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Monday, July 25, 2011

Mets (50-51) @ Reds (50-51), Monday, July 25, 2011, 7:10pm

NYM: R.A. Dickey (36, RHP, 4-8, 3.80)
CIN: Mike Leake (23, RHP, 8-5, 4.11)

The Primer Chimp Posted: July 25, 2011 at 01:00 PM | 68 comment(s)
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Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Sam M. Posted: July 25, 2011 at 07:53 PM (#3884908)
So I'm going to tonight's game. My last hurrah, presumably, with Wright, Reyes, and Beltran. There's always the chance they don't trade Carlos I, of course, or that somehow they bring him back over the winter. But those are surely pipe dreams. There's no real reason to keep him, since he can't be offered arbitration to collect compensatory draft picks. Like it or not they are going to cut payroll substantially -- and the only realistic ways to do that are to not bring back Beltran, and/or not to sign Jose Reyes. Of those two options, I have to accept not bringing back the 34 year old corner outfielder leaving his prime behind, in the hope of retaining the home-grown superstar shortstop in the midst of his.

So tonight, I hope Carlos Beltran single-handedly beats the Reds. Or that he does it in combination with Wright and Reyes, the way it should have been happening repeatedly ever since he came to New York. Here's to a great night at the Great American Ballpark.
   2. AJMcCringleberry Posted: July 25, 2011 at 11:22 PM (#3885097)
Yeah, I don't want Beltran to leave, but it's better for the Mets if he does.
   3. AJMcCringleberry Posted: July 25, 2011 at 11:35 PM (#3885104)
Dammit Murphy.
   4. AJMcCringleberry Posted: July 25, 2011 at 11:44 PM (#3885111)
Someone needs to tell Keith there was baseball before 1974.
   5. Banta Posted: July 25, 2011 at 11:57 PM (#3885117)
Miguel Cairo HAS fashioned himself quite the career... I didn't realize he was still playing, let alone the fact that he's actually been useful the last two years.
   6. Banta Posted: July 25, 2011 at 11:59 PM (#3885119)
To expand on that, fun with dWAR: last year Cairo was -.6. This year? .5 already.

If I ever wanted to fight, I'd bring that up on the mainland every time I blindly see yearly WAR cited. How can a stat be any good if a large part of it is subject to that much noise?

Career WAR seems useful however.
   7. Banta Posted: July 26, 2011 at 12:01 AM (#3885120)
Also, in case anyone was thinking, Cairo has had virtually the same usage this year as last year, position wise.
   8. AJMcCringleberry Posted: July 26, 2011 at 12:03 AM (#3885123)
I don't want to fight either, but why can't someone have a good year one year and a bad year another defensively? It happens on offense all the time.
   9. Banta Posted: July 26, 2011 at 12:05 AM (#3885124)
Pridie would be a more effective offensive player if his game didn't rely on hitting so many flyballs, as he doesn't have major league power.

I doubt he can change that though.
   10. AJMcCringleberry Posted: July 26, 2011 at 12:10 AM (#3885127)
Bay seems to make a lot of nice catches.
   11. Banta Posted: July 26, 2011 at 12:12 AM (#3885130)
I don't want to fight either, but why can't someone have a good year one year and a bad year another defensively?

Certainly. But it seems to me that defensive WAR fluctuates way more than any offensive measure. I don't doubt that what you say is true, but I think it's on a much smaller level than the numbers indicate. I keep on looking at players and I routinely see a seesaw.

Plus, on a biased note, I just can't believe that Reyes is -.4 this year. I mean, that's saying that that he's -.4 below replacement?? You call up a replacement level shortstop and he'll outproduce Reyes defensively? I hold no illusions that Reyes is sensational, but if he isn't at least average, then I don't know ####.

Which I admit, is possible.
   12. Arbitol Dijaler Posted: July 26, 2011 at 12:14 AM (#3885133)
Like it or not they are going to cut payroll substantially -- and the only realistic ways to do that are to not bring back Beltran


Really? I mean, he ain't getting $17 million next year. He's probably in Vladdy type contract zone. If he's $4 or 6 million in 2012, I say bring him back. Fartinez ain't banging down the door.
   13. Banta Posted: July 26, 2011 at 12:14 AM (#3885134)
Bay does have .3 dWAR!

And 0 last year.

But -6.2 for his career!
   14. Banta Posted: July 26, 2011 at 12:17 AM (#3885135)
Here's another WAR example that doesn't jive with me... see, in general, I seem to think that dWAR is set too low... or rather replacement is set too high. But then I see a year like last year where Pagan has 2.2 dWAR... that seems absurdly high to me (not that I don't believe he had a much better year last year, it's just that I don't believe the extremes are that wide, I suppose).

Which is just another way of saying I don't think defense is as important as WAR makes it out to be... which is a position that I can't defend mathematically and in fact, is completely worthless. So, uh... sorry for wasting everyone's time!
   15. AJMcCringleberry Posted: July 26, 2011 at 12:26 AM (#3885138)
Plus, on a biased note, I just can't believe that Reyes is -.4 this year. I mean, that's saying that that he's -.4 below replacement?

