Jacoby Ellsbury has been promoted to Pawtucket.

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Not good for Ochoa or Robinson. Really though. Neither of those guys has a future anyway. What posible scenario could occur to cause a call-up for either of them? They both have 4 outfielders in front of them.

Maybe we can send Ochoa or Robinson to the A's after they have another OF injury or two.

They must really like what Ellsbury is doing. The team usually waits for a half season before promoting hitters.

Ellsbury 23
Crisp 27
Moss 23
Pedroia 23
Papelbon 26
Beckett 26
Daisuke 26
Lester 23
Hansen 23
Buchholz 22
Bowden 20
Pena 25

Plus, Kottaras, Anderson, Pauley.

I like the youth in this system. A few possible stars but depth in the OF and a lot of depth at pitching.
And they are going to need it with two 40+ starting pitchers and 6 of the starting lineup over 31 y.o.

Let's not forget Manny Delcarmen at 25yo. His ERA and OBA aren't pretty, but he doesn't walk manny batters, his k/9 is 13.5 and he really seems to have a talent for preventing home runs. He threw a couple of wild pitches in his last outing, which is discouraging, but I think he'll be a good set-up option as early as this season; maybe even heir to Timlin's primary set-up role. I like him a lot more than Hansen, anyway.

Moss is probably better than Pena right now. I don't think Moss is a great hitter or anything but he should be a lot better on defense. I sorta remember Moss used to be considered an OF tweener, which would suggest that he's fine defensively in a corner.

Next year's outfield situation will be interesting. I'm kinda rooting for the insane-o defensive outfield they could have if they traded Manny and moved Coco to LF

Obviously Ellsbury was tearing up AA so far, but is there any other reason to move him up this early in the season? Get him up to the next level while his confidence is high, and hope that carries over or something? It seems unlikely that he'll come to Boston before September.

If Crisp gets hurt, Ellsbury's sure to get the call. And Crisp gets hurt a lot. They may get a chance to give him a look over and if he succeeds right off the bat, they can move Crisp at the trading deadline to fill a hole somewhere else.

Finally, the Red Sox have some depth in the outfield.

Let's not forget Manny Delcarmen at 25yo. His ERA and OBA aren't pretty, but he doesn't walk manny batters, his k/9 is 13.5 and he really seems to have a talent for preventing home runs.

Delcarmen has had trouble with walks since his TJ surgery. Check out his 2005 line.

If Crisp gets hurt, they call up Murphy or Moss to be 4th OF, and Pena plays full time.


And Moss is not better than Pena, IMHO, and it's not particularly close. Moss was projected at .261 .323 .397 coming into 07. His performance thus far probably bumps that up just a hair. Pena, meanwhile, was projected for .276 .331 .483, despite the fact that he has only had sporadic playing time over the past couple years. His defense last year, according to SG's Dial Spreadsheet was -16 in LF (average?), -1 in CF, -11 in RF, with most of that time coming in RF. He was just brutal in 05 but well above average in 04. What's that make him overall? Probably projects in the -5 to -15 range. That's a good player. Until Moss puts up these numbers for more than a month in a row, he's not in that class.

This would also be a good place for me to mention how I was probably wrong about Delcarmen being sent down. He seems like he's struggling a bit, so maybe it will do him good to get straightened out down there.

Obviously Ellsbury was tearing up AA so far, but is there any other reason to move him up this early in the season?

Well Ellsbury was involved in a shouting match with Sea Dogs head coach Arnie Beyeler which ended with Ellsbury throwing the clubhouse fun at Beyeler, forcing him to get 16 stitches with a severe forehead laceration.




I'm kidding. He was just tearing it up.

Your story fell apart when Ellsbury started throwing fun at people.

Temple,

Why do you think they moved up Jay Johnson instead of Bubba Bell? Both are 24 with similar track records and Bell has killed the ball at home and on the road this year.

Or even Aaron Bates for that matter. They seem to need a 1B at AA.

Why did I write fun? I don't know. Why didn't I see it until you pointed it out? I don't know.

Honestly, I really don't know why Bubba was kept in high-A with Johnson going to double-A. Bell seemed like the natural choice. It's a good question.

Aaron Bates will be up sometime this season, bank on that. That kid can hit; I don't care where he plays.

