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I tend to think, in the case of a JD Drew signing, that all three outfielders could be on the trading block, but that the Red Sox would be happy going into spring with Crisp and Wily Mo in part-time roles. That is, both Manny and Drew would need regular rest to keep them healthy, and someone of those four guys will get injured during the season - so why not just go into 2007 with the best fourth outfielder in baseball. I think Wily Mo would be able to handle that and not go crazy over being slighted. (I would think that Crisp would be the official starting CF, but he'd get pretty regular days off.)
I'll also say my critiques of the Sox front office recently have been predicated, effectively, on the assumption that a Matsuzaka + Drew offseason is the standard by which big market teams should be judged. It would be a greeat, great offseason. I'm holding my breath, but I'm about 80 times more optimistic about '07 than I was in October.
I agree. The Sox would then be in a position of strength: if the right deal came along, I'm sure they'd pounce, but Wily Mo seems fairly easygoing, and with the injury histories of those four, it's likely there'd be playing time for all anyway.
Are there any logical platoons for that foursome?
I agree that Drew and Matsuzaka would be great, and a reasonable expectation given the revenue streams the Sox generate.
Very Omar Minaya, isn't it? Spend tons of cash to sign the very best players? Seems straightforward enough, except the Sox haven't done it lately.
Speaking of the Mets, someone on SoSH claimed that the Mets bid 38m, just behind the 42 of the Sox. Anyone seen/heard that anywhere else?
I can't believe the Yanks traded Jaret Wright to the O's along with 4 million bucks. He wasn't that bad was he? Thats the type of deal we need to get in on, although I realize that this particular trade was probably not an option given the teams rivalry.
You might describe it as a bargain basement + premium penthouse strategy, as opposed to a Patriot-style (or even.. Tiger-style?) commitment to an army of many mid-priced, quality regulars.
Well, Omar offsets Pedro, Beltran, and Delgado with Wright, Reyes and, say, Heilman.
I wasn't knocking the strategy by comparing it to Omar. In fact, I think Minaya is not nearly as bad as many around here seem to think (or at least once thought). He did a terrible job with a very difficult situation in Montreal, and has done a very good job with a much easier situation in New York.
Perhaps. But I hope the strategy is: sign Matsuzaka and Drew first, then, having bolstered the roster considerably, look into possible 5-way blockbusters that lead to a more balanced roster. Or whatever. But they need to strengthen the roster considerably first, and that's going to cost big bucks.
I don't see what wrong with averagish contributions up the middle. Averagish wins games. Averagish and cheap is what allows you to buy the Drews and Matsuzakas of the world. The Red Sox should focus on (a) starting pitching, (b) relief pitching, (c) outfield defense and (q) everything else.
I like the idea of Hinske and Cora together covering all the positions on the diamond, save catcher. Can Cora play an emergency CF?
Not to rain on the awesomeness of a possible Drew/Matsuzaka parade, because that would be totally sweet, but I'm not totally sold on the awesomeness of the infield.
All those five guys should be solidly average next year, and Lowell can probably be counted on for another 10 runs above average. Average is good. Great is better, but you can only buy so much of that.
If your argument is that Gonzalez, Pedroia and Varitek aren't pretty good, averagish players, then I disagree with you and I've got a lot of data to back it up.
This strikes me as a strikeout/fly ball rotation. In that case, perhaps Lowell and Gonzalez are not such great fits, although Lowell seems to benefit from the Monster. If Theo can get a big 1B bat, I think the route to go is to move Youk back to 3B. Lugo at SS makes a lot of sense, but that would be an insane amount of spending by the Bosox in one offseason.
I had this thought last year, but, if I remember correctly, the numbers didn't back me up. You're certainly right that if the Sox aren't getting many groundballs, they're rather poorly constructed: all-hit no-field OF, all-field no-hit IF (I'm exaggerating obviously, but still).
Any offense with Manny and Ortiz is going to hold its own but I guess the Red Sox might not be counting on being as great offensively as they had been in 2004 and 2005. They don't have to be to win but it is something I thought they might consider.
