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Lycanthropy Think Factory 2012
Posted: 28 January 2012 01:58 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 351 ]
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Imo, bads likely would have voted daryn yesterday if he was a wolf.

I vote for cw.

Posted: 28 January 2012 01:59 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 352 ]

Also, if I were the seer last night, I would have peeked at bourbon.  It was the smart choice.  That helps flounder’s claim that he is telling the truth.

Posted: 28 January 2012 02:00 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 353 ]
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Daryn - 28 January 2012 01:57 PM

Yes, there is absolutely no way a false seer survives three rounds of guesses.  We have to believe flounder at least for now.  A wolf would also be crazy to let him live tomorrow—it is not worth the confusion that would cause to let flounder have another look.  I think.  I guess we’ll see.  But the smart move has to be to believe him for at least this round.

If I’m the wolf, no way I kill flounder tonight. Letting him live throws suspicion on his guesses.

I’d probably kill you if I was the wolf.

 

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I came here in peace, seeking gold and slaves.

Posted: 28 January 2012 02:00 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 354 ]
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Flounder: Avowed enemy of inconvenience - 28 January 2012 01:58 PM

Imo, bads likely would have voted daryn yesterday if he was a wolf.

I vote for cw.

I’m obviously not switching my vote to this.

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You don’t give up.  You should, but you don’t.

Posted: 28 January 2012 02:00 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 355 ]
Flounder: Avowed enemy of inconvenience - 28 January 2012 01:58 PM

Imo, bads likely would have voted daryn yesterday if he was a wolf.

I vote for cw.

That’s a good point.  CW, any reason he would not?  That said, CW almost put the final nail in scotto’s coffin, as did JLAC.

Posted: 28 January 2012 02:02 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 356 ]
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Daryn - 28 January 2012 02:00 PM
Flounder: Avowed enemy of inconvenience - 28 January 2012 01:58 PM

Imo, bads likely would have voted daryn yesterday if he was a wolf.

I vote for cw.

That’s a good point.  CW, any reason he would not?  That said, CW almost put the final nail in scotto’s coffin, as did JLAC.

Had I not switched, there would still have been a plurality to kill you - I believe I did put the nail in the coffin.

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You don’t give up.  You should, but you don’t.

Posted: 28 January 2012 02:03 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 357 ]
BourbonSamurai is not Fausto Carmona - 28 January 2012 02:00 PM
Daryn - 28 January 2012 01:57 PM

Yes, there is absolutely no way a false seer survives three rounds of guesses.  We have to believe flounder at least for now.  A wolf would also be crazy to let him live tomorrow—it is not worth the confusion that would cause to let flounder have another look.  I think.  I guess we’ll see.  But the smart move has to be to believe him for at least this round.

If I’m the wolf, no way I kill flounder tonight. Letting him live throws suspicion on his guesses.

I’d probably kill you if I was the wolf.

 

It is hard to tell your guys’ perspective, but it seems to me that I am most likely just a human out of anyone.  A smart wolf wouldn’t kill someone he was pretty sure wasn’t the seer, I think.  Plus, if the wolf and I survive to the very end, the wolf’s best bet is to say that my game play was an elaborate trick—that’s almost believable if we get to three people left.

Posted: 28 January 2012 02:06 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 358 ]
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bads85 - 27 January 2012 07:53 PM

Upon further reflection, from what little I know now, I stand by my original JLAC vote, especially because of the Teal and Black crack.

Official vote: JLAC

Bads voted before there was any anti scotto momentum. I vote to kill bads85

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I came here in peace, seeking gold and slaves.

Posted: 28 January 2012 02:10 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 359 ]
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Daryn - 28 January 2012 02:03 PM
BourbonSamurai is not Fausto Carmona - 28 January 2012 02:00 PM
Daryn - 28 January 2012 01:57 PM

Yes, there is absolutely no way a false seer survives three rounds of guesses.  We have to believe flounder at least for now.  A wolf would also be crazy to let him live tomorrow—it is not worth the confusion that would cause to let flounder have another look.  I think.  I guess we’ll see.  But the smart move has to be to believe him for at least this round.

If I’m the wolf, no way I kill flounder tonight. Letting him live throws suspicion on his guesses.

I’d probably kill you if I was the wolf.

 

It is hard to tell your guys’ perspective, but it seems to me that I am most likely just a human out of anyone.  A smart wolf wouldn’t kill someone he was pretty sure wasn’t the seer, I think.  Plus, if the wolf and I survive to the very end, the wolf’s best bet is to say that my game play was an elaborate trick—that’s almost believable if we get to three people left.

