An absolute beast. BEAST. My favorite Red Sox.

According to FanGraphs, he's the clutchiest player in the league this year!

I don't think he wins the award unless the Sox catch the Rays and he bats .330.

I think a batting title and a comeback to win the division riding a hot streak of his would do it. The White Sox and Twins might have to get hot and exclude the 2nd place finisher (ie, the Rays, in this theoretical situation) in the AL East from the playoffs.

I think if he just closes out the season hitting the way he has the past three months, he will get some first place votes. If he does that and the Red Sox win the division, I think he will win the MVP. I think he's already reached the point where, by the numbers, you can make a case for him over everyone except Sizemore and Lee, and I don't see either of them winning it because the team is so bad. He has played either better offense or better defense than everyone except those Sizemore (or, in cases like Mauer and Granderson, has just been in the lineup a lot more), and even with Sizemore and Granderson, it's debatable on the defense. Even without the Sox winning the division, I could see a situation like when Pudge Rodriguez won his, where there are a bunch of corner outfielder/corner infielder types with similar numbers, plus one great pitcher, and instead they just decide to vote for the best up-the-middle player. I think with this past week's performance, Pedroia's numbers are better than Mauer's.

Pedroia, who looks like a batboy, batted cleanup for the Sox last night? My head tells me he is a player but he just looks too tiny to be a cleanup hitter.

Well, that's an interesting argument; and I've just given not-so-grudging respect to Pedroia elsewhere.

However, AL East 2b #1
.322 .367 .485 119, 104 runs scored

AL East 2b #2
.298 .378 .467 123 92 runs scored.

Pedroia's a damn good player. If he continues to hit on the road (SSS, but it looks like Fenway's giving a few doubles but taking away HR from him this year), he's a great, great, great player.

He's not necessarily the best-hitting second baseman in the AL East this year (though Roberts is 30 and likely to start declining soon).

I'd've thought, given his hitting this year, and defense from both sides of the infield, there'd be a lot of people on here clamoring for Youkilis as MVP.

FWIW, there's a frontpage article at MLB.com asking this very question.

Not saying you're wrong vis-a-vis Roberts, but:

1) Shiny batting average, and, if he wins it, shiny batting title.

2) Roberts' team is finishing last this year.

On the merits, there is an argument to be made that Roberts is more deserving than Pedroia. In reality, the difference between the two, whatever it is, isn't nearly so great as to overcome those factors when it comes to the voters.

Youkilis, while having a great year, doesn't hit enough home runs to win while playing mostly first, IMO. If he reversed his playing time between first and third, he'd absolutely be getting a lot more attention.

Isn't Kinsler the best-hitting 2b in the AL?

Probably. But he's hurt too and Pedroia's numbers are fairly close. He beats him on the volume angle.

Kinsler's target date for padding numbers is now Sept 9th...

A really incredible season, he's also got all the intangibles, but I'm tired of hearing about them (and him).

Someone from the rays needs to finish in the top 3, sure none of them have the best stats, but that turnaround has to be acknowledged.
Too bad you can;t give the MVP to a team.

If you'd told me that the Rays were going to be in first place in September and either Upton or Pena wasn't going to be in the MVP discussion back in April, I wouldn't have believed you. That said, sans injury Longoria would probably have finished top three. He'll still get down-ballot consideration, I bet.

On the merits, there is an argument to be made that Roberts is more deserving than Pedroia. In reality, the difference between the two, whatever it is, isn't nearly so great as to overcome those factors when it comes to the voters.

Youkilis, while having a great year, doesn't hit enough home runs to win while playing mostly first, IMO. If he reversed his playing time between first and third, he'd absolutely be getting a lot more attention.

Oh, I didn't expect Roberts to get more than a single 10th-place vote, and that was before the Sun and Post did their mid-summer buyouts. Kinsler is even better offensively. Youk's numbers look to be fairly close to Morneau's MVP, and I figured his walkness taking over at 3rd might be the thing for voters.

It is weird that no Ray is having that great a season.

So are Youk and Pedroia now expected to play at this level every year now?

Looking at the league leaders I surprised to see what great years Roberts, Markakis and Huff are having, I knew MB was having a great year but I didn't realize he was playing THIS good.

