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Lycanthropy Think Factory 2012
Posted: 11 February 2012 02:49 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1051 ]
Flounder: Avowed enemy of inconvenience - 11 February 2012 01:55 PM

Smelly,

You think daryn is a wolf, correct?  Do you see how it follows that the only one who could be his partner would be bads?

For the record, just looking at the voting order from yesterday, I see how this makes sense.  If Bads and I are wolves, he is hoping we can knock out innocent smelly without him having to vote for smelly.  He waits and waits and we don’t get lucky, and then he casts a vote for another innocent, which is way smarter than finishing off smelly.

Of course, bads’ vote against me today is an immensely good sign that we are not partners.  Plus, I am willing to kill bads if we can’t agree to kill smelly.

Posted: 11 February 2012 02:59 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1052 ]
Kirby Kyle - 11 February 2012 02:45 PM

I felt that bads was playing possum on the first day, but he cast the deciding vote on HCO.  Why do you see Smelly as the strongest suspect?

Why smelly?

It is based most of all on the fact that if smelly were human and hco and I are human then the remaining one or two wolves on the first day would have finished smelly off before hco got to two votes.  It was an easy kill, and if flounder is human, they had the incredible luck of three humans piling on an innocent—either one could come in under great cover and finish him off rather than taking a risk that the tide turns toward one of them.

Also there was his long post accusing me today.  I start the day by accusing him with a pretty logical post.  Then he goes all guns against me, whcih of course i know is suspicious because i am human but also looks suspicious because it isn’t based on a full review of my play.  I have acted very villagery—if you are suspicious of me it should be because you think I developed a long term plan of acting villagery, not because I was acting wolfy.

Anyway, I vote to kill smelly.  I am far from certain it is the right vote.  Bads would be my next choice followed by flounder and kirby.  I am just not sure what non-smelly pair makes sense. 

Full disclosure—at 10 pm last night, I was most suspicious of Answer Guy.

Posted: 11 February 2012 03:03 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1053 ]
Flounder: Avowed enemy of inconvenience - 11 February 2012 02:48 PM

So I am fine with voting either smelly or bads.

Daryn has been my most villagery read since the game started, I dont see anyway he could be a wolf.  Kirby I just cant see as a wolf either.

If you want to vote smelly, I will follow.

Kirby look at this post above—this very likely means that even if flounder were a wolf, the only people he could be paired with are you and I.  He has not acted like he is paired with me and nobody has said they suspect that.  And if you are not a wolf, that means he is not a wolf (if I am not a wolf).  If either one of us were certain that the other was not a wolf, it really seems to exonerate Flounder unless he is playing a very sneaky game.

Posted: 11 February 2012 03:17 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1054 ]
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I vote to kill smelly.

Posted: 11 February 2012 03:21 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1055 ]

JGLB, if there are three votes for someone is that person dead or do they have until 10 pm to change minds?

Posted: 11 February 2012 03:28 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1056 ]
bads85 - 11 February 2012 12:00 PM

Dammit—wrong vote. I was persuaded by others to be the deciding vote for HCO instead of Smelly. I feel manipulated and dirty.

I just re-read this.  How does bads know that his vote for HCO and not smelly was a “wrong” vote.  The only way to know that would be if he knew smelly were the wolf.  It may be a poor choice of words, but it also may be a key slip up.

Posted: 11 February 2012 03:37 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1057 ]
Daryn - 11 February 2012 03:28 PM
bads85 - 11 February 2012 12:00 PM

Dammit—wrong vote. I was persuaded by others to be the deciding vote for HCO instead of Smelly. I feel manipulated and dirty.

I just re-read this.  How does bads know that his vote for HCO and not smelly was a “wrong” vote.  The only way to know that would be if he knew smelly were the wolf.  It may be a poor choice of words, but it also may be a key slip up.

Also, look at post 984 and compare it to the part in bold above.  The two are inconsistent.  There is nothing in the posts that is consistent wit hte position that bads was persuaded by others to vote for hco.  Those voting for hco were barely providing reasons (only kirby did, and he wasn’t convincing himself).  Post 984 shows to the extentthat bads was sayign he wasbeing persuaded, it was to vote for smelly.  And then he didn’t.