Replacement level for defense is average.
   16. Banta Posted: July 26, 2011 at 12:31 AM (#3885139)
Replacement level for defense is average.

Well, I'm stupid and that's stupid. Shouldn't it be called dWAA?
   17. Banta Posted: July 26, 2011 at 12:48 AM (#3885145)
Turner's arm blows. That relay throw made me puke in my mouth a little bit.
   18. Zeba Zeba Eata Posted: July 26, 2011 at 12:58 AM (#3885149)
It appears as though the mets just got hosed.
   19. Sam M. Posted: July 26, 2011 at 12:59 AM (#3885150)
So is it just me, or is Phillips kind of a Grade B Mets killer?

It'd be a lot more fun here if we got a few runs about now.
   20. Zeba Zeba Eata Posted: July 26, 2011 at 01:01 AM (#3885152)
And Turner gets rewarded with a garbage hit. Come on, Carlos.
   21. Banta Posted: July 26, 2011 at 01:04 AM (#3885156)
Yay, Professional Piss Tits!
   22. Sam M. Posted: July 26, 2011 at 01:04 AM (#3885157)
Time for some Beltran heroics.

The ball Jose fouled straight back was about five feet beneath where I could have caught it.
   23. Sam M. Posted: July 26, 2011 at 01:05 AM (#3885158)
Time for some Beltran heroics.

The ball Jose fouled straight back was about five feet beneath where I could have caught it.
   24. AJMcCringleberry Posted: July 26, 2011 at 01:06 AM (#3885159)
I'll take. Come on, David!
   25. AJMcCringleberry Posted: July 26, 2011 at 01:06 AM (#3885160)
That should be 'I'll take it'.
   26. Banta Posted: July 26, 2011 at 01:08 AM (#3885161)
David's OPS+ is up over 120 now. Rather remarkable how quickly he rectified that.
   27. Zeba Zeba Eata Posted: July 26, 2011 at 01:09 AM (#3885162)
Woo Murphy!!
   28. Banta Posted: July 26, 2011 at 01:09 AM (#3885163)
God Daniel Murphy has gotten a lot of big hits this year.

That's gotta be good for you, Sam!
   29. AJMcCringleberry Posted: July 26, 2011 at 01:09 AM (#3885164)
Murphy! Showing off for Sam.
   30. Banta Posted: July 26, 2011 at 01:10 AM (#3885166)
Bay got a double? WTF?
   31. Zeba Zeba Eata Posted: July 26, 2011 at 01:11 AM (#3885167)
A double for Bay! The sky is falling!!
   32. AJMcCringleberry Posted: July 26, 2011 at 01:11 AM (#3885168)
Even Bay gets in on the action.
   33. Sam M. Posted: July 26, 2011 at 01:12 AM (#3885169)
I was right. This is much more fun now.
   34. Banta Posted: July 26, 2011 at 01:15 AM (#3885170)
I'd like to see the Mets use more Murphy at second the rest of the year and play Duda at first. Of course, if they trade Beltran, they're probably gonna keep the same formation (with Duda in right), but I think Murphy's future with the Mets can only be as a second baseman and if his D is truly adequate, he'd be quite the asset there.
   35. Lassus Posted: July 26, 2011 at 01:19 AM (#3885172)
Whoa, we're ahead!

That's nice to see.
   36. Zeba Zeba Eata Posted: July 26, 2011 at 01:22 AM (#3885173)
Murphy does a lot of odd things on the baseball field.
   37. Banta Posted: July 26, 2011 at 01:23 AM (#3885176)
I wish Collins would go a little bit longer with his starters sometimes. Especially since the pen isn't exactly deep.
   38. AJMcCringleberry Posted: July 26, 2011 at 01:24 AM (#3885178)
True, though they might want to see how Duda can handle right for next year.
   39. AJMcCringleberry Posted: July 26, 2011 at 01:24 AM (#3885179)
38 was a response to 34.
   40. AJMcCringleberry Posted: July 26, 2011 at 01:26 AM (#3885183)
He was out!
   41. Zeba Zeba Eata Posted: July 26, 2011 at 01:26 AM (#3885184)
OUT
   42. Banta Posted: July 26, 2011 at 01:27 AM (#3885185)
True, though they might want to see how Duda can handle right for next year.

That's a good point, but I'd think that Murphy at second is still more of a question mark than Duda in the outfield.

I might be overestimating Duda though.
   43. Lassus Posted: July 26, 2011 at 01:27 AM (#3885186)
Tsk.

Great throw, not fair to Thole that call ended up bad.

Pedro, WTF.
   44. AJMcCringleberry Posted: July 26, 2011 at 01:27 AM (#3885187)
Remember when Beato was good?
   45. Banta Posted: July 26, 2011 at 01:28 AM (#3885188)
And now we have to make 17 pitching changes.

