I've said it in game chatters and I've said it in other threads here: Masterson to the bullpen and Buchholz to the rotation makes tons and tons of sense. In the bullpen, you can set Masterson up against fewer lefties, or set him up against lefties to work on his approach in less key situations. But it also gives the bullpen a guy who's death to righties, can get a DP ball, and can go multiple innings. No multiple inning guy is killing the bullpen right now. Francona has tried to get 2nd innings out of Aardsma, Hansen, and Delcarmen at times, and it has backfired pretty much every single time. We don't need a "long man" per se, but someone who can pitch 2 or even 3 innings once in a while would be a great addition.

It's good to know also that Masterson is a reliable back end of the rotation guy for the future - he has shown us he belongs up in the majors.

I'm looking forward to Clay coming back up soon...

Dan states that Masterson would be used primarily against righties above, or could optionally be used to work on his skills vs. lefties in more pointed situations (less leveraged).

I agree that Buchholz is more ready for a starting role on the MLB roster than Masterson. But who do you cut loose from the pen to make room for him - and Timlin, who's also due back in Boston? I assume half of the answer is Chris Smith.

Lopez

The Globe thinks Buccholz may be up soon, too.

Of course, this makes sense. Buchholz was the better pitcher before the season, and he still is.

I think Masterson should go back to AAA.

I don't really see him as a lights-out reliever, because he really isn't good at getting major league lefties out. Any opposing manager would be able to slip in LHB pinch hitters and screw with Francona, leaving Masterson's utility pretty limited. He'd be the #5 reliever, anyway, basically the new Aardsma, which would leave him with very few high-lev opportunities.

What he needs to do is throw a bunch of innings in AAA and learn how to pitch to lefties, in particular learn to command his changeup, which has the potential to be a solidly above average pitch. I'd send Masterson down and hope that come August/September, he's made some improvement in secondary stuff and approach.

If there's something physically wrong with Okajima, and the Red Sox need a #4 reliever, I'd probably give Masterson a shot. But otherwise, I don't see much present-value in putting a guy with big platoon splits in the 5th reliever slot, and I see a lot of future value in getting Masterson more minor league work on his changeup and approach against lefties.

I concur with the idea of having Masterson pitch in AAA and see if he can improve his performance against left-handed batters. If you had to leave him with the big club, I guess you could give him mop-up duty where it doesn't matter much how well he does. I know he's likelier a better pitcher than that but opposing managers will make sure he faces lots of lefties in a high-leverage situations, and that's not good for the team or, really, Masterson.

It's tough to integrate younger pitchers and their struggles when you're trying to compete all the time, but that's not really a bad problem to have.

Are we now resigned to Hansen as one of our top 3 relievers? That scares me a little bit.

In my head, Hansen's #4 after Papelbon, Okajima, and Delcarmen. There's inconsistency there, but I like that bullpen going forward. (Provided that whatever's eating Oki's splitter is fixable.)

Buchholz should definitely be back in the rotation.

As a #5 reliever, Masterson could still pitch in meaningful games but early enough where managers are unlikely to pinch hit.

Delcarmen, Hansen, and Aardsma all have scary bouts of wildness, and their walk rates reflect it, so I'd be in favor of finding a more reliable setup arm, especially because of the Okajima uncertainty. Although given the way the Gagne deal worked out, Theo may not be quite as interested as me in going that route.

What setup arm is out there that you'd want though?

Clay backup starting in the MLB, Masterson back to AAA throwing a lot of changeups and curveballs, and backup to the MLB in September.

At the end of this great song is a simple message from J Mascis. That's the best way to explain this 5 game losing streak...

What a mess

Can either of them hit and play catcher?

Zink is almost 28-hardly a "kid", and this is the very first season of his career in which he might be projected as something other than dogmeat. He's good insurance, yeah, if 3-4 guys in the starting rota all go down at once.

Place could be in the Majors too, but he'd be lousy. He doesn't make nearly enough contact.

