You’re telling me there’s a salary cap in the new CBA?

I’ve complained in a few places about the Red Sox ownership not being willing to spend a little over the luxury tax threshold to complete this roster.  I could rehearse here how offering David Ortiz arbitration is a very questionable decision if you’re treating the luxury tax threshold as a hard cap, but I’d rather talk about that hard cap in the first place.  Why are the Sox, who have previously treated the luxury tax threshold as a guideline, now acting as if their payroll is ...

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A Crap Trade

Tonight, in a move I really didn’t think would happen, the Red Sox gave away Marco Scutaro for nothing.  Marco Scutaro is under contract for $6M for next season.  This is his dumber-than-Marcel projection:

+3 Bat +1 Run +19 Rep +6 Pos -1 Def = +28 RAR

That’s a $14M player.  So, the Sox gave away an $8M bargain for Clayton Mortensen.  In conclusion: ugh. 

Clearly, what’s going on is that the Sox have a hard payroll limit, and they decided that they need to save money at shortstop in ...

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The Plan and the Payroll

The Red Sox luxury tax payroll currently stands at about $130M.  When you add in projected arbitration awards for Ortiz, Ellsbury, Saltalamacchia, Bard, Bailey, and the bench players, that leaves the Red Sox with little to no room remaining under the luxury tax threshold.  As I’ve argued, the Red Sox offseason should be understood as a specifically structured and cleverly executed plan.  They bolstered the rotation by emptying the bullpen, and then they filled the bullpen by trading MLB-ready ...

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Reddick / Bailey Trade: Rapid Reaction

This looks like a trade where both players involved may be significantly worse than they’re perceived.  Josh Reddick was a useful regular last year, but his overall track record remains terrible, and ZiPS projects him as basically a replacement level RF with an 85 OPS+.  Andrew Bailey is a fabulous pitcher when healthy (career 2.07 ERA and 2.74 FIP), but he’s pitched a full season of major league ball only once in three tries.  Any projection that incorporates past playing time is going to ...

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I have no idea what the Sox are going to do next

The first round of the offseason is nearly over.  For the Red Sox it is over – the one first tier FA left is Prince Fielder, and he’s obviously not headed our way.  I had hoped the Red Sox would find the money to go after Darvish or Wilson, and Wilson’s below-market deal has left every team in need of pitching (read: every team) wishing they’d been involved.  Darvish is looking at 6/110 or more, though, so I don’t have a problem with the Red Sox passing on him.

The second-tier FA ...

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The Closing Window

The Red Sox entered the offseason with just three acceptable starting pitchers and two good relievers under contract.  The primary goal of the offseason for Ben Cherington was to acquire pitching.  It is now mid-December, and the most significant pitching acquisition by the Boston Red Sox has been the signing of Jesse Carlson to a non-guaranteed contract.  Good free agent targets – starters like CJ Wilson and Mark Buehrle, relievers like Heath Bell, Latroy Hawkins, and Frank Francisco – ...

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New Manager Likes to Do Stuff

Bobby Valentine is going to be the new Red Sox manager, pending agreement on a contract.  I’m generally happy about this.  It’s not just that Valentine has a good record as a manager, but more that he’s got upside.  A manager like Valentine could win you a handful of games – and he’s going to try to win those games.  Most statistically-inclined clubs have opted for managers who will carry out competently the directives of the front office.  This option limits outcomes on both the ...

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What going on down Jersey St?

In the past two days, things seem to have gotten a bit weird.  The managerial search had been progressing in its normal, boring way.  Cherington had interviewed normal, boring candidates like Dale Sveum and Pete Mackanin and Torey Lovullo.  They were looking for a Francona clone, a good company man who will carry out the directives of management, handle the media well, and keep the players happy. 

Now it’s reported that Bobby Valentine is a leading candidate.  There are conflicting reports ...

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The Dumber-than-Marcels: Free Agent Starters

My first run-through of the dumber-than-Marcel projections for position players left me quite skeptical of the top-line free agents.  Now I’ve done the pitchers, my sense is that once again it’s the middle-class free agents who will offer better value. 

These projections are based on a 3/2/1/2 regressed weighted average of pitcher value stats, a 50-50 split of Fangraphs and CHONE numbers.  It’s a half-FIP, half-RA projection.  In the position player projections, I included a $ value ...