Kinsler's offensive numbers are superficially a little better than Pedroia's, but not a whole lot better. Arlington the best hitter's park in the AL, while Fenway is merely above average. Pedroia is a very good defensive 2B. He probably won't merit any Gold Gloves while Mark Ellis is in the same league, but he's good enough to win them against normal competition, and might win over Ellis anyways, considering that Polanco's errorless season last year won one for him. Kinsler probably is better than Pedroia offensively, but not overall, since Kinsler's a below average fielder.

So are Youk and Pedroia now expected to play at this level every year now?

Youkilis I doubt. Pedroia, maybe. He's still young. This could be part of his normal development. The base-stealing seems to be something in which he's developed more confidence. The power, I think is mostly real. Lots of players who hit tons of doubles develop home run power. Yes, he's small by today's standards, but he's only a hair shorter and lighter than Willie Mays and Gary Sheffield, and taller than Hack Wilson. You don't need to be David Ortiz's size to hit the ball out of the park. He has that big, powerful swing, and the bat control and hand/eye coordination to put the good part of the bat on the ball almost every time. It shouldn't be a surprise if he hits 15-20 homers a year.

If you'd told me that the Rays were going to be in first place in September and either Upton or Pena wasn't going to be in the MVP discussion back in April, I wouldn't have believed you.

No kidding, And what if we'd told you that not only would Upton be out of the MVP discussion, but also that there would be a discussion about whether he was a problem child.

Kinsler's offensive numbers are superficially a little better than Pedroia's, but not a whole lot better. Arlington the best hitter's park in the AL, while Fenway is merely above average.

Bb-ref's multi year park factor is 100 for Arlington and 106 for Fenway. Kinsler's OPS+ is 135, Pedroia's is 122.

Looking at the league leaders I surprised to see what great years Roberts, Markakis and Huff are having, I knew MB was having a great year but I didn't realize he was playing THIS good.

Something's happened to the first four batters on the Orioles. Roberts was always a patient hitter, Markakis as well, but the pair seem to have rubbed off on Huff and, post-ASB, Mora. Nobody's giving away at-bats anymore. (Huff, especially, might keep it up for years to come; he apparently straightened things out late last year and has pretty much been red-hot since.)

If Baltimore could find anyone in the system capable of throwing strikes.....

I was talking to my wife about this this morning, who has had three of her own. She thought it insane to wait that long to deliver, as after the first one, they tend to drop out like kittens.

Ask the Rangers how that's going.

You know something about Ron Washington we don't, Andrew?

Fun with endpoints:

Pedroia since June 15th: .395/.437/.613

Bb-ref's multi year park factor is 100 for Arlington and 106 for Fenway. Kinsler's OPS+ is 135, Pedroia's is 122.

You're right. My numbers are out of date. In the early 2000's it was the opposite. I'm not sure what this really means.

It means, in part, that the Sox have done a good job of finding Fenway hitters.

I've run regressions on MVP voting since 1938. Evidence is that batting titles have had no effect on MVP votes; hitting .329 is the saem value to a voter whether or not someone else hits .330. I know, it sounds wrong; the finding surprised me greatly. Now, on the other hand, if you wanna talk about RBI leaders on playoff teams....!

2 and 3 nailed it. He'll need to monster Sept. AND the Sox have to catch the Rays, or make it damn close and he needs to be perceived as the driving force behind it. MVP voters just love RBI's and home runs. Its not always right, but that's the way it seems.

What Would it Take to Make Pedroia a Legit MVP Candidate?

Why, strip everyone but kevin of a vote, of course!

I kid, of course. Petunia's a damn fine player.

What Would It Take to Make Pedroia A Legit MVP Candidate?

Steroids.

MVP voters just love RBI's and home runs. Its not always right, but that's the way it seems.

MVP Voters also love bag swipes. Which means for Pedroia to get a MVP, Jacoby needs to start getting on base so Pedroia can be behind him on some double steals.

MVP Voters also love bag swipes. Which means for Pedroia to get a MVP, Jacoby needs to start getting on base so Pedroia can be behind him on some double steals.