I doubt you see Place in double-A. Their outfield is basically set, and even if one of them gets promoted, Reddick deserves the promotion based on both his age and performance.

Yeah, Place still struck out 30 times in 97 AB in June. He hit 460/790 on contact, which is pretty much insane. Obviously, this is a big improvement - he hit 330/550 on contact last year - but given that it's one month and he still isn't showing any improvement in contact ability, it seems rather likely it's a fluke month, not Place's emergence as the unholy spawn of Ryan Howard and Jim Thome with a center fielder's glove.

Still, it's way better to be questioning Place's rating based on issues in his component numbers than to be questioning Place's rating based on his profound sucking. And he's only struck out three times in 24 AB in July!

Lars Anderson, I'll note, has cut his strikeout rate from 1/4 to 1/5. I don't know how meaningful that is - I assume that the K factors between Greenville / Sally League and Lancaster / Cal League account for a good chunk of the difference, but hey, at least he isn't striking out more, and he's hitting 400/500 quite consistently as a 20-year-old in hi-A. That'll make some prospect lists.

Speaking of on-contact slugging, Josh Reddick is slugging .705 on-contact (if you count doubles and triples equally) which is good for 4th in the Cal League. The three players above him (who are all in the same age range of 20-21) have K rates of 25.3%, 27%, and 24.4%. Reddick's K rate is 15%. Seriously, why should he ever take a walk if he can swing this freely and still crush the ball? Please promote him so he is forced to learn some plate discipline.

"...he's hitting 400/500 quite consistently as a 20-year-old in hi-A."

You have to clip it a fair bit to account for Lancaster's park factor. Still a pretty good season, though.

Link to Bradford - Masterson to AAA to go to the pen.

So, it looks the collective's best guesses were on the money. And I think this was the long term plan, anyway. So, Buchholz up after the AS break? Do they use the day off on the 10th to slot Wake into Masterson's old spot in the rotation?

Yea, I think they do.

It's hard for me to imagine that this is the beginning of Masterson in a full time bullpen role. Yea, he was pitching over his head, but even his xFIP suggests that he can be an average starting pitcher who can eat up innings. It's not like he was given a full chance to develop as a starting pitcher. He only got one start in triple-A.

It's hard for me to imagine that this is the beginning of Masterson in a full time bullpen role.

I agree. I think it makes sense to see if he can help out the Red Sox in the bullpen down the stretch this season. But after that, he needs to be throwing in the rotation (maybe even a full season in Pawtucket next year) - both his slider and changeup showed real potential, and combined with another tick of command on the sinker, he could be a very solid, above average major league starter.

I agree with both of you. Long term, I like him as a starter. This season, I'm not sure that he cracks the top 6, however.

M: I assume he'll do a part year in AAA next year filing a similar role as he did this season, assuming he is still on the team. (And I'd like him to be, but one never knows.)

I think the worst case is Masterson as Roogy down the stretch.

He would have been nice right here...

If were idly chatting about any and all prospects in this thread, I'll just point out 17 year old Michael Alamanzar. He's hitting .327 last I checked, no huge K total, some walks, no homers yet. He has tons of development time ahead of him (considering that he's in pro rookie ball when most American players his age are high school juniors or seniors).

I'll ask again: who will Masterson eventually replace?



*Aside from his horrible start to 2008 and the game in June that landed him on the DL, his ERA+ is 156. I know, massive cherry-picking, but still... I think Timlin has been more consistently effective than the people just above him on the list, and when healthy Timlin is still consistently effective.

To me, the problems are:

1. Delcarmen ineffective and/or inconsistent.
2. Okajima completely ineffective with inherited runners.
3. Hansen ineffective and/or inconsistent.
4. Timlin not healthy.

Given the team's general eagerness to DL Timlin at the first sign of poor health, I don't feel too bad about #4. He's effective when healthy, and safely tucked away on the DL when not.

