According to Baseball Prospectus, after last night’s loss to the Pirates, the Philllies have a 4.576% chance of making the postseason. throug the games of April 28. Although they are in 3rd place, they have less than a third the chance of fourth place Washington (17.4%) or last place Florida (14.4%). The Braves aren’t much better at 11.6%, and the Mets are practically shoe-ins at 68.3%.
The PECOTA adjuster version isn’t much better at 6.42%, but at least is better than the Nats and Marlins.