I'm not familiar with the Dial defensive numbers. Are they any good? I was under the impression that the UZR/Pinto numbers had Pena in the -20 range.

Lars is down to .276/.349/.418. If his BABIP was .330 his OPS would be in the 600s

Dial's method is like UZR-lite. Just takes players, measures their zone rating against average, and then calculates run values based on balls hit to their zones. I'm not sure what UZR and Pinto have for Pena.

Delcarmen has had trouble with walks since his TJ surgery. Check out his 2005 line.

I'd give more weight to his '06 MLB performance and current performance in AAA this year than what he did 2 years ago. Like Darren, I thought it was a mistake to send him down; but, also like Darren, I think he needs to work out a few things and prove himself in Pawtucket before he's given a spot in the ML bullpen. That said: four walks, twenty strikeouts and one homer (given up at McCoy, I believe) in 13 innings doesn't happen out of luck. 18 hits in as many innings might. He'll be fine. He'll help the big club before the year is out.

What's up with David Murphy?

Also, Delcarmen pitched himself off the team in Spring training. I don't mind him going back to AAA to get his shiiitttteee together.

What's up with him? He's David Murphy, fringe prospect, just like he's always been.

HE was 4-6 last night, though, and has a great OBP this year.

Pawtucket scores 5 in the 9th to take a 14-6 lead, only to see Hansen + Declarmen implode and give 9! runs in the bottom half. Hansen recorded 0 outs and allowed 7 runs, 4 earned. Yikes.

Ouch.

Buchholz- 5 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 8/0 K/BB, HRA
Bowden- 6 IP, 6 H, 0 ER, 4/0 K/BB

HRA? HRA? WTF! This is complete crap! I will not stand for this happening! What kind of organizational savior is this guy?

Temple,

What's up with Ellsbury? He missed some games in AA right before his promotion, then he didn't play today (and one other day?).

He was sick earlier last week which caused him to miss the double-A games and he played in both games of the double-header yesterday. There's nothing I know of that is cause for concern.

Bowden- 6 IP, 6 H, 0 ER, 4/0 K/BB

In Lancaster. I'm a fan.

That Bowden game requires a bit more comment - here's the box score. Bowden held the Oaks scoreless for six innings in Lancaster. The bullpen came in and allowed 10 runs in three innings after he left.

I've said this before - Bowden is going to get knocked around in a game or two down there, it's just inevitable. Brandon Webb pitched in Lancaster, and only barely held his ERA under 4. A bad game or two on the moon should not be any cause for concern, when it happens.

Ellsbury had two stolen bases and a CS last night.
Two questions: Do you think this is something the organization is asking him to do? They seem to control how teams and players play, so I couldn't seem him running this much without blessing from above.

How well does basestealing ability translate from minors to majors? I would guess there is a larger discount in stealing success than most other offensive categories.

This is a big generalization with little behind it, but it seems like mL success rate is pretty irrelevant. The quick guys seem to steal a lot at a pretty lousy rate while figuring things out. Beltran, who's had a great success rate in the majors, had pretty pedestrian rates in the minors.

Some movement among the pitchers: "To make room for Lopez, the Sox optioned righthanded pitcher Devern Hansack to the PawSox, where Francona said he was expected to make a start in Saturday night's 6:05 game against visiting Toledo. 'We were just a little concerned because of the way our staff has thrown the ball, there weren't the innings that could've been there,' Francona said of Hansack. 'And we might've done him more harm than good by having him sit around... So if he goes and starts, he can do either when he's recalled. If he just sits, then he can only do one thing and that's not good."

The question isn't if Buchholz will be better than Lester or Papelbon. It's how much better he will be.

Temple,

Pay attention, I've put up a Buccholz/Bowden thread!

I would love for you to add your thoughts on a) how soon Buc will be our 5th starter, b) how soon Bowden will be in AA, c) how these two project as major leaguers.

I'm inclined to agree with temple here. Neither Lester nor Papelbon had displayed this type of total dominance in the upper levels.

We must now ask ourselves where on the list of premier prospects Buchholz resides. I think he's stepped up into top 5 territory.

Dammit you kids, get out of this thread. Shoo. Get over to the B/B thread. Go on now. I know who your parents are.