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Wednesday, April 25, 2012

Cardinals (11-7) @ Cubs (6-12), Wednesday, April 25, 2012, 2:20pm

STL:Lance Lynn (25, RHP, 3-0, 1.42)
CHC:Chris Volstad (25, RHP, 0-2, 6.19)

The Primer Chimp Posted: April 25, 2012 at 10:00 AM | 39 comment(s)
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   1. Brian C Posted: April 25, 2012 at 11:23 AM (#4115690)
Cubs season HR pace: 54
Bryan LaHair PA/game: 2.7
Soto/Clevenger TB: 13/14

I'm giving the Soriano tracker the day off after his big game last night. He earned it!

In other news, the Cubs have caught the Astros and are now in a tie for fifth place in the Central. Although the Astros bizarrely have a positive run differential and a 10-8 Pythag record, so there's no reason for the Cubs to get complacent about it.
   2. SouthSideRyan Posted: April 25, 2012 at 11:42 AM (#4115706)
Projected W-L: 54-108
Projected Pythag: 63-99
Castro SB/E: 7/7
SRS: 9th in NL!
   3. Brian C Posted: April 25, 2012 at 12:32 PM (#4115743)
SRS: 9th in NL!

It's worth repeating: this isn't a very good team, but their schedule has been really tough so far this year (B-Ref has theit SOS ranked #2 in the NL). They're probably not as bad as they've looked - I'd say that 9th sounds just about right to me, subjectively.
   4. SteveM. Posted: April 25, 2012 at 03:10 PM (#4115898)
And Clevinger isn't the starter why?
   5. Brian C Posted: April 25, 2012 at 03:15 PM (#4115906)
With that double, LaHair and Clevenger have 12 of the Cubs' 39 extra-base hits (30.8%), despite being 7th and t-13th on the team, respectively, in plate appearances.
   6. SouthSideRyan Posted: April 25, 2012 at 03:16 PM (#4115908)
Because the Cubs are basing their decisions on more than 3 weeks of play?
   7. SteveM. Posted: April 25, 2012 at 03:17 PM (#4115909)
Ryan. Soto looks done. I don't think that bad speed is ever coming back.
   8. SouthSideRyan Posted: April 25, 2012 at 03:18 PM (#4115910)
Anecdotally speaking Soto is the 2nd only to Soriano when it comes to streakiness on this team. Even in his all-star level years, he'd go weeks looking completely lost.
   9. SouthSideRyan Posted: April 25, 2012 at 03:21 PM (#4115913)
Soto is strike out rate is better this year than his career rate.
   10. Brian C Posted: April 25, 2012 at 03:33 PM (#4115930)
Soto is strike out rate is better this year than his career rate.

Um ...

K/PA, career: .223
K/PA, 2012: .222

His walk rate is way down, though, continuing the trend we saw last year. I'm not saying I'd bench him altogether - it's not like Clevenger's going to keep hitting .500 - but I'd definitely be looking to get Clevenger in there more, especially since he's a lefty hitter.

And I wouldn't be surprised if Soto's time actually has passed.
   11. SouthSideRyan Posted: April 25, 2012 at 03:43 PM (#4115941)
I was using K/AB.
   12. Brian C Posted: April 25, 2012 at 03:45 PM (#4115946)
I figured. But all that tells you is that he's striking out the same amount while walking less.
   13. SteveM. Posted: April 25, 2012 at 03:48 PM (#4115951)
LaHair is the Cubs power game.
   14. Brian C Posted: April 25, 2012 at 03:48 PM (#4115952)
Bryan LaHair is awesome.
   15. SteveM. Posted: April 25, 2012 at 03:49 PM (#4115954)
I am starting to wonder that if Rizzo is ready by midseason, could LaHair be any worse out in Left Field then Soriano is?
   16. Brian C Posted: April 25, 2012 at 03:51 PM (#4115956)
Time to jump off the Clevenger bandwagon now, though!
   17. Recalcitrant Nate Posted: April 25, 2012 at 03:51 PM (#4115957)
So, LaHair. I'll take it. I can't imagine why they wouldn't at least stick him out in LF to see what he can do. Unless someone dramatically overpays for him in trade.
   18. SouthSideRyan Posted: April 25, 2012 at 03:52 PM (#4115959)
[12] I don't know if I fully agree with that.
   19. SouthSideRyan Posted: April 25, 2012 at 03:56 PM (#4115963)
I mean obviously, it means he's striking out as often in terms of coming to the plate, but I don't know if the drop in walk rate should be ignored when discussing his K rate. (And I'm way off on a tangent, considering I brought up the K rate to show his bat speed hadn't necessarily slowed down)
   20. Brian C Posted: April 25, 2012 at 03:58 PM (#4115966)
I am starting to wonder that if Rizzo is ready by midseason, could LaHair be any worse out in Left Field then Soriano is?