Do something good, Byrd, so we can eject you for a roulette spin (tired of saying lotto ticket).
   46. Sam M. Posted: July 26, 2011 at 01:29 AM (#3885189)
You can just imagine how I feel how walking Cairo on 4 pitches to bring up Bruce as the go-ahead run. Damn Beato.
   47. AJMcCringleberry Posted: July 26, 2011 at 01:31 AM (#3885190)
That's a good point, but I'd think that Murphy at second is still more of a question mark than Duda in the outfield.

Yeah. They could move Turner to first, doesn't seem like something they'd do though.
   48. Zeba Zeba Eata Posted: July 26, 2011 at 01:31 AM (#3885191)
Timmy.
   49. Lassus Posted: July 26, 2011 at 01:32 AM (#3885192)
I don't really have any faith in Byrdak, so thank got that turned out ok.
   50. Banta Posted: July 26, 2011 at 01:32 AM (#3885194)
Remember when Beato was good?

Beginner's luck. Or divine idiocy... he seemed to be unshakable when he first came up. His body language has not been the same in quite some time.

Nicely done, Byrdak! Look at that, contending teams! LOOGY FOR SALE
   51. AJMcCringleberry Posted: July 26, 2011 at 01:32 AM (#3885195)
Woo Byrd!
   52. Lassus Posted: July 26, 2011 at 01:32 AM (#3885196)
Er, god.
   53. Sam M. Posted: July 26, 2011 at 01:42 AM (#3885205)
Any word on why no Pagan? Ill-effects from the heat yesterday, I assume?
   54. Zeba Zeba Eata Posted: July 26, 2011 at 01:46 AM (#3885208)
Where was that pitch? Ugh.
   55. Lassus Posted: July 26, 2011 at 01:46 AM (#3885209)
Oh jesus, Parnell.
   56. Zeba Zeba Eata Posted: July 26, 2011 at 01:48 AM (#3885212)
Pagan went for tests today - apparently he had been feeling tired towards the end of games before yesterday's heat effects.
   57. Zeba Zeba Eata Posted: July 26, 2011 at 01:50 AM (#3885215)
Way to bounce back, Bobby.
   58. Sam M. Posted: July 26, 2011 at 01:53 AM (#3885222)
Nice that Dusty fired the Votto bullet and it came up empty. Now we won't face him on the 9th.
   59. Banta Posted: July 26, 2011 at 02:03 AM (#3885232)
See post 36.
   60. Zeba Zeba Eata Posted: July 26, 2011 at 02:03 AM (#3885233)
That was... interesting...
   61. Sam M. Posted: July 26, 2011 at 02:04 AM (#3885234)
So graceful, Daniel....
   62. AJMcCringleberry Posted: July 26, 2011 at 02:07 AM (#3885238)
Dammit Wright.
   63. Zeba Zeba Eata Posted: July 26, 2011 at 02:12 AM (#3885246)
This is more stressful than it needs to be.
   64. Sam M. Posted: July 26, 2011 at 02:12 AM (#3885247)
I have a bad feeling about this ....
   65. AJMcCringleberry Posted: July 26, 2011 at 02:13 AM (#3885250)
Ugh.
   66. Zeba Zeba Eata Posted: July 26, 2011 at 02:15 AM (#3885252)
Fortunately, it's not like a Mets killer is up... oh wait.
   67. Zeba Zeba Eata Posted: July 26, 2011 at 02:17 AM (#3885255)
Yeah Izzy!!!
   68. AJMcCringleberry Posted: July 26, 2011 at 02:17 AM (#3885256)
Izzy!
   69. Banta Posted: July 26, 2011 at 02:18 AM (#3885258)
Well done, Izzy.

They grow up so fast!!
   70. Sam M. Posted: July 26, 2011 at 04:48 AM (#3885384)
Just back from Cincinnati. That was fun -- if typically tense in the final execution.

Daniel Murphy . . . kid can hit the ball, can't he? Gotta love that, but no truer words have been spoken than # 36.

A nice sprinkling of Mets' fans at the GAB tonight -- many Reyes and Wright jerseys, a couple of Piazzas, too. Reds' fans are friendly, but the one sitting next to me was of no use at all on the scoreboard trivia question, which was to name the five active relievers with 250 or more career saves. I got K-Rod, Izzy, Nathan, and Rivera immediately, and asked him for help with the fifth, and he was no use, even though it turned out to be the Reds' own Francisco Cordero. Damn.

Wright seems a lot rustier in the field than at the plate. I guess if I had to choose, that's the way I'd take it . . .

Seeing Jose Reyes's arm in person is always a real treat. I wonder if they've ever put the radar gun on his throws? What pop . . . .

If Isringhausen can impart some of his experience and pitching poise to Bobby Parnell (or if Parnell can give his arm to Izzy) in the next two months, it will be well worth keeping him around for the long-term benefits it will give the Mets. Sharpening the slider wouldn't hurt, of course.

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