BBTF's Sox Therapy Discussion :: Weekly Minor League Thread: Ellsbury’s triumphant return

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Wednesday, May 24, 2006

Weekly Minor League Thread: Ellsbury’s triumphant return

With the big club making me want to throw up, I figure it’s a good time to focus on any good news I can find about the minors. Here’s a little from each level.

Pawtucket:
--Pedroia had a couple of nice games before going 0-3 today. This must mean that his spring training is over (unless he continues to suck, in which case it’s not.)
--We have a number of interesting relievers on this team: Breslow, Van Buren, and Delcarmen, and Holtz have all put up some nice numbers. Ginter got whacked tonight but still could be decent too.

Portland:
--David Murphy is hitting better in AA than Hanley did last year. So it stands to reason…

Wilmington:
--Ellsbury has come back strong from his injury. He’s now hitting about .320/.410/.480 with 11 steals and 1 cs. He has swiped three since coming back. His K/BB is a respectable 13/8. Put him back on the fast track.
--Kyle Jackson is K’ing lots of guys, not giving up hits or HR, and has a few too many walks.
--Corsaletti’s numbers are decent enough that he could still have a very nice year.

Greenville:
--It’s easy to get disappointed with Bowden’s 4.86 ERA. But let’s remember, he’s just 19 and has an awesome 50/8 K/BB ratio in A ball. His hits and HRs aren’t good, but he’s more than holding his own overall, which is good for someone his age.
--Kevin Guyette’s got a 41/13 K/BB ratio in 35 IP. He’s also allowed only 1 HR, but almost a hit per inning.
--2005 9th rounder Mark Wagner is hitting .351 with some pop.
--Natale. Natale, Natale, Natale.

Well, feel free to add some bad news to this thread if it makes you happy.

Darren Posted: May 24, 2006 at 10:51 PM | 28 comment(s)
Related News: Boston

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1. philly Posted: May 25, 2006 at 12:22 AM (#2036268)

--David Murphy is hitting better in AA than Hanley did last year. So it stands to reason…

Last year I remember digging up some pretty good 21 yr old toolsy SS types that struggled in AA the way Hanley did last year. I'm pleasantly bemused that Hanley is on his way to putting himself on that same list.

I saw Kyle Jackson pitch an inning or two. I thought he had pretty good stuff. Looked like a 90+ fastball and he was getting his Ks on a good breaking ball. I guess the command comes and goes, but he's not too bad.

2. Darren Posted: May 25, 2006 at 06:22 AM (#2036353)

I'd really be okay with Hanley turning into a pretty good SS. It's his going from lousy in AA to superstar in the majors in one year that hurts.

3. Toby Posted: May 25, 2006 at 09:14 AM (#2036393)

It's not the whole big league club that makes me want to throw up, just Matt Clement.

4. tfbg9 Posted: May 25, 2006 at 11:05 AM (#2036472)

Bring up Lester, DL Clement-improve your 4th starter era by a run, give the kid valuable on-the-job training in The Bigs.

/frustrated rant

5. robinred Posted: May 25, 2006 at 02:53 PM (#2036901)

With the big club making me want to throw up,

Boston 26 18
New York 26 19 .5

Yeah, that is pretty sickening.

6. AROM Posted: May 25, 2006 at 03:00 PM (#2036926)

With the big club making me want to throw up,

Boston 26 18
New York 26 19 .5

Yeah, that is pretty sickening.

If that club makes you throw up, you have a really, really weak stomach. Try being an Angels fan.

7. ellsbury my heart at wounded knee Posted: May 25, 2006 at 03:58 PM (#2037083)

Whoops, I didn't see this new minor league thread. Cross-posting from the older thread (sorry!):

"Maybe I'm just not used to the difference in the talent level between AAA and MLB, but last night's PawSox game was ugly. Ginter was terrible, and the PawSox offense and defense was generally unimpressive.

Pedroia played SS and made a nice play on a ball hit up the middle, but he didn't really have the arm to make a play on a ball hit to the hole between him and the 3B. The Louisville pitchers didn't give Pedroia much to hit, and he seemed to work the count pretty well and hit the ball ok, though not for any hits. It was surprising how small how looked out there. I mean, I know how small he was going in, but seeing him next to other players really made him look like a kid. Choi looked kind of lackadasical at 1B, throwing away a double play ball that was hit to him, although he later knocked down a liner that would have gone for extra bases.

Kind of a lousy game as the PawSox lost 7-1. The beer was more expensive than I remembered (around $4.50), but they did have a good selection."

