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Lycanthropy Think Factory 2012
Posted: 28 January 2012 11:06 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 301 ]

I am pretty convinced that Flounder is either the seer or the werewolf.  Unfortunately, that is not a very helpful conclusion.

Posted: 28 January 2012 11:12 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 302 ]
bads85 - 28 January 2012 11:04 AM

I remained convinced JLAC is the werewolf. He did not even deny any of my allegations yesterday, as if they would be dismissed as the rambling of a newbie lunatic.

He failed to vote for me when to do so almost certainly would have saved scotto and when not doing so almost certainly doomed scotto.  And he voted for scotto for awhile.  That is either incredibly tricky and risky to the point of reckless, or he’s human.

 

Posted: 28 January 2012 11:13 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 303 ]
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Daryn - 28 January 2012 11:06 AM

I am pretty convinced that Flounder is either the seer or the werewolf.  Unfortunately, that is not a very helpful conclusion.

If I was the wolf it would be kinda silly of me to say bourbon isnt a wolf.

Posted: 28 January 2012 11:17 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 304 ]
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On CW, yes he did vote scotto, but he didnt really lead the charge.  His vote could be interpreted as seeing his partner going down and wanting himself to look good for voting him.

He did get the daryn movement started (who I think is a human, for reasons stated above).

And yes, I jumped on, in the interests of full disclosure.

Posted: 28 January 2012 11:19 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 305 ]
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Flounder: Avowed enemy of inconvenience - 28 January 2012 11:17 AM

On CW, yes he did vote scotto, but he didnt really lead the charge.  His vote could be interpreted as seeing his partner going down and wanting himself to look good for voting him.

He did get the daryn movement started (who I think is a human, for reasons stated above).

And yes, I jumped on, in the interests of full disclosure.

dammit that last sentence should have been a new post.  I hit edit rather than quote.  sorry about that.

Posted: 28 January 2012 11:29 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 306 ]
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Per posts 28 and 286, the seer has seen TWO people so far.

Per post 154 the werewolves did know who each other were.

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Amtrak train 288 with engine 707’s got a clear signal at CP 188, track 2 east.

Posted: 28 January 2012 11:56 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 307 ]
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Flounder: Avowed enemy of inconvenience - 28 January 2012 11:13 AM
Daryn - 28 January 2012 11:06 AM

I am pretty convinced that Flounder is either the seer or the werewolf.  Unfortunately, that is not a very helpful conclusion.

If I was the wolf it would be kinda silly of me to say bourbon isnt a wolf.

It is NEVER silly to speak the truth, good accountant. An extra quart of goat milk in your order today!

Don’t we have a couple villagers who have said very little? It seems like it would be a good strategy for a wolf to lay low and let us fight amongst ourselves.

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I came here in peace, seeking gold and slaves.

Posted: 28 January 2012 12:00 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 308 ]
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Hmm, I was going to say Accent Shallow hadn’t said anything and that was suspicious but it looks like he voted for Scotto pretty early.

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I came here in peace, seeking gold and slaves.

Posted: 28 January 2012 12:09 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 309 ]
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Out of character: I don’t think there was any ambiguity about the ballots from last night, so in reality we had a tie. Now the technicality ended up killing a werewolf, so it may seem beneficial (to the non-wolves, I doubt the filthy lycanthrope scotto sees it that way). But I still am discomforted on the first night being decided by such a minor point.

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You don’t give up.  You should, but you don’t.

Posted: 28 January 2012 12:12 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 310 ]
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CW hits the pinata for the candy - 28 January 2012 12:09 PM

Out of character: I don’t think there was any ambiguity about the ballots from last night, so in reality we had a tie. Now the technicality ended up killing a werewolf, so it may seem beneficial (to the non-wolves, I doubt the filthy lycanthrope scotto sees it that way). But I still am discomforted on the first night being decided by such a minor point.

