Papi Is Officially Back

Seven HRs in the past 17 games now and looking very good at the plate--this is an actual hot streak, not just a streak of “good as I used to be.” I’m now confident that David Ortiz is not only a decent hitter now, but likely to put something close to his established level of excellence. I think a line of .270/.360/.540 for the rest of the season is a reasonable expectation. 

Red Sox Odds and Ends

A few things going on, most notably, the Dice-K situation.

--Dice K had an MRI which didn’t show any structural damage. But, turns out he has “weakness,” so it’s off to the DL! Taking his place until Smoltz is activated--Dusty Brown? The need for a non-hitting 3rd catcher is puzzling. You think they’d want to have Hunter Jones’s arm around for a bit, but likely inconsequential.

--Nick Green, today’s big hero, seems to be starting full time. It will be interesting to see what happens when Lowrie comes back. Will they eat Lugo’s contract? Will Green remain the starter? Will the obsession with depth prompt them to keep Lowrie in AAA with Lugo on the big league roster?

--Dustin Pedroia’s shown an amazing ability to drop his batting average. I have to believe this just part of his streaky nature. Still, his demise corresponded rather well with his move to the leadoff role. Maybe they’ll move him out now.

--Jonathan Papelbon is still struggling with control but somehow getting the job done. We should count ourselves lucky if this is how an off year looks for him. 

Minor League Thread: Draft Time

Just thought the Therapudians might want someplace to discuss the draft. Sox draft #28, 77, and 107. 

Minor League Thread: The Red Sox Vaunted Pitching Depth

Did the Red Sox go too far in signing reclamation projects for their rotation this year. Here’s what their current rotation looks like:

Beckett, 5.01 ERA
Lester, 5.91 ERA
Matsuzaka, 10.32 ERA
Wakefield, 3.99 ERA
Penny, 5.96 ERA

Aside from just being brutally awful, is it possible that the Sox should have passed on Penny (or Smoltz) and left a slot open for one of the following guys (ERAs are at AAA):

Buchholz, 1.30 ERA
Bowden, 1.64 ERA

This question popped into my head as Buc was finishing off his near perfect game today while Penny was getting through 5.1, allowing 3 ER.

PS. Only good news about the minor league systems these days seems to be the pitchers. In addition to these two, Casey Kelly is destroying A ball and Tazawa looks like the real deal at AA. 

Delcarmen for Johnson: Where Do I Sign?

It really boggles my mind that the Red Sox--a team that is so obsessed with depth--has reportedly turned down a chance to trade from their tremendous bullpen depth to sure up the infield corners. In case you didn’t know, according the Peter Gammons and WEEI, the Sox turned down a Manny Delcarmen/Nick Johnson swap. I just can’t fathom how they didn’t jump at that opportunity. First off, Delcarmen has generally ceded his setup role to Ramon Ramirez. His gmLI (the leverage of the situations that he’s brought into) is 1.00. He’s not being used for important innings this year, often being the first guy called on when a starter falls apart in the 5th.

Second, the Red Sox have a very real need for depth at the 1B/3B area. Ortiz and Lowell are both coming off surgery. Lowell looks like he could break down at any moment and Ortiz looks like he already did. Meanwhile, Youkilis just spent 2 weeks on the DL, and was replaced by a defensively (and offensively) challenged Jeff Bailey. Nick Johnson would fill that hole nicely. He’s got a .430 OBP and is projected to put up a .400 for the rest of the season. At…

Papelbon: All Stuff and No Command

A rare Sox Therapy post just to say, I don’t like what’s going on with Jonathan Papelbon. There have been stories in the press that Papelbon has altered his delivery so that he puts less strain on his arm and can throw more pitches. So far, the result has been that he has far worse control and ends up throwing way more pitches per appearance. This finally caught up to him tonight when he walked Gary Sheffield by missing badly repeatedly, and then missed his location often on the batters that followed. I wish that Papelbon would return to his 08 style and concentrate on getting outs and hitting his spots.

