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Papelbon had a good start, but his second start was quite bad, and I think the Sox would generally like to see a couple very good ones in a row before calling him up.
They were saying on SoSH that Pap was hitting the mid-90s last night, as high as 97 on one pitch. He and Manny should get the call pretty soon, I think, if not right now. Another, say, two good weeks should do it.
"Freedom" Petagine MLE update: 275/395/505
He's definently good enough to be in the pen, but if he was called up he'd just be replacing Jeremi Gonzalez as the #4 righty and getting mostly meaningless innings. I don't think Papelbon is significantly better than Gonzalez right now anyway.
Unless the team's looking at Billy Wagner or something, there's not really anything they can do to the pen that will make much of a difference
because the red sox are the only team with minor leaguers worth talking about! BEST. FARM SYSTEM. EVER!
Come to think of it... I think there was talk this winter of some BTF specific minor league content from someone - Mike Emigh maybe? - but that didn't seem to happen.
And of course, chris p makes a great point. Sox do have the best farm system ever where every prospect is better than David Wright. So there's that too.
Even Matt Van Der Bosch, who, incidentally, is down to .245/.315/.391.
Ellsbury, though, now has 8 or so steals, with narry a caught stealing. That is nice.
On Pap, I'd like to see him called up after 2 or 3 more decent starts, but I'd love for him to take over Jermi's role. I don't want him in during the 7th to face one right handed (or left handed!) batter, now that Bradford is around. I'd prefer to see him work in unimportant innings as becomes acclimated. Given the Cla experience, this seems the preferred route.
Can't quite isolate Wright's first 80 ABs, but his first 120 were a very non-Corsalletti-like: 300/386/458
Tsk. Tsk.
Yucch.
He couldn't hit in the NPB, why do people think he can help the Red Sox? Hyzdu, on the other hand has shown that he is too good for AAA.
And 2 (should have been 3) Yankees!!!
Do you have the 2005 numbers? BA's database provider dumps all the old stats of players who are no longer on the roster.
This is Cano's 2004 MLE:
Player AB H 2B 3B HR BB K BA OBP SLGCano 481 128 24 4 9 43 65 .266 .301 .365
(I could also email it to you, if you'd like.)
Gimme a minute...
Player AB H 2B 3B HR BB K BA OBP SLGCano 515 131 23 11 8 35 83 .254 .301 .388
H 36
2B 8
3B 3
HR 4
BB 6
K 13
BA .333
OBP .368
SLG .574
There's a trick to get around that. Go to the minorleague baseball site and use the "Bookmark Player" feature. That bookmark brings up stats from every level.
NJ - Here's 2005:
Year AB H 2B 3B HR BB K BA OBP SLG 2005 109 33 7 3 3 5 16 .301 .332 .503Year AB H 2B 3B HR BB K BA OBP SLG2005 109 33 7 3 3 5 16 .301 .332 .503
Year AB H 2B 3B HR BB K BA OBP SLG
2005 109 33 7 3 3 5 16 .301 .332 .503
So, basically, the MLE is what he actually is doing at the major league level (except slugging a bit too high). GOGO MLE!
Year AB H 2B 3B HR BB K BA OBP SLG
2004 465 140 33 2 29 84 106 .301 .413 .568
2005 207 57 9 1 11 47 61 .275 .410 .488</pre>
He's mashing. He has 7 homers and is slugging .651 in 82 ABs.
Year AB H 2B 3B HR BB K BA OBP SLG2004 471 122 29 2 20 72 129 .260 .363 .461
2005 213 49 8 1 8 41 75 .232 .356 .387
Simple. Check the KBB ratio's.
Papelbon (AA) 3.61
DeSalvo (AA) 2.22
Big, big difference. I also believe that Portland plays in a hitter's park. Not sure about Trenton.
Papelbon (AA) 3.61
DeSalvo (AA) 2.22
Big, big difference. I also believe that Portland plays in a hitter's park. Not sure about Trenton.
IIRC, Portland favors hitters while Trenton favors pitchers, but neither is to the extreme, I think. In addition DeSalvo has given up only 3 home runs in 89 IP this year at AA while Pap gave up 9 in his 86 AA innings and DeSalvo has(d) a slightly higher Kper9 though Pap has the Hper9 advantage.