I really tried to prevent that:

HCO, Transgressive Herbivore - 25 January 2012 05:36 PM

6. YOUR VOTE WILL NOT BE COUNTED if it is not in the form of “I vote to kill [name].” or “I retract my vote to kill [name].” I am not going to count hanging chads, nor delay the voting while I wait for clarification. You could hurt your team this way, which violates rule 2, so do it right. “I have to go with CW” is not a vote. “I’m thinking CW” is not a vote. “CW.” is not a vote.

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Amtrak train 288 with engine 707’s got a clear signal at CP 188, track 2 east.

Posted: 28 January 2012 12:12 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 311 ]
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CW hits the pinata for the candy - 28 January 2012 12:09 PM

Out of character: I don’t think there was any ambiguity about the ballots from last night, so in reality we had a tie. Now the technicality ended up killing a werewolf, so it may seem beneficial (to the non-wolves, I doubt the filthy lycanthrope scotto sees it that way). But I still am discomforted on the first night being decided by such a minor point.

I actually agree with this.

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Drink Along With Me! JugLub’s Semi-Whenever-He-Feels-Like It Beer Rating Thread

Posted: 28 January 2012 12:22 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 312 ]
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So the ones you had doubts on were;

JGLB, Future King of a Future State - 27 January 2012 07:22 PM

Vote Accent.

BourbonSamurai is not Fausto Carmona - 27 January 2012 07:26 PM
BourbonSamurai is not Fausto Carmona - 27 January 2012 07:08 PM

Ok, the goats are following CW’s lead and going for Daryn. They are suspicious of his quiet nature.

I vote daryn to be official

scotto - 27 January 2012 08:11 PM

Sorry to hear it, JGLB.  Best wishes and condolences to your family.

Reading the whole thread at once is interesting, mostly from seeing what assumptions and roles people are bringing into the game.  CW is assuming an almost parodic rationality stance.  Bourbon is playing the hysterical loon card.  JLAC is the devil’s advocate.  Daryn is sitting in the corner observing and speaking out after assessing the lay of the land.  And “selflessly” picking JGLB to go.  Hmm. I’m going with the crowd, torch and pitchfork in hand.  Daryn.

Of the three, only scotto’s was the one that was ambiguous to me.

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Drink Along With Me! JugLub’s Semi-Whenever-He-Feels-Like It Beer Rating Thread

Posted: 28 January 2012 12:28 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 313 ]
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After looking it over, yeah scotto’s clarification was too late, I feel less concerned over the outcome. For clarification, will votes not be counted unless we use the exact phrases? My reading was that we could use an approximation of the phrase.

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Drink Along With Me! JugLub’s Semi-Whenever-He-Feels-Like It Beer Rating Thread

Posted: 28 January 2012 12:30 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 314 ]

I do too and I said so at the time.  Going forward, let’s agree not to do that and to require a majority.  That said, we should make it as easy as possible for hco by participating and voting clearly.

In that vein, I am heading out skiing now and my reception may be spotty over the next 30 hours, but I hope not.  In any event, I think the two most likely werewolves are bourbon and flounder and I find bourbon’s act to mildly reduce the enjoyment of the game for me personally (I am sure others have different views).  As a result, I will vote as follws, leaving room for the possibility to change my vote if new information appears.

I vote to kill BourbonSamurai is not Fausto Carmona.

Posted: 28 January 2012 12:31 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 315 ]
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To expand upon my reasoning for yesterday: JGLB had talked by far the most, and my intuition was that he was a human. So Daryn’s initial vote was troubling to me, so I voted against him. Daryn’s late evening conduct didn’t convince me that scotto was a werewolf, but it did lead me to believe that Daryn wasn’t, so I switched to scotto - again, I didn’t have much reason for thinking he was a wolf, but I had an idea that Daryn and JGLB weren’t. I was right about JGLB. I still think I’m right about Daryn. Accent Shallow’s vote for scotto and when it came seem to indicate he also is human. JLAC is either human or the ballsiest werewolf I have ever seen.

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You don’t give up.  You should, but you don’t.

Posted: 28 January 2012 12:32 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 316 ]

Vote Accent could be interpreted as a suggestion to other voters, rather than a vote itself.