Ellsburying the Yanks

Well, I guess the Sox are stuck with this guy at leadoff. You haters will just have to deal with it.

Great series for Ellsbury--he created a run by scoring from 2nd on the wild pitch and then, my favorite play in baseball, the straight steal of home. I went back and looked at the video and Pettitte definitely quick-pitched there (he skipped the 2nd half of his delivery and threw the ball while standing straight up), but they still couldn’t stop Ellsbury. Will he steal 100? 135? Probably, yes. :)

Also a great series for the pitching depth, which has been a strength all year.

Big Papi? Jury’s still out but there are few encouraging signs. 

Jacoby Ellsbury: Stuck in the Leadoff Role

Batting orders don’t mean a whole lot in the grand scheme of things, but they do decide who gets the most plate appearances in a season. The Red Sox are currently giving the most ABs to their 7th best hitter (by both what his history and observation would suggestion). In doing so, they are transferring approximately 125 PAs from Pedroia/Papi/Youk/Drew/Bay/Lowell to him. I could see two sensible courses of action that would have both made sense. First, they could have batted Ellsbury 9th this year, allowing him to function like a leadoff hitter without giving him all those at bats. If he regained the form that he had in 07, then they could easily move him back up. Second, they could have batted him 7th, in front of the weaker part of the lineup where his base-stealing and speed could have helped create some runs.

But instead, they stuck with their three rules of lineup construction: 1) Ellsbury is fast so he leads off, 2) Ortiz ALWAYS bat 3rd because he would melt otherwise, and 3) Jason Bay would die if he bat 4th or anywhere near there.

Sidenote: Umps hate Jed Lowrie. Hate him.

Minor League Thread--Spring 09 Edition

Junichi Tazawa apparently has really impressed the Red Sox before being sent down the other day. According to this very nice Globe article:

Tazawa walked one and struck out 10. He threw his curveball with precision and got batters to swing and miss it. His 1.1-second delivery to the plate from the stretch is the fastest among all Red Sox pitchers. “You’ve got to get a bunch of hits to score off him,” Francona said. “You can’t steal on him, and he doesn’t walk anybody.” The only thing he needs now is more experience, particularly with his wind-up delivery.

I didn’t really know what to think of a guy coming from the Japanese industrial leagues, but this has to be considered pretty encouraging.

Lester Locked Up for 5/$30 mil.

According to Yahoo, the Red Sox have signed Lester to a 5 year-$30 mil deal. There’s also a $13 mil. option. This buys out his last year of complete club control, his 3 years of arbitration, and 1-2 years of free agency.

This sounds a hair on the high side (if the projections are to believed), but to really evaluate the costs, I would have a small clue what’s going to happen with the economy. The Sox have locked up a young, promising, homegrown pitcher. That’s pretty good news. 

Projection vs. Observation: Jason Varitek and Luis Castillo

There’s been a lot of discussion among Red Sox fans over how Varitek will perform this year. The Mets fans are having a similar discussion about Luis Castillo. A large contingent of such fans are arguing that these players are toast. Looking at their projections, the argument goes, is a waste of time. Observing them play over the past season has made it clear that these guys will not contribute going forward.

I disagree with this and I would guess that these players are just as likely as anyone else to meet expectations. I thought it would be fun to have a running thread to track their progress as the year goes on. Without further ado, here are their CHONE projections (which are pretty typical):

Varitek: 228/326/381, 463 PA, 1.6 WAR (assuming average defense)
Castillo: 275/360/347, 536 PA, 1.2 WAR (assuming -5 UZR, which is about what an adjusted 3/2/1 projection would give)

If these guys produce as projected, they’ll both be worth their contracts. 

Forget 1B, Let’s Find a Catcher!

