BBTF's Game Chatter Discussion :: NY Mets 70-67 at Atlanta 79-59 7:35pm ET

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1. Joshemy Posted: September 06, 2005 at 02:29 PM (#1599767)

Pedro needs to pitch a masterpiece tonight, I feel.

2. Rob Base Posted: September 06, 2005 at 04:17 PM (#1599986)

I am very concerned that Pedro has nothing left (at least for the season). His fastball was like 78 last time out.

3. Sam M. Posted: September 06, 2005 at 05:32 PM (#1600131)

The last place Mets picked the worst time of the year to go 3-7, didn’t they?

Pretty much. It doesn't look good right now, that's for sure. Basically, the team is learning that you can only go so long with

* .300 OBPs at the top of the order;
* two positions where the players are massively worse than the norm for their position (first and second base); and
* a manager who puts in Takatsu to face Cabrera with the bases loaded in a critical game.

4. villainx Posted: September 06, 2005 at 05:55 PM (#1600170)

* a manager who puts in Takatsu to face Cabrera with the bases loaded in a critical game.

That's only one game.

And the only thing that the Mets can really change is your first point. I like that whatever lineup changes imagined has basically slimmed down to anyone but Cairo.

5. Sam M. Posted: September 06, 2005 at 06:12 PM (#1600204)

And the only thing that the Mets can really change is your first point.

Yup. It appears -- and this can turn around quickly, which of course I hope it does -- that the inherent flaws of the team have just caught up to them, and they may not be good enough.

They might have been: Mientkiewicz, Matsui, and Beltran might all have been a bit healthier and a bit better. Looper might have been as good as he was last year, instead of markedly worse. Cameron might have played more than 76 games.

They might have made better roster choices early on (e.g., Seo/Ishii) and late (Danny Graves???). If Trachsel had been healthy a month before he was, they would have been in a position to trade a starter in late July for the hitter they needed.
If Delgado wasn't a piss ant, and if he didn't have a piss ant agent with an agenda.

But as it's unfolded, they are just a bit short. Or at least, it's sure looking like they are. Any team that is 3 behind the WC leader on Sept. 6 still has a chance, but they look like it's slipping away.

6. 1k5v3L

Posted: September 06, 2005 at 06:22 PM (#1600226)

The Mets have the worst road record of the 5 teams in the NL east, at 29-40 (and that's despite the 4 game sweep in AZ :) Even the Nats are better on the road, at 33-39. The other three teams have losing road records as well, but they're only a couple of games under .500. That, to me, is a huge reason the Mets are in last place right now--in a way, they cannot beat their division rivals on the road. Not sure how they can correct it this month tho. HOU is even worse on the road, incidentally, at 27-40.

7. Honkie Kong Posted: September 06, 2005 at 06:30 PM (#1600241)

I am very concerned that Pedro has nothing left (at least for the season). His fastball was like 78 last time out.

small sample size??
Nah, this is going to be pedro's rebound game. 6 ip, 0 runs , 2 hits. I actually think the Mets should approach this as a 6 inning outing for Pedro, and tell him so. With roster expansion and a rested bullpen, there is no need to push him yet.

Is smoltz starting today for sure?

8. Minnie Minoso, Hall of Famer Posted: September 06, 2005 at 06:30 PM (#1600242)

But at least Danny Graves is back! [/sarcasm]

9. villainx Posted: September 06, 2005 at 06:30 PM (#1600244)

Regarding the home/road record, I was going to say something about this earlier, but i can't really say why the Mets are playing so poorly on the road.

The team splits aren't that extreme, and I assume the discrepancy can partly be attributed to the deficiency already mentioned by Sam, but the road games are tough for the Mets.

10. PhillyBooster Posted: September 06, 2005 at 06:45 PM (#1600273)

Regarding the home/road record, I was going to say something about this earlier, but i can’t really say why the Mets are playing so poorly on the road.

