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Friday, July 29, 2011

RedSox (64-39) @ WhiteSox (51-52), Friday, July 29, 2011, 8:10pm

BOS: Tim Wakefield (44, RHP, 6-3, 5.15)
CHW: Gavin Floyd (28, RHP, 8-9, 4.11)

The Primer Chimp Posted: July 29, 2011 at 01:00 PM | 56 comment(s)
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   1. tfbg9 Posted: July 29, 2011 at 04:21 PM (#3888262)
Tim Wakefield (44, RHP, 6-3, 5.15)


We are going to lose...count on it, 1000%. Bet every last cent you have on Chicago, if you know what's good for you.
   2. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: July 29, 2011 at 07:56 PM (#3888500)
6-3, 5.15

That cracks me up. 6-3 with an 80 ERA+.
   3. Curse of the Graffanino (dfan) Posted: July 29, 2011 at 08:47 PM (#3888544)
The Red Sox have won Wakefield's last four starts (during which he has a 6.94 ERA).

Going for career win #200 tonight!
   4. Dan Posted: July 29, 2011 at 11:50 PM (#3888666)
Gonzalez scratched with a sore neck. Youkilis moves to first, Ortiz moves to 3rd in the order, and Sutton is playing 3rd base and batting 8th.
   5. Dan Posted: July 29, 2011 at 11:53 PM (#3888669)
So what do people think of a potential Chiang for Bedard deal? Too little? Too much? Don't want Bedard at all?
   6. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: July 30, 2011 at 12:22 AM (#3888685)
The Red Sox are 10 up in the loss column for the wild card, and two up for the division. They have about 60 games left, or 12 more times around the rotation.

12 of them will be Beckett
12 will be Lester
12 will be Lackey
7 will be Buchholz

That means about 17 games have to get started by somebody other than those four. Wakefield and Miller would, right now, get most of those starts. Probably 11 of them would be taken by Bedard.

If Bedard starts those 11 games, let's say they go 8-3.
If Wakefield/Miller start those games, what's the worst they'll go... 4 -7?

That'd be a four-game difference in the standings, and probably take 20-25 innings off the bullpen's workload.

That could be the difference in the division - but it wouldn't be the difference in the wildcard. And in the postseason, if he pitched well, he might replace Lackey for a Game 4 starter. Or he might be a lefty out of the bullpen...

...is that worth Chiang?
   7. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: July 30, 2011 at 12:23 AM (#3888687)
Omar Vizquel is batting second? Hilarious.
   8. Dan Posted: July 30, 2011 at 12:25 AM (#3888689)
I think the upgrade in the playoff rotation from Lackey to Bedard is worth Chiang.
   9. Darren Posted: July 30, 2011 at 12:43 AM (#3888703)
The Red Sox are a .620 team right now, but I don't think that will continue with this pitching, mainly because their offense is not this good. I'd say they're more likely to be around .550 the rest of the way. So that puts them at something like 32-27 the rest of the way, putting them at 96 wins. That's pretty decent shape, but there's a chance the Angels, Rays, or someone could make a run at that.