I'm thinking probably yes, but I'd be happy to try it anyway.
   21. Brian C Posted: April 25, 2012 at 04:03 PM (#4115975)
I mean obviously, it means he's striking out as often in terms of coming to the plate, but I don't know if the drop in walk rate should be ignored when discussing his K rate.

Off tangent or not, I confess that I don't know what you mean here.

And at any rate, I'm not sure why his K rate would be the best measure for bat speed loss. Sosa's K/AB ratio didn't drop (with the exception of his 2005 season in Baltimore), and by the time he left the Cubs he could barely lift the bat off his shoulder.
   22. Brian C Posted: April 25, 2012 at 04:19 PM (#4115994)
Crap, Volstad had a pretty decent game going until this inning.
   23. SteveM. Posted: April 25, 2012 at 04:19 PM (#4115995)
Friese crushed that ball. Volstead just doesn't seem that good.
   24. SouthSideRyan Posted: April 25, 2012 at 04:21 PM (#4116000)
Volstad has been torched by big innings. This is 13 of his 16 runs given up over a period of 4 innings.
   25. SouthSideRyan Posted: April 25, 2012 at 04:23 PM (#4116005)
Wouldn't K rate in conjunction with LD% be a pretty good shorthand for a slowed down bat?
   26. SteveM. Posted: April 25, 2012 at 04:30 PM (#4116012)
Is Pit Bull a person? Or is Bud Light urging the mixing of alcohol with a dangerous dog breed?
   27. Brian C Posted: April 25, 2012 at 04:33 PM (#4116016)
Wouldn't K rate in conjunction with LD% be a pretty good shorthand for a slowed down bat?

Would it? I'm not being a wiseass, I really don't know. But it's not obvious to me why that would be the case.

And I really don't understand why K/AB - as opposed to K/PA - would be usefull at all.
   28. Brian C Posted: April 25, 2012 at 04:35 PM (#4116017)
Is Pit Bull a person? Or is Bud Light urging the mixing of alcohol with a dangerous dog breed?

Can it be both?

What I don't understand is what Pitbull really drinks when he parties. A few months ago, we were getting him in Dr. Pepper commercials. Now it's Bud Light. Can't believe anyone anymore.
   29. SouthSideRyan Posted: April 25, 2012 at 04:35 PM (#4116018)
K/PA seems to be double counting a drop in walk rate.
   30. SouthSideRyan Posted: April 25, 2012 at 04:36 PM (#4116021)
Scott Maine really sucks by the way, and I don't understand why he's still on the 40 man.
   31. SouthSideRyan Posted: April 25, 2012 at 04:38 PM (#4116022)
My thought is if your bat speed has slowed down you're going to be late on pitches resulting in Ks, and you won't be able to square up a pitch resulting in a drop in LD%. You can cheat a bit and become more of a guess hitter, but that'd have to increase the K rate at least.
   32. SteveM. Posted: April 25, 2012 at 04:42 PM (#4116030)
Can it be both?

What I don't understand is what Pitbull really drinks when he parties. A few months ago, we were getting him in Dr. Pepper commercials. Now it's Bud Light. Can't believe anyone anymore


I kinda miss when I got pop culture references. But then again, I am also glad my musical taste doesn't include someone named PitBull. (He really spells it as one word?)
   33. Brian C Posted: April 25, 2012 at 04:42 PM (#4116032)
K/PA seems to be double counting a drop in walk rate.

Huh?
   34. Brian C Posted: April 25, 2012 at 04:44 PM (#4116036)
(He really spells it as one word?)

All you need to know.
Speaking of pop culture references, seeing Jason Alexander in the booth reminds me that "Seinfeld" has aged terribly.
   35. SteveM. Posted: April 25, 2012 at 04:46 PM (#4116038)
Well that was a short read.
   36. SteveM. Posted: April 25, 2012 at 04:55 PM (#4116047)
I don't think Camp will make it to the All Star break on the Cubs roster.
   37. Brian C Posted: April 25, 2012 at 04:58 PM (#4116050)
He's actually been decent, though. Even after that inning, he's only allowed 13 hits (1 HR) in 12 innings, with only 2 walks.
   38. Brian C Posted: April 25, 2012 at 04:59 PM (#4116051)
He's even stranded 5 of 6 inherited runners.
   39. Brian C Posted: April 25, 2012 at 05:15 PM (#4116071)
Oh well. 2 of 3 from the Cards is still good fun.

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