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Marcel projections & results

Posted: 17 November 2006 10:20 AM

[ Ignore ]

Here’s a look at some of the Marcel projections (developed by Tango Tiger) for OPS+ I calculated before the 2006 season, and how they compared to reality:

The biggest overachievers:

name              proj act  diff

Wes Helms          98  149  +51
Jermaine Dye      101  152  +51
Garrett Atkins     92  138  +46
Carlos Beltran    115  153  +38
Justin Morneau    103  140  +37
Marlon Anderson    85  121  +36
Travis Hafner     148  183  +35
Scott Spiezio      86  121  +35
Matt Holliday     108  139  +31
Joe Mauer         113  144  +31
Adam LaRoche      102  133  +31
Jose Reyes         87  118  +31 

The biggest underachievers:

Barry Bonds       204  156  -48
Jose Guillen      120   73  -47
Javy Lopez        122   76  -46
Lew Ford          103   57  -46
Rondell White     112   66  -46
Vinny Castilla     96   51  -45
John Mabry         97   53  -44
Russ Adams         95   54  -41
Angel Berroa       88   48  -40
Melvin Mora       129   91  -38 

And, always the most interesting category, the guys who hit their projections right on the nose:

Jeff Kent         120  118  -2
Jay Payton         96   94  -2
Scott Rolen       129  127  -2
Geoff Blum         75   73  -2
Ramon Martinez     81   79  -2
Troy Glaus        121  119  -2
Doug Mientkiewicz  96   94  -2
Bengie Molina      99   98  -1
Jason Bay         137  136  -1
Vladimir Guerrero 145  144  -1
Mike Lowell       106  106   0
A.J. Pierzynski    95   95   0
Bobby Abreu       129  129   0
Aaron Miles        75   75   0
Jay Gibbons       105  106  +1
Ramon Hernandez   110  111  +1
Aramis Ramirez    124  126  +2 

Posted: 17 November 2006 10:23 AM

[ Ignore ] [ # 1 ]

DCW3

And here are the 20 batters with the highest OPS+ projections for 2007:

B Bonds      171
A Pujols     166
T Hafner     161
D Ortiz      149
M Ramirez    148
L Berkman    148
R Howard     147
M Cabrera    147
V Guerrero   142
A Rodriguez  140
J Bay        135
D Lee        134
J Giambi     134
C Delgado    133
C Jones      132
D Wright     132
J Drew       132
J Thome      131
N Johnson    131
T Helton     130 

Posted: 17 November 2006 10:57 AM

[ Ignore ] [ # 2 ]

DCW3

And, even though the pitching projections don’t seem to be as effective as the offensive ones (maybe just because ERA is a less stable metric than OPS), here are the top 20 pitchers in projected ERA+ (min. 400 IP between 2004 and 2006):

R Clemens    160
J Santana    149
R Halladay   138
R Oswalt     133
C Zambrano   132
C Carpenter  132
B Webb       131
A Pettitte   123
D Willis     122
J Smoltz     122
B Sheets     122
B Arroyo     121
J Peavy      120
C Sabathia   118
K Escobar    115
P Martinez   115
J Lackey     114
A Harang     114
M Buehrle    114
J Schmidt    112 

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