Now, how much of an upgrade is Bedard? I'd say he's going to take the place of a replacement level starter, so he's probably worth around 1.5 wins to the Sox. That could make a considerable difference to them. If he's arb eligible, I'd think they'd pay a pretty penny for him.
   10. Darren Posted: July 30, 2011 at 12:44 AM (#3888705)
With that said, I get attached to the big performing prospects. I'd rather give up someone who sucks.
   11. Joel W Posted: July 30, 2011 at 12:50 AM (#3888708)
Darren I'd be happy to bet you they are a better than .550 team between now and when they clinch a playoff spot.
   12. Darren Posted: July 30, 2011 at 12:54 AM (#3888710)
You know, the Red Sox could really make a strong case that players are not every trying to avoid Wake's knuckler. Getting the call even once or twice, could discourage other teams.
   13. Joel W Posted: July 30, 2011 at 12:54 AM (#3888711)
The pitching in July: 7.13/2.70/.87 K/bb/hr. 7th in MLB in WAR. The bullpen and Beckett throw a lot of innings no matter who starts the other games.
   14. Joel W Posted: July 30, 2011 at 01:00 AM (#3888717)
Obviously Beckett and Lester are no 1999 Pedro Martinez, but that team was 2nd in MLB in WAR with a starting rotation of Pedro, Saberhagen (100 innings), Pat Rapp, Mark Portugal, and Tim Wakefield (also Brian Rose). Two top line starters, plus a top line bullpen (3rd in MLB in WAR), and 3 crappy starters is still a pretty good pitching staff even if it feels crappy 3 games out of 5.
   15. CWS Keith plans to boo your show at the Apollo Posted: July 30, 2011 at 01:04 AM (#3888719)
The combined age of the Wakefield-Vizquel matchup is 88 years (closer to 89, as Wakefield's birthday is in August). I'd be curious to know how many times there's been a match-up greater in years. Any way to pull that up on bbref?
   16. Dan Posted: July 30, 2011 at 01:04 AM (#3888720)
That's a double with Drew in RF.
   17. Darren Posted: July 30, 2011 at 01:06 AM (#3888721)
No bet, but I'll refer you to 2006 if you want to see how a team that looks invincible but is coasting on fumes pitching-wise.
   18. Darren Posted: July 30, 2011 at 01:09 AM (#3888724)
What is the 7.13 number, Joel?
   19. Joel W Posted: July 30, 2011 at 01:09 AM (#3888725)
@15 http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/KC1/KC1196509250.shtml
   20. Darren Posted: July 30, 2011 at 01:10 AM (#3888726)
I don't want to give the impression that I think the Sox are in trouble. Even with 96 wins, they'd be in great shape. I just don't think the 99% figure from BP is accurate and I can see the Sox being willing to give up real prospects for someone like Bedard.
   21. Joel W Posted: July 30, 2011 at 01:10 AM (#3888727)
Darren those are Ks/9 bbs/9 and HRs/9 for the staff in July.
   22. Joel W Posted: July 30, 2011 at 01:12 AM (#3888730)
I mean, I'd be happy to give up prospects for Bedard. Our prospects aren't that good, and I assume I have some endowment effect issues. Offering arbitration to Bedard, I assume they'd get something decent if farther away.
   23. Darren Posted: July 30, 2011 at 01:17 AM (#3888731)
Did Franco face Moyer in 2007? Maybe Alou/Moyer in 08?
   24. CWS Keith plans to boo your show at the Apollo Posted: July 30, 2011 at 01:18 AM (#3888733)
Thanks Joel. I imagine that combined age of 91 (Paige v Bressoud) tops the list, yeah?
   25. Joel W Posted: July 30, 2011 at 01:19 AM (#3888734)
We went over it a bit in the other threads, but the 2006 team was just not nearly as good as this team, the rest of the league was better, the bad pitchers were worse, and the pen stunk.
   26. Dan Posted: July 30, 2011 at 01:21 AM (#3888737)
Pence to Phillies for Cosart, Singleton, and 2 PTBNL is a done deal. Amaro is good at acquiring pitching, but apparently not so good at evaluating talent in hitters, with this deal after giving IbaƱez that big contract and the massive, premature Howard extension.
   27. Darren Posted: July 30, 2011 at 01:22 AM (#3888738)
What is an endowment effect?
   28. Dan Posted: July 30, 2011 at 01:23 AM (#3888739)
Holy #### this umpire is a joke.
   29. Darren Posted: July 30, 2011 at 01:30 AM (#3888741)
We went over it a bit in the other threads, but the 2006 team was just not nearly as good as this team, the rest of the league was better, the bad pitchers were worse, and the pen stunk.


But other than that, it was exactly the same deal.

For Amaro, nothing compares to the Howard deal.
   30. Joel W Posted: July 30, 2011 at 01:31 AM (#3888742)
@Darren,

That we overvalue the things that are ours simply because they are ours.
   31. Dan Posted: July 30, 2011 at 01:33 AM (#3888744)
SI_JonHeyman Jon Heyman
#astros sold high on pence. yet still didnt get very much.


LOL WHAT?
   32. Dan Posted: July 30, 2011 at 01:36 AM (#3888746)
   33. Darren Posted: July 30, 2011 at 01:37 AM (#3888747)
Better than Ellsbury.
   34. Dan Posted: July 30, 2011 at 01:44 AM (#3888752)
NESN missed the first pitch to Reddick.
   35. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: July 30, 2011 at 01:44 AM (#3888753)
astros sold high on pence. yet still didnt get very much.