Now that the Red Sox have kept Lars Anderson’s path to the Majors clear, it seems that the best use for the cash that they saved would be in filling the starting catcher position. What if they could acquire one of these players in a trade, without giving up the farm:

--A durable 26-year-old who’s projected to hit about 290/380/440, who makes ~$50 mil over the next 3 years.
--A 25-year-old projected to hit 250/330/430, who will make $33 mil over the next 3 years.
--A 25-year-old projected at about 260/330/430, who will make $41 mil over the next 3 years.

These all sound like pretty attractive options. All would easily be worth their contracts and would fill a huge, gaping hole on the roster. But where do we find these mythical players. The first is Russell Martin, who I guess will make about 4/7/11 over the next 3 years. The second is Miguel Montero, who I guess will make .5/4/6 over the next 3 years. The last is Jeff Clement, who I guess will make .5/.5/4 over the next 3 years.

But wait, you say, those numbers don’t add up--these players are much cheaper than the ones described above and…

Teixeira’s Potential Impact on the Red Sox

I’ve already stated my support for the Red Sox going after Mark Teixeira based mainly on the fact that Boston has a bunch payroll room and he’s one of the top players on the market. But with Mike Lowell, Kevin Youkilis, and David Ortiz already on the team, it’s hard to figure how Teixeira will make sense financially. With that question in mind, I took a quick and dirty look at one possible scenario (the most likely one in my mind)--Teixeira is being brought in to replace Mike Lowell. Here’s what I found.

Without, Teixeira, Youkilis would presumably play 1B and assuming he’s healthy, Lowell would play 3B. Their values break down like this (values from Fangraphs, projections on offense are an average of Bill James and Marcel, defense is Fangraphs’ UZR with a 3/2/1 + 2 parts regression to the mean, adjusted for playing time and aging a bit too, positional adjustments are Tango’s):

Youk at 1B: +20 wRAA, +4 UZR, - 12.5 positional adjustment, +20 (above replacement level) = 31.5 runs above replacement
Lowell at 3B (~130 g): +2.6 wRAA, +7 UZR, +2 positional adjustment, +17 (above replacement level) = 28.6 runs above replacement
Total: ~60 Runs above replacement…

General Managers Meetings

We are a couple days into this years general managers meeting and news is starting to break.  K-Rod and C.C. have ended up in Queens and the Bronx respectively, while things 200 miles north things are a little slow. 

John Smoltz is apparently considering Boston, Detroit and the Mets.  I think this would be a terrific move, potentially the best move available to the Sox this off season.  Smoltz on a short deal would be a perfect fit for the team as it now stands.  Especially, with Atlanta’s offer to AJ Burnett being 4@60mm, I can’t see the Red Sox going in that direction. 

A number of predictions have Teixeria landing in Boston, but things have been fairly quite. The Globe reported that Theo and Boras met last night to discuss the switch hitter. Angels, Orioles, Nationals and Yankees are also in the hunt. I still don’t understand how Teixeria fits into the Red Sox lineup short term, I’ve never been a huge fan of moves that predicate additional moves.  The more moving parts, the more risk.

No news on the catching front, though I believe the Reds and Tigers picking up catchers may have tightened the market for Varitek, making…

Locking up the Li’l Guy

It was just a couple years ago when I was disappointed that the Red Sox picked Pedroia, a seemingly very low ceiling player, in the 2nd round of the 04 draft. And I was just looking back at some of the posts about the early drafts, including 04, which focused on polished college guys, and how that might make the team miss out on some superstars. And here we are, a few years later, and I’m really happy that they got him to sign away his next 6 years for $40.5 mil. (It might be fun if anyone can dig up BTF reactions to his drafting, doubts about him, and comments that at the time seemed fanboyish.)

I heard on the radio that this was a 6 year deal and I guessed that it would be for $50 mil--$40 mil is a very nice deal for the Sox. Although players are theoretically supposed to give up some cash in these deals in return for the security, they never seem to. I took a look at CAIRO (because it’s available and about as good as anything else) to see just how much Pedroia was leaving on the table. It puts him at…

Let’s Get Kerry Wood

Kerry Wood--66.3 IP, 54 H, 84 K, 18 BB, 3 HR, 3.26 ERA. He’s a big injury risk but when he’s healthy he’s got top-of-the-rotation quality stuff coming out of the bullpen. See if he’ll bite on a short deal to set up for Papelbon. He would be an excellent risk. 