I will be fascinated to see if and why I am wrong and will definitely learn form it, but I am pretty sure that the wolf pair are smelly and bads.

Posted: 11 February 2012 03:40 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1058 ]

I’m left with two conclusions: either smelly and bads are the wolves or flounder and kirby are.  And if it is the latter pair, take a bow gentlemen.

Posted: 11 February 2012 03:50 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1059 ]
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Daryn - 11 February 2012 03:40 PM

I’m left with two conclusions: either smelly and bads are the wolves or flounder and kirby are.  And if it is the latter pair, take a bow gentlemen.

Remember what I said about my poker playing skills.

Daryn, are you sticking with your vote to kill Smelly?  If so, I will consider changing mine.

Posted: 11 February 2012 03:53 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1060 ]
Kirby Kyle - 11 February 2012 03:50 PM
Daryn - 11 February 2012 03:40 PM

I’m left with two conclusions: either smelly and bads are the wolves or flounder and kirby are.  And if it is the latter pair, take a bow gentlemen.

Remember what I said about my poker playing skills.

Daryn, are you sticking with your vote to kill Smelly?  If so, I will consider changing mine.

Yes.

Posted: 11 February 2012 03:55 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1061 ]
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I rescind my vote to kill bads.  I vote to kill Smelly.  That is three votes.

Posted: 11 February 2012 03:57 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1062 ]

JGLB?  Is the day over or do smelly and bads have 7 hours to convince us we are wrong?

Posted: 11 February 2012 06:19 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1063 ]
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Daryn - 11 February 2012 03:21 PM

JGLB, if there are three votes for someone is that person dead or do they have until 10 pm to change minds?

10 pm

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Posted: 11 February 2012 07:00 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1064 ]
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Sorry everyone I was oot and aboot. I am willing to end the day early if we have a super-majority who agree to it.

Here are the current votes as I see them

#Votes - Name - Vote - Post
4 - Smelly - Smelly
1 - Daryn - Smelly - 1052
0 - bads - Daryn - 1017
0 - Flounder - Smelly - 1054
0 - Kirby - Smelly - 1061

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Posted: 11 February 2012 07:18 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1065 ]

I don’t think we should end the day early without smelly and bads’ explicit agreement.

Posted: 11 February 2012 07:25 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1066 ]
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Daryn - 11 February 2012 07:18 PM

I don’t think we should end the day early without smelly and bads’ explicit agreement.

I wouldn’t do it without a 4/5 agreement to do it, and the 5th person being aware of it.

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Posted: 11 February 2012 10:57 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1067 ]
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You surround Smelly, beating him into submission with the flats of your axes. You drag him to the stump, having more practice this time you manage to take his head off in one swing. The edges of the wound blacken as Smelly’s body transforms into that of a werewolf. The village has successfully found a werewolf, however is this the end of the menace?

Werewolves and seer please email me your choices.

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Posted: 12 February 2012 11:21 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1068 ]
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It’s morning once again and the camp is elated to have found a werewolf, however as you gather by the stump you notice that Kirby isn’t there. Rushing to his cabin you don’t find him there either, what you do find is a blood trail leading into the woods, following it you eventually reach a clearing and finally Kirby’s body.


bads, Daryn, Flounder today you vote for another of your company to die. Choose wisely.

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Posted: 12 February 2012 11:38 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1069 ]

I vote to kill bads.

As it turns out, I am the seer.  I saw HCO the first night and if you re-read my posts you’ll see I tried to protect him.  Then I saw dead AG (I thought the timing of his pile on vote was suspicious plus I had been debating between seeing him and HCO first and was kicking myself).  So going into Day 2 I still had no useful information.  I tried to goad a fake seer into revealing himself, because quite frankly I wasn’t very sure I was right about who was Smelly’s partner (nor was I really certain about smelly until he accused me).  So last night I saw bads.  He is a werewolf.

I am not sure what bads’ strategy will be now but I would note the idea that smelly and I were co-wolves strains credulity.

Posted: 12 February 2012 11:59 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1070 ]
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Daryn - 12 February 2012 11:38 AM

I vote to kill bads.