I think this means they sold him at the top of his value but still got nothing for him.
   36. Dan Posted: July 30, 2011 at 01:46 AM (#3888755)
I know what it's supposed to mean, but I cannot believe that Heyman seriously thinks Cosart and Singleton for Pence is "nothing". That's dumb even for him.
   37. Darren Posted: July 30, 2011 at 01:49 AM (#3888758)
Pence is a good player, though. He's a very nice addition for them. I don't know anything about those prospects, though.
   38. Dan Posted: July 30, 2011 at 01:49 AM (#3888760)
Pence is nothing special and is already making ~6M with 2 more arbitration raises to come.
   39. Darren Posted: July 30, 2011 at 01:50 AM (#3888761)
This is a great game by Wake. It'd be a fitting #200.
   40. Dan Posted: July 30, 2011 at 01:51 AM (#3888762)
Wakefield needs to be on a short leash here. He's been good, but don't try and get too much more out of him. Already at 85 pitches.
   41. Joel W Posted: July 30, 2011 at 01:52 AM (#3888766)
GET HIM OUT.
   42. Darren Posted: July 30, 2011 at 01:53 AM (#3888767)
You're all welcome.
   43. Joel W Posted: July 30, 2011 at 01:53 AM (#3888768)
For the record I said that before the home run. Jesus.
   44. Dan Posted: July 30, 2011 at 01:54 AM (#3888770)
Gee, who could've seen that coming?
   45. Dan Posted: July 30, 2011 at 01:56 AM (#3888772)
Wakefield needs to be on a 75-80 pitch limit. He falls apart at 80-90 pitches every single ####### game, and yet Francona hasn't picked up on it.
   46. plink Posted: July 30, 2011 at 02:03 AM (#3888777)
It took about 1 inning of the Chicago announcers before I gave up and switched to WEEI. Whatever complaints you may have about Remy & Orsillo, they're not even in the same league.
   47. Dan Posted: July 30, 2011 at 02:04 AM (#3888778)
Should be interesting to see how Bedard looks against the Rays tonight. Game's about to start in Seattle.
   48. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: July 30, 2011 at 02:05 AM (#3888779)
Too bad - he gave them 6 very good innings, and that's more than most teams could ask for from their #5 starter...
   49. Dan Posted: July 30, 2011 at 02:09 AM (#3888782)
I don't blame Wakefield at all. He's been falling apart after 75 pitches all year. Francona needs to manage with that in mind, especially with a decently rested bullpen.
   50. Darren Posted: July 30, 2011 at 02:10 AM (#3888783)
Pence is nothing special and is already making ~6M with 2 more arbitration raises to come.


He's a bargain this year and probably next.

This is it for Pedroia--will the streak continue?
   51. karlmagnus Posted: July 30, 2011 at 02:11 AM (#3888784)
Hope the wait for 200 doesn't go on too long; this one was on the offense. Still Chicago aren't exactly Wake's favorite opponent.
   52. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: July 30, 2011 at 02:20 AM (#3888788)
And the Red Sox lose to the White Sox yet again.
   53. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: July 30, 2011 at 02:24 AM (#3888791)
Well, the problem wasn't Wakefield.

Personally, I am bullish on Wheeler's ability to contribute good bullpen innings for this team, and it seems to me that he should've been out there to start the 7th inning, when it was 1 to 1. Let him give you two good innings.

One last thing - the key AB of the game for the Red Sox, probably, was the based-loaded strikeout of Youkilis on an outside pitch. Not saying he would've then crushed a grand slam or anything, but that was their shot tonight to put a crooked number on the board...
   54. Dan Posted: July 30, 2011 at 02:28 AM (#3888796)
At least AJ Burnett is getting hammered by the Orioles tonight.

Bedard looks decent so far. He broke off a few nasty curves in the first, and hit 93 or so on his 4-seamer.
   55. Dan Posted: July 30, 2011 at 02:41 AM (#3888804)
No one else staying up with me to watch Bedard pitch?? Phil??
   56. Dan Posted: July 30, 2011 at 02:53 AM (#3888812)
Bedard's control was completely awful. He didn't even make it out of the second inning. So yeah, how about that Ubaldo Jimenez?
   57. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: July 30, 2011 at 03:02 AM (#3888819)
What's with Latin pitchers throwing at Billy Butler after home runs, anyway? First Aceves and now Carrasco throws one at his head.

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