ALCS Game 7: It’s All Over

A great comeback that falls just short. The Red Sox just couldn’t push across some runs when they needed to in this game. It was bound to happen one of these years. 

ALCS Game 6: Beckett Bounces Back

Josh Beckett met the challenge of throwing a good game without his best stuff. 5 IP, 2 R is more than I expected of him. The pen then held the line while we got a surprising boost from Varitek. A great game and now let’s look forward to another exciting game 7.

One scary thing: Papelbon does not look like his normal dominant self. He faked it pretty well but I’m concerned.

ALCS Game 5: Well, it’s all ov… OH MY GOD!

I was ready to give up on this one in about the 5th. It was just starting to look too much like a repeat of earlier games from this series. Papi’s HR seemed to open the flood gates and Tampa Bay’s defense chipped in did their part. Two big hits from Drew as well.

I’m tired so I don’t have much else to say. You guys fill in the thread with interesting quips and whatnot. w00t! as the kids say. 

ALCS Game 4: Tampa Bay Crushes

There’s not too much to say about this game. Wakefield did not have it and the Rays really took advantage. One interesting contrast between these two teams that was illustrated tonight: health. Crawford and Longoria returned from injuries and were just awesome tonight. The Red Sox injured players are either out (Lowell) or don’t look themselves (Ortiz, Drew, and Beckett). Part of this is just lousy timing but another part is probably due to the Red Sox being older and generally more injury prone.

Just because Boston has twice come back after being down 2 or more in the past 4 ALCS, it doesn’t mean they will this time. I feel fairly good about Dice-K in game 5, and Lester in game 6. But a) you’ve got to win both and b) even if you do, you’ve got to figure out something in game 7.

It will be fun to have an extra day to stew about this. 

ALCS Game 3: We’ve Got Them Right Where We Want Them!

Here we go again, another ALCS, another deficit. Today’s game was pretty bad but not nearly as tough to deal with as last night’s. It was just a good old fashioned butt kicking. It was disappointing that they didn’t bother to pinch hit for Cora or Varitek late in the game, and it was a real bummer that Cora didn’t move up to 2nd the poor throw Baldelli. But they were already down 5-1, so why bother trying to come back.

One of these years, falling behind in the ALCS is going to burn the Red Sox. Hope it’s not this year! 

ALCS Game 2: That Was Excruciating

The legend of Josh Beckett, invincible post-season pitcher is dead. The myth of Terry Francona, post-season genius is dead. David Ortiz: clutch god of the post season, on life support. What a tough, tough loss. The choice keep Beckett in the game that long really ruined this game for no good reason.

Big picture is, of course, a little brighter--it’s 1-1 going back to Fenway, so the Sox are in good shape overall. 

ALCS Game 1: Dice Rolls

After a rocky start, Daisuke Matsuzaka pulled himself together and dominated through the 7th inning. His performance was huge, not only for this game, but because he didn’t burn out the pen, which may well be needed to pick up for Josh Beckett tomorrow. Bringing him out for the 8th after a long layoff and a tight 7th and 107 pitches didn’t seem like such a hot idea. But it worked out. Also, the offense couldn’t seem to quite get on track in this game, but luckily they didn’t have to. 

Sox Headed to ALCS to Face Tampa!

This was a much better series than the previous Angels/Red Sox ALDS’s. A very exciting ending after a hard-fought game.

Boston Heads Home Up 2-0

Wow, that was an exciting game. Although the Red Sox should have been happy with a split, it would have been pretty awful to have lost this one after leading 5-1 earlier. I thought that Dice pitched well and got a little bad luck. I really didn’t like Francona’s handling of the pen tonight at all. He left Masterson in when you could tell he had awful control. He probably should have been pulled in the 7th, but apparently Delcarmen is never to be trusted ever again. When Masterson came out for the 8th, I figured it was so that he could pitch to Figgings, Lopez to Anderson, then Pap to finish it. But when Pap came on with none out, it begged the question: “If you’re willing to use him for 2 IP, why not go to him right away?” Drew made that academic.