As it turns out, I am the seer.  I saw HCO the first night and if you re-read my posts you’ll see I tried to protect him.  Then I saw dead AG (I thought the timing of his pile on vote was suspicious plus I had been debating between seeing him and HCO first and was kicking myself).  So going into Day 2 I still had no useful information.  I tried to goad a fake seer into revealing himself, because quite frankly I wasn’t very sure I was right about who was Smelly’s partner (nor was I really certain about smelly until he accused me).  So last night I saw bads.  He is a werewolf.

I am not sure what bads’ strategy will be now but I would note the idea that smelly and I were co-wolves strains credulity.

I would have killed you last night if I were the wolf.  Of course I thought you had peeked smelly.  I actually thought you had peeked me with your second peek.

 

Posted: 12 February 2012 12:03 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1071 ]

I think I convinced bads that I wasn’t the seer and he thought his best chance would be to kill the seer and sow doubt.

Posted: 12 February 2012 12:09 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1072 ]

If I had peeked smelly the first night, I definitely would have revealed myself as the seer.  Don’t know about the second night.  The best part of the 10 pm curfew is that if you are the seer and you have been voted out by 7 or 8 you can just reveal yourself to either turn the tide or at least provide dying information.  Luckily, I didn’t have to do that yesterday.

Posted: 12 February 2012 12:50 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1073 ]
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Daryn - 12 February 2012 11:38 AM

I vote to kill bads.

As it turns out, I am the seer.  I saw HCO the first night and if you re-read my posts you’ll see I tried to protect him.  Then I saw dead AG (I thought the timing of his pile on vote was suspicious plus I had been debating between seeing him and HCO first and was kicking myself).  So going into Day 2 I still had no useful information.  I tried to goad a fake seer into revealing himself, because quite frankly I wasn’t very sure I was right about who was Smelly’s partner (nor was I really certain about smelly until he accused me).  So last night I saw bads.  He is a werewolf.

I am not sure what bads’ strategy will be now but I would note the idea that smelly and I were co-wolves strains credulity.

You aren’t the seer. I am, and I saw your wolfy ass last.

I am assuming that you thought Kirby was the seer and killed him last night before he could reveal who you are, then you could convince Flounder that you were the seer and tag team me.

The fact that you are still alive indicates you are a wolf. You would be any wolf’s greatest threat, yet the wolves didn’t elect to take you out. If I had been the wolf, you wouldn’t be alive.

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Posted: 12 February 2012 01:00 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1074 ]
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Flounder: Avowed enemy of inconvenience - 12 February 2012 11:59 AM
Daryn - 12 February 2012 11:38 AM

I vote to kill bads.

As it turns out, I am the seer.  I saw HCO the first night and if you re-read my posts you’ll see I tried to protect him.  Then I saw dead AG (I thought the timing of his pile on vote was suspicious plus I had been debating between seeing him and HCO first and was kicking myself).  So going into Day 2 I still had no useful information.  I tried to goad a fake seer into revealing himself, because quite frankly I wasn’t very sure I was right about who was Smelly’s partner (nor was I really certain about smelly until he accused me).  So last night I saw bads.  He is a werewolf.

I am not sure what bads’ strategy will be now but I would note the idea that smelly and I were co-wolves strains credulity.

I would have killed you last night if I were the wolf.  Of course I thought you had peeked smelly.  I actually thought you had peeked me with your second peek.

 

Bingo—how did he survive if he is not the wolf? He made me suspicious yesterday morning when he started talking in absolutes before I had to leave for the day. I voted for him and was very surprised to be alive this morning. He knew that taking me out last night would draw suspicion, and if the seer was still alive, he was toast.

We need to kill him.

BTW, I peeked Flounder on the first night, AG last night, and Daryn last night.

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Posted: 12 February 2012 01:08 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1075 ]

Up to you Flounder, but I would note that bads’ logic doesn’t hold up (not his fault - he’s working with harder material - fiction).  Case in point: he says he is very surprised to be alive.  If I were the wolf, I would HAVE to have kept him alive.  My whole theory would be based on bads being the wolf.

Also, not revealing himself as the seer yesterday doesn’t make sense since it would have mildly helped the humans and also he was on the chopping block for awhile.

   
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