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Lycanthropy Think Factory 2012
Posted: 12 February 2012 01:15 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1076 ]
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Daryn - 11 February 2012 11:08 AM

Unless we get help from the seer, we’re in a bit of trouble.

Here’s my theory:  I voted for smelly, human HCO voted for smelly and Flounder voted for Smelly.  If smelly were human, there would be no reason for both of the remaining wolves to abstain from killing him with a 4th vote.  So that makes me think smelly and one of the other HCO voters (bads or kirby) are the wolves.  Kirby has either played very craftily for a first timer (including his arguably inapproriate 1057 (or was it 1037)) message.  So I am leaning to thinking smelly and bads are the wolves.

To the seer:  it goes without saying, but if we are about to kill an innocent, please reveal yourself to stop us.  If we kill an innocent today, the game is over.  Also, if you know who one of the werwolves are, tell us now.

Daryn, this is the post where I thought you had peeked me.

See the bolded:  To me this implies that you know I am not a wolf.

Posted: 12 February 2012 01:18 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1077 ]
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And you shouldn’t have been able to know that.

Anyway, still re-reading.

Question for bads, if I was your peeked villager, any reason you didn’t follow my lead and vote smelly day one?

Posted: 12 February 2012 01:21 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1078 ]
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Daryn - 11 February 2012 12:42 PM

Yes, I don’t get that.  If I am not a wolf, why isn’t Flounder dead?

Daryn can you please explain this?  It was from yesterday morning.

Posted: 12 February 2012 01:25 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1079 ]
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Daryn - 12 February 2012 01:08 PM

Up to you Flounder, but I would note that bads’ logic doesn’t hold up (not his fault - he’s working with harder material - fiction).  Case in point: he says he is very surprised to be alive.  If I were the wolf, I would HAVE to have kept him alive.  My whole theory would be based on bads being the wolf.

Also, not revealing himself as the seer yesterday doesn’t make sense since it would have mildly helped the humans and also he was on the chopping block for awhile.

I wasn’t around yesterday (couldn’t check in during my match), and my cell battery died in Chino Hills. I wasn’t about to expose myself before I left, especially since I didn’t have much useful information. Flounder and I weren’t in any danger when I left—- why would I expose myself at that point? I needed to vote before I left, and you started smelling wolfy. I debated not voting for anyone (putting my vote on me). I probably should have done that since I didn’t make it back in time—- accusing you turned out to be more risky than I imagined. However, I was hoping to be back before ten and thought I’d be able to sort out any possible confusion, so I went ahead and cast for you.

I don’t really buy that you had to keep me alive—- had you killed me, you could have easily put it on Kirby to convince Flounder that you weren’t the wolf. You thought Kirby was the only one who could expose you. You guessed wrong on the seer.

 Signature 

So can your pop sensibilities sing me the end of the world?
Turn gunshots and mortar blasts into a metaphor of how we are all the same.
Well there’s a lot of things that should be said, said, so we’re hammering six strings.
Machine gun in audible voices, this is the party we came for.

Dead Religions

Posted: 12 February 2012 01:25 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1080 ]

I think what I meant there is that even if you were one of the wolves that would explain why one wolf didn’t pile on but not both.  What I do know for sure is that I was suspicious of you throughout and until I got the result of my last peek I still thought there was a 10 to 20 percent chance you were a wolf.

Posted: 12 February 2012 01:28 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1081 ]
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Flounder: Avowed enemy of inconvenience - 12 February 2012 01:18 PM

And you shouldn’t have been able to know that.

Anyway, still re-reading.

Question for bads, if I was your peeked villager, any reason you didn’t follow my lead and vote smelly day one?

I wasn’t sure you were correct. I was torn and was influenced into voting for HCO. I wasn’t confident with that vote either, but time was running out.

 Signature 

So can your pop sensibilities sing me the end of the world?
Turn gunshots and mortar blasts into a metaphor of how we are all the same.
Well there’s a lot of things that should be said, said, so we’re hammering six strings.
Machine gun in audible voices, this is the party we came for.

Dead Religions

Posted: 12 February 2012 01:31 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1082 ]
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Things that make it less likely daryn is the wolf:

I find it kinda hard to believe that he would push his partner d1.
Kirby and I were both ready to vote wither smelly or bads yesterday, and daryn pushed us to smelly.  There is no upside to that.

