Jon Lester: Red Sox Staff Ace?

What Jon Lester’s been doing has been far beyond my expectations or even hopes. 9th in the league in ERA. 6th in PRC. 4th in IP. And even 10th in groundball percentage. And since late April, he’s been pretty unstoppable.

And Lester really came through last night with the Red Sox desperate for a win after their embarrassment in Tampa Bay. A night after the Red Sox looked downright pathetic, they looked like a completely different team.

It makes me think that all the talk that Farrell thinks Lester’s an elite pitcher who just needed to recover a bit more from cancer might actually be legit. 

What to Do with Masterson and Buchholz

Justin Masterson had a nice little run when he first came up, and he’s certainly shown a fair amount of poise for a rookie. But looking at his numbers, he just hasn’t pitched that well overall as a Major Leaguer:

48 IP, 37 K, 24 BB, 8 HR.

He’s got a very nice 51.5% groundball percentage and that’s helped to keep his ERA down to 3.75. But those 8 HRs are not the sign of a guy who’s keeping the ball down consistently. His xFIP of 4.34 and his actual FIP is 5.46.

Meanwhile, there’s the forgotten man, Clay Buchholz toiling in AAA: 38.2 IP, 38 K, 15 BB, 2 HR, 1.63 ERA. That’s including a couple of rehab starts.

The time is coming soon, if it hasn’t come already, for Buc to be moved back into Boston’s rotation. Masterson might be a nice addition to the bullpen. 

Minor League Thread: Zink in the Pink

Charlie Zink--what a story. He pitched for Luis Tiant at the Savannah College of Art and Design before signing with Boston as an undrafted free agent in 2002. He’s been up and down as over the past 6 years, but seems to really have put things together in 08. In AAA Pawtucket, he’s got 60 K, 29 BB, and 4 HR allowed in 96.2 IP. His 2.33 ERA and 69 hit allowed are also impressive. Unlike many other knuckleballers, Zink can throw other pitches that resemble major league stuff. According to Sox Prospects, he’s got a mid-80s fastball and cutter too. If it weren’t for the Red Sox impressive depth at starting pitcher, we’d probably be seeing the 28-year-old working his magic every fifth day in Boston. 

Jacoby Ellsbury, Kenny Lofton, and Steals

I’ve mentioned several times in this space my belief that Kenny Lofton represents a good upside comparison for Jacoby Ellsbury. As the 2008 season approaches the midway mark, that comparison is looking very good, especially in stolen bases, where Ellsbury is taking a run at Lofton’s AL rookie record. Based on Ellsbury’s current stats, here’s how his projection for the season compares to Kenny Lofton’s rookie season (Lofton was a year older):

Ellsbury: 143 g, 498 AB, 109 R, 17 2b, 6 3b, 11 HR, 71 SB, 8 CS, 59 BB, 74 K, 278/358/397, 100 OPS+
Lofton: 148 g, 576 AB, 96 R, 15 2b, 8 3b, 5 HR,66 SB, 12 CS, 68 BB, 54 K, 285/362/365, 106 OPS+

Lofton looks to have a slight advantage in OPS+ and K/BB, while Ellsbury has him beat in power and age. Overall, still a very good comp. Ellsbury looks on his way to a Hall of Good career, albeit one in which you’re constantly signing 1-year deals (or not getting signed at all) and getting traded everywhere, including Japan. 

Minor League Thread: Draft Time

The draft is coming up on June 5 and the Red Sox will likely draft a whole bunch of players who either go on to the Majors or don’t. They will be picking 30th in each round, with bonus picks at 45th (as compensation for “losing” Eric Gagne), and at 85th (for failing to sign 2nd rounder Hunter Morris last year).

That’s about the extent of the analysis that I can offer on this subject. Let’s hope that Philly and Temple stop by soon and give us their takes. 

Ortiz out “at least a month”

I didn’t quite get what the exact injury is--I’m away from my Tivo--but NESN is reporting David Ortiz has a partial tear of a wrist tendon and will be out “at least a month.” This isn’t good news for the Sox. Main beneficiaries should be Coco and Casey. 

