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Do minor leaguers struggle more against quality breaking stuff than against quality fastballs? That seems to be one of those general bits of baseball wisdom that I've picked up without knowing enough to really speak to it. If that's the case, it seems reasonable to assume that Buchholz will need more adjustment time than a guy who was doing the same thing, but relying primarily on an unhittable fastball.
If I had to guess, I would say yes.
That is a minor league truism, but generally one reserved for A ball pitchers. Going back 10-15 years, the Sox Joel Bennett was a classic example of a guy who piled up a ton of A ball strikeouts with a very advanced curve and an 87 mph fastball.
It seems to be much less of an issue for AA pitchers. They're actually facing hitters who have seen curveballs and have demonstrated some ability to hit them. And more importantly, Buchholz has much better stuff around that curveball.
Just looked up Bennett to see if my memory was correct - 221 Ks in 181 IP in the Car in 1993! Let's see Clayboy top 200 Ks before we talk about him being better than Joel Bennett much less Lester and Papelbon.
C-Wok, Murphy's numbers look great, don't they? He's actually hitting better than Moss right now.
Murphy .314 .407 .488
Moss .275 .379 .517
If his defensive rep is accurate, he could actually be something. (It seems that Moss's hot start was, as feared, just that.)
Not really. His K rate dropped by 2 per 9 IP from his big year in the Car to AA and he put up an ERA over 4 in a New Britain park that absolutely crushed offense. I suspect his translated AA performance would be pretty marginal although he did generally strike out a good number of hitters even in the high minors.
bully for the cube, they have El Sid's minor league stats
Trading him for Bob Bailor and Carlos Diaz wasn't Bagwell-for-Anderson, but I'm still scarred by it.
Tavarez does have a 4.63 FIP and a 3.90 XFIP, the latter of which is the 2nd best # for a starter on the club. He looks like he has good movement on his pitches, but he's gotten such awful results.
Ooops. My last comment mentioned Bennett again so thought you were referring to him.
Yeah, Buccholz has been ridiculously good.
a) He can pitch in the majors right and certainly outperform Tavarez. I don't think that's really going out on a limb. But I'm sure they would like to get him some time against a different sort of competition in triple-A before he even gets a look. I think he's got about 2 or 3 double-A starts left in him before he gets promoted to Pawtucket. We'll evaluate the Lester situation from there.
b) I think Bowden will be there my the middle of next month.
c) I project Buchholz as a 1-2 and Bowden as a 2-3. Upsides are Carpenter and Morris, respectively.
I think so, for exhibit A check out Jamie Vermilyea's minor league K progression.
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/V/Jamie-Vermilyea.shtml
The comp in my head is Rich Hill, who took an extra year or so to produce in the majors after putting up absolutely sick K numbers in the minors. Hill's fastball and command are not as good as Buchholz', but he's a lefty and his curveball is probably better. He's not a great comp, but he's the guy in my head. I brought up the curveball pitcher thing not to compare Buchholz to failed prospects, but to compare him to prospects who took a little extra time to adjust to the highest levels of competition.
Will we have to wait as long for Buc as they did for Carp? Pre-overworked Morris, or post-overworked Morris?
I chose the Morris comp for Bowden because the curveball is his best pitch and he has good command of a 91-94 mph fastball.
I'd rather keep Wily Mo and trade Coco. He's angering me right now.
They really ought to promote Buchholz to AAA really soon. There's a pretty good chance that he's way better than Tavarez and Lester (who I think are close to equal right now) so they should give him the best chance to show it. Although maybe the best-case scenario is that the Sox clinch a playoff spot in late June and can just hold Buchholz in the minors and delay his arbitration a season before getting him in the pen for the playoffs.
Hughes 30 IP, 19 H, 0 HR, 2 BB, 30 K, 1.80 ERA
Bowden 45 IP, 35 H, 1 HR, 8 BB, 45 K, 1.40 ERA
After you account for park, that's well, that's a fun comparison is all.
Another guy who has actually already become a top pitcher in the Majors, Brandon Webb, pitched for Lancaster. Here are his numbers for his age 22 season there:
162.1 IP, 174 H, 9 HR, 44 BB, 158 K, 3.99 ERA.
46 IP, 35 H, 1 HR, 8 BB, 46 K, 1.37 ERA
7 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 5/1 K/BB
Jake Peavy perhaps?
Nah, I'm thinking Pedro. And for Bowden, I think Greg Maddux is a good fit.
Also, if you put Carpenter's 3 year GB% (~53%) against Peavy's (~41%), Buck's career minor league GB% (47%) bisects both of them.
Matsuzaka, Beckett, Wakefield? Schilling? Lester? Buchholz? Zink? (my unrealistic pipe dream)
Also, whatever happened to Clement?
;)
I don't like that dude. He's a Jonah or something.
How about that win?
Temple, have you (or anyone else for that matter) looked at how well minor league GB rates correlate to the majors?
Undescended testis
i agree with your short answer. not so much with your long answer. my version of the long answer would be: NO.
I like the Bowden promotion a lot. If I may get on one of my hobby horses - what's great about the promotion is that it is, in itself, evidence for how well Bowden was pitching, and for how much the Sox liked him in the preseason. We are so far removed from so much of the most important information about prospects that I think the question on a promotion like this should be not so much "good or bad idea?" as "what new evidence do we get from this about hte players involved?" Given what we know about how conservative the Sox have been with in-season promotions, this suggests that the Sox were prepared to jump Bowden to AA quickly, and saw him, before hte season started, as a kid who's ready to be challenged in the high minors. That's great news, on top of his (insane) statistics.
I'm sure some of you will find something to nit-pick about it.
I think this is more a matter of getting him out of Lancaster before the weather heats up, to be honest.
-- MWE
And not a moment too soon, either. Have you checked the score against Lake Elsinore tonight? Yikes!
Agreed about catchers. Mirabelli will retire after this year, and Varitek should not get a new contract after this one is up.
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