I think you have to look at the big picture here. 11 out of 16 NL teams (including the Reds and Rockies!) are over .500 at home. Who is at or over .500 on the road?

The Cardinals.

That's it. They are 46-25. Next best is the Braves at 33-35.

The AL is only a little better. The ChiSox, Angels, A's, and Indians are over .500 on the road, and the Twins are at .500.

Still, that's only 5 out of 30 teams who "win" on the road.

Is "road record" just a remnant of teams better learning how to win at home? If you build your team around your home park, that might be the win-maximizing strategy since you play half your games at home. But it's sort of a prisoner's dilemma, in that every other team is doing the same thing, so the more you improve at home, the worse you get on the road.

11. 1k5v3L

Posted: September 06, 2005 at 06:50 PM (#1600281)

the thing is, historially home teams have always enjoyed an advantage; i think the home field advantage is around .540 winning percentage. and i am not convinced that's a result of teams "adjusting to their ballpark"--at least not in the sense of front office people trying to squeeze the last one bit of advantage of their park as they construct their teams. so that means that, if all teams are going to enjoy a winning record at home (except for the 2005 dbacks), you HAVE to win more games on the road than your division rivals. and the mets aren't going it. which explains why they're last in the east.

12. Rob Base Posted: September 06, 2005 at 06:51 PM (#1600282)

Is “road record” just a remnant of teams better learning how to win at home? If you build your team around your home park, that might be the win-maximizing strategy since you play half your games at home. But it’s sort of a prisoner’s dilemma, in that every other team is doing the same thing, so the more you improve at home, the worse you get on the road.

The Mets don't do that. They just hire the guys who are the Spanish-est.

13. 1k5v3L

Posted: September 06, 2005 at 06:52 PM (#1600284)

to put it differently, if you can't win on the road, or at least post .500 record there, you are most likely not going to smell the playoffs.

14. villainx Posted: September 06, 2005 at 06:54 PM (#1600292)

Who is at or over .500 on the road?

I was thinking more that the Mets could be under .500 and still have a decent road record.

I'm wondering why they are struggling so badly, as oppose to normal badly.

15. 1k5v3L

Posted: September 06, 2005 at 07:16 PM (#1600322)

Mets records vs. selected teams

vs. PHI, 9-6
vs. FLA, 8-7
vs. WAS, 8-5
vs. ATL, 4-10
vs. AL, 5-10

Interleague records of NL east teams

ATL, 7-8
PHI, 7-8
FLA, 10-5
WAS, 12-6
NYM, 5-10

In a nutshell, the Mets are last in the east because;

a) they cannot beat the Braves
b) they cannot beat the Yankees

16. 1k5v3L

Posted: September 06, 2005 at 07:17 PM (#1600324)

the 2005 standinds grid

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/standings/grid

17. PhillyBooster Posted: September 06, 2005 at 07:18 PM (#1600328)

Well, I checked levski's numbers, and sure enough the majors as a whole have a .542 home record this year, and a .458 road record. But contra his assertion that if you can’t win on the road, or at least post .500 record there, you are most likely not going to smell the playoffs, the teams in the thick of it are precisely the ones who are standard deviations AWAY from the standard .080 split, and aren't winning on the road.

Teams with a home/road differtial of at least .160 (double the .080) include Boston (.193), Atlanta (.172), and the Yankees (.162), all of whom have losing road records, and all of whom have a serious shot at the playoffs.

The biggest differential is Houston (.254), this today's wild card leader, meanwhile the two best records in the majors (Cardinals and White Sox)and AL Wild Card contender Cleveland have negative splits and play better on the road!

So, of the teams with the 10 best records in baseball, five have losing records on the road, and 3 have a better record on the road than at home.

The .540 HFA conceals more than it reveals, it looks like, because while it seems to hold overall, very few teams are actually anywhere near it.

18. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: September 06, 2005 at 07:22 PM (#1600332)

b) they cannot beat the Yankees

Well, they split the season series with the Yankees and really should've won it, so it's not that. Interleague what killed them was a West Coast swing:

vs. LAA: 1-2
vs. OAK: 1-2
vs. SEA: 0-3 (Ouch)
Total: 2-7

19. 1k5v3L

Posted: September 06, 2005 at 07:28 PM (#1600346)

Booster, I should've qualified my statement. I didn't mean that a team had to have a winning road record ( > .500 percentage); I meant that you have to be able to win enough games on the road to push your road percentage to around .500, to hope for a decent overall record if you're to assume that your home record will be around .540 on the year.

That means that if you do have a ridiculously high home winning percentage (especially compared to teams in your division), you can get away with having a bad road percentage. In the NL east though, all teams are playing well at home. So the teams that do better on the road are better off (duh).

Re: STL, CHA, CLE... those teams still have a good home record, don't they? (OK, CLE's home record is pretty crappy compared to its road record. I do wonder if that has to do with their poor record in one run games? Comletely tangential.) CLE's road record suggests they might be a really tough team in the playoffs if they sneak in as the wild card.

20. 1k5v3L

Posted: September 06, 2005 at 07:31 PM (#1600350)

Thanks, RB. I was too lazy to look up the results of the Mets interleague games. I knew they played 6 vs. the Yankees, so I just assumed they lost something like 4 or 5 to them. Now I see I was mistaken. 0-3 vs SEA, eh? That has to hurt...

21. Joshemy Posted: September 06, 2005 at 07:43 PM (#1600380)

God, I forgot we had lost all three in Seattle.

All I remember from that series was David Wright's dive into the stands catch...

22. Old Matt Posted: September 06, 2005 at 07:47 PM (#1600391)

I still believe.

Make me believe Pedro.

23. Rob Base Posted: September 06, 2005 at 08:03 PM (#1600423)

I'd like to see him throwing consistently in the low 90's by the 3rd inning.

24. PhillyBooster Posted: September 06, 2005 at 08:14 PM (#1600448)

I meant that you have to be able to win enough games on the road to push your road percentage to around .500, to hope for a decent overall record if you’re to assume that your home record will be around .540 on the year.

Based only on this years stats, the distribution does not appear to be a bell curve. I wish someone with more knowledge of statistics than I have could run a correlation to see the relationship between home win% and road win%. It doesn't seem to be as strong as I would expect.

While the "average" spread is .080, only 10 teams fall between .040 and .120. Compared to fourteen who are either over .160 (seven) or negative (seven).

25. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: September 06, 2005 at 08:43 PM (#1600506)

Right now, it's hard to know what to expect from Pedro and I don't think it has to do with the number of innings he's thrown. I think he's nursing some minor injuries that bother him more some days and less on others. His last start Pedro had nothing on fastball. In the one before that, he had his best fastball in weeeks.

26. rb's team is hopeful for the new year! Posted: September 06, 2005 at 09:18 PM (#1600584)

I guess it's to late for pedro to start sucking enough for me to win my bet, even with hram's "resurgence."

I think this is the part of the year when cox needs to start resting smoltz for the playoffs, since we need to send him up there for every other game.

27. Robert in Manhattan Beach Posted: September 06, 2005 at 09:23 PM (#1600592)

I think this is the part of the year when cox needs to start resting smoltz for the playoffs, since we need to send him up there for every other game.

I agree. I wouldn't really mind Smoltz skipping this start due to his sore neck. Pedro pretty much owns the Braves (well, the part that isn't owned by Ben Sheets), so having Smoltzie grind through a lost cause doesn't sound too good to me.

28. rb's team is hopeful for the new year! Posted: September 06, 2005 at 09:27 PM (#1600603)

In the good news for mets fans dept., the braves bullpen has blown 19 saves this year.

29. Joshemy Posted: September 06, 2005 at 09:28 PM (#1600605)

Reyes
Matsui
Beltran
Floyd
Wright
Minky
Castro
Diaz

YAY! Matsui again! No Cairo!