Posted: 12 February 2012 01:32 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1083 ]
Flounder: Avowed enemy of inconvenience - 12 February 2012 01:21 PM
Daryn - 11 February 2012 12:42 PM

Yes, I don’t get that.  If I am not a wolf, why isn’t Flounder dead?

Daryn can you please explain this?  It was from yesterday morning.

I am on a cell phone so can’t look back, but it had something to do with the fact that the wolves ought to have been HCO voters and should have killed one of the smelly voters.  Maybe I meant if I am a wolf. 

The killing of AG did not make sense to me.

 

Posted: 12 February 2012 01:37 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1084 ]
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Daryn - 12 February 2012 01:08 PM

Up to you Flounder, but I would note that bads’ logic doesn’t hold up (not his fault - he’s working with harder material - fiction).  Case in point: he says he is very surprised to be alive.  If I were the wolf, I would HAVE to have kept him alive.  My whole theory would be based on bads being the wolf.

Also, not revealing himself as the seer yesterday doesn’t make sense since it would have mildly helped the humans and also he was on the chopping block for awhile.

Yes his logic is wrong, but I am not sure it is wrong in a wolfy way.  If he is the villager, he would be looking at it like “I am the only one pushing daryn, why would he let me live?”

And your 2nd paragraph applies to yourself as equally as it does bads.

Posted: 12 February 2012 01:41 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1085 ]
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Flounder: Avowed enemy of inconvenience - 12 February 2012 01:31 PM

Things that make it less likely daryn is the wolf:

I find it kinda hard to believe that he would push his partner d1.
Kirby and I were both ready to vote wither smelly or bads yesterday, and daryn pushed us to smelly.  There is no upside to that.

This is why I was never sold on Smelly being a wolf until it was revealed that he was. I guess Smelly and Daryn got too cute, thinking they could cast suspicion that they weren’t a team. If I weren’t the seer, it would have worked.

 Signature 

So can your pop sensibilities sing me the end of the world?
Turn gunshots and mortar blasts into a metaphor of how we are all the same.
Well there’s a lot of things that should be said, said, so we’re hammering six strings.
Machine gun in audible voices, this is the party we came for.

Dead Religions

Posted: 12 February 2012 01:42 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1086 ]
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Things that point to daryn being the wolf:

The AG night kill.
Wolf smelly was all about suspecting daryn and calling him the wolf, but he never actually voted him.  If daryn was villager, I dont see why smelly would hold back.  It would have put the wolves one vote away from winning yesterday.

Posted: 12 February 2012 01:45 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1087 ]
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And I don’t really know what to think of the night kill last night.  My guess is that no one was ever going to vote kirby.  And really, whether he was the seer or not is irrelevant.  No one claimed yesterday so that couldn’t have been used against them.  So there was always going to be a legit seer claim and a fake claim.

Posted: 12 February 2012 01:50 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1088 ]
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Flounder: Avowed enemy of inconvenience - 12 February 2012 01:42 PM

Things that point to daryn being the wolf:

The AG night kill.
Wolf smelly was all about suspecting daryn and calling him the wolf, but he never actually voted him.  If daryn was villager, I dont see why smelly would hold back.  It would have put the wolves one vote away from winning yesterday.

I think they thought I wasn’t the seer because I talked too much the first day. They thought AG was a seer, went for him with the night kill and guessed wrong (again) with Kirby. The fact that Smelly never voted for Daryn screams that they were putting on an act.

 Signature 

So can your pop sensibilities sing me the end of the world?
Turn gunshots and mortar blasts into a metaphor of how we are all the same.
Well there’s a lot of things that should be said, said, so we’re hammering six strings.
Machine gun in audible voices, this is the party we came for.

Dead Religions

Posted: 12 February 2012 01:51 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1089 ]

Flounder, bads’ continued insistence that if I were the wolf, I wouldn’t have to keep him alive is a remarkable and unnecessary tell.

Anyway, I am off shopping for tweens’ clothes for the day and may not not check in until after dinner.  I think I have made my case and it is up to you. 


Posted: 12 February 2012 01:55 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1090 ]
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Daryn - 10 February 2012 05:08 PM
bads85 - 10 February 2012 05:05 PM
Daryn - 10 February 2012 04:32 PM

The problem with random number generations is that it takes away a whole bunch of information from the villagers re voting patterns.  We win each time because of the information we get from how the first vote plays out.  I think people who suggest things that are bad for the villagers and good for the wolves are suspicious, but the two times I followed up on that path of reasoning I was wrong.  That said, of everyone who has posted so far, the only one I think who has said anything remotely suspicious is Smelly.