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You Will Never See Anything Like Him Again: Jonathan Papelbon

I’m not saying that the Red Sox cannot replace Jonathan Papelbon’s production going forward, but I am saying that what he did for them (us) was incredible. With a 197 ERA+ for his career, a 1.00 ERA in the playoffs, Paps was just about as close to perfect for the Sox as a closer can be. Add to that the fake intense face, the dancing, the goofy Ricky Bobby persona, and you’ve got one of the most memorable Red Sox ever. Thanks for the memories.

The Dumber-than-Marcels: Free Agent Hitters

Last offseason I ran a short analysis of the available FA hitters and I concluded that the Red Sox should go after exactly none of them. Adrian Beltre looked like the one positional FA who would be a good gamble. I ended up getting talked into Carl Crawford over the remainder of the offseason, and that turned out less than well. I did, at the time, make a case against Jayson Werth that I still feel pretty good about. Given that we have three data points, sufficient to demonstrate that this ...Read More...

Statements from the Boston Red Sox, Jon Lester, Josh Beckett, John Lackey, and Terry Francona | redsox.com: Official Info

Tomorrow anonymous sources will report about satanic rituals in the bullpen. YOU HEARD IT HERE FIRST!!!

PRESIDENT/CEO LARRY LUCCHINO ON BEHALF OF THE BOSTON RED SOX: "Tonight our organization has heard directly from Jon, Josh, John, and former manager Terry Francona. Each has assured us that the allegation that surfaced today about drinking in the dugout during games in 2011 is false, and we accept their statements as honest and factual. "As we continue our internal examination to fully ...

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In which analysis is outsourced

I had been playing around with some different back-of-the-envelope projection methods for Yu Darvish, and then I found out that SG over at the Replacement Level Yankee Weblog had actually done all of that work already, and better. The key point to be made, with regard to Darvish, is just how much better he was in NPB than Matsuzaka. These were Matsuzaka's ERA numbers in his last four seasons in NPB: 2.83, 2.90, 2.30, 2.13 Pretty damn good, right? And those were his age 22-25 seasons. ...Read More...

Twitter / @TBrownYahoo: Ben Cherington has been to named GM

Ben Cherington has been told he'll be next GM of Red Sox, according to Y sources.

The Art Of Winning An (even More) Unfair Game - 09.26.11 - SI Vault

This may have been posted when it first came out but I couldn't find it in our archives. This is especially relevant with Theo heading out the door. The next GM may very well continue the transformation the Red Sox front office has undergone since John Henry purchased the Sox. Then again, maybe he won't. In any event, if you haven't read the article already, you should read it.

One floor below street level on Yawkey Way, in his windowless corner office which looks out upon a bank of cubicles ...

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Theo’s Legacy: 2003 and 2004

As it seems highly likely that Theo Epstein will be leaving the Boston Red Sox in the next few days, I wanted to go back over two of the greatest offseasons a general manager has ever had. Theo Epstein inherited a club in 2003 with a great core of superstars (Pedro, Nomar, and Manny), some good complementary pieces (Damon, Nixon, Varitek, Lowe, Wakefield), and pretty much crap-all else. Most of the club’s payroll was already tied up in their stars, so he needed to fill out a championship ...Read More...

Hot Stove I: Payroll and Roster

Whether you want the Sox to blow it up, bring the boys back for their redemption, or drop big money on top free agents to fix the club, you need to start with an understanding of the club’s current payroll situation. Before 2010, the Red Sox jacked up spending like crazy, and last season they maintained that payroll – if you discount some of the funny business with Gonzalez, they added to it by several million. I think it’s reasonable to expect another payroll in the range of $170M, and ...Read More...

John Henry and Larry Lucchino Talk about the Red Sox September Swoon

Some very interesting comments and ownership insights into the team. Give it a listen.

Red Sox Fans Need to Take a Deeeeeeeep Breath

One phenomena which is quite interesting to me is how most of the analysts calling for Theo's head, and talking about what a flawed team the Red Sox are, are the same people who were talking about how great this team was in the spring and July. People (and by people I include the Red Sox ownership) need to relax and stay the course with this front office. There are decisions in life, unfortunately, where you do everything right in preparation and consideration, but the outcome disappoints. ...Read More...

Not so ‘Free’ Agency

I stole this link from Philly over on SOSH: This BA article, which measures how homegrown each playoff team is, includes a comparison of the Red Sox and Yankees free-agent signings. The results are... not pretty. The whole thing is worth reading, but the takeaway is: in 2011, the Red Sox $67 million for free agent players and got back 2 (2!) WAR. That number is particularly friendly in that a) it doesn't count Dice-K (because he wasn't a free agent, per se?) and b) it uses $14 mil. for ...Read More...