Hansen concerns me, because I think he needs to work through his problems on the MLB level, but he does so at a cost to the 2008 team. Demote him and run the risk that he'll forevermore pitch like someone who's worried about getting demoted; keep him in MLB to build confidence and run the risk that he'll kill the 2008 team.

I don't see tossing Oki nor MDC. Yet their performance to date is a big part of the problem with the bullpen.

Maybe the answer to my question is "Wait a while, someone will end up on the DL by then." We had a logjam in the OF which solved itself once Ortiz was DL'ed; maybe they should just worry about getting Masterson ready and plugging him in once needed. Maybe it also means that someone will be dealt to a team looking for relief help at the deadline.

EDIT: All stats above are from bb-ref. And apparently we can edit posts in Sox Therapy.

-I expect Masterson only to come up before September in response to a need - an injury, which will almost certainly happen

-Why no mention of Aardsma? His excellent ERA is a function of unsustainably low H and HR rates, and watching him, I do not see an impressive pitcher. He shows the ball to the hitter very early in his delivery, making his velocity less useful, and he doesn't have a second pitch that he can throw consistently. If it became necessary to move someone to get Masterson on the roster as soon as possible, I expect that Aardsma would be the one to go.

-And I'd be shocked if the Red Sox traded a reliever. Contending teams pretty much never do that.

-I expect Masterson only to come up before September in response to a need - an injury, which will almost certainly happen

Eh, I think he'll be up here after the All-star break.

Why no mention of Aardsma?

Simply because he really hasn't been a problem so far. I'd assumed the suggestions of moving Masterson to the pen were motivated by the pen's lack of success to date. Had Masterson been in the pen for the past 3 months instead of Aardsma, there'd have been very little difference in the pen's performance.

Components and observation might suggest Aardsma's success won't continue, and I'm OK with Masterson replacing Aardsma simply because it's believed that he's better than Aardsma. But replacing Aardsma with Masterson does nothing to solve the problems with Oki, MDC, and Hansen.

And I'd be shocked if the Red Sox traded a reliever. Contending teams pretty much never do that.

They pretty much never trade their 120 OPS+ starting shortstop, either.

I don't really know what to think about Aardsma. Mikael says he shows the ball early and that makes his velocity less useful, but he's blown guys away with fastballs all year. Yeah, just like MDC and Hansen, he's got days where you bring him in and he can't find the strike zone, but also like those two, he has great stuff and when he can locate his fastball he looks dominant. I would hate to just throw him away; he seems like a useful arm.

I think the team needs to decide if Timlin is going to be useful or not, and work from there.

Buchholz was optioned to Portland after tonight's game. Tito said they chose there rather than Pawtucket because of his relationship with the Sea Dogs' pitching coach.

They optioned him? Those stupid Red Sox. Stupid, stupid, stupid.

[/mgl]

Toby beat me to it.

No, seriously, his projection is awesome. I guess even (supposedly) smart teams make dumb decisions sometimes..

I don't really get it. Is Buchholz, maybe, getting away with poor command in AA/AAA because his stuff is so freakish? Or is it a mental thing where he's trying to be too perfect in the majors? Or has he, I guess, maybe just not had his best stuff recently for no good reason (conditioning?)?

Becuase Buchholz's number in the high minors translate to a very good MLB pitcher. The question is whether there's some qualitative hitch in the translation, or whether he's pitching differently in the majors. Either way, he shouldn't be in the majors right now. We've got a pennant race to win.

Buchholz is Matsuzaka's evil twin.

Buchholz is the yin to Dice-K's yang

Francona was on WEEI and said that they had asked Clay to change is arm slot this season; normaly something they wouldn't do during a season. I bet this is a hard adjustment for him and is contributing to his struggles.

Francona was on WEEI and said that they had asked Clay to change is arm slot this season; normaly something they wouldn't do during a season. I bet this is a hard adjustment for him and is contributing to his struggles.

Did he say why? I assume it was an injury-concern based change, because that's an unusual move to take with a young pitcher at the Major League level