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Saturday, September 17, 2011

Rays (83-67) @ RedSox (87-63), Saturday, September 17, 2011, 4:10pm

TBR: Jeff Niemann (28, RHP, 10-7, 3.97)
BOS: Jon Lester (27, LHP, 15-7, 3.07)

The Primer Chimp Posted: September 17, 2011 at 01:00 PM | 238 comment(s)
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   1. tfbg9 Posted: September 17, 2011 at 06:24 PM (#3928105)
The only line I could get, it may not be the real, up-to-date line, but the NY Post has the Sox as 8-9 favorites today(I usually just average the DRF's various non-opening betting line sources--I avoid using any other betting site, since gambling sites are notorious virus-givers, anyway...today the DRF has no BOS/TB line for some reason).

So Bivvo, for an 8-9 baseball line, you go like this: 8.5/8.5 + 5 = .6296, therefore...Vegas has the Sox about 63% to win this ballgame.

Maybe Lester was able to hack-up that apple that was lodged in his throat last time out?
   2. Darren Posted: September 17, 2011 at 08:15 PM (#3928162)
Looking good so far! Ugh.
   3. Darren Posted: September 17, 2011 at 08:18 PM (#3928168)
That's going to boost Pedroia's UZR.

Lester looks crappy.
   4. Dan Posted: September 17, 2011 at 08:19 PM (#3928172)
Off to a great start, Jon.
   5. Darren Posted: September 17, 2011 at 08:19 PM (#3928173)
Well, that was not at all suprising. We are losing 2-0 in the first, like EVERY OTHER GAME.
   6. Dan Posted: September 17, 2011 at 08:20 PM (#3928174)
Why do the Rays take better advantage of Fenway than the Red Sox do?
   7. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: September 17, 2011 at 08:21 PM (#3928176)
I can't believe I'm listening to a ####### radio feed this afternoon.
   8. Darren Posted: September 17, 2011 at 08:21 PM (#3928177)
They were saying in the intro that Lester is a big-game pitcher, but I'm not so sure. I don't recall him coming up big in especially big spots. He seems like he comes up just short in big games--but maybe 2008 stuck with me too much.
   9. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: September 17, 2011 at 08:21 PM (#3928178)
Gameday has both pitches painting the corner.
   10. Darren Posted: September 17, 2011 at 08:22 PM (#3928179)
Lester can still have a good game if he straightens out. I don't feel very confident that he will.
   11. Darren Posted: September 17, 2011 at 08:24 PM (#3928183)
Those didn't look like terrible calls to me. They were close, sure, and I think the 2nd one is usually called a strike. But I don't feel like he got hosed. I'm far more upset with the way Lester is pitching.
   12. Dan Posted: September 17, 2011 at 08:24 PM (#3928185)
I can't believe I'm listening to a ####### radio feed this afternoon.


Use a foreign proxy to watch on MLB.tv. That's what I'm doing.
   13. Darren Posted: September 17, 2011 at 08:24 PM (#3928186)
Please explain....
   14. Dale Sams Posted: September 17, 2011 at 08:24 PM (#3928187)
Darren, from memory you're mostly correct. Last outing notwithstanding, he doesn't completly #### the bed, but I can't remember him as a "This line, no further" guy either. It was however, the 2008 alds that made me buy a Jon Lester jersey.
   15. Answer Guy Posted: September 17, 2011 at 08:24 PM (#3928188)
With Lester now sucking, there's literally nothing in the pitching staff that's dependable anymore. They better score a bunch of runs today.
   16. Dan Posted: September 17, 2011 at 08:25 PM (#3928191)
Those pitches were both off the plate. They looked closer than they were due to this shitty camera angle, since we're used to the straight on CF shot at Fenway that NESN uses.
   17. Darren Posted: September 17, 2011 at 08:26 PM (#3928195)
I can't believe that they are inflicting the Mets game on New York viewers when they could be watching this.