Thank You Terry Francona

It appears that, per NESN, Terry Francona is out as the manager of the Boston Red Sox. Someone had suggested that we have a "Thank You Terry Francona" thread and that sounds like a good idea. Thanks Terry, you were at the helm during the most successful period for the Red Sox during my lifetime. It couldn't have been easy, and for whatever small criticism I might have had over the years, you deserve the credit for those accomplishments. Good luck in whatever you choose to do next. Have at it.

In which rumors are mongered

Let’s collect all the rumors about the Red Sox clubhouse. After yesterday’s press conference, it is now clear that interpersonal breakdowns, conflicts over authority, and general chaos in the clubhouse were important causes of the recent unpleasantness. At the very least, both Epstein and Francona espoused the view that clubhouse tensions lead to games lost. I accept that not everyone finds this stuff fascinating, but I really do. And I know that we’ll never achieve certain ...Read More...

Trader Theo and the Redemption Plan

I see two basic directions that this offseason could take for the Red Sox. You can basically bring back everyone, trusting in the team’s third-order winning percentage and boosting them with better depth and perhaps new coaching and training staffs. If you don’t want this same basic club back, but you do want to compete for the AL East next year, that will require major, blockbuster trades. The Redemption Plan is pretty simple. You give these players a chance to redeem themselves. The ...Read More...

Point / Counterpoint

We must respond with blind, wild rage. Now is not the time for a careful accounting or a half-hearted defense of the men who created this broken team. It is time for rage, and not just any rage, but the pure and blinding rage where you forget your name and what your hands look like. Tear this club the #### down. Terry Francona, gone. Jonathan Papelbon, enjoy your big contract elsewhere, see if they can get you to throw a split-finger to the guy who’s sitting fastball. If any of the big ...Read More...

Game 162

There isn’t a lot you can say about an individual, upcoming baseball game. What will determine tonight’s contest is how well the players play. I hope the Sox play well and the Orioles don’t. The outcome of this game rests somewhat more on the shoulder of the starting pitcher than usual. Not only is Lester pitching on short rest in the biggest game of the season, but he’s pitching in front of a bullpen that is utterly gassed. In September, the Red Sox bullpen has had to cover an ...Read More...

Managers have expiration dates

The monthlong unpleasantness has unified fans against a common enemy – Tito Francona. At this point, with a playoff spot still technically possible for the Red Sox, one can imagine scenarios in which Tito keeps his job, or perhaps even in which he deserves to keep his job. But it’s getting really hard for me to see. He’s lost the clubhouse so entirely, so evidently has no standing to lead this team out of their funk, that I have trouble imagining how he could get it back. Even a team ...Read More...

I learned how to write a Monte Carlo sim in Excel

Who says nothing good came out of the epic Sox collapse of aught-eleven? Here's your data. To make things a little cleaner, I'm not using as many different team quality scenarios. I have the pessimistic scenario, wherein the Sox are a terrible club (.48 ExpWP), and the Rays and Angels are very good (.6 and .57 ExpWP), I have the BPro W3% scenario, where the Sox at .61 lead the Rays and Angels at .57 and .53, and a parity scenario where the Sox at .55 are a bit behind the Rays and Angels at ...Read More...

Errors

I'm of the opinion that the Red Sox have actually gotten tight and have actually been affected by the pressure. As per the post a week ago, I don't think that this means the team is screwed - slumps and choking events can end, human beings can get themselves together, and events can turn out ok. I'm still confident that these are professional baseball players who are likely to play professional baseball well when they take the field. But I think that out on the field, the Red Sox have been ...Read More...

The Red Sox may lose the Wild Card

I don't foresee myself having a lot of time to talk baseball in the next week, so y'all ought to have a thread. The chance of the Red Sox losing the Wild Card to the Rays is now somewhere 15 and 25%, and a lot of it depends on how well the Yankees play in their seven games with the Rays and three with the Sox. Today we are all Yankee fans. So even if the Sox do hang on, this has happened, and it is horrible. Here are the numbers from the old log5 for the remaining schedule spreadsheet. I'm ...Read More...

In which I listen to Theo Epstein’s public statements

Theo gave an interview to WEEI this morning, helpfully transcribed at the Globe Extra Bases blog. I like what he had to say about the losing streak.

On if the bad play becomes contagious throughout the team: "It seems that way. It's hard to tell whether it actually is. It probably is to a small extent and beyond that it's just seems that way when so many things aren't going well. I do think that when you have a run of bad starting pitching, it does obviously impact the bullpen, and has a ...

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