Posted: 28 January 2012 12:33 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 317 ]
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Daryn - 28 January 2012 12:30 PM

I do too and I said so at the time.  Going forward, let’s agree not to do that and to require a majority.  That said, we should make it as easy as possible for hco by participating and voting clearly.

In that vein, I am heading out skiing now and my reception may be spotty over the next 30 hours, but I hope not.  In any event, I think the two most likely werewolves are bourbon and flounder and I find bourbon’s act to mildly reduce the enjoyment of the game for me personally (I am sure others have different views).  As a result, I will vote as follws, leaving room for the possibility to change my vote if new information appears.

I vote to kill BourbonSamurai is not Fausto Carmona.

Bourbon was your original guess as to scotto’s co-conspirator last night, no?

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You don’t give up.  You should, but you don’t.

Posted: 28 January 2012 12:35 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 318 ]
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Daryn - 27 January 2012 09:15 PM

I’ll also make my official guess as to who the werwolves are:  scotto and bourbon.  Jlac is a little suspicious too.  The werewolves tend to be the bandwagon jumpers-on on the first two days.

Yep, I remembered correctly.

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You don’t give up.  You should, but you don’t.

Posted: 28 January 2012 12:36 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 319 ]

Daryn last night seemed to manage to turn opinion from himself to scotto (he convinced me, anyway), but his posts after that suggest flailing. However, I can’t imagine a werewolf sacrificing his partner over himself this early in the game. So I’m willing to bet Daryn’s not the remaining werewolf.

I was suspicious of both Bourbon and the Jug Lover, based on mildly erratic first day behavior, but you can’t draw too many conclusions from that, and now the Jigglebee has been eliminated.

CW really threw me with the random number generator idea, but that could just be trying to solve a problem with no prior inputs. Also, accusation and then withdrawal from Daryn seem human-esque.

Daryn and Flounder’s back-to-back posts in 289/290 more or less follow my reasoning.

Posted: 28 January 2012 12:43 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 320 ]
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If I was a werewolf I wouldn’t have to entertain myself with elaborate goat based nonsense! Also, I was the first one to accuse Scotto! I only switched because no one followed me and Daryn accused me.

Flounder is either the seer or the wolf. I am not sure which. I don’t have a good idea who might be another candidate.

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I came here in peace, seeking gold and slaves.

Posted: 28 January 2012 12:46 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 321 ]
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Headed to New York now. Checkin in will be based on the wireless on the bus.

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I came here in peace, seeking gold and slaves.

Posted: 28 January 2012 12:47 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 322 ]

CW and JLAC can only be werewolves through tricky play.  This early in the game it makes sense to me to try to kill someone who has acted neutrally or like a werewolf:  that leaves bourbon, flounder and bads in my view.

The key this round is for the seer to survive.  If he does, he can reveal everything he knows next round and almost certainly doom the werewolf.  That’s why I like killing bourbon, because I partially suspect that flounder is the seer.

Posted: 28 January 2012 12:49 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 323 ]

I am on a cellphone.  Can someone quote the post in which bourbon accused scotto.  I didn’t remember/know that.

Posted: 28 January 2012 12:55 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 324 ]
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This post:

BourbonSamurai is not Fausto Carmona - 27 January 2012 11:25 AM

Yeah, him or that ne’er do well, Scotto.

You can see everyone in my village are lazy drunkards, as we’ve been standing here yelling about weregoats for awhile and they are still in bed.

It’s flimsy. Not even a hanging chad. It’s the sort of thing bourbon can point to now, but it was absolutely not a factor in scotto’s death last night.  Most favorable interpretation is a coincidence, least favorable is false flag.

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You don’t give up.  You should, but you don’t.

Posted: 28 January 2012 01:14 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 325 ]

Who was the ‘him’ referring to?  It seems a little risky to refer to your fellow completely unsuspected werewolf as a ne’er do well so early in the game; but, yes, a safe false flag is certainly a reasonable guess.

   
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