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As predicted, the Red Sox went 2-1 vs. Baltimore and 0-1 vs. Chicago. That means the Sox are once again exactly in line with the 6/14 prediction, and are on pace for 94 wins.
That prediction had the Sox taking 2 of 3 in this series against the City of Angels Angels of Anaheim. I'm sticking with it.
I would guess that Lackey probably beats the BoSox tonight against the enigmatic mystery and wonder of Wakefield's knuckler.
Santana v. Arroyo is a tossup match really.
On paper, the Sox should beat the Paul Byrd and the Angels on Thursday behind Matt Clement.
The onus is on the Yankees to win in the Bronx to keep the pressure on Boston in these games - they'll be quite a bit of scoreboard watching going on in both ballparks.
I dunno. I gotta give the edge to LAA on that pitching matchup. Arroyo's been getting shelled lately and Santana dominated the Red Sox last time out.
Of course, the Red Sox offense could easily just score 10 runs in either game where they're not the "favorite", so who knows.
All three games are tossup matches, really.
The Angels have the pitching advantage in all three (either because the starter is better or because the starters are even and their bullpen is better).
The Red Sox have the hitting advantage in all three.
If you looked at pitching matchups, you'd conclude the Red Sox aren't favorites more often than not. The fact that only two teams are within a run per game of Boston's offense is why the Red Sox are actually favorites more often than not.
The most likely outcome in this series is that the Red Sox take 2 of 3. The teams are pretty evenly matched in talent, but Boston's the best home team in baseball.
If it were a four-game series, a split would probably be the most likely outcome, but in a three-game set, you've got to expect that the good home team will win the extra game. Might not happen, but it's the smart thing to expect.
I think Ben has it right in #4. In fact, my earlier predictions are based on exactly what his last paragraph states.
Red Sox Strategy: Ditto.
First, BPro also has the Sox finishing with roughly 94 wins.
Second, based on the way it plays out, my old predictions have Boston entering the final series of the year with 92 wins. Doing a similar exercise for the Yankees, I have them entering that series with... 92 wins. Fenway becomes the home of a three-game steel cage match on 9/30.
Put FOX Sports on High Alert! They now have three weeks to come up with a new promotional angle.
I don't know how many Jeter fist pumps I could live through.
Ah, so you have a sophisticated lighting system.
The degree of the craziness would depend on how many wins Cleveland and Oakland/Anaheim have going into the weekend.
If either the Red Sox or Yankees can lose the series and still make the playoffs, it'll be an intense atmosphere, but not anything close to the ALCS meetings.
In fact, in that scenario, I might prefer (although I certainly wouldn't root for it) if Boston lost so they could face the White Sox in the first round instead of the AL West winner.
Yeah, Ben beat me to that statement.
I'm looking forward to seeing Bellhorn's first game back at Fenway. He better get cheered, at least before his first at bat.
His first at-bat might be a pinch hit homer... would you still cheer?
I did say "before" the at-bat, McNally.
Slim and none. And slim just packed his #### and left town.
Slim and none. And slim just packed his #### and left town.
Yeah, the 17-1 blowout has already happened twice this season, so what're the odds of it happening again?
I have Oakland out of it by then, and Cleveland ending the season with 93 wins (lots of KC, Tampa, and Detroit in their schedule). With that, a series sweep by either team would knock the other out of the playoffs.
What's the wild card tiebreak now? Do they start with head-to-head? Both Boston and NY won their season series against Cleveland.
Yes, they play a one-game playoff, mainly because going with head-to-head records would make too much sense.
It would be pretty unfair if 6 or 7 of the 10 head-to-head meetings were in one team's home park.
Of course, the coin toss decides homefield advantage for the one-game playoff...
That's what I'd thought, but I also recall they'd revamped the tiebreak a number of years ago, and I can't for the life of me remember what they did. You're probably right, though.
The change they made this year is that if the Yankees, Red Sox, and A's are all tied at the end of the season, NYY would play BOS for the division and then the loser would play OAK for the Wild Card. Previously, OAK would get the Wild Card and the NYY/BOS loser would go home. The new system is much better.
I think they changed the rules for what happens if more than two teams are tied for the wild card or a division title. In fact, maybe they added the rules in the first place - as I recall, there was a bunch of confusion surrounding the 2003 NL Wild Card - there were something like four teams with a shot at it with a week or so left, IIRC.
I have tickets for 10/1 and 10/2, and I'd like those games to mean something. But I'm hoping what they mean is that the Sox have won the division and could knock NY out of the wild card.
I also have tickets for 9/26, and would love to see the Sox clinch the playoffs that day.
That's really too bad for CHOOONNNE.
Go Olderdude!
But there's a huge emotional payoff in rooting against bandwagonesque Yankee fans.
Go Olderdude!
Yeah, but what about blonderdude?
:)
John Lackey has the worst defensive support in the world.
The Angels would kick arse in 1968, what with all the pitching and stealing and just having one good hitter in the lineup every day and everything.
Rush > Fly
I'm devastated.
:)
As well you should be.
Wakefield is making the Angels look like little leaguers.
Wakefield isThe pitchers of the American League are making the Angels look like little leaguers.Lackey has the stuff to put up as many K's as he has.
hey angels fans, kevin doesn’t believe lackey has the stuff to be putting up as many k’s this year as he has.
He does. What was frustrating the previous two seasons was knowing that he had the stuff to put up a bunch of Ks, but wouldn't trust his breaking stuff when he was behind in the count.
For god's sake. Does he EVER not give the runs right back if the Sox score and give him a lead. Okay, that's hyperbole. But he seems to have an amazing frequency of giving up runs in the innings after the Sox score.
I now feel much better about this game.
DB
Man, a good throw would have gotten Kennedy by plenty.
Agree, the throw sucked
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