Yin and Yang and All That Junk

It seems like just a couple weeks ago (because it was) that all the talk in baseball was that the Red Sox’ young starters were outshining and embarassing their Yankee counterparts. Buchholz was putting up nice numbers and Lester, after a shaky start, had rebounded and threw a thrilling no hitter. Meanwhile, Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy were both winless and struggling mightily to get out of the 4th inning. Fast forward a bit and Buc is in AAA after getting hurt and having a couple lousy rehab starts, and Lester has kept pitching well but has returned to his medicore peripherals. In the Bronx, Darrell Rasner has replaced Hughes and pitched very well and the frightening Joba Chamberlain is about to take over for Kennedy in the rotation. In another couple weeks, we could be saying that Rasner and Joba are the best young 1-2 punch between the two teams. Or we could be saying that of Lester and Buc. Or Chamberlain and Hughes. Or Masterson and Lester. The fate of young pitchers turns on a dime. And as a result, I’m betting that the rest of the season will be quite the roller coaster ride.

(Side note: None of…

Minor League Thread: Adam Mills Still Thinks He’s a Prospect

After dominating college hitting in 07 with a 1.01 ERA, Adam Mills had to wait until the 8th round to hear his name called in the Major League draft. He quickly signed and pitched about as well as you could for Lowell in the Penn League to finish out the year, although 3 HR in 35 IP was a bit poor. That seemingly did little to improve opinions of him, as at the start of 08, the Red Sox sent him to the pitching Siberia known as Lancaster. Not to worry, though, because after a rough start, Mills has pulled things together and is putting together a nice little year. Mills has a very handsome 4.10 ERA and has allowed only 4 HR in 52.2 IP this season. He has also only walked 10 batters, but he’s given up a frightening 60 hits and gotten only 30 Ks. Those last two numbers are a bit of a concern, but I’m inclined to give the benefit of the doubt to any pitcher who can get good results in that bandbox.

At age 23, Mills really needed to do well at A+ and move on to AA in short order (by next season…

The Future of Manny

Manny Ramirez got off to a torrid start, and it appeared that his intense offseason work had helped him return to his former greatness. But even while he was hitting well, Manny was striking out more and walking less than he had in the past. Now, those problems seem to have caught up to him. Manny’s now back around the decreased level he was at last year:

07: .296 .388 .493
08: .280 .364 .489

That’s an awfully pedestrian line in his last ~800 PA. The good news is that Manny’s defense looks like it has improved a bit this year. But with Abreu, Dunn, and Burrell out there for the taking, it doesn’t look like a slam dunk that they will pick up Manny’s $20 mil. option.

Minor League Thread: That Other B Guy

So, when are we going to start talking about Michael Bowden as a top pitching prospect? As a 20-year-old last year, he dominated high-A before moving to AA, where he held his own. This year, he seems to have adjusted quite well to his new surroundings. 47.2 IP, 35 H, 2 HR, 14 BB, 48 K, 2.83 ERA. All this at the young age of 21. Word is that is stuff isn’t all that impressive, but the results sort of speak for themselves.

Other interesting players at AA:

--Jeff Corsaletti has always had a good eye, but this year he’s showing some power and moderate contact/avg. ability. He’s hitting 283/414/483. If he’s a legit CF defender, he may have some sort of brief MLB career.

--Zach Daeges looking like a young Wade Boggs: 346/505/526 with 26 BB and 13 K in 78 ABs.

--Undrafted Huge Lefty Hunter Jones has looked very tough in relief: 22.2 IP, 21 H, 0 HR, 4 BB, 26 K, 1.19 ERA. He was promoted to Pawtucket on 5/15.

--Kris Johnson and Dustin Richardson have been pretty mediocre.

