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Lycanthropy Think Factory 2012
Posted: 10 February 2012 11:57 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1001 ]
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So do I, it seems.

Posted: 11 February 2012 10:49 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1002 ]
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You awake to a light rain, which you are all grateful for, as it washes away the evidence of yesterday’s murder. As you gather in the middle of the camp you realize that one of you is missing. Rushing to Answer Guy’s cabin you see the door has been ripped from it’s hinges. Inside you find a pile of blood soaked teddy bears, under which lies the corpse of Answer Guy. You are left with two burning questions, who are the werewolves, and how does a man get so many stuffed animals in the middle of the wilderness?

Today the camp must vote to kill one or more villagers. Remember that any villager who has not voted by 10 EST is considered to have voted to kill themselves. Good luck, and good hunting.

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Posted: 11 February 2012 11:08 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1003 ]

Unless we get help from the seer, we’re in a bit of trouble.

Here’s my theory:  I voted for smelly, human HCO voted for smelly and Flounder voted for Smelly.  If smelly were human, there would be no reason for both of the remaining wolves to abstain from killing him with a 4th vote.  So that makes me think smelly and one of the other HCO voters (bads or kirby) are the wolves.  Kirby has either played very craftily for a first timer (including his arguably inapproriate 1057 (or was it 1037)) message.  So I am leaning to thinking smelly and bads are the wolves.

To the seer:  it goes without saying, but if we are about to kill an innocent, please reveal yourself to stop us.  If we kill an innocent today, the game is over.  Also, if you know who one of the werwolves are, tell us now.

Posted: 11 February 2012 11:24 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1004 ]
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[Cue haunted dancing teddy bears, hopefully not too soaked w/ blood.]

Posted: 11 February 2012 11:53 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1005 ]
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By voting to kill HCO, I made a hash of things.  Suspicion will naturally fall upon me.  All I can say in my defense is that I ain’t that smart.

We have to kill a werewolf today.

Posted: 11 February 2012 12:00 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1006 ]
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Dammit—wrong vote. I was persuaded by others to be the deciding vote for HCO instead of Smelly. I feel manipulated and dirty.

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Posted: 11 February 2012 12:06 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1007 ]
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Daryn - 11 February 2012 11:08 AM

(including his arguably inapproriate 1057 (or was it 1037)) message

Am I supposed to stay silent at night?  I wasn’t sure, and posted after HCO did.  If I broke a code, my apologies.

Posted: 11 February 2012 12:19 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1008 ]

I cannot think of a rational scenario in which Smelly isn’t a wolf.

Posted: 11 February 2012 12:25 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1009 ]
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Daryn - 11 February 2012 11:08 AM

Unless we get help from the seer, we’re in a bit of trouble.

Here’s my theory:  I voted for smelly, human HCO voted for smelly and Flounder voted for Smelly.  If smelly were human, there would be no reason for both of the remaining wolves to abstain from killing him with a 4th vote.  So that makes me think smelly and one of the other HCO voters (bads or kirby) are the wolves.  Kirby has either played very craftily for a first timer (including his arguably inapproriate 1057 (or was it 1037)) message.  So I am leaning to thinking smelly and bads are the wolves.

To the seer:  it goes without saying, but if we are about to kill an innocent, please reveal yourself to stop us.  If we kill an innocent today, the game is over.  Also, if you know who one of the werwolves are, tell us now.

That is a sound theory—Smelly and Kirby are obvious suspects. As the guy who cast the deciding vote, I suppose I am also. However, there is a possibility that the wolves were unsuccessfully trying to get Smelly and found themselves very fortunate when the rest of us picked up the false HCO trail. In fact, they could be laughing at us, knowing that we are poised to kill another innocent. In that case, you and Flounder, the more experienced players, would be the wolves who are just tickled pink this morning. The two primary suspects were HCO and Smelly—- if both were human, the wolves could have gone for the jugular by switching off an easy kill of Smelly, knowing he’d be the prime suspect today. Or one of you can be in cahoots with Kirby, coaching him along.

If Smelly is a absolutely no written help from his partner yesterday, which strikes me as very odd. His partner just left him hanging before a close vote. I had the suspicion that Smelly was getting railroaded yesterday—but then in my gut, I was also leaning towards AG and HCO, but they turned out innocent. Of course, Smelly could very well be a wolf, and we should kill him.

If we kill smelly and he is an innocent, then the wolves won in very easy fashion.

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Posted: 11 February 2012 12:28 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1010 ]

Also, one of bads or kirby almost certainly has to be a wolf.  But they are both taking the exact same position - what a fool I was.  One of them believes it and one of them is playing us.

Posted: 11 February 2012 12:32 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1011 ]

The only way the wolves were unsuccessfully trying to get smelly is if I was a wolf.  I am not.  If you accept that, is ther any way smelly could be not a wolf?