DeSalvo made the All Star team. Papelbon did not.
That's why his age doesn't matter as much as for other pitching prospects.
Papelbon didn't make the AA All Star team b/c he wasn in AAA.
I know. I was just trying to give RC#1 a hard time.
7 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 11 K, 2 BB
According to the stadium gun, he was mostly around 91 with his FB, topping out at 95. His breaking ball has a ridiculous amount of movement on it, it will be devastating if he can learn to control it.
He's a prospect.
With the Yankee/Red Sox comparison, I think it's striking that Papelbon was the Sox #3 prospect in BA, while DeSalvo didn't even make the Yankee top ten. And that certainly isn't because of the strength of the Yankee farm system.
I would say, though, that such a low ranking for a college pitcher who succeeded in the FSL typically means the player is seen as "getting by on guile" without the requisite stuff for the next level. So DeSalvo should hit the prospect radar this offseason if he keeps it up - he'll have shown quite a few of his doubters.
I'd rather have Papelbon, and by a good bit.
He had an ok half-season with Portland last year, but tanked at the end and is now a 4th OF.
/Somewhat random thoughts.
I'd be waiting for him to post better ERAs based on his other numbers, and I'd be worried about the lack of respeck from BA, but K/9 > 9 is what it is.
I'd wouldn't trade any of the Red Sox top 3 for Clippard, certainly. But I wouldn't trade any of them for any of the Yankee pitching prospects. I think the Sox big three are a pretty special thing, not a particularly useful baseline for comparison - except for fanboy bragging.
I don't know why you say he's little though. Baseball Cube list s his height at 6:3, though he only wieghs a 170 lbs.
FWIW, I kind of like those whippet-type frameson a pitcher, for totally irrational reasons. Maybe because Satchel Paige was built like that.
The SoSH rumor mill seems to be "not Wilmington" with speculation that it will be Portland though a "get used to being a pro" week in Lowell would make just as much sense before they ship him someplace to face appropriate competition.
This is a great time for the signing. I was getting a little worried that if it dragged another week or two he wouldn't have much time in the minors. Season is over in about 5 weeks. You figure as a releiver he might only pitch 5 innings per week. If he starts now he can get in ~25 IP which is about double that Meredith needed to "prove" he was ready for Boston. So you know, he should be twice as good.
I was referring to him now being 6'4'' 170, though I think he's actually 180. Still he looks rail thin and the reason I brought that up is that that makes me feel if he can add some weight to his frame he could be a guy whose fastball really takes another step up. He had another good start last night: 7 innings, 1 hit, 0 runs, 0 earned runs, 0 walks, 8 strikeouts. I really like him as a pitching prospect.
I have only one question for you, Theo. Why do you hate freedom?
To show you how much Buck knows. He included Hansen in the "Big 7" of untouchables, not realizing the Sox could not trade Hansen for a year. Buck is a bigger fanboy than anydody on this site.
there's no big 7. there are 5 "untradeable" prospects. buckley is full of ####.
methinks you have the right idea and buckley does not.
I don't think there are any untradeable prospects, save maybe Pedroia, only because the Sox probably value him far more than others do (or maybe they don't). I think Hanley can be had in a package for a major league star.
I'm just hoping that this year's deadline-ish deals aren't as disappointing as last years, where we had to bid farewell to an icon and a good prospect.
agreed. that's why i used the quotes.
I got the impression that the Sox were going to see what he could do this year, but then he went to on the suspended list for steriods and he has been on the back burner since.
Criminy, Darren. Last year's deadline deals propelled the team to a title.
If you find that disappointing, then I could use a little more disappointment.
I'm still skeptical of this argument, if only because the incredible run of pitching performances the starting rotation put up shortly after the deadline usually gets left out of the equation. How much of that had to do with a new shortstop, 4th outfielder, and defensive 1B sub I don't know.
Pokey wasn't exactly killing them on D, and the starters didn't reel off a stretch like that when he was the starting SS. Roberts and Mientkiewicz I doubt affected the starters' performance all that much since they were primarily late-inning defensive subs.