Yeah—- wouldn’t we face a similar (albeit smaller) problem the next day without the information?

What has Smelly said that was suspicious? The random generator thing?

That and his suspicion of HCO based on what I perceive as unsound reasoning.  HCO was mouthy as a human last game and got killed; so Smelly observes that he is not mouthy this game and suggests that this is suspicious; in fact, it is exactly what you would expect a human HCO to do.  I am not saying I think HCO is human (at all). I am just saying that the logic didn’t wash with me and as a general rule I assume everybody will act logically unless they are dissembling.

The bolded is an interesting thing to say about your village peek.

Posted: 12 February 2012 01:55 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1091 ]
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Flounder: Avowed enemy of inconvenience - 12 February 2012 01:45 PM

And I don’t really know what to think of the night kill last night.  My guess is that no one was ever going to vote kirby.  And really, whether he was the seer or not is irrelevant.  No one claimed yesterday so that couldn’t have been used against them.  So there was always going to be a legit seer claim and a fake claim.

That makes sense about the relevance of the seer—- Daryn chose to kill Kirby because he thought Kirby would be a more formidable opponent than me.

 Signature 

So can your pop sensibilities sing me the end of the world?
Turn gunshots and mortar blasts into a metaphor of how we are all the same.
Well there’s a lot of things that should be said, said, so we’re hammering six strings.
Machine gun in audible voices, this is the party we came for.

Dead Religions

Posted: 12 February 2012 01:56 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1092 ]

But Flounder, great catch regarding yesterday’s voting.  You and kirby had both actually voted for bads (though I think you rescinded yours quickly).  It would have been much less work to get all three of us to vote for bads yesterday insteas of smelly.  So according to bads, rather than winning the game outright right there I pushed you too onto my partner.  If that isn’t enough to show you I couldn’t be partners with smelly, I am not sure what it is.

And, of course, I pushed you both from bads to smelly because I was still mildly suspicious that either of you could be the wolf (until the very end when I concluded it had to be the two of you or smelly and bads).

Posted: 12 February 2012 01:59 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1093 ]
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bads85 - 12 February 2012 01:55 PM
Flounder: Avowed enemy of inconvenience - 12 February 2012 01:45 PM

And I don’t really know what to think of the night kill last night.  My guess is that no one was ever going to vote kirby.  And really, whether he was the seer or not is irrelevant.  No one claimed yesterday so that couldn’t have been used against them.  So there was always going to be a legit seer claim and a fake claim.

That makes sense about the relevance of the seer—- Daryn chose to kill Kirby because he thought Kirby would be a more formidable opponent than me.

Not quite, at least not in my interpretation.

*Daryn killed kirby because he guesses that I would vote you much much more often than I would vote kirby.  He was right, btw.


* If daryn is wolf, of course.

Posted: 12 February 2012 02:01 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1094 ]
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Flounder: Avowed enemy of inconvenience - 12 February 2012 01:59 PM
bads85 - 12 February 2012 01:55 PM
Flounder: Avowed enemy of inconvenience - 12 February 2012 01:45 PM

And I don’t really know what to think of the night kill last night.  My guess is that no one was ever going to vote kirby.  And really, whether he was the seer or not is irrelevant.  No one claimed yesterday so that couldn’t have been used against them.  So there was always going to be a legit seer claim and a fake claim.

That makes sense about the relevance of the seer—- Daryn chose to kill Kirby because he thought Kirby would be a more formidable opponent than me.

Not quite, at least not in my interpretation.

*Daryn killed kirby because he guesses that I would vote you much much more often than I would vote kirby.  He was right, btw.


* If daryn is wolf, of course.

And wolf daryn would have been pretty much all-in on the bads/smelly wolf team.  He couldnt plausibly argue kirby is wolf.

Posted: 12 February 2012 02:03 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1095 ]
Flounder: Avowed enemy of inconvenience - 12 February 2012 01:55 PM
Daryn - 10 February 2012 05:08 PM
bads85 - 10 February 2012 05:05 PM
Daryn - 10 February 2012 04:32 PM

The problem with random number generations is that it takes away a whole bunch of information from the villagers re voting patterns.  We win each time because of the information we get from how the first vote plays out.  I think people who suggest things that are bad for the villagers and good for the wolves are suspicious, but the two times I followed up on that path of reasoning I was wrong.  That said, of everyone who has posted so far, the only one I think who has said anything remotely suspicious is Smelly.