Most of his steals have been legit, not on the back end of a double steal. He's quite good at reading pitchers, and he shows no mercy to catchers who can't throw (hence the whole bunch of steals with Toby Hall catching).

MVP voters luv bag swipes when you do it for a playoff team. You can steal 50 for a non-winner and they will shrug.

What Would it Take to Make Pedroia a Legit MVP Candidate?

This said "legit", but the arguments for were more about what *could* happen, rather than whether he'd deserve it - or get a "legit" MVP.

What would it take? Lots of plane crashes.

Ian Kinsler should kill someone. Then he would get some attention.

Dustin Pedroia is 6th in VORP, but first of any team in contention or likely to make the playoffs (which the media likes).

NAME VORP
Grady Sizemore 60
Alex Rodriguez 57.9
Aubrey Huff 57.7
Ian Kinsler 55.2
Milton Bradley 55
Dustin Pedroia 53.2
Carlos Quentin 50.2
Justin Morneau 48.4
Kevin Youkilis 48.2
Josh Hamilton 46.3

I'm sorry I don't know more about this, but VORP takes into account that most 2B suck, right? Same being true of Grady and the avergae CFer?

Dustin Pedroia is 6th in VORP, but first of any team in contention or likely to make the playoffs (which the media likes).

VORP doesn't take into account defense relative to other players at one's position. This probably moves Pedroia up relative to everyone on that list except Sizemore and maybe Youkilis.

Sizemore's the name that jumped out at me when I was looking at the possible candidates. He should really win it.

Lassus, that's correct.

MVP voters just love RBI's and home runs. Its not always right, but that's the way it seems.

My take: I'm a fairly big believer in SABR statistics for their primary purpose... predicting future performance, and objectively identifying true baseball talent. But I don't know if that's what the MVP/Cy Young awards are all about... I think they are about being the most valuable player in a given year. For example, a team's Pythag record can be very meaningful, but you have to win actual games to make the playoffs. And of course you need teammates who get on base to translate high hit and slugging numbers into RBIs. Nevertheless, the "Most Valuable Player" in the league probably is the one who, given a lot of chances to knock guys in and lead his team to the playoffs, does so. You're not saying he has the sweetest swing in the majors, or the best chance to be MVP next year, you're saying "That freaking team NEEDED that clutch performance this year or else they would have been a heck of a lot worse." So IMHO, counting stats count in these races, and Carlos Quentin should be the MVP: Playoff team, 36 HRs, 100 RBIs, .394 OBP.

According to win shares, the best stat for MVP discussions because it corrects for who actually wins the games, Pedroia is not a serious candidate.

Kinsler 28
Morneau 27
Hamilton 26
Sizemore 26
Youkilis 24
Quentin 24
Mauer 23
Upton 21
Markakis 21
Lee 20
Bradley 20
lots of guys
Pedroia 18

Now in my opinion win shares undervalues defense but even so there is no way to move Pedroia to the top.

The best player is Sizemore but he's not going to win. If the season ended today here is my ballot:

Morneau
Mauer
Quentin
Youkilis

That win shares list is from about a week ago, if it's the one from the Hardball Times. According to the billjamesonline list, Pedroia's picked up three more win shares in that time. That moves him into serious consideration, especially with Morneau and Kinsler only at 26 on James' list. I think Pedroia does need to continue to play at his second half pace to win the MVP, but he has time to move up the list a bit, and it appears that the lists differ a bit. Whether this is because, if your teammates play well, you have a bad game, and your team loses, you can actually drop, or because the two lists are calculated slightly differently, I don't know. One thing I do know is that the talk of Pedroia for MVP really only got started in earnest with the two 4-hit games in a row, and those happened after the August 26 date of the last THT win shares update.

Playoff team, 36 HRs, 100 RBIs, .394 OBP.

Wow. I hadn't realized the White Sox had allready clinched the division.

Nevertheless, the "Most Valuable Player" in the league probably is the one who, given a lot of chances to knock guys in and lead his team to the playoffs, does so. You're not saying he has the sweetest swing in the majors, or the best chance to be MVP next year, you're saying "That freaking team NEEDED that clutch performance this year or else they would have been a heck of a lot worse."