Now that pitch to Ellsbury was a very wide strike--seems inconsistent.
   18. Darren Posted: September 17, 2011 at 08:28 PM (#3928198)
Niemann is going to carve us up today. He looks like he's going to cruise. Yes, I"ve decided this after 1 batter.
   19. Darren Posted: September 17, 2011 at 08:29 PM (#3928202)
I think every team should play their 3rd baseman on the line vs. Pedroia.
   20. plink Posted: September 17, 2011 at 08:29 PM (#3928203)
#14: I could not for the life of me figure out what "alds" were. Best I could do was a misspelling of "ads".
   21. Answer Guy Posted: September 17, 2011 at 08:30 PM (#3928205)
The June/July version of this team seems like it was 3-4 years ago now.
   22. Darren Posted: September 17, 2011 at 08:30 PM (#3928206)
You look absurd in that bow-tie, robothal. You go get a big makeover and then do that to yourself?
   23. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: September 17, 2011 at 08:30 PM (#3928207)
I liked it better when we scored right after they scored.
   24. Dan Posted: September 17, 2011 at 08:30 PM (#3928208)
Gonzalez's plate discipline has completely vanished.
   25. Dale Sams Posted: September 17, 2011 at 08:32 PM (#3928211)
Supposedly Gonzo's surgically repaired shoulder has no strength...maybe that accounts for being unable to stop those check swings?
   26. Darren Posted: September 17, 2011 at 08:33 PM (#3928212)
He simply can't lay off the junk in the dirt. I wonder if it's because he has to cheat to compensate for his shoulder. The mystery is that he's somehow still been able to hit .330+.
   27. Dan Posted: September 17, 2011 at 08:33 PM (#3928213)
Anyway, Mikael, you use MLB.tv, right? Or do you have EI?

If you use MLB.tv, if you set a foreign proxy for HTTPS connections before loading the game, it will tell MLB.com that you're located wherever that proxy server is located, and you can get nationally blacked out games.
   28. Darren Posted: September 17, 2011 at 08:34 PM (#3928216)

Supposedly Gonzo's surgically repaired shoulder has no strength...maybe that accounts for being unable to stop those check swings?


Impossible. There's no way the Red Sox would trade their top picks for such a player and then sign him to a 7-year/$150 mil extension. Right?
   29. Dale Sams Posted: September 17, 2011 at 08:35 PM (#3928221)
That said, about Gonzo, I checked his stats and he's the same player he was at the beginning of the month without a crapload of Ks or anything.
   30. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: September 17, 2011 at 08:40 PM (#3928227)
If you use MLB.tv, if you set a foreign proxy for HTTPS connections before loading the game, it will tell MLB.com that you're located wherever that proxy server is located, and you can get nationally blacked out games.
Thanks. I looked it up, it seemed difficult, and in theory I need to write tonight, so I'm semi-multi-tasking.
   31. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: September 17, 2011 at 08:42 PM (#3928229)
Gonzalez has a 1000 OPS with great all around numbers in September. He's traded some homers for singles and doubles, and he's been just plain awesome all year.

Gonzalez's coldest month he was still above 800 OPS.
   32. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: September 17, 2011 at 08:44 PM (#3928233)
Complaints about Gonzalez - who has also been a brilliant defensive 1B - really sound like crazytalk to me. What, exactly, do you expect your first baseman to do? Never strike out ever? He's awesome.
   33. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: September 17, 2011 at 08:44 PM (#3928234)
Plus, Gonzalez is just such an intelligent and creative baseball player. I love watching him out there.
   34. Dan Posted: September 17, 2011 at 08:45 PM (#3928236)
My concern with Gonzalez is that his walks and power are down, and his BABIP seems unsustainable. He's still had a good year, but I don't think he's likely to have another year with this specific shape to his production.
   35. Dan Posted: September 17, 2011 at 08:48 PM (#3928241)
Why does it seem like the Rays are in the right position on every single ball put in play?
   36. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: September 17, 2011 at 08:48 PM (#3928242)
I'm so glad it's over, Ray told me so. Fortunately there is no requirement that the Sox actually win more than one out of four games so we're good.

