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Lycanthropy Think Factory 2012
Posted: 11 February 2012 12:18 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1026 ]
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My stupidity can no longer be in doubt.

Posted: 11 February 2012 12:19 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1027 ]
Kirby Kyle - 11 February 2012 12:07 PM

My working hypothesis is that Daryn and Flounder are werewolves and AG was the seer.

Juglub tells us when the seer dies.

Flounder, I think you are a villager.  I am pretty sure of it actually.

 

Posted: 11 February 2012 12:20 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1028 ]

Flounder and kirby, does it make sense to you that we three are villagers?  If not, why not?

Posted: 11 February 2012 12:38 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1029 ]

We have 2 wolves, 2 human non seers, 1 human seer left.  Daryn is playing too aggressively to be a seer, so there is a 50/50 chance he is a human wolf.  Everyone else is 60/40 human/wolf.  I see no reason for the AG kill.  All the people suspicious of me were left alive, then Daryn came out guns blazing this round. 

This is our last chance to win.  We have to get a wolf this round.  Im thinking daryn is definately a wolf.  Killing him buys us and the seer time.  Then we can regroup tomorrow.

Posted: 11 February 2012 12:39 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1030 ]

And Daryn is also asking for the seer to reveal himself.  I’m interested in Kirby and flounders opinion.  Or a better defense from daryn.

Posted: 11 February 2012 12:43 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1031 ]

We’ll see how the day goes.  I think we need Kirby and Flounder to put all their cards on the table.

Posted: 11 February 2012 12:47 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1032 ]
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Daryn - 11 February 2012 12:20 PM

Flounder and kirby, does it make sense to you that we three are villagers?  If not, why not?

yeah, feels right to me.

 

Posted: 11 February 2012 12:49 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1033 ]
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also, keep in mind that all four other players have posted since bads voted daryn.  So the wolf pairing cannot include any two of those four.

that rules out a ton of wolf teams, obviously.

Posted: 11 February 2012 12:50 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1034 ]
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I’ve just realized that my inept play is an asset.  Nobody suspects me of being a werewolf.  I know that two of the remaining four are wolves, but the other two humans can also dismiss me as a suspect.  Each of them will have good odds at identifying at least one werewolf.

Posted: 11 February 2012 12:53 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1035 ]
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my thoughts-

daryn cannot be a wolf with me, kirby or smelly (see above).  It is highly unlikely imo that he and bads would play this way as partners.  Daryn cannot be a wolf by himself.  THerefore, daryn is a villager.

Kirby is either a confused new villager or a wolf who is playing us all.  In my experience, it isnt an act and is genuine.

By process of elimination, then bads and smelly are wolves.

Posted: 11 February 2012 12:53 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1036 ]
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And I swear I wrote my post before kirby posted his.

Posted: 11 February 2012 12:55 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1037 ]
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Smelly,

You think daryn is a wolf, correct?  Do you see how it follows that the only one who could be his partner would be bads?

Posted: 11 February 2012 12:58 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1038 ]
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Smelly is so fluffy he’s gonna die - 11 February 2012 12:39 PM

And Daryn is also asking for the seer to reveal himself.  I’m interested in Kirby and flounders opinion.  Or a better defense from daryn.

The seer should do what he thinks is best, given the extra info that he has. 

It should be obvious that he should speak up if we are likely to lynch his village peek.

Posted: 11 February 2012 01:00 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1039 ]
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Smelly is so fluffy he’s gonna die - 11 February 2012 12:38 PM

We have 2 wolves, 2 human non seers, 1 human seer left.  Daryn is playing too aggressively to be a seer, so there is a 50/50 chance he is a human wolf.  Everyone else is 60/40 human/wolf.  I see no reason for the AG kill.  All the people suspicious of me were left alive, then Daryn came out guns blazing this round. 

This is our last chance to win.  We have to get a wolf this round.  Im thinking daryn is definately a wolf.  Killing him buys us and the seer time.  Then we can regroup tomorrow.

the bolded makes sense from the view of someone not in the game.  However, if it was somehow revealed that daryn wasn’t seer, I would think he had a 2/3 chance of being a wolf, because I know I am not one.  This post feels like a wolf trying to put himself in a villager’s shoes.

Posted: 11 February 2012 01:10 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1040 ]

Kirby, flounder and I are on the exact same page.  Either we’re wolves or humans (I guess it is possible that we are one of each, but unlikely).  If you believe we are humans, let’s vote together.  If you don’t, let us know now.

Posted: 11 February 2012 01:13 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1041 ]
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I’ve gone through the thread, trying to imagine each poster as a werewolf.

I vote to kill bads.

Posted: 11 February 2012 01:17 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1042 ]

I’m convinced daryn is a wolf.  And as of now, I like flounder and bads as partners.  The only one I’m not suspicious of yet is Kirby, and obviously that can change.  I don’t see a scenario where daryn is not though.

Posted: 11 February 2012 01:18 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1043 ]

I’m going afk for the day.  I’ll check back in before 10.

Posted: 11 February 2012 01:19 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1044 ]
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Due to all 4 people having posted since bads voted, that means there are no wolf pairings among us four. That means bads has to be a wolf.

I vote to kill bads.

Posted: 11 February 2012 01:21 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1045 ]
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Smelly is so fluffy he’s gonna die - 11 February 2012 01:17 PM

I’m convinced daryn is a wolf.  And as of now, I like flounder and bads as partners.  The only one I’m not suspicious of yet is Kirby, and obviously that can change.  I don’t see a scenario where daryn is not though.

Your first two sentences seem to indicate 3 wolves.  Did you mis-type something?

Posted: 11 February 2012 01:26 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1046 ]
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ok, I am confusing myself.

I retract my vote to kill bads.

Posted: 11 February 2012 01:39 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1047 ]

Smelly meant that he thinks bads or flounder are the second wolf, with me being the first one.  Flounder and KK, if youare sure I am not the wolf, smelly almost has to be a wolf.

Kirby, to be clear, post 1040 was addressed to you; I wasn’t saying you are on the same page as flounder and -.

Flounder, why did you retract your vote?  Kirby, why bads over smelly.

I will vote with kirby and flounder if they reach an agreement on who to vote for, but I still say I am most certain that smelly is a wolf.

Posted: 11 February 2012 01:45 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1048 ]
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I felt that bads was playing possum on the first day, but he cast the deciding vote on HCO.  Why do you see Smelly as the strongest suspect?

Posted: 11 February 2012 01:45 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1049 ]
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Daryn - 11 February 2012 01:39 PM

Smelly meant that he thinks bads or flounder are the second wolf, with me being the first one.  Flounder and KK, if youare sure I am not the wolf, smelly almost has to be a wolf.

Kirby, to be clear, post 1040 was addressed to you; I wasn’t saying you are on the same page as flounder and -.

Flounder, why did you retract your vote?  Kirby, why bads over smelly.

I will vote with kirby and flounder if they reach an agreement on who to vote for, but I still say I am most certain that smelly is a wolf.

I realized my theory about the not having any wolf pairs in the non bads players was based on a faulty premise, namely that you are a villager.  While I believe this to be the case, it is not as definite as I thought.  The fact I overlooked something/used bad logic gave me pause, even though I think I ended up with the correct conclusion.

 

Posted: 11 February 2012 01:48 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1050 ]
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So I am fine with voting either smelly or bads.

Daryn has been my most villagery read since the game started, I dont see anyway he could be a wolf.  Kirby I just cant see as a wolf either.

If you want to vote smelly, I will follow.

   
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