I understand the main point behind what you're saying, but to imply that the runs batted in are more important than the runs scored is where you lose me. A Rickey Henderson type in his prime should always be an MVP candidate. Rickey would certainly think that Rickey deserves some MVP votes.

Pedroia 3-5 with 5 RBI's, including a 3-run jack that would have landed across Landsdowne street if not for the billboard about the monster seats.

This kid is unbelievable.

2 and 3 nailed it. He'll need to monster Sept. AND the Sox have to catch the Rays, or make it damn close and he needs to be perceived as the driving force behind it.

So, essentially, if he's Carl Yastrzemski circa 1967. Sounds about right.

I'd like to see A-Rod win it, if only to annoy those select Yankees fans who want to blame him for their team's condition.

I like that the Red Sox scored 14 runs last nite with one of the weirdest lineups they've used this year. I guess facing Radhames Liz will do that for you.

So, essentially, if he's Carl Yastrzemski circa 1967. Sounds about right.

Yeah. Um. Yaz won the Triple Crown in 1967, and also won a Gold Glove. I think he would have been the MVP even if the Red Sox had finished a few games back.

The real question is whether there's anybody else in the AL who deserves it. Right now, there's nobody that really jumps out.

East--Logically somebody from Tampa should get it, but there's nobody there. And there's surely to Yankees or Blue Jays or Orioles who deserve it. So it clearly is somebody from Beantown. And who is that if not Pedroia? I think Pedroia has clearly surpassed Youk over the past month.

Central--Ya got yer Quentin/Dye and ya got yer Mauer/Morneau. One of 'em will be up near the top unless they all cancel each other out. Oh yeah, Sizemore may well be the best player in the league but everybody knows that the MVP isn't the best player blah blah blah. But other than Sizemore, is any of these guys MV than Pedroia? I didn't think so.

West--K-Rod will get most of the interest as it relates to the Angels. Otherwise the best numbers are all down in Texas, but if Kinsler and/or Hamilton and/or... are so damn good, how come the Rangers still suck.

So if I had to fill out a ballot today, and now I am talking me and not the BBWAA, I would just be voting for the guys who are having the best year:

1. Sizemore
2. C. Lee--of course, how come the Indians suck so bad, then?
3. Halladay
4. Pedroia
5. who cares

And since 1 through 4 have absolutely no chance, well, then, there you are. Yeah, I think he da man, and I'm a Twins fan, BTW.

BTW those WS numbers really are shocking. I like WS but this is an embarrassment. I guess every stat can have a bad year.

Pedroia's going through a helluva hot streak right now. I think he'd have to repeat his .375/.425/.635 August to have even a remote shot at the MVP.

I think it's more likely that he cools off or goes into a slump.

BTW those WS numbers really are shocking. I like WS but this is an embarrassment. I guess every stat can have a bad year.

The totals printed above are from the Hardball Times. They are a week old, as was pointed out, and don't exactly match the ones from the Bill James site for the guys who haven't played in the past week. Here are the leaders from James' site:

Morneau: 27
Kinsler: 26
Sizemore: 25
Mauer: 24
Quentin: 23
Hamilton: 23
Pedroia: 22
Youkilis: 22
Lee: 22
Markakis: 21
Upton: 21
Huff: 20
Damon: 20
Ibanez: 20
Bradley: 20
Halliday: 20

My observations:

1) Pedroia is currently among the leaders, but he'll still need to have a real good month to climb higher.
2) Its interesting that many posters on this site went nuts when it was suggested that Morneau may deserve the MVP, yet he is leading the league in at least one advanced stat. Not saying that I necessarily agree with win shares, but it certainly wouldn't be indefensible to vote for him. And I'm a Red Sox fan.

I should add, the reason Morneau is number one appears to be the amazing efficiency of the Twins offense, which is fourth in runs scored despite other numbers that aren't that good. The idea behind win shares is someone deserves credit for that efficiency, so all Twins hitters get a boost. Its not a popular idea around here, so I understand the discrepency. My own beliefs are somewhere in between, which is why I never look at just one statistic.

Dustin's line is now: .333 .378 .505., 17 HR, 76 RBI, 110 R, 44 2B, 191 H, 17 SB, 1 CS.

Looking good so far.