Gonzalez BABIP is unsustainable (last I checked it was some ludicrous .380-.390 something) but I think it's fair to expect it to be unusually high, particularly for a slow guy like him. He seems to have hit a LOT of balls off the wall that increase his BABIP but are not playable and I think that's likely to continue.
   37. nick swisher hygiene Posted: September 17, 2011 at 08:51 PM (#3928246)
Adrian Gonzales has a babip of .376, one stolen base, and no triples.......that combination says to me something like "this SOB hits the ball hard all the time."
   38. Dan Posted: September 17, 2011 at 08:51 PM (#3928247)
According to Rosenthal:

Adrian Gonzalez shoulder issue natural byproduct of surgery. Should be fine down road.
   39. nick swisher hygiene Posted: September 17, 2011 at 08:53 PM (#3928248)
ok, I owe all you damn Sox fans cokes...
   40. Dan Posted: September 17, 2011 at 08:53 PM (#3928249)
Adrian Gonzales has a babip of .376, one stolen base, and no triples.......that combination says to me something like "this SOB hits the ball hard all the time."


He has 3 triples.
   41. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: September 17, 2011 at 08:54 PM (#3928250)
It's not like Gonzalez hasn't been hitting the ball hard. If he's hitting fewer homers, that means more of his well-struck hits have remained in the park. He's been doing sort of a Boggsian thing, just squaring the ball up and hitting it on a line, using the park brilliantly well.
   42. Knock on any Iorg Posted: September 17, 2011 at 08:55 PM (#3928251)
So THAT is how Moneyball works, huh?
   43. Joel W Posted: September 17, 2011 at 08:57 PM (#3928254)
He has the same ISO as last year and has 72 XBH as compared to 64 in a full season last year. HRs have become doubles. At home he has a bunch of singles, which I imagine would be doubles if he weren't so damn slow.
   44. Dan Posted: September 17, 2011 at 08:58 PM (#3928256)
I'll be honest, I didn't realize his ISO had rebounded that much. It was under .200 last time I really looked at his stats.
   45. Dan Posted: September 17, 2011 at 09:00 PM (#3928257)
His walk rate has crept back up to where it's not worrying lower than his last few seasons too, actually.
   46. nick swisher hygiene Posted: September 17, 2011 at 09:03 PM (#3928261)
4--yup, just checked again......doing a search for similar combos post-1945 I get about 50% Red Sox seasons, so it's a Fenway thing, as most of you guys already suspected....
   47. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: September 17, 2011 at 09:05 PM (#3928263)
So, Mike Aviles - clutch or clutchiest?
   48. Dan Posted: September 17, 2011 at 09:05 PM (#3928264)
Why in the world didn't Crawford slide on that?
   49. Dale Sams Posted: September 17, 2011 at 09:06 PM (#3928265)
So..40 posts sayin AGon is fine...which he is.

When you're sending out two of the worst SP's in the league every five games...it magnifys all the little things, like Crawford not sliding a billion pct.

I'm jus sayin...
   50. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: September 17, 2011 at 09:06 PM (#3928266)
Radio guys think Scutaro only signaled with one hand, late, and Crawford missed it.
   51. Dan Posted: September 17, 2011 at 09:07 PM (#3928267)
Well ####, now the wild pitch is the difference in the score.
   52. Joel W Posted: September 17, 2011 at 09:08 PM (#3928268)
I wish Castiglione wouldn't make it sound like every ball hit in the air is a HR, always.
   53. Dan Posted: September 17, 2011 at 09:08 PM (#3928269)
Vasgersian acted like that was a home run as well, FWIW. It really looked better off the bat.
   54. Dale Sams Posted: September 17, 2011 at 09:10 PM (#3928270)
Niemann bears down more on the guys he considers easy outs, and he's going to be big trouble. Come on guys, more patience please.

Maddon would be a lot more bearable if he got off his Red Sox conspiricy horse.
   55. nick swisher hygiene Posted: September 17, 2011 at 09:11 PM (#3928272)
for 4 read 40....
   56. Dan Posted: September 17, 2011 at 09:12 PM (#3928274)
I still think Maddon is the best manager in MLB, even if he does say some crazy things.
   57. Benji Gil Gamesh Rises Posted: September 17, 2011 at 09:14 PM (#3928275)
Hey gents, how are the pants?
   58. Ray (RDP) Posted: September 17, 2011 at 09:15 PM (#3928276)
A sacrifice in the 3rd inning with 0 outs and a man on second.

