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I'm looking forward to Clay coming back up soon...
Of course, this makes sense. Buchholz was the better pitcher before the season, and he still is.
I don't really see him as a lights-out reliever, because he really isn't good at getting major league lefties out. Any opposing manager would be able to slip in LHB pinch hitters and screw with Francona, leaving Masterson's utility pretty limited. He'd be the #5 reliever, anyway, basically the new Aardsma, which would leave him with very few high-lev opportunities.
What he needs to do is throw a bunch of innings in AAA and learn how to pitch to lefties, in particular learn to command his changeup, which has the potential to be a solidly above average pitch. I'd send Masterson down and hope that come August/September, he's made some improvement in secondary stuff and approach.
If there's something physically wrong with Okajima, and the Red Sox need a #4 reliever, I'd probably give Masterson a shot. But otherwise, I don't see much present-value in putting a guy with big platoon splits in the 5th reliever slot, and I see a lot of future value in getting Masterson more minor league work on his changeup and approach against lefties.
It's tough to integrate younger pitchers and their struggles when you're trying to compete all the time, but that's not really a bad problem to have.
What a mess
Still, it's way better to be questioning Place's rating based on issues in his component numbers than to be questioning Place's rating based on his profound sucking. And he's only struck out three times in 24 AB in July!
You have to clip it a fair bit to account for Lancaster's park factor. Still a pretty good season, though.
So, it looks the collective's best guesses were on the money. And I think this was the long term plan, anyway. So, Buchholz up after the AS break? Do they use the day off on the 10th to slot Wake into Masterson's old spot in the rotation?
It's hard for me to imagine that this is the beginning of Masterson in a full time bullpen role. Yea, he was pitching over his head, but even his xFIP suggests that he can be an average starting pitcher who can eat up innings. It's not like he was given a full chance to develop as a starting pitcher. He only got one start in triple-A.
M: I assume he'll do a part year in AAA next year filing a similar role as he did this season, assuming he is still on the team. (And I'd like him to be, but one never knows.)
Pitcher ERA+ IS/IR
Papelbon 184 0% (0/14)
Lopez 183 23% (7/31)
Okajima 149 71% (12/17)
Aardsma 148 21% (3/14)
Delcarmen 96 37% (11/30)
Hansen 73 36% (4/11)
Timlin 63* 0% (0/5)
*Aside from his horrible start to 2008 and the game in June that landed him on the DL, his ERA+ is 156. I know, massive cherry-picking, but still... I think Timlin has been more consistently effective than the people just above him on the list, and when healthy Timlin is still consistently effective.
To me, the problems are:
1. Delcarmen ineffective and/or inconsistent.
2. Okajima completely ineffective with inherited runners.
3. Hansen ineffective and/or inconsistent.
4. Timlin not healthy.
Given the team's general eagerness to DL Timlin at the first sign of poor health, I don't feel too bad about #4. He's effective when healthy, and safely tucked away on the DL when not.
Hansen concerns me, because I think he needs to work through his problems on the MLB level, but he does so at a cost to the 2008 team. Demote him and run the risk that he'll forevermore pitch like someone who's worried about getting demoted; keep him in MLB to build confidence and run the risk that he'll kill the 2008 team.
I don't see tossing Oki nor MDC. Yet their performance to date is a big part of the problem with the bullpen.
Maybe the answer to my question is "Wait a while, someone will end up on the DL by then." We had a logjam in the OF which solved itself once Ortiz was DL'ed; maybe they should just worry about getting Masterson ready and plugging him in once needed. Maybe it also means that someone will be dealt to a team looking for relief help at the deadline.
EDIT: All stats above are from bb-ref. And apparently we can edit posts in Sox Therapy.
-Why no mention of Aardsma? His excellent ERA is a function of unsustainably low H and HR rates, and watching him, I do not see an impressive pitcher. He shows the ball to the hitter very early in his delivery, making his velocity less useful, and he doesn't have a second pitch that he can throw consistently. If it became necessary to move someone to get Masterson on the roster as soon as possible, I expect that Aardsma would be the one to go.
-And I'd be shocked if the Red Sox traded a reliever. Contending teams pretty much never do that.
Eh, I think he'll be up here after the All-star break.
Simply because he really hasn't been a problem so far. I'd assumed the suggestions of moving Masterson to the pen were motivated by the pen's lack of success to date. Had Masterson been in the pen for the past 3 months instead of Aardsma, there'd have been very little difference in the pen's performance.
Components and observation might suggest Aardsma's success won't continue, and I'm OK with Masterson replacing Aardsma simply because it's believed that he's better than Aardsma. But replacing Aardsma with Masterson does nothing to solve the problems with Oki, MDC, and Hansen.
And I'd be shocked if the Red Sox traded a reliever. Contending teams pretty much never do that.
They pretty much never trade their 120 OPS+ starting shortstop, either.
I think the team needs to decide if Timlin is going to be useful or not, and work from there.
[/mgl]
Becuase Buchholz's number in the high minors translate to a very good MLB pitcher. The question is whether there's some qualitative hitch in the translation, or whether he's pitching differently in the majors. Either way, he shouldn't be in the majors right now. We've got a pennant race to win.
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