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Lycanthropy Think Factory 2012
Posted: 28 January 2012 12:19 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 326 ]
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When Flounder asked me to declare a vote, I said scotto. I switched later when there was some momentum against jlac and daryn. Constancy is not my strong suit.

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I came here in peace, seeking gold and slaves.

Posted: 28 January 2012 12:20 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 327 ]

Is the chronology in post 320 wrong?  I only remembering accusing bourbon at around 8 pm.  I don’t think I accused him before he voted for whoever he ended up voting for (I think me).  If he has the chronology that wrong, that’s pretty werewolfy.

Posted: 28 January 2012 12:24 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 328 ]
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Daryn - 28 January 2012 11:47 AM

CW and JLAC can only be werewolves through tricky play.  This early in the game it makes sense to me to try to kill someone who has acted neutrally or like a werewolf:  that leaves bourbon, flounder and bads in my view.

The key this round is for the seer to survive.  If he does, he can reveal everything he knows next round and almost certainly doom the werewolf.  That’s why I like killing bourbon, because I partially suspect that flounder is the seer.

So if I am the seer, and bourbon is my peek, why kill him?

That should be the last person you would want to kill.

 

Posted: 28 January 2012 12:24 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 329 ]
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Daryn - 28 January 2012 12:20 PM

Is the chronology in post 320 wrong?  I only remembering accusing bourbon at around 8 pm.  I don’t think I accused him before he voted for whoever he ended up voting for (I think me).  If he has the chronology that wrong, that’s pretty werewolfy.

Here’s another post where he mentions scotto:

BourbonSamurai is not Fausto Carmona - 27 January 2012 03:51 PM
Flounder: Avowed enemy of inconvenience - 27 January 2012 03:31 PM
CW hits the pinata for the candy - 27 January 2012 03:27 PM

So what do we have so far? Daryn suspects JGLB because he thinks the seer lists are an attempt at lycanthropic subterfuge, JLAC suspects me because of Rule 4a, Bourbon suspects scotto because of… goats, I guess. Flounder doesn’t like either of my or JGLB’s ideas and thinks further discussion should be avoided. Anything else?

I anti-suspect (shut up,its a word now) jglb.  I am not particularly thrilled with bourbon’s play.  His scotto thing is weird, and I don’t like how he was suspicious of the two people who hadn’t participated at that time.

To be serious, when I have played this game the fun is to create characters and then kind of roll with them. So if people aren’t able to post for whatever real reason they have, we/they make up a reason and use that. There isn’t really anything else to go on on the first “day” anyway. I am anti-scotto as it seems to make sense that the character I decided to go with wouldn’t like the character he decided to go with.

But if that doesn’t seem fun to people, I will tone the goats down.

Mostly.

 

Here’s his first vote:

BourbonSamurai is not Fausto Carmona - 27 January 2012 06:08 PM

Ok, the goats are following CW’s lead and going for Daryn. They are suspicious of his quiet nature.

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You don’t give up.  You should, but you don’t.

Posted: 28 January 2012 12:28 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 330 ]
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Flounder: Avowed enemy of inconvenience - 28 January 2012 12:24 PM
Daryn - 28 January 2012 11:47 AM

CW and JLAC can only be werewolves through tricky play.  This early in the game it makes sense to me to try to kill someone who has acted neutrally or like a werewolf:  that leaves bourbon, flounder and bads in my view.

The key this round is for the seer to survive.  If he does, he can reveal everything he knows next round and almost certainly doom the werewolf.  That’s why I like killing bourbon, because I partially suspect that flounder is the seer.

So if I am the seer, and bourbon is my peek, why kill him?

That should be the last person you would want to kill.

Is that what you’re saying?

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You don’t give up.  You should, but you don’t.

Posted: 28 January 2012 12:28 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 331 ]
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Yep, my chronology is wrong. My defense is that I am bad at werewolf.

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I came here in peace, seeking gold and slaves.

Posted: 28 January 2012 12:30 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 332 ]
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Yep, my chronology is wrong. My defense is that I am bad at werewolf.

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I came here in peace, seeking gold and slaves.

Posted: 28 January 2012 12:31 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 333 ]
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BourbonSamurai is not Fausto Carmona - 28 January 2012 11:46 AM

Headed to New York now. Checkin in will be based on the wireless on the bus.

Oh ####, this guy is really mad about my vote counting.

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who the hell wanna battle the ill mathematical - my ############ brain is IBM-compatible

Posted: 28 January 2012 12:31 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 334 ]

That’s an odd post (351 pm) if he is the werewolf.  Also, as Flounder points out, if Flounder is the seer he is hinting that bourbon is not the werewolf.  But it seems clear that bourbon falsely stated the chronology—he said that he only voted for me after I accused him.  That is clearly false and therefore suspicious.