Can we please get a real manager.
   59. dave h Posted: September 17, 2011 at 09:15 PM (#3928277)
Did I miss Maddon say something in-game or something? I have the game on mute.
   60. Dale Sams Posted: September 17, 2011 at 09:15 PM (#3928278)
Maddon is just as guilty as anyone of playing 'guys who look like lead-off guys' but have no business being so, as anyone.

He's funny, he's good for quotes, but he's also a whiny #####.
   61. Joel W Posted: September 17, 2011 at 09:15 PM (#3928279)
The pants are in a bunch more than they are wet.
   62. Dan Posted: September 17, 2011 at 09:15 PM (#3928280)
Scutaro is so, so bad at tagging runners. Damon should have been out easily, but instead he might have even been safe.
   63. Lassus Posted: September 17, 2011 at 09:16 PM (#3928281)
I don't think he was safe at all. That replay doesn't show much.
   64. Dale Sams Posted: September 17, 2011 at 09:16 PM (#3928282)
Did I miss Maddon say something in-game or something? I have the game on mute.


No, but he's always complaining about umps and hinting that the league doesn't want the Rays in the playoffs.
   65. Joel W Posted: September 17, 2011 at 09:17 PM (#3928283)
Maddon is like Phil Jackson in that way then. He frankly has the same smirk.
   66. Knock on any Iorg Posted: September 17, 2011 at 09:18 PM (#3928284)
the league doesn't want the Rays in the playoffs.

Is he right?
   67. Dale Sams Posted: September 17, 2011 at 09:19 PM (#3928286)
Is he right?


Does Selig, Torre, and a bunch of umpires actually get together and say, "Man, you know the league is going to lose a crapload of money if the Rays make it?"
   68. Knock on any Iorg Posted: September 17, 2011 at 09:21 PM (#3928287)
Selig's altruism is well known.
   69. Joel W Posted: September 17, 2011 at 09:21 PM (#3928288)
Momentum!
   70. Dan Posted: September 17, 2011 at 09:23 PM (#3928289)
Having a lefty first baseman really pays off on plays like that. It always surprises me that there isn't more of a bias against righty throwing first basemen when it's a clear advantage to have a lefty.
   71. Dan Posted: September 17, 2011 at 09:27 PM (#3928290)
Great AB by Adrian, laying off the pitch he chased in his first AB.
   72. Gaelan Posted: September 17, 2011 at 09:29 PM (#3928294)
So every close call is going to the Red Sox. Surprise, surprise.
   73. Dan Posted: September 17, 2011 at 09:31 PM (#3928295)
So every close call is going to the Red Sox. Surprise, surprise.


Except not at all.
   74. Gaelan Posted: September 17, 2011 at 09:33 PM (#3928296)
There doesn't have to be an overt conspiracy for confirmation bias to operate. The Yankees have received every close call for years. Now the Red Sox are getting them. The deck is slanted against the Rays. I'm surprised they haven't lost their heads yet. Of course, I'm also surprised more owners don't go all Mark Cuban when this happens. What is the point of having a billion dollars if you can't pull your team off the field and create a national controversy that sheds light on systematic bias?
   75. Joel W Posted: September 17, 2011 at 09:34 PM (#3928299)
Everything about these owners tells me that if they thought they were getting continuously screwed, we'd have heard about it constantly for the past few years.
   76. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: September 17, 2011 at 09:35 PM (#3928300)
Small-market teams getting systematically screwed would show up definitively in the Pitch/fx data. If you want to convince people, there actually is an archive to go to if you want to show it.
   77. Joel W Posted: September 17, 2011 at 09:37 PM (#3928301)
Also, @74 before making ridiculous claims that require a high level of conspiracy, show that players who come to the Yankees and Red Sox systematically increase their walk rates, decrease their K rates, and decrease their caught stealing and thrown out at a base. I would wager that you could not, in fact, prove it.
   78. Gaelan Posted: September 17, 2011 at 09:38 PM (#3928302)

As for the calls - the ump made two bad calls on balls and strikes. There's no point pretending that he didn't, but there's also no need to blow them out of proportion.