--Dan Bard was skipped from low A to AA, rather than being sent to the A+ team on Mars.…

Try to Enjoy This

It’s easy to forget now, but things didn’t always go this well for the Red Sox. Seems like just a few short years ago, the Red Sox weren’t coming back from 0-3 holes, winning World Series, throwing no-hitters, and seeing numerous exciting young players come up to the big league team. Jon Lester’s no-hitter tonight is just one of many moments over the past few years that we Red Sox fans should feel thankful for. It’s probably a good time to take a step back and just enjoy it.

Of course, his pitch count was awfully high…

The Disincentive for the Red Sox to Lock Up Their Young Players

In the past month or so, some of baseball’s most prominent young players have been locked up to longterm deals. The Rays lsigned Evan Longoria shortly after his Major League debut. A few days ago, they extended Scott Kazmir for a very tidy little sum of 3 years/$28 mil (ensuring many more frustrating games for the Red Sox). There was also a 6 year/$70 mil deal for Hanley Ramirez. And today, the Brewers announced an eight-year deal with last year’s NL Rookie of the Year, Ryan Braun.

Hey, the Red Sox have a bunch of good young players. Why are they not locking them up to deals before they get expensive. How about an eight-year deal for our ROY, Dustin Pedroia? Or for that kooky Jonathan Papelbon fella?

There are many possible reasons that Boston might not want to lock up its youngsters longterm, but I think one stands out above the rest: the luxury tax. The luxury tax salary limit is based on the average annual value (AAV) of contracts, and locking up pre-arb players longterm greatly increases their AAV. To small payroll teams like Milwaukee and Florida, this is no big deal. They’re never coming close to the limit,…

Minor League Thread: Josh Reddick vs. Lars Anderson

There seems to be a pretty wide consensus that Lars Anderson is a better prospect than Josh Reddick, but I wonder if it’s time for that to change. Prior to the season, Sickels had Lars as #4 in the Sox system, with a B+, and Reddick as #10, with a B-. BA had them slotted the same. Sox Prospects also had Lars #4, and only recently moved Reddick up to #7.

But let’s take a look at what each of these guys has done. Last year, both played most of the year in Greenville. Here’s how they hit:

Lars in A: .288 .385 .443, 71 BB, 112 K in 458 ABs.
Lars in A+ : .343 .489 .486, 11 BB, 9 K in 35 ABs.
Reddick in A: .306 .352 .531, 26 BB, 51 K in 369 ABs.

Now Reddick’s baseball age is 1 year above Lars’s, but he’s actually only 7 months older. Consider also that Lars is a firstbasemen (considered a good one), but that Reddick is an outfielder with reportedly good range who had 19 (!) assists in 94 games last year. There was a good argument to be made that Reddick was already surpassing Lars after 07.…

Coco off to a monster start!

That headline may sound like a bit of an exaggeration. His gaudy .315 average masks a pretty mediocre .722 OPS (96 OPS+). But as I documented last year around this time, Coco has always been a slow starter. Consider these OPS:

Mar/April 2004: .211 .262 .316
Mar/April 2005: .253 .302 .354
Mar/April 2006: injured
Mar/April 2007: .235 .274 .338
YTD for 2008: .315 .338 .384

If Coco follows his usual pattern of improving greatly as the weather warms up, he’ll have a pretty nice year. If you combine his line thus far in 08 with what he did from May 10 to the end of the season last year, he’d end up around 285/340/395. He seems to have completely lost his power but that’s a very tidy line for a ++ defensive CF.

Farnsworth’s Suspension for Throwing Behind Manny’s Head Reduced from 3 Games to 0*

In a ridiculous decision today, an arbitrator reduced Kyle Farnsworth’s suspension from 3 games to 1 game. This was an idiotic decision on a number of levels:

First off, anyone who pays attention to baseball knows that a 1-game suspension will have almost no effect on a middle reliever. Having a reliever unavailable for one day means that he’ll be more able and ready to pitch the next day. A 3-day suspension is really the minimum suspension that has really works as a punishment for a reliever. Anything shorter is like suspending a starter for the 4 games between his starts.

Second, Farnsworth didn’t just drill someone in the ribs. He threw behind his head, a spot that is universally considered especially dangerous because players tend to back away on inside pitches.