Posted: 11 February 2012 12:33 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1012 ]
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Weird night kill.  AG was not really cleared and he put in one of the killing votes on hco, so it would seem he might be easy to get lynched today,  The only real opinion he had was that daryn was a little wolfy.

Posted: 11 February 2012 12:39 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1013 ]

So this is what we know:

1. Answer Guy - human, killed by wolves, voted HCO
2. Smelly - voted HCO
3. HCO - human, killed by us voted Smelly
4. bads - voted HCO
5. Flounder - voted Smelly
6. Daryn - Voted Smelly
7. Kirby - Voted HCO

Killing a human this round, wins it for the wolves.  So I am very suspicious of Daryn jumping out to such a quick vote.  If he is human, the wolves would jump all over it, and win the round and the game.  Which means that either Daryn himself is a wolf (and there aren’t two other wolf votes) or I am a wolf.  I am not a wolf.  And I think it is important to consider why AG was killed.  He was relatively quiet last round, except for post 974 where he casts suspicion on Daryn.

I agree with AG’s reasoning then and now.  Joining a pile on would be too suspicious, so why not start one.  And this is the second day Daryn has tried to start a pile on. 

We picked too humans again to start out with, so the wolves didn’t have to reveal themselves.  Daryn’s logic only makes sense if you assume he isn’t a wolf.  Which given his behavior doesn’t seem like good logic.  I’m still trying to figure out who the other wolf would be, but I’m strongly suspicious of Daryn at this point.

Posted: 11 February 2012 12:42 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1014 ]

Yes, I don’t get that.  If I am not a wolf, why isn’t Flounder dead?

Posted: 11 February 2012 12:43 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1015 ]
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Daryn - 11 February 2012 12:28 PM

Also, one of bads or kirby almost certainly has to be a wolf.  But they are both taking the exact same position - what a fool I was.  One of them believes it and one of them is playing us.

I’ve been a fool in all the games I have played, so I am consistent.

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Posted: 11 February 2012 12:46 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1016 ]
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for reference

daryn votes smelly
hco votes smelly
smelly votes hco
flounder votes smelly
bads votes daryn
kirby votes hco
ag votes hco
bads votes hco

Posted: 11 February 2012 12:47 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1017 ]
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Daryn - 11 February 2012 12:28 PM

Also, one of bads or kirby almost certainly has to be a wolf.  But they are both taking the exact same position - what a fool I was.  One of them believes it and one of them is playing us.

You are talking in a lot of absolutes now—and those absolutes at least have counterarguments, yet, you are being heavy handed. That is definite wolf behavior.

I have to leave (away match), and might not be back before tonite.

I vote Daryn.

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Posted: 11 February 2012 12:51 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1018 ]

The only way it would make sense that I was a wolf is if Flounder was also a wolf.  That makes Flounder’s post above a little fishy to me.

Posted: 11 February 2012 12:52 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1019 ]
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A somewhat interesting thing is happening here.

Posted: 11 February 2012 12:54 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1020 ]
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Daryn - 11 February 2012 12:51 PM

The only way it would make sense that I was a wolf is if Flounder was also a wolf.  That makes Flounder’s post above a little fishy to me.

fishy in what way?  and I assume you are talking about the post about ag?

Posted: 11 February 2012 12:58 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1021 ]
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daryn,

Do you think I am a villager or a wolf?

Posted: 11 February 2012 01:07 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1022 ]
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My working hypothesis is that Daryn and Flounder are werewolves and AG was the seer.

Posted: 11 February 2012 01:10 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1023 ]
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Kirby Kyle - 11 February 2012 01:07 PM

My working hypothesis is that Daryn and Flounder are werewolves and AG was the seer.

unless jglb is doing things differently then he would have revealed to us that ag was the seer.

Posted: 11 February 2012 01:16 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1024 ]
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Flounder: Avowed enemy of inconvenience - 11 February 2012 01:10 PM
Kirby Kyle - 11 February 2012 01:07 PM

My working hypothesis is that Daryn and Flounder are werewolves and AG was the seer.

unless jglb is doing things differently then he would have revealed to us that ag was the seer.

This is correct.

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Posted: 11 February 2012 01:16 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1025 ]

Read smelly’s post carefully.  He has revealed himself as a wolf.  Bads’ vote for me also looks bad for him as well.

Going back:  first read my posts from the beginning yesterday and see if you think there was anything wolf like.  If I am a wolf and smelly is not, flounder almost certainly has to be the othe wolf.  Otherwise, my co-wolf could have easily finsihed smelly off.  To do so, is much less suspicious than what actually happened.

Flounder knows we are not co-wolves. 

Ask yourself why we haven’t heard from the seer.

 

   
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