Pedroyer's MVP chase is quickly becoming the only thing left to root for. I've started really sweating Milton Bradley, Ichiro and Mauer's box scores hoping Pedroia stays on top of the leaderboards

Seems like he would win easily if the vote was held today. We'll see how the media feels once KRod breaks the saves record and someone leads their team to the Central title. Doesn't feel like there's much momentum behind KRod and I don't think anyone would feel easy making Morneau a two time MVP. It's looking like Quentin/Mauer v Pedroia

I don't see the point in looking at win shares. It very roughly gives credit for clutchness by penalizing all players on teams that underperform their component stats, like the Red Sox. If you're going to do that, you might as well just go all the way and look at the fangraphs WPA stats

One of his comps in BB-ref is Mickey Cochrane, who exploded at the age of 24 as well, FWIW.

Dammit, I missed today's game.

We'll see how the media feels once KRod breaks the saves record...

Is the Krod thing really that big an issue? Obviously here it isn't, but to the MVP or even Cy voters? If Lee doesn't win the CY unanimously, it'll be a crime.

Dustin's line is now: .333 .378 .505., 17 HR, 76 RBI, 110 R, 44 2B, 191 H, 17 SB, 1 CS

For a guy who is built smaller then the average bloke...that will resonate nicely with voters. If he wins the batting title and somehow gets to 20 HR and the 90 RBI you specified earlier, I think the award will be his.

Bugger, sorry about the bold highlights, it won't happen again.....

Pedroia's season reminds me of Sandberg's 1984 breakout campaign; 2 2B, both 24 years old. Peds has Ryno beat in doubles and BA, Ryno in triples and steals, but really the seasons are very similar, including impact on the pennant race.

Peds has Ryno beat in doubles and BA

Please don't use that nickname ever again, JD? Please?

I should add, the reason Morneau is number one appears to be the amazing efficiency of the Twins offense, which is fourth in runs scored despite other numbers that aren't that good. The idea behind win shares is someone deserves credit for that efficiency, so all Twins hitters get a boost.

It sounds to me that if the Twinkie offense is that amazingly efficient in offense, then some of that credit should go to the man creating that efficiency with line-ups and play-calling.

I don't know win shares enough but what tangible things are factored in win shares that give the Twins this extra boost?

Pedroia crushes everyone with his intangibles. He'll win in a walk.

Pedroyer's MVP chase is quickly becoming the only thing left to root for.

The division! And the wildcard, although that's in pretty good shape.

I don't know win shares enough but what tangible things are factored in win shares that give the Twins this extra boost?

I'm not intimately familiar with WS, but one factor that favors efficient teams is the fact that a team's win shares equals 3 times its number of wins. So a team that outperforms its run differential will receive more win shares than their component statistics would otherwise seem to indicate.

Why is Pedroia batting 4th? Why not FREAKING put FREAKING Jason Bay there, move Pedroia up to 2nd, and get all of our best hitters at the top of the lineup?

Why is Pedroia batting 4th? Why not FREAKING put FREAKING Jason Bay there, move Pedroia up to 2nd, and get all of our best hitters at the top of the lineup?

Tito just likes f*cking with your mind, that's why. The Sox will coast into the playoffs with 95 or so wins, then everyone will be healthy at the right time and we'll kick arse once again.

Pedroia crushes everyone with his intangibles

You know who crushes even Pedroia with intangibles, though? Nelson Mandela.

Vote intangibles! Mandela for MVP!

Why is Pedroia batting 4th?

Pedroia:

2007- ROY
2008- MVP
2009- POTUS
2010- GOD

You know who crushes even Pedroia with intangibles, though? Nelson Mandela.

I was just over in South Africa and I spoke to Mandela's personal physician.

At least that's what he said he was. I have my doubts.

I was just over in South Africa and I spoke to Mandela's personal physician.

At least that's what he said he was. I have my doubts.

o.k., I'll bite...is there a story here? I've been to SA a few times to watch the Wallabies(Aus) and the Springboks(SA) in rugby...but have never met Nelson, nor his physician.

Not really. I was on a business trip for the gov. to oversee a clinical trial we're funding there and one of the clinical investigators said he was Nelson Mandela's personal physician. He had pictures on Mandela in his office but no photo of he and Mandela together so that's why I have my doubts.