Now, if we could switch Minky and Diaz and get Diaz out of the 8-hole.

30. 1k5v3L

Posted: September 06, 2005 at 09:52 PM (#1600667)

Oh, Larry = Chipper.

I thought Mahnken really got to you, Heit.

31. Joshemy Posted: September 06, 2005 at 10:05 PM (#1600694)

I thought Mahnken really got to you, Heit.

Nah, I like Manhken.

As for Chipper, well... ######.

32. I Love LA (OFF) Posted: September 06, 2005 at 10:15 PM (#1600725)

This really sucks. We had only one ####### meaningful September game.

33. villainx Posted: September 06, 2005 at 10:33 PM (#1600780)

Why is Diaz hitting 8th again?

34. rb's team is hopeful for the new year! Posted: September 06, 2005 at 10:47 PM (#1600813)

I'll refrain from posting the braves lineup, since we seem to suck when I do.

35. Robert in Manhattan Beach Posted: September 06, 2005 at 10:52 PM (#1600824)

That's a good move. I'll summarize. Franco over LaRoche, good. Johnson over Langerhans, bad.

They need to drop LaRoche down a well or something.

36. Old Matt Posted: September 06, 2005 at 11:06 PM (#1600855)

ZAMBRANO IS OUT OF THE ROTATION!

37. Joshemy Posted: September 06, 2005 at 11:14 PM (#1600877)

No way. Holy ####!

Where is this from, Matt?

38. rb's team is hopeful for the new year! Posted: September 06, 2005 at 11:15 PM (#1600883)

They need to drop ~~LaRoche~~ KolBB down a well or something.

39. Old Matt Posted: September 06, 2005 at 11:15 PM (#1600885)

Matt Laughlin on the pregame. Zambrano is out for the remainder of season, headed to the bullpen.

40. Joshemy Posted: September 06, 2005 at 11:18 PM (#1600891)

Well, it is nice to see the organization finally growing some balls, not worrying about perception and doing the best thing they could under the situation...

41. Old Matt Posted: September 06, 2005 at 11:26 PM (#1600914)

I hope NewKaz can find a way to stay in the lineup.

42. Zeba Zeba Eata Posted: September 06, 2005 at 11:27 PM (#1600918)

I hope NewKaz can find a way to stay NewKaz.

43. Robert in Manhattan Beach Posted: September 06, 2005 at 11:29 PM (#1600921)

They need to drop KolBB down a well or something.

Maybe I'm an optimist, but I think that after that episode on Sunday, we have seen the last of Kolb being used in non-blowouts. That means that as much as I dread Reitsma, he's in play. Boyer and Farns can't pitch all the meaningful innings.

44. Robert in Manhattan Beach Posted: September 06, 2005 at 11:32 PM (#1600933)

Incidently, how did we end up with Farnsworth? With all the high profile, big money teams out there with sucky bullpens, we sneak in and grab a guy that can throw 100 with an unhittable slider for Roman Nothing Colon. Unbelievable. Head case or not, he's twice as good as anyone we have and would look good in any number of contenders' bullpens.

45. rb's team is hopeful for the new year! Posted: September 06, 2005 at 11:40 PM (#1600967)

Head case or not, he’s twice as good as anyone we have

This says very little.

46. AJMcCringleberry Posted: September 06, 2005 at 11:41 PM (#1600972)

Kaz!

47. Zeba Zeba Eata Posted: September 06, 2005 at 11:41 PM (#1600973)

Who is this Kaz? Why did he wait until now to show up?

48. Joshemy Posted: September 06, 2005 at 11:41 PM (#1600974)

9 pitches! And a double!

NewKaz!

49. Old Matt Posted: September 06, 2005 at 11:41 PM (#1600975)

Kaz Matsui ####### rocks.

50. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: September 06, 2005 at 11:41 PM (#1600976)

Who is this guy?

51. I Love LA (OFF) Posted: September 06, 2005 at 11:43 PM (#1600981)

And Beltran fails to deliver. What a surprise.