I don’t know what to make of the fact that that no one wants to lynch bourbon.  If any of you were the werewolf, you’d want to jump on that bandwagon (unless you were the seer and had seen bourbon was human).  The fact that none of you are jumping on the bandwagon is another small factor in favour of the conclusion that bourbon is the werewolf.

Posted: 28 January 2012 12:31 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 335 ]
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BourbonSamurai is not Fausto Carmona - 28 January 2012 12:30 PM

Yep, my chronology is wrong. My defense is that I am bad at werewolf.

So Bourbon is either lying or mistaken. Mistaken seems more likely to me, but his defense that he was anti-Scotto seems at best rather flimsy right now.

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You don’t give up.  You should, but you don’t.

Posted: 28 January 2012 12:35 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 336 ]
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Daryn - 28 January 2012 12:31 PM

That’s an odd post (351 pm) if he is the werewolf.  Also, as Flounder points out, if Flounder is the seer he is hinting that bourbon is not the werewolf.  But it seems clear that bourbon falsely stated the chronology—he said that he only voted for me after I accused him.  That is clearly false and therefore suspicious.

I don’t know what to make of the fact that that no one wants to lynch bourbon.  If any of you were the werewolf, you’d want to jump on that bandwagon (unless you were the seer and had seen bourbon was human).  The fact that none of you are jumping on the bandwagon is another small factor in favour of the conclusion that bourbon is the werewolf.

I think it is more likely that the werewolf finds it unecessary to jump on me as I am causing a distraction from his werewolfy ways.

I think what I was remembering chronolgy wise was considering switching from daryn to scotto when it looked like we had a tie, but not doing it because daryn accused me. And then it became a moot point.

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I came here in peace, seeking gold and slaves.

Posted: 28 January 2012 12:38 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 337 ]
CW hits the pinata for the candy - 28 January 2012 12:31 PM
BourbonSamurai is not Fausto Carmona - 28 January 2012 12:30 PM

Yep, my chronology is wrong. My defense is that I am bad at werewolf.

So Bourbon is either lying or mistaken. Mistaken seems more likely to me, but his defense that he was anti-Scotto seems at best rather flimsy right now.

The fact that he relied on a mistake to support his position that he was anti-scotto is very fishy.  It likely means he doesn’t know why he was anti-scotto or that the reason is something he wants to hide from us.  Or, as he notes, he could just be bad at werewolf.  I suspected jglb because he proposed a strategy that was helpful to the werewolves—it turns out that he was innocent.

Posted: 28 January 2012 12:39 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 338 ]
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In both post 111 and 171 I accused scotto.

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I came here in peace, seeking gold and slaves.

Posted: 28 January 2012 12:43 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 339 ]
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Meh, I really suck at the subtlety.  Hopefully its not our undoing.

I am the seer.  I picked accent and bourbon, both human, obviously.

So that means the wolf is among jlac, bads, daryn and cw.

So yeah, ixnay on the ourbonbay votes.

Posted: 28 January 2012 12:45 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 340 ]
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Daryn - 28 January 2012 12:38 PM
CW hits the pinata for the candy - 28 January 2012 12:31 PM
BourbonSamurai is not Fausto Carmona - 28 January 2012 12:30 PM

Yep, my chronology is wrong. My defense is that I am bad at werewolf.

So Bourbon is either lying or mistaken. Mistaken seems more likely to me, but his defense that he was anti-Scotto seems at best rather flimsy right now.

The fact that he relied on a mistake to support his position that he was anti-scotto is very fishy.  It likely means he doesn’t know why he was anti-scotto or that the reason is something he wants to hide from us.  Or, as he notes, he could just be bad at werewolf.  I suspected jglb because he proposed a strategy that was helpful to the werewolves—it turns out that he was innocent.

The explanation that best supports BourbonSamurai is that he was joking about scotto due to the running joke about the sheep hearding. But that doesn’t fit with his statements today.

Does this mean you’ve changed your mind about Flounder?

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You don’t give up.  You should, but you don’t.

Posted: 28 January 2012 12:47 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 341 ]
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Flounder: Avowed enemy of inconvenience - 28 January 2012 12:43 PM

Meh, I really suck at the subtlety.  Hopefully its not our undoing.

I am the seer.  I picked accent and bourbon, both human, obviously.

So that means the wolf is among jlac, bads, daryn and cw.

So yeah, ixnay on the ourbonbay votes.

Hmm. Much to think about here.

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You don’t give up.  You should, but you don’t.