8. JB H Posted: May 25, 2006 at 06:18 PM (#2037276)

Peter Gammons apparently said today that Ellsbury is the best defensive outfielder in baseball or something crazy. I'm starting to get excited about him

9. Golfing Great Mitch Cumstein Posted: May 25, 2006 at 06:46 PM (#2037305)

I heard the Gammons quote. It was part of the "Red Sox are looking for more defense."

This topic may have been covered, but why did the Sox repeat Murphy and Moss and why is Natale in Low-A? It doesn't make sense for marginal college players like Murphy and Natale. Shouldn't the Sox challenge them to see if they have the talent to succeed?

10. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: May 26, 2006 at 09:17 AM (#2037977)

Good summary, Darren. thanks

Peter Gammons apparently said today that Ellsbury is the best defensive outfielder in baseball or something crazy. I'm starting to get excited about him

"already as good as Aaron Rowand" was the quote, I think. I am feeling rather good about Ellsbury, even if that is jut Gammo being Gammo.

This topic may have been covered, but why did the Sox repeat Murphy and Moss and why is Natale in Low-A? It doesn't make sense for marginal college players like Murphy and Natale. Shouldn't the Sox challenge them to see if they have the talent to succeed?

Not if they're going to fail. Murphy and Moss - especially Moss - have yet to show that they can play ball in high minors. Pushing them another level could exacerbate the problem, plus you don't like to reward players when they haven't earned it. For the most part, I just give the Sox the benefit of the doubt with promotions - those decisions are based on a ton of information we don't know. I prefer to use promotions as data to evaluate the player, rather than use data about the player to evaluate the promotion.

But then there's Natalie. Basically, the Red Sox are acting like they are convinced he's an organizational soldier. He's far too old for the Sally League, and he's DHing at least half the time. It appears unlikely he can play a position. On the other hand, he's really destroying the league - the Sox used John Otness in Greenville last year as an older guy to improve the offense, but Otness' OPS was about 60% of Natalie's. Don't really know what to say.

It’s easy to get disappointed with Bowden’s 4.86 ERA. But let’s remember, he’s just 19 and has an awesome 50/8 K/BB ratio in A ball. His hits and HRs aren’t good, but he’s more than holding his own overall, which is good for someone his age.

It's hard to know what to say about Bowden yet without any scouting data. As you note, the small sample of stats is all over the map. I really want to know if scouts think that he's getting the Ks with great stuff or something unsustainable, if they think he's hittable or not, if he's working on some secondary stuff that's messing him up, or what.

11. Templeusox has reached his genetic threshold Posted: May 26, 2006 at 10:37 AM (#2038047)

Natale is still in Greenville, because he projects as a 2nd basemen. However, his defense is somewhat raw, being that he never played a position consistently in college. So the Sox have paired him with Greenville coach Luis Alicea, a MLB 2nd basemen with 10+ years of service time, to help him work out his kinks and refine his actions. The Sox are aware of how dominant he has been. But they also believe that Greenville is the best place for him to develop as a complete player right now.

12. chris p Posted: May 26, 2006 at 10:47 AM (#2038057)

"already as good as Aaron Rowand" was the quote, I think. I am feeling rather good about Ellsbury, even if that is jut Gammo being Gammo.

shouldn't an outfielder's defense peak in their early 20s? i don't see why it's absurd to say a 21 year old is as good an outfielder as a 28 year old even if the 28 year old runs into fences.

13. Kyle S Posted: May 26, 2006 at 10:50 AM (#2038063)

As good as Rowand, huh? I'll take that with a grain of salt, thanks.

14. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: May 26, 2006 at 11:04 AM (#2038084)

Natale is still in Greenville, because he projects as a 2nd basemen. However, his defense is somewhat raw, being that he never played a position consistently in college. So the Sox have paired him with Greenville coach Luis Alicea, a MLB 2nd basemen with 10+ years of service time, to help him work out his kinks and refine his actions. The Sox are aware of how dominant he has been. But they also believe that Greenville is the best place for him to develop as a complete player right now.

Very interesting, TUS, thanks.

Do you know why he's DHing so much, then? Typically, if a guy needs to learn a position in the minors, he plays it everyday.

As good as Rowand, huh? I'll take that with a grain of salt, thanks.

Really? And here us crazy Sox fans were just assuming it was true!

