Wily Mo let drop on the warning track, that was the game.

23. Darren Posted: May 12, 2007 at 08:55 AM (#2361547)

They had the same number of hits but the Red Sox had about 240 walks. They, as usual, didn't bunch them well. They lost 2 runs in the early innings simply by hitting singles directly at the LF, not allowing a runner from 2nd to score. Wily Mo's defense didn't help and neither did the lasers right at people.

Youks is hitting like a mother right now. Reminds me of early last year. Hopefully, it was the nagging injuries that slowed him last year and this year he'll be able to remain Wade Boggs without morphing back into Dave Magadan.

24. kevin Posted: May 12, 2007 at 09:06 AM (#2361552)

They, as usual, didn't bunch them well.

Sure they did. They left the bases loaded 3 times. They just couldn't finish the job.

25. Darren Posted: May 12, 2007 at 09:56 AM (#2361579)

So 'bunching them well' means getting runners on base but not scoring them?

26. Darren Posted: May 12, 2007 at 09:57 AM (#2361580)

You could also say they didn't have them in the right order. If Youks' double comes after the many walks instead of in the middle of them, they score a bunch more.

27. Darren Posted: May 12, 2007 at 09:57 AM (#2361581)

This site is absolutely smokin' fast today. Wow. Hope this means it's been upgraded.

28. Jim Furtado Posted: May 12, 2007 at 10:03 AM (#2361583)

I believe I've finally found the code that has been grinding posting times.

29. Darren Posted: May 12, 2007 at 10:06 AM (#2361585)

Jim,

This is freaking awesome. This was THE thing I was going to suggest to you as the best way to improve this site. I think that users who have been here for a while probably were willing to put up with the the drag, but I doubt any new user would stick around and deal with it. Great work!

30. philly Posted: May 12, 2007 at 10:31 AM (#2361601)

Yeas, a huge improvement. Honestly it had gotten to the point that as soon as I hit reply I would open a new window and go surfing someplace else because it would take so long for the replay to get posted.

It's pleasantly shocking that the post actually gets posted before you decide to move on.

31. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: May 12, 2007 at 10:39 AM (#2361605)

It's pleasantly shocking that the post actually gets posted before you decide to move

Concur. It's fast from Asia too!

32. Chip Posted: May 15, 2007 at 12:12 AM (#2364546)

So the underperforming team that keeps leaving tons of LOB, with cleanup and 5th place hitters who are well off their career production, is now leading MLB in runs scored.

33. bibigon Posted: May 15, 2007 at 12:19 AM (#2364558)

So the underperforming team that keeps leaving tons of LOB, with cleanup and 5th place hitters who are well off their career production, is now leading MLB in runs scored.

Also have allowed the fewest runs in baseball.

34. Templeusox has reached his genetic threshold Posted: May 15, 2007 at 01:00 AM (#2364587)

Hank Conger?

He isn't eligible to be traded yet though.

35. Templeusox has reached his genetic threshold Posted: May 15, 2007 at 01:00 AM (#2364589)

Uhhh...wrong thread.

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Underperforming--A Good Sign?

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