MCA hit it on the head in #1 -- each of those OFers should get regular time of to stay healthy and fresh. Drew would get his rest against tough lefties, Coco more regularly, and Manny occasionally, barring injury. And plus, it's insurance against the possibility of Coco's problems not being just the finger injury (or that the injury lingers for some reason).
Rask - as much as it would be great to move Youk to 3B, but there doesn't seem to be much of a fit in this year's 1B market. Perhaps another year of Youk at first, then find someone from the 2007 FA class.
Or maybe Lars Anderson is ready then, if you're an optimist.
It makes sense to me, because the hardest thing to do in baseball is to upgrade from average. Every tick above average costs many millions. It's hard to get your money's worth when you've already got averagish players - the only way is to sign true stars, and there aren't any infielders of that caliber available this offseason.
On the other hand, it's very easy to upgrade from replacement level, and you maximize your upgrade if you go from replacement level to a star. That's what the Red Sox are trying to do with hte pitching staff, and I think it's absolutely the right way to go. They are focusing on the areas of the team where the investment can pay off the best.
And I still think Manny is going bye bye.
If the FA market is really as bonkers as people ar predicting it to be, isn't the Manny contract now reasonable value?
If Aramis is worth $15 mil, Manny is surely worth 17-20..
FRAK THIS
Forget that, why not have both? Manny/Drew/Pena (+ Crisp as backup) makes the most sense to me.
How about instead of those guys, you use their $12 mil in salary to sign two good relievers? I like depth as much as the next guy, but these are some expensive bench players.
Coco as a bench player doesn't make sense to me either. He's an above average player in his prime. He should be starting. If anyone's going to be the 4th OF, I'd say it's Pena. But as has been mentioned, all of these guys have spotty health records, so a a 4-man rotation could work too.
The Seibu Lions are thinking to come agreement with Red Shoes Boston of American Depth. The team has said to reporter in town, that many days no business come to my hut, but Matsuzaka has fear? A thousand times no. He never doubted himself for a minute for he knew that his monkey strong bowels were girded with strength like the loins of a dragon ribboned with fat and the opulence of buffalo dung. Glorious sunset of his heart was fading. Soon the super karate monkey death car would park in my space. But Matsuzaka has fancy plans and pants to match. The monkey clown horrible karate round and yummy like cute small baby chick would beat the donkey. Donkey donkey donkey. And Mike Crudale.
for the bullpen: i think we should get f-rod, b.j. ryan, jenks, and some other unattainable closer from japan.
me, too. looks like a good team!
WATANABE!!!!
How about instead of those guys, you use their $12 mil in salary to sign two good relievers? I like depth as much as the
next guy, but these are some expensive bench players.
Those guys will not add up to 12 mil. The only reason they'll come close to 12 is because Hinske has a stupid contract.
Aren't the Sox paying Hinske $3 mil and wouldn't you expect to pay Cora $2 mil? The rumors on Iwamura are that he'll cost $5-10 mil for posting and $5-8 mil or so annually. Conservatively, that's around $12 mil altogether.
Good point. Almost forgot about that.
Although, actually, that contract looked great the day it was signed, if I remember correctly. It was only by the end of the season that one might have had serious doubts.
But really, if he stays healthy (fingers crossed, obviously), he doesn't have to be much better than he was to earn that contract. Not in this market.
But on the reliever point, the Speiers of the world got around 3/12 last year. Assuming charitably that that remains the same, they could sign/trade for another reliever for 8 mil/year. This could be Gagne, Dotel, Lidge, etc. That may not even be enough.
The larger point, of course, is that these are some pretty expensive bench players. In Cora's case, it's pretty defensible. In the case of Iwamura/Hinske, it's tough to see the need.
MC, you're a good guy. Did you ever consider that maybe you deserved a pony? Maybe you SHOULD be expecting one. If not you, then who?
