Sox Therapy

Jon Lester: Red Sox Staff Ace?

What Jon Lester’s been doing has been far beyond my expectations or even hopes. 9th in the league in ERA. 6th in PRC. 4th in IP. And even 10th in groundball percentage. And since late April, he’s been pretty unstoppable.

And Lester really came through last night with the Red Sox desperate for a win after their embarrassment in Tampa Bay. A night after the Red Sox looked downright pathetic, they looked like a completely different team.

It makes me think that all the talk that Farrell thinks Lester’s an elite pitcher who just needed to recover a bit more from cancer might actually be legit.

What to Do with Masterson and Buchholz

Justin Masterson had a nice little run when he first came up, and he’s certainly shown a fair amount of poise for a rookie. But looking at his numbers, he just hasn’t pitched that well overall as a Major Leaguer:

48 IP, 37 K, 24 BB, 8 HR.

He’s got a very nice 51.5% groundball percentage and that’s helped to keep his ERA down to 3.75. But those 8 HRs are not the sign of a guy who’s keeping the ball down consistently. His xFIP of 4.34 and his actual FIP is 5.46.

Meanwhile, there’s the forgotten man, Clay Buchholz toiling in AAA: 38.2 IP, 38 K, 15 BB, 2 HR, 1.63 ERA. That’s including a couple of rehab starts.

The time is coming soon, if it hasn’t come already, for Buc to be moved back into Boston’s rotation. Masterson might be a nice addition to the bullpen.

Minor League Thread: Zink in the Pink

Charlie Zink--what a story. He pitched for Luis Tiant at the Savannah College of Art and Design before signing with Boston as an undrafted free agent in 2002. He’s been up and down as over the past 6 years, but seems to really have put things together in 08. In AAA Pawtucket, he’s got 60 K, 29 BB, and 4 HR allowed in 96.2 IP. His 2.33 ERA and 69 hit allowed are also impressive. Unlike many other knuckleballers, Zink can throw other pitches that resemble major league stuff. According to Sox Prospects, he’s got a mid-80s fastball and cutter too. If it weren’t for the Red Sox impressive depth at starting pitcher, we’d probably be seeing the 28-year-old working his magic every fifth day in Boston.

Jacoby Ellsbury, Kenny Lofton, and Steals

I’ve mentioned several times in this space my belief that Kenny Lofton represents a good upside comparison for Jacoby Ellsbury. As the 2008 season approaches the midway mark, that comparison is looking very good, especially in stolen bases, where Ellsbury is taking a run at Lofton’s AL rookie record. Based on Ellsbury’s current stats, here’s how his projection for the season compares to Kenny Lofton’s rookie season (Lofton was a year older):

Ellsbury: 143 g, 498 AB, 109 R, 17 2b, 6 3b, 11 HR, 71 SB, 8 CS, 59 BB, 74 K, 278/358/397, 100 OPS+
Lofton: 148 g, 576 AB, 96 R, 15 2b, 8 3b, 5 HR,66 SB, 12 CS, 68 BB, 54 K, 285/362/365, 106 OPS+

Lofton looks to have a slight advantage in OPS+ and K/BB, while Ellsbury has him beat in power and age. Overall, still a very good comp. Ellsbury looks on his way to a Hall of Good career, albeit one in which you’re constantly signing 1-year deals (or not getting signed at all) and getting traded everywhere, including Japan.

Minor League Thread: Draft Time

The draft is coming up on June 5 and the Red Sox will likely draft a whole bunch of players who either go on to the Majors or don’t. They will be picking 30th in each round, with bonus picks at 45th (as compensation for “losing” Eric Gagne), and at 85th (for failing to sign 2nd rounder Hunter Morris last year).

That’s about the extent of the analysis that I can offer on this subject. Let’s hope that Philly and Temple stop by soon and give us their takes.

Ortiz out “at least a month”

I didn’t quite get what the exact injury is--I’m away from my Tivo--but NESN is reporting David Ortiz has a partial tear of a wrist tendon and will be out “at least a month.” This isn’t good news for the Sox. Main beneficiaries should be Coco and Casey.