Third, Farnsworth’s (and the Yankees’) defense was apparently that he slipped during his delivery. Looking at the context in which it happened and how it looked on video tape, this is very hard to believe. It is so hard to believe, in fact, that if you take Farnsworth at his word, it is hard to imagine ever suspending anyone for throwing at a batter.

Fourth, IF you do take…

Minor League Thread: Mike Jones

Mike Jones was a draft and follow guy out of Arizona Western JC who the Sox signed in 2005. He has been putting up an unremarkable record for the past few years, while being old for the levels he’s been playing at. He had a nice looking .340 .434 .432 line at Lowell before being promoted. But at age 22, that wasn’t all that great. This year, Jones has started the year on fire, hitting .412/.470/.588 at Greenville. must be a lot of fun to watch.

But still, Jones is a 23-year-old playing in A ball. And he’s a 1B, listed at 6-3, 260. He’s fun but he’s no Jeff Natale. 

That Was Brilliant

Young pitcher has an excellent game through 7, up around 100 pitches. It’s debatable whether you leave him in to start the 8th. But once he puts the tying run on base, you have to pull him. He’s in uncharted territory, pitch-count wise. You’ve got your 2 best relievers warm and ready to go. But Francona wasn’t satisfied until the lead was gone. Even then, Buc stayed in for another batter, just in case his pitch count wasn’t high enough.

An extra-innings game followed by a 1-run game in the 8th and your best two relievers don’t appear in either. As my friend often says, “This is why the Red Sox will never win 100 games under Francona.”

Pitchers Go Down, So Pitchers Come Up

First Beckett went down. Then Dice-K. This has led to starts by David Pauley, then by Lester on 3 days rest. We also got to see a bit of Hansen, who looked reasonably promising.

The good news is that we’ll get to see Justin Masterson’s debut in tomorrow’s game. And Masterson’s certainly made a case for himself at AA: 19 IP, 14 H, 2 ER, 0 HR, 5 BB, and 23 K. Also he’s got a 3.57 GO/AO ratio. Should be fun to see this promising young player join the Sox kiddie corps. 

What to Make of Gammo’s Coco to the Cubs Rumor

According to Gammons on Baseball Tonight last night, the Cubs are interested in acquiring Coco Crisp to play center. He says the deal could get done soon and that it would be for Gallagher + another prospect. Is there any chance that this is legit? Could it bring back golden boy Matt Murton? Is Sox Therapy back?

Preseason Minor League Thread

Hey, how about those minor leagues! They sure are interesting this time of year. What about that guy who got sent down? He should’ve stayed up! And then there was the guy who’s still up--that guy sucks. Send him down!

Consider this the TempleU-requested catch-all minor league thread.

I love that dirty water: 1-0 First place, half a game up.

6-5 win over the A’s in 10 from Tokyo.

Woke up at 5:15. went for a run, showered up and watched the Sox. The only thing that took away from the morning, was that they couldn’t get it done in under 3 hours as I had to head to work.

Game Chat

Number 3 Star:Dice - K: Gutty but ugly performance. We saw the Dice we saw a little too much of last year, a little adversity and he starts to fold. Instead of completely folding he battled, despite not having command or mph’er on his heater. His off-speed stuff really settled in during the 3rd, 4th and 5th. Could have gone to a number of players, but considering the locale of the game I had to give him the edge.

Number 2 Star Brandon Moss: Late injury replacement for J.D. “Nancy” Drew whose back went out, prior to the game. Brandon, trying to carve out a roll for himself showed good plate coverage and took his licks including a the game tying closer off Street in the top of the 9th.

Number 1 Star: Manny - 2 for 4, with four base knocks including the go ahead in the 10th.…

It’s Alright Ma, They Were only Bleeding

I’m skeptical when I hear, after the fact, that a player only struggled because of an undisclosed injury. Players deal with nagging injuries all the time and we never hear about it. But it’s the sort of information that is often used to wipe away an off year. I have to admit that, though, I’ve had quite a different reaction to the news that both Coco Crisp and Julio Lugo have been suffering through serious ailments in their time with the Red Sox. Crisp, among other things, was hindered in his pre-2007 workouts while recovering from his finger surgery and reportedly couldn’t find his swing early last season. Similarly, an offseason parasite problem (yuck) is said to have sapped Lugo of his strength for much of 2007.