I am deleting a reply (before posting it) so I don’t give tactical advice to the wolves.

If the seer dies. Do we find out he was the seer?

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I came here in peace, seeking gold and slaves.

Posted: 28 January 2012 02:22 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 360 ]

Yes, we find out if he was a seer.  One reason bads85 wouldn’t have changed his vote to get me out is that he thought I was a goner anyway.  It sure looked that way for awhile.

Posted: 28 January 2012 02:31 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 361 ]

Someone mentioned upthread that JLAC is either a human or (rough paraphrase) “the ballsiest werewolf ever”.

Unfortunately, “ballsiest werewolf ever” is definitely something JLAC would play, IMHO. And as Bourbon points out, bads was asking a lot of questions. Whether they were in good faith, in subterfuge, or in both remains to be seen.

Posted: 28 January 2012 02:33 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 362 ]
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Votes I see up through 361.

Flounder - CW, maybe, in 351
Daryn - bads85 in 345
CW - bads85 in 348
Bourbon - bads85 in 358
Accent - no vote
bads85 - no vote
JLAC - no vote

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Amtrak train 288 with engine 707’s got a clear signal at CP 188, track 2 east.

Posted: 28 January 2012 02:42 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 363 ]
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i vote to kill cw

Posted: 28 January 2012 02:44 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 364 ]
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Accent Shallow - 28 January 2012 02:31 PM

Someone mentioned upthread that JLAC is either a human or (rough paraphrase) “the ballsiest werewolf ever”.

Unfortunately, “ballsiest werewolf ever” is definitely something JLAC would play, IMHO. And as Bourbon points out, bads was asking a lot of questions. Whether they were in good faith, in subterfuge, or in both remains to be seen.

My thought is that CW would have the balls necessary to kill his own partner on day one.

Posted: 28 January 2012 02:46 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 365 ]
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BourbonSamurai is not Fausto Carmona - 28 January 2012 02:06 PM
bads85 - 27 January 2012 07:53 PM

Upon further reflection, from what little I know now, I stand by my original JLAC vote, especially because of the Teal and Black crack.

Official vote: JLAC

Bads voted before there was any anti scotto momentum. I vote to kill bads85

bads voted someone who wasnt daryn when daryn was leading in votes.  a wolf would be quite inclined to stick a vote on daryn there.  In fact that is exactly what scotto did.  bads vote is actually non-wolfy.

Posted: 28 January 2012 02:53 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 366 ]
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363 makes four votes for bads85. He still has all day to change some minds.

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Amtrak train 288 with engine 707’s got a clear signal at CP 188, track 2 east.

Posted: 28 January 2012 02:53 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 367 ]
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Flounder: Avowed enemy of inconvenience - 28 January 2012 02:46 PM
BourbonSamurai is not Fausto Carmona - 28 January 2012 02:06 PM
bads85 - 27 January 2012 07:53 PM

Upon further reflection, from what little I know now, I stand by my original JLAC vote, especially because of the Teal and Black crack.

Official vote: JLAC

Bads voted before there was any anti scotto momentum. I vote to kill bads85

bads voted someone who wasnt daryn when daryn was leading in votes.  a wolf would be quite inclined to stick a vote on daryn there.  In fact that is exactly what scotto did.  bads vote is actually non-wolfy.

But bads is playing for the first time, and so may not follow standard strategy.

If CW is a wolf, I don’t know what to make of his random number idea.

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I came here in peace, seeking gold and slaves.

Posted: 28 January 2012 02:54 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 368 ]
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HCO, Transgressive Herbivore - 28 January 2012 02:53 PM

363 makes four votes for bads85. He still has all day to change some minds.

You may want to read 363 a little closer.

Posted: 28 January 2012 02:56 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 369 ]
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BourbonSamurai is not Fausto Carmona - 28 January 2012 02:53 PM
Flounder: Avowed enemy of inconvenience - 28 January 2012 02:46 PM
BourbonSamurai is not Fausto Carmona - 28 January 2012 02:06 PM
bads85 - 27 January 2012 07:53 PM

Upon further reflection, from what little I know now, I stand by my original JLAC vote, especially because of the Teal and Black crack.