Yeah—- wouldn’t we face a similar (albeit smaller) problem the next day without the information?

What has Smelly said that was suspicious? The random generator thing?

That and his suspicion of HCO based on what I perceive as unsound reasoning.  HCO was mouthy as a human last game and got killed; so Smelly observes that he is not mouthy this game and suggests that this is suspicious; in fact, it is exactly what you would expect a human HCO to do.  I am not saying I think HCO is human (at all). I am just saying that the logic didn’t wash with me and as a general rule I assume everybody will act logically unless they are dissembling.

The bolded is an interesting thing to say about your village peek.

I felt I had made too many posts protesting HCO’s innocence and without that disclaimer people might think we two were wolves or that I was the seer.

Anyone, I have enjoyed this game and on a personal level I feel I have won already by guessing bads and smelly.

Good luck with your choice, Flounder, it didn’t even occur to me it would be a touigh call after your posts yesterday.

 

Posted: 12 February 2012 02:18 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1096 ]
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Flounder: Avowed enemy of inconvenience - 12 February 2012 02:01 PM
Flounder: Avowed enemy of inconvenience - 12 February 2012 01:59 PM
bads85 - 12 February 2012 01:55 PM
Flounder: Avowed enemy of inconvenience - 12 February 2012 01:45 PM

And I don’t really know what to think of the night kill last night.  My guess is that no one was ever going to vote kirby.  And really, whether he was the seer or not is irrelevant.  No one claimed yesterday so that couldn’t have been used against them.  So there was always going to be a legit seer claim and a fake claim.

That makes sense about the relevance of the seer—- Daryn chose to kill Kirby because he thought Kirby would be a more formidable opponent than me.

Not quite, at least not in my interpretation.

*Daryn killed kirby because he guesses that I would vote you much much more often than I would vote kirby.  He was right, btw.


* If daryn is wolf, of course.

And wolf daryn would have been pretty much all-in on the bads/smelly wolf team.  He couldnt plausibly argue kirby is wolf.

Which is why he had to kill him.

 Signature 

So can your pop sensibilities sing me the end of the world?
Turn gunshots and mortar blasts into a metaphor of how we are all the same.
Well there’s a lot of things that should be said, said, so we’re hammering six strings.
Machine gun in audible voices, this is the party we came for.

Dead Religions

Posted: 12 February 2012 02:19 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1097 ]

Fwiw, bads had to keep me alive because he was pretty much all-in on daryn is the wolf.  That said, I also thought I’d convinced him I wasn’t the seer.

Posted: 12 February 2012 02:21 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1098 ]
bads85 - 12 February 2012 02:18 PM
Flounder: Avowed enemy of inconvenience - 12 February 2012 02:01 PM
Flounder: Avowed enemy of inconvenience - 12 February 2012 01:59 PM
bads85 - 12 February 2012 01:55 PM
Flounder: Avowed enemy of inconvenience - 12 February 2012 01:45 PM

And I don’t really know what to think of the night kill last night.  My guess is that no one was ever going to vote kirby.  And really, whether he was the seer or not is irrelevant.  No one claimed yesterday so that couldn’t have been used against them.  So there was always going to be a legit seer claim and a fake claim.

That makes sense about the relevance of the seer—- Daryn chose to kill Kirby because he thought Kirby would be a more formidable opponent than me.

Not quite, at least not in my interpretation.

*Daryn killed kirby because he guesses that I would vote you much much more often than I would vote kirby.  He was right, btw.


* If daryn is wolf, of course.

And wolf daryn would have been pretty much all-in on the bads/smelly wolf team.  He couldnt plausibly argue kirby is wolf.

Which is why he had to kill him.

Then why were you very surprised to have survived the night?  That is non-sensical.

 

Posted: 12 February 2012 02:25 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1099 ]
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Smelly is so fluffy he’s gonna die - 11 February 2012 01:39 PM

And Daryn is also asking for the seer to reveal himself.  I’m interested in Kirby and flounders opinion.  Or a better defense from daryn.

Weird that smelly doesnt mention bads here.

Posted: 12 February 2012 02:25 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1100 ]
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just to be all official and ####,

bads have you voted daryn?

   
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