--Funny thing about the 9th--I was sure that Papi’s ball was a HR and thought Drew’s was a flyout.

--Great to see Bay coming through already.

--K-Rod looked absolutely terrible. Just amazingly awful. Did they overwork him

--As the Red Sox return to Boston, they’re obviously in great shape.

ALDS Preview: Boston vs. LA

I could go into a great deal of detail on this, but I don’t think it’s all that necessary. These are two very good teams with the Angels winning five more games than the Red Sox and the Red Sox putting up a more impressive run differential. Both have strong rotations, good pens (edge to the Angels), and good lineups (edge Boston). Overall, a fairly even matchup. There are two factors in LA’s favor, though. The first is homefield advantage. The Angels were 50-31 at home and the same on the road but the Red Sox 56-25 at home vs. 39-42 on the road. That makes home-field advantage a big plus for the Angels. The second is health. Josh Beckett, JD Drew, and Mike Lowell are all question marks. Meanwhile, LA is healthy and ready to go. That’s another point in LA’s favor.

I suppose that history favors the Red Sox, as they have won their last 9 playoffs games against this franchise. And they have traditionally hit John Lackey, who they will face twice, quite well. But these are the sort of things that might well be flukes. Overall though, you have to call the Angels the favorites to come…

No Beckett for ALDS?

Per this SOSH thread, Steve Buckley said on NESN that Beckett has an oblique injury and might not be available for the ALDS. I’m not sure what the proper response to this news is, but I think “AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!” might cover it. 

Milestone Watch

Just wanted to make a quick post about fun stats to keep an eye on as the season winds down.

--Pedroia has a couple of interesting things going on. He may still have a shot at the batting title, but it’s a slim one. He’s at .325, but as I write this Mauer is 3-3 tonight and up to .331. He’s currently got 211 hits, 4 ahead of Ichiro. He’s tops in runs at 118--10 ahead of Granderson. His 54 doubles are three more than Roberts. It’s also one of the highest totals for a 2B. Gehringer had 60, Herman had 57 twice, and Biggio had 56. Pedroia could work his way up to a tie for 2nd.

--Papelbon’s 08 looks almost exactly like his 06. Okajima is repeating his 07.

--Jacoby Ellsbury has been stuck on 49 steals for a long time. I’d love to see him get 50. The team record held by Tommy Harper, 54, will have to wait at least another year.

--Dice-K is 18-2 and set to throw one more time. I don’t think any pitcher has ever been 19-2.

--Kevin Cash is hitting about as well as Jason Varitek. 

Clinch!

The Red Sox finally clinched a postseason berth with their 92nd win. It’s satisfying even if a bit short of the goal of a division title. This year more than any other has been a testament to the importance of depth. After losing major time from Schilling, Dice, Beckett, Lowell, Ortiz, and Lugo, and losing some time from many other starters, the Sox were able to remain a contender because they had players like Casey, Lowrie, Bowden, Masterson, and others ready to step in and contribute. Another good regular season has run its course in Boston. On to the postseason and let’s win there!

Postseason Roster

It looks like the Red Sox are going to make it to the postseason, if only as the stinking wild-card team. This brings up the question of how the post-season roster shakes out. In the first round, they’ll probably need four starters, and I think the 4th starter is the most interesting question. It comes down to Wakefield or Byrd. Based on their performance this year as well as how they’ve done over their careers, I have to take Wakefield. The only reason I could see for leaning the other way would be to get Varitek in the lineup. Conversely, having Byrd rather than Wake as the long man means you won’t have to juggle catchers mid-game.

I’m sure there are some other choices that you’ll want to discuss as well.