Official vote: JLAC

Bads voted before there was any anti scotto momentum. I vote to kill bads85

bads voted someone who wasnt daryn when daryn was leading in votes.  a wolf would be quite inclined to stick a vote on daryn there.  In fact that is exactly what scotto did.  bads vote is actually non-wolfy.

But bads is playing for the first time, and so may not follow standard strategy.

If CW is a wolf, I don’t know what to make of his random number idea.

True.  Who really knows?  Bads just seemed more clueless villager than clueless wolf.  But I have nothing more than my gut telling me that.

Posted: 28 January 2012 03:05 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 370 ]
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Flounder: Avowed enemy of inconvenience - 28 January 2012 02:54 PM
HCO, Transgressive Herbivore - 28 January 2012 02:53 PM

363 makes four votes for bads85. He still has all day to change some minds.

You may want to read 363 a little closer.

I am pretty dumb.

Votes I see up through 369.

Flounder - CW in 363
Daryn - bads85 in 345
CW - bads85 in 348
Bourbon - bads85 in 358
Accent - no vote
bads85 - no vote
JLAC - no vote

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Amtrak train 288 with engine 707’s got a clear signal at CP 188, track 2 east.

Posted: 28 January 2012 04:21 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 371 ]
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Flounder: Avowed enemy of inconvenience - 28 January 2012 10:36 AM

Unless daryn and scotto were playing very tricky yesterday, I think daryn almost has to be a regular human.  scotto put the fourth vote on daryn (1 away from majority) and daryn was the first one to vote scotto.  With only 2 wolves, I am guessing that they wouldn’t want to sacrifice the other.  Opinions?

Accent and CW also look pretty good for their scotto votes.  Bads had a chance to put the fourth vote on daryn, and voted someone else.  That makes bads look pretty decent. 

That leaves JLAC, Bourbon and myself.  I am a human, and bourbon has convinced me he is just playing his role.

That means I think JLAC is the one with JGLB’s blood on his paws.

I am not the werewolf (duh, everyone says this) and wish I had time to go into greater detail. I have just got back from a full day of family stuff and am about to be reamed out by my wife for something (god knows what) and then off to a social evening where we need to smile and put on the happy faces. Sigh.

I think JGLB was probably offed out of sympathy for his need to be there for his family. I could be wrong. I wish I could examine this statement from Flounder in more detail.

Look, I know that after my near-epic screwup of yesterday, almost letting off a werewolf, my word with you guys is mud. If I am killed I will hardly be surprised. I *think* CW and Accent are fine, Daryn as well. I am suspicious about Flounder, hence my wish to examine this and other Flounder talk in more detail, but for the time being I cannot provide meaningful assistance. Good luck guys.

 

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Brett Lawrie ‏ @blawrie13
Wow do it @2Morrow23 that was some sickkkk stuff tonight maaa dudeeee , great game all around by the boyssss , @jparencibia9 swing it budd!!

Posted: 28 January 2012 04:22 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 372 ]
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I vote to kill BourbonSamurai.

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Brett Lawrie ‏ @blawrie13
Wow do it @2Morrow23 that was some sickkkk stuff tonight maaa dudeeee , great game all around by the boyssss , @jparencibia9 swing it budd!!

Posted: 28 January 2012 04:32 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 373 ]
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J. Lowenstein Apathy Club - 28 January 2012 04:22 PM

I vote to kill BourbonSamurai.

This is a pickle, isn’t it.

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You don’t give up.  You should, but you don’t.

Posted: 28 January 2012 04:41 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 374 ]
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CW hits the pinata for the candy - 28 January 2012 04:32 PM
J. Lowenstein Apathy Club - 28 January 2012 04:22 PM

I vote to kill BourbonSamurai.

This is a pickle, isn’t it.

I am just trying to do something that I can stand behind but doesn’t decide things, because I simply can’t be responsive. I *will* try to check in, I think our friends have wi-fi and I will bring the netbook j/i/c

Apparently I get the silent treatment a little while longer. Sigh. Can’t WAIT for this one to be off.

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Brett Lawrie ‏ @blawrie13
Wow do it @2Morrow23 that was some sickkkk stuff tonight maaa dudeeee , great game all around by the boyssss , @jparencibia9 swing it budd!!

Posted: 28 January 2012 07:13 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 375 ]
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Note: if no majority vote is achieved, I may use the plurality. Or I may devise some new scheme. It will be a surprise! Assume that if there is no majority you will be killed.

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Amtrak train 288 with engine 707’s got a clear signal at CP 188, track 2 east.

   
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