(kidding. but i'd temper my enthusiasm if i were you, icaagw)
It will be interesting to see where the payroll goes. My guess is that the Sox will try to budget the payout as a multi-year expense, so it only comes out to ~$10M per year, and then some X% of that is theoretically recouped through business stuff involving Japan and whatnot. That only leaves the Sox with several million cut out of the payroll budget this year, so I'm not sure to what degree we'd notice it.
We should get as many pitchers with exotic deliveries as possible.
Mr. Henry's willingness to open his wallet for a huge posting fee (though reportedly $34-$38M, rather than Gammo's $42M figure) is encouraging, but imagine how Mr. Boras sees it: "That's $34-$38M going to Seibu that should be going to my client. If I wait a year, and he's a true FA, we get all of it." Wouldn't it be rational to forego a few million in '07 in exchange for that posting fee?
From the Sox' standpoint, there's some ceiling on Matsuzaka's value; the posting fee to Seibu gets deducted from that in making an offer. Let's be optimistic and say Matsuzaka is a clone of Clemens, who has averaged 7.5 WARP1 over the last 6 years. By MORP, that's worth a little over $16M/yr. Allow for inflation and call it $17M.
So if "Rocket II" Matsuzaka was a true FA, you might be willing to go 6 years, $102M. But the posting fee gets in the way, limiting your offer to him to 6/$60M on up to 6/$68M (depending on whose reported posting fee you believe). Would that get it done?
A 3-year deal (on the assumption Boras wants his man free sooner) has a maximum value of $51M. Deduct the posting fee and you're talking 3/$9M to 3/$17M. Boras would laugh in your face.
Bottom line: rational behavior on either side might stand in the way of getting a deal done. Are we hoping Mr. Henry will be irrational?
Thus, you can't use $16mm and sign Clemens I if Clemens II doesn't sign. And, thus, I'm not sure what is the rational valuation for DM. What is the rational valuation for something that is irreplaceable? I assume you pay the most that you can afford without it negatively effecting the rest of your team's construction (giving other opportunities, etc.).
(As an aside: His surname is Daisuke, right? So, calling him Matsuzaka is likely calling Ramirez "Manny," right? Nothing wrong with that, of course, just making sure.)
If you want my cheap econ-101 reading of Henry's bid, it's that the Red Sox forecast MORP to be utterly irrelevant to this offseason because its estimate of $$/win is way, way too low in a game swimming in money.
The non-linearity of the MORP equation also addresses Josh's point. In effect, it considers the fact that you can't plug in two cheap 4-WARP players to replace an 8-WARP guy.
In any case, I'm on record as forecasting that we're about to see 30 days of fruitless negotiating. I'll be happy to be wrong about that, 'cause it'll mean either (a) Boras has settled for less than his client's true-FA value, or (b) Mr. Henry has spent way more than the going market price to bring in a pitcher who will entertain me. We'll see.
One worry I have is that this gambit is a repeat of some of the Sox FO's recent trade-deadline follies: they spend most of their time on a complicated and ultimately doomed negotiation, while other options evaporate.
i believe his surname is Matsuzaka.
Prof - I think we actually aren't saying the same thing. I'm not just arguing that Mats = 6 wins which is better than 3+3 wins. I'm arguing that for certain elite players, replacement value is a bit of a concept that doesn't seem to make sense - you can't replace him, therefore his market is pretty much (at this point) an N of 1. Same with Bonds in his all-time great seasons. Or Liriano. Or Clemens, really. MORP doesn't make sense in that context.
(OTOH, MORP makes perfect sense when we are looking at even the JD Drews of the world, who are good but not clearly outside the realm of even some other players on the market today.)
We may just disagree if Mats is such a player. I think the RS, though, value DM in the N=1 category. (Of course, I don't mean that; DM is in a category of N=veryverysmall, and unavailable.)
Daisuke's best alternative is whatever he makes this year ($4M or something? I'm not sure), then reentering the FA market next year, with the risk that he could get injured and not get the big payoff. So maybe his walk-away point would be $7M/year (my speculation).
Those are the best alternatives for each side; they'll likely come out somewhere in the middle, finding a way to divvy up the economic value available in some more or less equitable fashion.