I mean, if I were Nelson's personal physician, you'd be damned sure I'd have at least one photo of the two of us in my office.

#69
I was only taking the piss out of you mate. As you know there's like 40 mil people in SA, but your reason for the trip is interesting in its own right.

Maybe he had photos of Nelson and himself, but you know, you being white(big assumption here for the joke) and part of a large government organisation he probably has a long memory and didn't want to display them.

Pedroia:

2010- GOD

I'd vote for him.

Why is Pedroia batting 4th? Why not FREAKING put FREAKING Jason Bay there, move Pedroia up to 2nd, and get all of our best hitters at the top of the lineup?

Because FREAKING lineup construction doesn't FREAKING matter that much.

#66, I'd like to heartily agree and selfishly point out my handle on Boston.com has been "Pedroia4President" for well over a year now.

#63, #72, I was thinking about this recently and I have a prediction to make: If the Red Sox make the playoffs, Bay will be batting cleanup by the end of either the first or second series. Francona normally hates to push "his guys" down the line-up, but he appears to feel differently in the playoffs, when "win now" has a little more resonance. The first guy in the top 4 of the lineup (other than Papi) who goes cold will be pushed down and Bay will assume the #4 spot permenently.

Francona normally hates to push "his guys" down the line-up, but he appears to feel differently in the playoffs, when "win now" has a little more resonance.

I think the Bay situation, and also batting Pedroia 9th so much last year, is more not wanting to put pressure on the new guys than keeping the old guys at the top of the order. Bay is obviously mature enough to deal with the pressure of replacing Manny, and I think he's ingratiated himself enough to the fans by now that they won't boo him if he struggles, so now would be a good time to make some switch with Bay. Of course, the way Pedroia's hitting now, maybe batting Bay 2nd would be best.

The most impressive thing about Pedroia possible getting to the 20/20 milestone is that it is an accomplishment almost completely attenuated from the skill-set that makes him a great player. 20/20 is normally a nice mark, but it isn't any great shakes. 3 other second basemen have done it in the last 5 years, so it's a hard feat to accomplish, but not a generational mark. Why it would be astounding if he reached the mark is that people really assumed his raw power and speed were simply below average tools, and they are. His contact ability and hand-eye coordination in addition to steady defense and intelligent base-running were the combination of tools that were going to make him an above-average 2B, and that's what was happening his rookie year in the league. He already had a skillset which was going to lock him into being an excellent 2B for a long time.

Out of nowhere, he started compiling these numbers in areas he had no busy wandering. The additional counting stats in the HR and SB column are almost gluttonous and can't even tell more than 15% about his actual skillset. They will be useful however, when he makes that HOF bid...

Quentin's out 2-3 weeks.

My guess is that pushes Pedroia's MVP chances to about 40%

FWIW, Neyer has a new blog in which he says that Peds is the MVP ... for now

--Keep his average above .325
--Lead the league in hits
--Score 125 runs and preferably lead the league
--Top 90 RBI

--Right at .325.
--Looks good.
--Not going to happen but will lead league.
--Not going to happen.

Great season of course.

I hate the Red Sox and I haven't studied the issue in depth, but I think Petunia is a perfectly reasonable MVP candidate. Now if Youkilis wins, I might have to be committed.

Isn't Youk a similarly mediocre candidate?

Well, I just hate Youkilis, so I can't be objective about him.

There's no super candidate in the AL, especially if you consider the pennant race, as I do. Pedroia is 3rd in the league in runs created (per B-R) while playing a not-horrible second base. That right there makes him a very viable candidate. All of the league leaders have flawed candidacies. Until and unless I start digging a lot deeper, I can't say Petunia doesn't deserve to win.

Mauer is the MVP (and Sizemore should be second) regardless of what any of the clowns in the media or the moronic Twins fans who like Morneau believe.

Mauer is the MVP (and Sizemore should be second) regardless of what any of the clowns in the media or the moronic Twins fans who like Morneau believe.

Has Mauer recently passed Sizemore in actual value. If not, then I don't see why Sizemore "should" be second. If you want to impose a not in a pennant race standard (which I'm OK with), then it really doesn't matter where Sizemore finishes.