52. Joshemy Posted: September 06, 2005 at 11:45 PM (#1600988)

Two on for David. Come on, early lead would be HUGE...

53. CrosbyBird Posted: September 06, 2005 at 11:45 PM (#1600989)

That Kaz hit was a triple if he didn't foul a pitch off his foot.

Nice reverse jinx with the Elias HBP stat by the broadcast team too.

54. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: September 06, 2005 at 11:45 PM (#1600990)

Healy jinxes Smoltz.

55. I Love LA (OFF) Posted: September 06, 2005 at 11:46 PM (#1600991)

Am I the only one who thinks we should start drafting Georgia kids?

56. CrosbyBird Posted: September 06, 2005 at 11:47 PM (#1600993)

Even though we didn't score, I'll take innings where we make Smoltz throw than many pitches.

57. Old Matt Posted: September 06, 2005 at 11:47 PM (#1600995)

Damn.

58. Joshemy Posted: September 06, 2005 at 11:47 PM (#1600996)

Ah damnit David...

59. I Love LA (OFF) Posted: September 06, 2005 at 11:48 PM (#1601000)

That's the biggest difference between us and the Braves. When we get guys in front of our best hitters, nothing ever happens. But when Furcal or Giles gets on, you know they are going to score.

60. rb's team is hopeful for the new year! Posted: September 06, 2005 at 11:48 PM (#1601002)

No dice!

61. AJMcCringleberry Posted: September 06, 2005 at 11:49 PM (#1601004)

Crap. At least Smoltz threw 27 pitches.

62. I Love LA (OFF) Posted: September 06, 2005 at 11:49 PM (#1601011)

I wish Pedro would throw at Larry.

63. AJMcCringleberry Posted: September 06, 2005 at 11:50 PM (#1601017)

Am I the only one who thought that was just a pop up to Floyd?

64. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: September 06, 2005 at 11:50 PM (#1601018)

Come on Pedro.

65. rb's team is hopeful for the new year! Posted: September 06, 2005 at 11:51 PM (#1601020)

Doooooble!!

66. Joshemy Posted: September 06, 2005 at 11:51 PM (#1601021)

Um, that's not a good start.

67. Rob Base Posted: September 06, 2005 at 11:51 PM (#1601022)

Yeah, this is going to be a helluva pedro start ...

68. I Love LA (OFF) Posted: September 06, 2005 at 11:52 PM (#1601024)

Two hitters, two bombs. Jeez.

69. Rob Base Posted: September 06, 2005 at 11:53 PM (#1601028)

The guy who keeps saying "c'mon kid" needs to shut the #### up.

70. Joshemy Posted: September 06, 2005 at 11:54 PM (#1601030)

And a walk to Larry.

I don't have picture... is Petey's stuff not there?

71. I Love LA (OFF) Posted: September 06, 2005 at 11:54 PM (#1601031)

Come on, blue. Where was that?

72. Rob Base Posted: September 06, 2005 at 11:56 PM (#1601034)

Thanks, Kaz!

73. rb's team is hopeful for the new year! Posted: September 06, 2005 at 11:57 PM (#1601035)

From the intern:

After watching Jeff Francoeur's rifle throw home yesterday, I wonder if there's anything he can't do. If Jeff broke his bat, jumped out of the stadium and ripped down an oak tree, returned and used the giant oak to belt a 900 foot homerun, and then rounded the bases before the ball even left the park, I probably wouldn't flinch.

Seconded.

We score!!

74. I Love LA (OFF) Posted: September 06, 2005 at 11:57 PM (#1601037)

####### MATSUI!!!!

UGHHHHH.

75. Rob Base Posted: September 06, 2005 at 11:57 PM (#1601039)

Free Chase Lambin!

76. Old Matt Posted: September 06, 2005 at 11:59 PM (#1601047)

Yeah, this is no good.