15. chris p Posted: May 26, 2006 at 11:09 AM (#2038089)

As good as Rowand, huh? I'll take that with a grain of salt, thanks.

i wasn't trying to say ellsbury specifically is as good as rowand specifically. just that a guy who earned a reputation for being a good defender in his mid 20s is just going to get worse with age and an absurdly fast 21 year old is probably going to be a good center fielder and an absurdly fast 21 year old with good instincts is likely an excellent center fielder. i think it's safe to say that rowand is a much better hitter than ellsbury, though.

16. Josh Posted: May 26, 2006 at 11:29 AM (#2038117)

Natale is DH about 1/3 to 1/4 of the games now, down from 1/2 earlier in the year.

17. RB in NYC (Now with Christmas Spirit!) Posted: May 26, 2006 at 12:47 PM (#2038235)

So the Sox have paired him with Greenville coach Luis Alicea, a MLB 2nd basemen with 10+ years of service time

This is apropos of nothing, but I always enjoy discovering what guys like Luis Alicea are up to these days. I should scan Minor League coaching lists more closely, it's probably a treasure trove of "where are they now?"

18. Mike Emeigh Posted: May 26, 2006 at 01:20 PM (#2038290)

I should scan Minor League coaching lists more closely, it's probably a treasure trove of "where are they now?"

It can be, to be sure. For example:

Rich Gale, whose last year in the majors with with Boston in 1984, is Carolina's pitching coach.

Xavier Hernandez, who the Orioles once signed to a fairly lucrative contract only to discover that he was damaged goods - which along with Albert Belle is reportedly why Peter Angelos now shies away from FA signings - is the pitching coach for Montgomery.

Dave LaRoche is New Hampshire's pitching coach; wonder if he teaches any of the students the LaLob?

-- MWE

19. CFBF Has Neither Diabetes nor Cryabetes Posted: May 27, 2006 at 02:20 PM (#2039874)

Tim Bogar is managing the AA Akron Aeros.

20. Norcan Posted: May 27, 2006 at 04:36 PM (#2040108)

A scout, in one of those prospect comparisons pieces on baseball america, said Ellsbury was a plus defender in center field, so I don't think Gammons is just giving his own opinion on Ellsbury, I'm sure he's repeating what scouts are telling him. And anyway, it's not like Rowand is an impossible standard at center. If Gammons said Ellsbury would have pushed Willie Mays to Right field, then maybe that would be a tad hyperbolic. But to say he's as good as Rowand, maybe he's not but it doesn't strike me as an egregious exaggeration or pro-Red Sox prospect hyping. There are going to be center fielders like Rowand for years to come.

21. Darren Posted: May 27, 2006 at 11:41 PM (#2040679)

And anyway, it's not like Rowand is an impossible standard at center.

Not impossible, but I know that UZR thought he was pretty close to a class of his own.

22. Darren Posted: May 28, 2006 at 08:12 PM (#2041723)

Ellsbury 3/4 today with a HR

23. Templeusox has reached his genetic threshold Posted: May 29, 2006 at 01:22 AM (#2042009)

Some team is going to get a nice little catch when we trade him in July for a 3rd starter.

24. Spivey Posted: May 29, 2006 at 01:58 AM (#2042030)

Does Ellsbury project better than Juan Pierre at the plate?

25. Templeusox has reached his genetic threshold Posted: May 29, 2006 at 02:21 AM (#2042042)

Juan Pierre Peak or Juan Pierre Now?

Eh, it doesn't matter. Yes.

26. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: May 29, 2006 at 11:17 AM (#2042220)

All depends on what you mean by "project", doesn't it?

Ellsbury's upside is higher - he has a good chance to develop more extra-base power.

Ellsbury's 50th percentile projection overall is certainly not average MLB regular, though, so in that he does not project better than Juan Pierre.

27. Darren Posted: May 29, 2006 at 12:31 PM (#2042269)

Weekend Dish mentions David Murphy:

Red Sox outfielder David Murphy made a splash in his Triple-A debut for Pawtucket Friday night, going 2-for-4 with a homer. Murphy, a first-rounder out of Baylor in 2003, batted .273/.315/.436 in 172 at-bats at Double-A Portland this season

Pretty lousy numbers.

28. Josh Posted: May 29, 2006 at 05:52 PM (#2042629)

They were worse the first few weeks. In April he was at ~250/300/430 (and it was closer to 230/280/390 until the final 10 days or so). In May he has been closer to 350/450. Not good, but not (as) lousy.

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Weekly Minor League Thread: Ellsbury’s triumphant return

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