Having an "overall salary budget" for him would be sub-optimal for the Sox if they're behaving rationally (though there may be some upper bound on salary they could feasibly pay).
Hipolito: The posting fee is NOT a sunk cost. It's not "irretrievable" in this sense: If Boras acts like an ass or Matsuzaka has a motorcycle accident in the next 30 days, the Sox can walk away without spending a dime. It is effectively Seibu's cut of Matsuzaka's future earnings, but they get zip if a deal isn't reached. Since it is therefore part of the marginal cost of signing him, the Sox MUST consider it in their negotiations--unless they're irrational.
Also, one qualification to my use of the word "irrational": I mean that narrowly, related purely to $$$. We might have to entertain the possibility that Mr. Henry has joined Mr. Steinbrenner as a "win-maximizer" rather than a "profit-maximizer," willing to over-spend to get another flag. We'll see.
we're talking about a team that has employed: mike myers, chad bradford, tim wakefield, hideo nomo, byung hyun kim, and keith foulke. how many more exotic deliveries do you want?! =)
btw, i didn't even mention rich garces...any delivery motion from that body is funky!
Would Hitler pay $20M a year for Daisuke Matsuzaka?
The Red Sox are swimming in cash, and need a top of the rotation pitcher. The best available option is Matsuzaka. The amount they bid for a posting fee does not count against the salary cap, and to include that as sort of a "well, it means they are playing $XX million a year" misses the point. They have, by my count, $40-45 million space under the salary cap, and Matsuzaka's salary will easily fit under that umbrella. When you consider the potential to recoup some of the posting fee through increased exposure and popularity overseas, it makes perfect sense.
How, other than an overactive imagination or sour grapes, is it any more complex than that?
It's not that I think they don't want to, but I don't see Boras advising Matsuzaka to sign for anything but a huge, huge deal considering the money he knows teams are willing to invest just to talk to him.
30 spring training games
162 season games
March through Sept-October-----8 months = 32 shows per season
produced by NESN sponsored by say Mizuno
that would easily bump the Japan version of 'The Mad Fisherman'
If so, then it's much more likely this deal will get done.
This is just a fascinating negotiation. TheBosox have 30 days and then it goes to next high bidder. So essentially Seibu should be willing to kick back at least the differential between the high bid and next bid. do they kick back more or wait to see want the #2 team does?
What does Boras do? Take the $4m this year from Seibu and try to collect the entire bounty next year? Will the market be same? Teams may be flush with cash today, but owners spend it like drunken sailors.
The posting fee doesn't count towards the luxury tax, so a willingness to pay a posting fee doesn't necessary mean teams will pay that much in salary. So he can't recoup the full ~$42M reportedly bid even if he waits a year.
If DM's free agent value is 5/75, the deal may not get done. After the posting fee of 42M less a 7M kickback less a 40% luxury tax discount (generous) the salary "cost" of the posting fee is at least $21M. So if the value on the market is 5/75, then the offer should be 5/54. If DM waits, he gets 4M from Seibu and should be able to get 4/60 next year. Total comp by waiting = 64M. Boras should take 5/64 or 3/38 or 4/50. Will the Sox pony an add'l 10M?
No it doesn't. We have 100 threads on this, could you pay attention. The Sox have 30 days and then it is over - and he goes back to Japan. UNLESS - Bug Selig determines the RedSox didn't bargain in good faith, in which case Bud has the right to offer the Lions the number 2 bid, but they have no obligation to accept it.
Of course, if what they really want is the player for another season, Seibu can hang tough.
MHS: no need for the snark.
4 years at $10M per year
DM has an option to buy out the last year (becoming a FA after 3 years) by paying Boston $10M
If DM does not exercise that option, Boston has an option to buy out the last year by paying DM $5M
FWIW, it's official that Boston won the bidding but there doesn't seem to be any info about how much they bid. WTF?
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2662193
The Sox have never publicly offered more than 40-44M for a player to, you know, actually play for the team. Now they have apparently topped 50M just to chat.
If the Mets were really #2 at ~38M, then the Sox are back to having paid a pretty sizable premium.