I don't think Theo's moves made no difference; they certainly made the team deeper, especially off the bench. But I think tagging them as the catalyst for the championship run is a reach. It makes a nice and tidy narrative, but I don't believe they were the most important thing that happened on the way to the title. Not even close.
Last year's team was too good not to make a run, and I believe was unlucky until August, and then a little lucky after. I still would like Murton back.
The K and BB rate improved because the pitchers didn't have to worry about the batters putting the ball in play. The pitchers went nuts in August when they realized their new defense could help them out.
In addition, they didn't have to labor so much because the defense wasn't giving extra outs to the opposition.
And, other than Cabrera replacing Nomar, it was the same defense behind the pitchers. I repeat, Pokey (a much better defender than Cabrera) was the starting SS for a sizeable chunk of the season, and the pitchers never tore it up in front of him like they did in August.
No. The pitchers could be super-aggressive and could go right after the hitters, knowing that, even if the ball is put in play, the defense will help them out. This results in more K's, more GO's, more FO's and less BB's.
And, other than Cabrera replacing Nomar, it was the same defense behind the pitchers.
Nope. Roberts logged a lot of time in the outfield, in place of Damon and Trot. When they had both Damon and Roberts in the outfield at the same time, their outfield defense was outstanding. Millar was getting time out there before and was horrible. And even after Trot came back, his mobility was limited.
And Mientkiewitz not only fielded his position better (a lot better) than Millar but he saved the other infielders too, with picks that Millar would never have made.
July August
Wakefield .307 .238
Schilling .270 .245
Arroyo .225 .248
Foulke .267 .167
Timlin .319 .341
Pedro .248 .215
Lowe .310 .261
Embree .289 .235
</pre>
Everyone improved except Arroyo and Timlin. And Timlin only pitched 10 innings in August.
July August
Wakefield .307 .238
Schilling .270 .245
Arroyo .225 .248
Foulke .267 .167
Timlin .319 .341
Pedro .248 .215
Lowe .310 .261
Embree .289 .235
</pre>
Everyone improved except Arroyo and Timlin. And Timlin only pitched 10 innings in August.
Roberts started 6 games in CF and 11 in RF.
Millar was getting time out there before and was horrible.
Yeah, but Kapler played plenty (some might say more than enough) out there too, and he's supposedly very good defensively.
Total outfield starts:
Kapler 73
Millar 66
Nixon 36
Roberts 19
And Mientkiewitz not only fielded his position better (a lot better) than Millar but he saved the other infielders too, with picks that Millar would never have made.
Granted, but how often did this affect the starting pitchers? Mientkiewicz only started about half the games he appeared in with Boston. So you'd have to figure a lot of the time he was coming in for the 8th and 9th innings to get Millar's skillet hands out of there.
Combined with the other gloves brought in, apparently quite a bit, after perusing the table I inserted above.
Did you see similar variations for other months or was it only JUL/AUG?
you cna't just look at starts. You have to look at innings. Pokey, Minky and Roberts (sometimes) were all used as defensive replacements.
Yes, but we were talking about the remarkable run by the starting rotation. Presumably, late-inning defensive subs would not have the same impact on the starters' confidence. On the relievers' maybe, but not the starters'.
I didn't include Sept. because I thought it would confound the data (Sept callups, non-critical games etc.)
Schil -- July was worst BA against; of course there is a drop off in August.
Wake -- August is the same as May, with more HRs.
Petey -- BA against by month until Aug: 230, 250, 233, 248, 215
Lowe -- June BA against is 245
Arroyo (left off the list) saw his BA against go up in August.
I have no idea if the story of Roberts, Cabrera, and Minky being the difference is true. It could very well be. But, that list doesn't come close to showing it.
Comparing APR -> MAY, for example, everyone in your group's BAA dropped except for Wake, Pedro, and Embree. Further, the only guy in your group to have his best BAA month of the year in AUG was Pedro. Everyone else had posted an equal or better BAA during either APR, MAY, or JUN (or sometimes 2 or 3 of those months) while pitching in front of the "bad" defense.
I see no evidence that those deals led to the hot streak directly (or didn't).
I agree, Darren, that BABIP would be better but I didn't have time to figure them out and I don't know if they are publicly available.
