Here’s a look at some of the Marcel projections (developed by Tango Tiger) for OPS+ I calculated before the 2006 season, and how they compared to reality:
The biggest overachievers:
name proj act diff
Wes Helms 98 149 +51
Jermaine Dye 101 152 +51
Garrett Atkins 92 138 +46
Carlos Beltran 115 153 +38
Justin Morneau 103 140 +37
Marlon Anderson 85 121 +36
Travis Hafner 148 183 +35
Scott Spiezio 86 121 +35
Matt Holliday 108 139 +31
Joe Mauer 113 144 +31
Adam LaRoche 102 133 +31
Jose Reyes 87 118 +31
The biggest underachievers:
Barry Bonds 204 156 -48
Jose Guillen 120 73 -47
Javy Lopez 122 76 -46
Lew Ford 103 57 -46
Rondell White 112 66 -46
Vinny Castilla 96 51 -45
John Mabry 97 53 -44
Russ Adams 95 54 -41
Angel Berroa 88 48 -40
Melvin Mora 129 91 -38
And, always the most interesting category, the guys who hit their projections right on the nose:
Jeff Kent 120 118 -2
Jay Payton 96 94 -2
Scott Rolen 129 127 -2
Geoff Blum 75 73 -2
Ramon Martinez 81 79 -2
Troy Glaus 121 119 -2
Doug Mientkiewicz 96 94 -2
Bengie Molina 99 98 -1
Jason Bay 137 136 -1
Vladimir Guerrero 145 144 -1
Mike Lowell 106 106 0
A.J. Pierzynski 95 95 0
Bobby Abreu 129 129 0
Aaron Miles 75 75 0
Jay Gibbons 105 106 +1
Ramon Hernandez 110 111 +1
Aramis Ramirez 124 126 +2