Why would Boras do 6/90 now? Because if the market's at 2000-01 levels now, but by next year Bernanke's come to his senses and deflated us, the market for even a fit Matsuzaka may be 5/50. At these levels, Matsuzaka's subject to market risk (very substantial, IMHO) as well as fitness risk.
karlmagnus, look what you wrote there. Pedro-Prime - 75M. Manny-Prime (at the time, one of the best young hitters in history) - 160M. Matsuzaka - likely comp. Oswalt - 6/140M. That's insane. No way.
Expect Zito to get something like 7/130
Yes, there's inflation. You're projecting Germany 1920's. That's not going to happen.
OleP, I've always wondered, but how are people getting WARP1 for pitchers? I don't see it anywhere on the BPro site. Lil help?
The problem with MORP, I think, is that if you plug in guys like Soriano and Lee, they're going to get a lot more than MORP says they should. I think the market's taken a big leap forward, particularly at the top. (Please don't take this as a shot at BPro. It's a cool stat.)
As for the Clemens comparison, his past six years have included 2 of his best years, some really mediocre ones, and a year where he intentionally pitched only half a season. If you look at 04-05 Clemens (using PRAR/10 as WARP), the MORP comes up with values of like $20 to $26 mil per year. So if the Red Sox think that Matsuzaka is going to be as good as Clemens in those years--~200 IP, 2.50 ERA in the NL in front of a great defense--then their superhigh bid makes some sense.
I think you may have a reasonable concern about Boras though. Even if Matsu wouldn't get that full $40 to $50 mil in posting fees next year, he'd still get a ton more on the open market. It's a risk to stay put for a year, and it'd certainly be no fun pitching for a team that you just screwed out of $50 mil, but it'd be a big payoff after a year. Maybe if the bidding falls through, Matsu could offer Seibu $25 mil. to release him.
No they haven't. Assuming that there is no kickback and there is no Selig interference if he doesn't sign, here's what they've done before spending a penny:
1. They have kept all other teams from signing him for a year.
2. They have secured their own negotiating rights to him for this winter.
To sign him, yes, they'll end up spending a fortune, but here is one argument that they can give to Boras: The $51 million is a cost that will REDUCE the amount which they can logically pay DM. It is part of the cost of getting his services. Except for the luxury tax factor, every dollar they spend on the posting fee is a dollar they can't afford to pay in salary. Rather then paying $51 mil to Seibu and $50 mil to DM, they'd save money paying $100 mil to Barry Zito. If the $51 mill was nonrefundable if he didn't sign, it is a totally different story.
I don't think I explained that terribly well, but hopefully, I got the point across.
I'm going back to my 3/25 offer plan. Then he'd just be insanely expensive.
Or they just did it to screw the Yankees and they figure Selig won't blow the whistle on them.
It's still risky though. If Matsuzaka sucks and/or gets injured a lot, the Red Sox won't make much. Kaz Matusi turned into a national embarassment for Japan very quickly.
The AP/ESPN article doesn't mention a source for the $51 mil figure. Did MLB announce that number?
Yeah, that was the profligate Duquette/Harrington Sox. I meant the knew value oriented Theo Sox. They'd never do anything crazy!
Darren,
WARP1 totals are on the pitcher DT cards. You have to scroll down a couple sections to "Advanced Batting Stats".
There is simply no way any of us can make this make any sense. So, either it doesn't make sense or it is beyond our capacity.
I'm led to one unmistakable conclusion: not only is Theo trying to get the best pitcher on the market, he is trying to prove G0d's existence.
I've wondered if they could do this. Dice-K wouldn't be a FA until April of '08, and I'm not sure he could play just part of the year, but without playing until April he's not eligible for free agency. Now if the posting system fails once for Seibu, would they accept an offer from Boras and Dice-K that if he's granted free agency, they get X% of his new contract? It seems like it should be legal because it doesn't screw his team -- I believe the main reason the posting process was created because of the Soriano move -- and the player isn't screwed either.
Thanks. What a stupid place to put them.
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