If these guys had just had off years, I would probably dismiss this talk as sort of revisionist history. But these two were so brutally bad for such long periods of time that such explanations not only seem plausible, but likely. And if these guys really are healthy (Coco’s already had some injury concerns this year), it makes me pretty optimistic about what 2008 will hold for them. Does this make me the biggest…

Are There Any Real Questions Going into Spring Training?

Well, spring has arrived in the baseball world, with pitchers and catchers reporting for duty. On most teams in most years, this means that at least one or two key positions, a rotation slot or two, and perhaps a few bullpen roles are up for grabs. But the 08 Red Sox are somewhat of an exception. They’ve brought back an almost identical team to last year, a year in which they won the World Series (in case you’ve forgotten). There are no likely changes in the infield. The rotation has a recent opening, but it seems pretty much a lock that Buchholz and Tavarez will fill the spot. It hardly seems like a battle--more like a job-share.

The bullpen seems fairly set as well, although there a few kinks to iron out. Papelbon and Okajima will slot in as the closer/#1 setup tandem. Snyder will mop up and one of Tavarez/Buchholz will serve as an additional long man. A couple of interesting non-prospect arms--like Gronkiewicz, Corey, and Breslow--will try to snag one of the remaining three slots, but they’ll probably be beaten out by everyone’s favorite punching bag, Javier Lopez. The last 2 of those spots go to Delcarmen and Timlin.…

Now That We Know the Price…

Well, we now know what it would have taken to sign Johan Santana: 7/$150 mil. With that in mind, do you think he was worth Ellsbury/Masterson/Lowrie/mystery prospect? I know the rule of thumb is that when there’s a top talent available, you get him. But for me, this was beyond the price I would be willing to pay. I could have stomached a 5-year deal by just assuming that you’d be overpaying for a year of the deal. But for 7 years at premium prices, I think you pass and see what you can do with your youngsters (maybe keep them or deal them for a player who’s locked up cheap a little longer than Johan was). 

Is an Ellsbury/Coco Deal on the Horizon?

With Johan Santana apparently headed for Queens, the Red Sox no longer need to hang on to both Jacoby Elllsbury and Coco Crisp. Does this mean that one of them will soon be on the way out of town? I forget who, but someone keeps mentioning the ChiSox as a possible partner, being as they need a CF and could part with Carlos Quentin. I’m kind of stumped otherwise, although maybe the Dodgers will do something foolish. I do, however, think one of these guys will be on the move before the season starts, as both are at least capable starters and could bring back value in other spots.

Sidenote: The Red Sox picked up David Aardsma from Chicago for Willy Mota and Miguel Socolovich. The Sox didn’t give up much and he had nice K rates in AAA and MLB last year, so it seems pretty reasonable.

Tick, Tick, Tick…

Well, it’s Martin Luther King Day weekend, that time of the offseason when you perk up and say to yourself: “Hey, spring training is coming next month. Have the Red Sox done what they need to do to prepare for next season?” My general sense is that yes, they’ve done fine. They had no gaping holes once they re-signed Lowell and Schilling, and the team projects to be one of the top in the AL. Still, there are a few questions left unanswered:

1. Obviously Johan Santana is still up in the air. It appears unlikely that the Sox will budge from the current offer, but it’s still unclear whether that will be sufficient.

2. The lack closure on Johan has left the Red Sox with one too many starting CFs. They can’t deal either of these guys until they know what’s happening with Santana. And now pretty much everyone who was looking for a CF has got one. Normally, this sort of redundancy isn’t a problem, but the Sox have not shown a good ability to work in a fourth outfielder to get him regular playing time. That would mean wasting Ellsbury or Crisp.