That's what the billion dollars is for. To pay someone to do that. In the meantime I'll just turn the game off (or rather not DVR it, I was turning it off anyway).
   79. Gaelan Posted: September 17, 2011 at 09:41 PM (#3928306)
Also, @74 before making ridiculous claims that require a high level of conspiracy, show that players who come to the Yankees and Red Sox systematically increase their walk rates, decrease their K rates, and decrease their caught stealing and thrown out at a base. I would wager that you could not, in fact, prove it.


Right because the Yankees never benefit from random, surprisingly good seasons, from washed up veterans and never was career minor leaguers. The only thing more obvious than the Red Sox getting all the calls is the Yankees getting all the calls. It's not like this isn't already an acknowledged phenomenon. The NBA is built on it.
   80. Dale Sams Posted: September 17, 2011 at 09:42 PM (#3928307)
I'd wear a BOS sweater like that in a sec...where do I get one?
   81. Dale Sams Posted: September 17, 2011 at 09:43 PM (#3928308)
from washed up veterans and never was career minor leaguers


Obviously the umps are supplying steroids.
   82. Dan Posted: September 17, 2011 at 09:46 PM (#3928310)
Lester has come up really small in these last 2 starts.
   83. Benji Gil Gamesh Rises Posted: September 17, 2011 at 09:49 PM (#3928312)
This announcing crew talking about all the SABR stuff as if the Rays are the only team playing today paying attention to it is hilaripus.
   84. Darren Posted: September 17, 2011 at 09:50 PM (#3928313)
Another lousy start for Lester. IT doesn't help to have three well-placed hits this inning.
   85. Dale Sams Posted: September 17, 2011 at 09:51 PM (#3928314)
AAwww #### Gaelen just had a coronary.
   86. Benji Gil Gamesh Rises Posted: September 17, 2011 at 09:52 PM (#3928315)
If you read the ump's list he was telling Zobrist: "Sorry, that was on the Red Sox outside corner."
   87. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: September 17, 2011 at 09:52 PM (#3928316)
It is indeed not established that large market clubs get better umpiring. If it has been established, please link the systematic evidence of such.
   88. Darren Posted: September 17, 2011 at 09:53 PM (#3928317)
You've got to be kidding if you think the Sox are getting better calls. Just stop, really.
   89. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: September 17, 2011 at 09:53 PM (#3928318)
Beckett, my minor quibbling aside, was way better than this last night.

The Sox can hit Niemann, though.
   90. Dale Sams Posted: September 17, 2011 at 09:54 PM (#3928319)
lol...that pitchfx chart does scream bias...or Niemann simply isn't taking advantage.
   91. Dan Posted: September 17, 2011 at 09:55 PM (#3928320)
Niemann just took advantage to K Aviles.
   92. Darren Posted: September 17, 2011 at 09:55 PM (#3928321)
Woah, Niemann just got traded to the Red Sox.
   93. Dale Sams Posted: September 17, 2011 at 09:56 PM (#3928322)
Niemann just got traded to the Red Sox.


playoffs assured.
   94. Benji Gil Gamesh Rises Posted: September 17, 2011 at 09:57 PM (#3928323)
Any time I get the least bit tired of Remy & Orsillo I try to remember that I could be listening to tools like this instead.
   95. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: September 17, 2011 at 09:57 PM (#3928324)
Man, the Rays sure are getting screwed by this ump.
   96. Darren Posted: September 17, 2011 at 09:57 PM (#3928325)
The Sox can hit Niemann, though.


They apparently don't know this.

Aviles? We're talking about Aviles and what a great role he's playing on this team?

Hey, look, the Rays just added $100 million to their payroll!
   97. Darren Posted: September 17, 2011 at 09:58 PM (#3928326)
Why can't poor Niemann get a strike call?!!???!!!!!
   98. nick swisher hygiene Posted: September 17, 2011 at 09:59 PM (#3928327)
Currently confidence-inspiring starters employed by Yanks and Sox: I'll set an over/under of 0.5
   99. Darren Posted: September 17, 2011 at 10:00 PM (#3928328)
You're not confident in the Yankees starters? Tough crowd.
   100. Benji Gil Gamesh Rises Posted: September 17, 2011 at 10:02 PM (#3928330)
I don't know if you can tell in the replay, but the 2nd-base ump yelled "LOOKOUT!!" just as that ball got to the SS.
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