Petagine went 1-2 with an RBI.
Machado had 2 hits to drive his average up to .314(he looks like a player, maybe not a good player but somebody useful.).
Papelbon kicked some behind. In 5 inings, he K'd 8 with only 1 BB and 1 earned run.
And, he followed that up with a 2/5 performance in the 2d game of the double header.
Total: 5/10 with 5 doubles.
(Machado had another couple of hits to move up to .320, btw.)
Well, considering that essentially the exact same BAA improvements were observed in the April-to-May timeframe...in a word, yes, I do think it's a coincidence. The pitchers got hot. I'm sure the defense helped. I'm not sure the defense *caused* it, or even catalyzed it, though.
they spelled "Anibal Sanchez" and "Red Sox" wrong.
I liked this part.
1. Tampa Bay
2. Boston
3. Toronto
4. Baltimore
5. New York
I think New York's system might be better than Baltimore's though. I don't really know.
Yeah, that and the complete absence of Sanchez were the things that really jumped out at me. The Blue Jays prospect mentioned made me do a double take actually.
Is Toronto really the #3 system in the division? Who do they have in the minors, anyway? I can't hardly think of anyone.
The description of Papelbon as throwing "three plus pitches" was pretty awesome. But then I started thinking that, really, a guy who actually has three plus pitches and a track record like Papelbon's would obviously be #1 or #2. So I don't think Perry really meant "three plus pitches."
It is rather nice that the Red Sox have not 1, not 2 but 3 major league ready pitching prospects who promise to be good. And that's not counting Delcarmen.
The staff is going to look a whole lot different next year. In the pen, I think Timlin and Bradford stay but everybody else is in jeopardy, it seems. They'll probably bring Myers back.
Their AA team is pretty crappy. Josh Banks looks good, but there's not much else.
Not a lot I don't think, but they're hurt by pushing Adams, Hill, Rios and Chacin to the majors in the last year and a half.
Brace yourselves gentlemen, next April when Hanley, Lester, Papelbon, Sanchez, Pedroia and Hansen are the early co-leaders in the AL RoY race - the Sox farm may look a little thin too.
Sickels did a mid-season Top 50 pitching prospects and had that Janssen guy at 27 or something like that and he was the only guy I had never even heard of.
I don't think the position propects are in great shape, but they've got some intersting pitching prospects.
McGowan and Rosario coming back from TJ and pretty close. Both were seen as top of the rotation starters pre-injury. I haven't really looked to see how they're coming along this year though.
David Purcey and Zach Jackson, their top two picks from last year, are pretty solid pitching prospects.
Oh, and Ricky Romero who was the 6th overall pick this year is obviously very highly rated.
There are also a decent number of command and polish collegians like Banks and Janssen. And Dave Bush, who I guess is another guy who recently sorta graduated to Tor.
I went to see the SeaDogs last night (with Uncle John~!), had a very nice, relaxing time. We got our seats upgraded from general admission to field boxes down the 3B line.
It was a pretty non-descript game. Hanley created a run in the first by walking, taking second on a single, stealing third and scoring on a wild throw from the catcher. After that, not too much. Hanley showed pretty good discipline at the plate against Jays '04 1st-rounder David Purcey, but never made particularly good contact. Hanley was clearly the best player on the field, but also clearly not ready for MLB. (Purcey, by the way, looked overmatched in AA. He has two good pitches - 91-92 fastball and 75-80 hammer curve, but he does not repeat his delivery well and he was behind in the count all night.)
Chris Durbin made a great throw from the LF corner to nail the batter at 2nd. And hit a homer. He looked ok.
Pauley looked like a non-prospect. He could spot his fastball and curve ok, but even the Fishercats hit him hard when he missed a little bit. He doesn't have the stuff for the big leagues.
Edgar Martinez (converted catcher) pitched a good inning of relief. He has an easy windup and pretty good control of a 93-94 fastball with a pretty eh slider. I could see him getting a chance down the line.
I got to see Petagine again last night on the milb.com webcast. He's a major league hitter. Quick, powerful swing, good patience. It's getting frustrating to watch him kill the ball.
Sigh.
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