3. Is the bullpen a finished…

In Manny’s Defense

Our old friend SG* over at RLYW kept track of zone rating numbers each day of 2007, providing us with some fascinating information on Manny Ramirez’s defense. If you recall, we left off last time with me claiming that Manny’s defense was so bad that it actually destabilized the Middle East, while others felt that it was a bit closer to average. Here’s what SG found about how Manny played in Fenway vs. on the road:

Stadium G GS Ch INN PO A E DP ZR PM Diff RS RS/162
Road 58 58 112 476 94 1 1 0 .830 93 -5 -4 -13
Home 61 61 136 509 86 7 1 0 .618 84 -31 -25 -72

Those last two columns are RS and RS/162, based on Chris Dial’s method for converting raw ZR into run values. So in 2007, Manny was -13 runs/162 on the road and -72/162 at home. We can see the pretty obvious effect of the weird scoring at Fenway, wherein the ZR guys, for some crazy reason, count balls off the wall as being in a player’s zone. The data above suggests that Manny is a lot closer to the -10 to -15 defender that…

Rethinking the Usage of the Japanese Pitchers

Looking forward to the 2008 season, I am wondering how usage patterns for Hideki Okajima and Daisuke Matsuzaka might change from last year. In 2007, both pitchers were used quite heavily early in the season.

In a recent interview, Okajima even said that there were times when he dreaded getting the call to come into the game because he was so tired. That’s not surprising, given that he threw 62.1 IP before September started, after not topping 56 IP over the previous 5 years in Japan. I’d look for him to get something like the Papelbon treatment in 08.

Dice-K was also worked very hard early in the season before struggling mightily down the stretch. Between May 30 and July 3, he had the following pitch counts: 106, 130, 120, 112, 126, 113, 122. During that time, many here (including me) speculated that the team must have decided that Matsuzaka thrived under heavier workloads. And when that stretch ended Matsuzaka had a 3.53 ERA and was looking great. But for the rest of the season, he put up a 5.50 ERA and had horrible command.

Now it’s always too easy to just look at some high pitch counts and decide that…

A Look Back on JD Drew

Sorry for the lack of entries lately. I’ve been working on some other projects lately, and frankly, there’s just not a whole lot going on with the Red Sox that interests me. No relievers signed, no backup catcher action, no ridding of Tavarez, and no big trade for Johan. To quote Lou Reed, “there’s nothing goin’ on here at all.”

One thing that I find pretty interesting this year is how J.D. Drew turned out to be exactly the opposite of what conventional wisdom said he would be. Remember what Drew was supposed to be according to conventional wisdom* when he came to the Sox? He was going to put up pretty numbers, sure. But he wouldn’t stay healthy enough to be in the lineup, and in the big moment, he was going to wilt on the big Boston stage.

But what actually happened? Drew’s numbers were not pretty at all. His 796 OPS was good for only a 105 OPS+. But Drew’s best hitting, according to his clutch stats on BR, came in tight games. Then there was the postseason, where he drove in 11 runs in 14 games. This included a grand slam that broke open game 6 of…

Minor League Thread: Sickels Likes Sox Prospects, Not Sox Fans

Sickels has put out his top 20 list for the Red Sox. A couple highlights:

1 Clay Buchholz, RHP, Grade A
2 Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, Grade A-
3 Jed Lowrie, SS, Grade A- (too high? I think he’s an A- as a shortstop, but a B+ as a second baseman. Will he stick at short?)
5 Michael Bowden, RHP, Grade B
7 Nick Hagadone, LHP, Grade B
8 Ryan Kalish, OF, Grade B
16 Reid Engel, OF, Grade C+
20 Bubba Bell, OF, Grade C

I’m a little surprised to hear John trash two big segments of his fan base:

I will admit that posting this makes me nervous, as Red Sox fans are increasingly passionate about their farm system. This is a good thing, obviously. . .however some members of Red Sox nation are starting to get obnoxious, acting, I dare say, like Yankees fans. Watch your hubris, guys and gals.