Yin and Yang and All That Junk

It seems like just a couple weeks ago (because it was) that all the talk in baseball was that the Red Sox’ young starters were outshining and embarassing their Yankee counterparts. Buchholz was putting up nice numbers and Lester, after a shaky start, had rebounded and threw a thrilling no hitter. Meanwhile, Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy were both winless and struggling mightily to get out of the 4th inning. Fast forward a bit and Buc is in AAA after getting hurt and having a couple lousy rehab starts, and Lester has kept pitching well but has returned to his medicore peripherals. In the Bronx, Darrell Rasner has replaced Hughes and pitched very well and the frightening Joba Chamberlain is about to take over for Kennedy in the rotation. In another couple weeks, we could be saying that Rasner and Joba are the best young 1-2 punch between the two teams. Or we could be saying that of Lester and Buc. Or Chamberlain and Hughes. Or Masterson and Lester. The fate of young pitchers turns on a dime. And as a result, I’m betting that the rest of the season will be quite the roller coaster ride.

(Side note: None of these sets of starters measure up to what Kazmir and Shields (and Jackson and Garza) have done this year.

Minor League Thread: Adam Mills Still Thinks He’s a Prospect

After dominating college hitting in 07 with a 1.01 ERA, Adam Mills had to wait until the 8th round to hear his name called in the Major League draft. He quickly signed and pitched about as well as you could for Lowell in the Penn League to finish out the year, although 3 HR in 35 IP was a bit poor. That seemingly did little to improve opinions of him, as at the start of 08, the Red Sox sent him to the pitching Siberia known as Lancaster. Not to worry, though, because after a rough start, Mills has pulled things together and is putting together a nice little year. Mills has a very handsome 4.10 ERA and has allowed only 4 HR in 52.2 IP this season. He has also only walked 10 batters, but he’s given up a frightening 60 hits and gotten only 30 Ks. Those last two numbers are a bit of a concern, but I’m inclined to give the benefit of the doubt to any pitcher who can get good results in that bandbox.

At age 23, Mills really needed to do well at A+ and move on to AA in short order (by next season or so). So far, he’s done the first part, and it’ll be fun to see if he can do the 2nd.

The Future of Manny

Manny Ramirez got off to a torrid start, and it appeared that his intense offseason work had helped him return to his former greatness. But even while he was hitting well, Manny was striking out more and walking less than he had in the past. Now, those problems seem to have caught up to him. Manny’s now back around the decreased level he was at last year:

07: .296 .388 .493
08: .280 .364 .489

That’s an awfully pedestrian line in his last ~800 PA. The good news is that Manny’s defense looks like it has improved a bit this year. But with Abreu, Dunn, and Burrell out there for the taking, it doesn’t look like a slam dunk that they will pick up Manny’s $20 mil. option.

Minor League Thread: That Other B Guy

So, when are we going to start talking about Michael Bowden as a top pitching prospect? As a 20-year-old last year, he dominated high-A before moving to AA, where he held his own. This year, he seems to have adjusted quite well to his new surroundings. 47.2 IP, 35 H, 2 HR, 14 BB, 48 K, 2.83 ERA. All this at the young age of 21. Word is that is stuff isn’t all that impressive, but the results sort of speak for themselves.

Other interesting players at AA:

--Jeff Corsaletti has always had a good eye, but this year he’s showing some power and moderate contact/avg. ability. He’s hitting 283/414/483. If he’s a legit CF defender, he may have some sort of brief MLB career.

--Zach Daeges looking like a young Wade Boggs: 346/505/526 with 26 BB and 13 K in 78 ABs.

--Undrafted Huge Lefty Hunter Jones has looked very tough in relief: 22.2 IP, 21 H, 0 HR, 4 BB, 26 K, 1.19 ERA. He was promoted to Pawtucket on 5/15.

--Kris Johnson and Dustin Richardson have been pretty mediocre.

--Dan Bard was skipped from low A to AA, rather than being sent to the A+ team on Mars.