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Pedro’s BABIP, Fluke or skill?
Posted: 10 August 2006 09:45 AM   [ Ignore ]

Pedro Martinez is leading the National League in Opponent’s slugging percentage.That usually wouldn’t be a surprise considering the fact that he is Pedro Martinez. That being said, Pedro is doing so despite the fact that he is giving up 1.26 home runs/9 innings pitched. Pedro’s strikeout rate is a healthy 9.22 k/9 but that’s not the primary reason he’s leading the league in slugging percentage against. Pedro’s BABIP is an abnormally low .224 this season right now. Normally, that could be chalked up to small sample size but this year is continuing a trend that was evident last season. Pedro’s BABIP last season was .241. Why is Pedro’s BABIP so low as a Met? Pedro’s BABIP have been in the normal range for most of his career. Is it just a fluke? Are roughly 340 innings a big enough sample to suggest otherwise? Here are some things that I think might be possible explanations:

1) Pedro has become an extreme flyball pitcher. His G/F ratio is .73.
2) Pedro has been unlucky to have given up so many homers and that some of the homers “should” be extra base hits. (Pedro’s given up 17 homers but only 13 doubles and 1 triple.)

Posted: 10 August 2006 01:20 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1 ]

Or he’s getting better run support and can afford to go after hitters more aggressively. Which could lead to fewer walks and pitching from the stretch less often.


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Posted: 10 August 2006 03:19 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 2 ]

re: #1

the mets have a very good FB defense.  Last year, Floyd, Beltran, Cameron.  Now, Floyd, Beltran, Chavez/Milledge.  That’s two CF and a good corner guy.  I don’t know if he’ll continue to be that low, but he’s a good bet to keep his BABIP below the league average.

Posted: 10 August 2006 04:47 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 3 ]

I think that DCA raises a very good point about the Mets outfield.

However, I’m not sure that I buy the run support argument. He had a fantastic lineup in Boston but still had an average BABIP. Your second explanation about home runs is certainly possible, but it isn’t as strong as the first one.

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