77. AJMcCringleberry Posted: September 06, 2005 at 11:59 PM (#1601048)

My good feeling about this game is fading.

78. CrosbyBird Posted: September 06, 2005 at 11:59 PM (#1601049)

What can you do when a guy swings at pitches out of the strike zone for singles?

79. Rob Base Posted: September 07, 2005 at 12:00 AM (#1601054)

What can you do when a guy swings at pitches out of the strike zone for singles?

Well, you used to be able to blow it by him. That last fastball was 89.

80. Old Matt Posted: September 07, 2005 at 12:00 AM (#1601055)

Hey, he threw two less pitches than Smoltz!

81. Rob Base Posted: September 07, 2005 at 12:01 AM (#1601061)

How many you think Martinerhagen has left tonight?

82. CrosbyBird Posted: September 07, 2005 at 12:02 AM (#1601063)

"I'm Congressman Anthony Weiner, and my own party would rather have the the other guy running for mayor instead of me. Why am I in this race again?"

83. I Love LA (OFF) Posted: September 07, 2005 at 12:02 AM (#1601065)

I really hate how we pay for every chance we take. If we play a guy whose defense sucks, he loses the game with his glove. If we play a guy who can't hit for ####, he makes key outs all night long. Seriously. At some ####### point our bad luck has to end, no?

84. Old Matt Posted: September 07, 2005 at 12:02 AM (#1601070)

Six innings Rob.

85. Rob Base Posted: September 07, 2005 at 12:03 AM (#1601071)

Doug has looked good.

86. I Love LA (OFF) Posted: September 07, 2005 at 12:04 AM (#1601077)

YOU GOT TO BE KIDDING ME!

87. AJMcCringleberry Posted: September 07, 2005 at 12:04 AM (#1601079)

Dougie!

88. I Love LA (OFF) Posted: September 07, 2005 at 12:06 AM (#1601086)

Okay, riddle me this batman. Why in the world is Castro pulling the ball? Hey arshole, you are not Mike Piazza, move the runner to third.

89. Old Matt Posted: September 07, 2005 at 12:07 AM (#1601090)

I love how the Mets can't score runners from second with less than two outs.

90. Joshemy Posted: September 07, 2005 at 12:07 AM (#1601092)

Come on Petey!!!

91. AJMcCringleberry Posted: September 07, 2005 at 12:08 AM (#1601099)

This ####### sucks.

92. I Love LA (OFF) Posted: September 07, 2005 at 12:09 AM (#1601102)

####### Castro. He gets a couple of meaningless RBIs, and he suddenly thinks he's a hot shot. If you can't have the decency to hit the ball to the right side, ####### bunt. Geez.

93. Rob Base Posted: September 07, 2005 at 12:09 AM (#1601107)

#### the South.

94. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: September 07, 2005 at 12:09 AM (#1601108)

Pedro can be very good with a 87-89 MPH fastball but right now he's at 83-85. That's not going to cut it.

95. Rob Base Posted: September 07, 2005 at 12:12 AM (#1601117)

Kelly is a girl's name.

96. Rob Base Posted: September 07, 2005 at 12:13 AM (#1601127)

The "c'mon kid" hillbilly is ruining the game for me.

97. Honkie Kong Posted: September 07, 2005 at 12:13 AM (#1601129)

Just got in at work. My friends have gone to this game but i can't cos i gotta work :(
is smolz throwing any breaking balls? his neck is supposed to be bothering him right?

98. Honkie Kong Posted: September 07, 2005 at 12:14 AM (#1601132)

The “c’mon kid” hillbilly is ruining the game for me.

thats bobby cox..

99. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: September 07, 2005 at 12:15 AM (#1601134)

Is it just me or is the ball carrying very well? I thought that flyball by McCann was going to drop for a hit.

100. Rob Base Posted: September 07, 2005 at 12:16 AM (#1601142)

The “c’mon kid” hillbilly is ruining the game for me.

thats bobby cox..

No... yeah?

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