Posted: 28 January 2012 12:47 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 342 ]
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Flounder: Avowed enemy of inconvenience - 28 January 2012 12:43 PM

Meh, I really suck at the subtlety.  Hopefully its not our undoing.

I am the seer.  I picked accent and bourbon, both human, obviously.

So that means the wolf is among jlac, bads, daryn and cw.

So yeah, ixnay on the ourbonbay votes.

I think daryn is innocent as he would have likely murdered me to shut me up if he had the chance.

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I came here in peace, seeking gold and slaves.

Posted: 28 January 2012 12:48 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 343 ]
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Like I said, daryn being a wolf seems unlikely, given how he and scotto played yesterday.  So if we* lynch down the jlac, cw, bads line, we will win.

*And by we, I mean you.  My time is growing short, I am afraid.

Posted: 28 January 2012 12:49 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 344 ]
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Daryn - 28 January 2012 12:31 PM

That’s an odd post (351 pm) if he is the werewolf.  Also, as Flounder points out, if Flounder is the seer he is hinting that bourbon is not the werewolf.  But it seems clear that bourbon falsely stated the chronology—he said that he only voted for me after I accused him.  That is clearly false and therefore suspicious.

I don’t know what to make of the fact that that no one wants to lynch bourbon.  If any of you were the werewolf, you’d want to jump on that bandwagon (unless you were the seer and had seen bourbon was human).  The fact that none of you are jumping on the bandwagon is another small factor in favour of the conclusion that bourbon is the werewolf.

Now that Flounder has outed himself, seemingly - I had suspicions along those lines already, but didn’t want to tip my hand yet.

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You don’t give up.  You should, but you don’t.

Posted: 28 January 2012 12:50 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 345 ]

I’ll rescind my vote for bourbon.  Flounder, you were doing a great job as seer.  bourbon was also starting to convince me of his innocence.  Assuming that flounder is telling the truth and I am telling the truth, the wolf is jlac, bads or cw.  Jlac (though he switched later) and cw both voted to kill scotto.  So my guesses are bads, jlac and cw in that order.  We have three guesses, so if flounder and I aren t lying, we have won.

I rescind my vote for bourbon and since I really will be heading out on the road in minutes:  I vote to kill bads85.

Posted: 28 January 2012 12:53 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 346 ]
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CW hits the pinata for the candy - 28 January 2012 12:47 PM
Flounder: Avowed enemy of inconvenience - 28 January 2012 12:43 PM

Meh, I really suck at the subtlety.  Hopefully its not our undoing.

I am the seer.  I picked accent and bourbon, both human, obviously.

So that means the wolf is among jlac, bads, daryn and cw.

So yeah, ixnay on the ourbonbay votes.

Hmm. Much to think about here.

not really.

I am either wolf or seer, as everyone pointed out.

If I am wolf, the real seer claims, and I lose.  I am not that dumb.

Posted: 28 January 2012 12:53 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 347 ]
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CW hits the pinata for the candy - 28 January 2012 12:47 PM
Flounder: Avowed enemy of inconvenience - 28 January 2012 12:43 PM

Meh, I really suck at the subtlety.  Hopefully its not our undoing.

I am the seer.  I picked accent and bourbon, both human, obviously.

So that means the wolf is among jlac, bads, daryn and cw.

So yeah, ixnay on the ourbonbay votes.

Hmm. Much to think about here.

not really.

I am either wolf or seer, as everyone pointed out.

If I am wolf, the real seer claims, and I lose.  I am not that dumb.

Posted: 28 January 2012 12:54 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 348 ]
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Daryn - 28 January 2012 12:50 PM

I’ll rescind my vote for bourbon.  Flounder, you were doing a great job as seer.  bourbon was also starting to convince me of his innocence.  Assuming that flounder is telling the truth and I am telling the truth, the wolf is jlac, bads or cw.  Jlac (though he switched later) and cw both voted to kill scotto.  So my guesses are bads, jlac and cw in that order.  We have three guesses, so if flounder and I aren t lying, we have won.

I rescind my vote for bourbon and since I really will be heading out on the road in minutes:  I vote to kill bads85.

I vote to kill bads85.

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You don’t give up.  You should, but you don’t.

Posted: 28 January 2012 12:57 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 349 ]

Yes, there is absolutely no way a false seer survives three rounds of guesses.  We have to believe flounder at least for now.  A wolf would also be crazy to let him live tomorrow—it is not worth the confusion that would cause to let flounder have another look.  I think.  I guess we’ll see.  But the smart move has to be to believe him for at least this round.

Posted: 28 January 2012 12:57 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 350 ]
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Bads asked a whole lot of questions for a werewolf.

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I came here in peace, seeking gold and slaves.

   
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