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Pretty much. It doesn't look good right now, that's for sure. Basically, the team is learning that you can only go so long with
* .300 OBPs at the top of the order;
* two positions where the players are massively worse than the norm for their position (first and second base); and
* a manager who puts in Takatsu to face Cabrera with the bases loaded in a critical game.
That's only one game.
And the only thing that the Mets can really change is your first point. I like that whatever lineup changes imagined has basically slimmed down to anyone but Cairo.
Yup. It appears -- and this can turn around quickly, which of course I hope it does -- that the inherent flaws of the team have just caught up to them, and they may not be good enough.
They might have been: Mientkiewicz, Matsui, and Beltran might all have been a bit healthier and a bit better. Looper might have been as good as he was last year, instead of markedly worse. Cameron might have played more than 76 games.
They might have made better roster choices early on (e.g., Seo/Ishii) and late (Danny Graves???). If Trachsel had been healthy a month before he was, they would have been in a position to trade a starter in late July for the hitter they needed.
If Delgado wasn't a piss ant, and if he didn't have a piss ant agent with an agenda.
But as it's unfolded, they are just a bit short. Or at least, it's sure looking like they are. Any team that is 3 behind the WC leader on Sept. 6 still has a chance, but they look like it's slipping away.
small sample size??
Nah, this is going to be pedro's rebound game. 6 ip, 0 runs , 2 hits. I actually think the Mets should approach this as a 6 inning outing for Pedro, and tell him so. With roster expansion and a rested bullpen, there is no need to push him yet.
Is smoltz starting today for sure?
The team splits aren't that extreme, and I assume the discrepancy can partly be attributed to the deficiency already mentioned by Sam, but the road games are tough for the Mets.
I think you have to look at the big picture here. 11 out of 16 NL teams (including the Reds and Rockies!) are over .500 at home. Who is at or over .500 on the road?
The Cardinals.
That's it. They are 46-25. Next best is the Braves at 33-35.
The AL is only a little better. The ChiSox, Angels, A's, and Indians are over .500 on the road, and the Twins are at .500.
Still, that's only 5 out of 30 teams who "win" on the road.
Is "road record" just a remnant of teams better learning how to win at home? If you build your team around your home park, that might be the win-maximizing strategy since you play half your games at home. But it's sort of a prisoner's dilemma, in that every other team is doing the same thing, so the more you improve at home, the worse you get on the road.
The Mets don't do that. They just hire the guys who are the Spanish-est.
I was thinking more that the Mets could be under .500 and still have a decent road record.
I'm wondering why they are struggling so badly, as oppose to normal badly.
vs. PHI, 9-6
vs. FLA, 8-7
vs. WAS, 8-5
vs. ATL, 4-10
vs. AL, 5-10
Interleague records of NL east teams
ATL, 7-8
PHI, 7-8
FLA, 10-5
WAS, 12-6
NYM, 5-10
In a nutshell, the Mets are last in the east because;
a) they cannot beat the Braves
b) they cannot beat the Yankees
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/standings/grid
Teams with a home/road differtial of at least .160 (double the .080) include Boston (.193), Atlanta (.172), and the Yankees (.162), all of whom have losing road records, and all of whom have a serious shot at the playoffs.
The biggest differential is Houston (.254), this today's wild card leader, meanwhile the two best records in the majors (Cardinals and White Sox)and AL Wild Card contender Cleveland have negative splits and play better on the road!
So, of the teams with the 10 best records in baseball, five have losing records on the road, and 3 have a better record on the road than at home.
The .540 HFA conceals more than it reveals, it looks like, because while it seems to hold overall, very few teams are actually anywhere near it.
b) they cannot beat the Yankees
Well, they split the season series with the Yankees and really should've won it, so it's not that. Interleague what killed them was a West Coast swing:
vs. LAA: 1-2
vs. OAK: 1-2
vs. SEA: 0-3 (Ouch)
Total: 2-7
That means that if you do have a ridiculously high home winning percentage (especially compared to teams in your division), you can get away with having a bad road percentage. In the NL east though, all teams are playing well at home. So the teams that do better on the road are better off (duh).
Re: STL, CHA, CLE... those teams still have a good home record, don't they? (OK, CLE's home record is pretty crappy compared to its road record. I do wonder if that has to do with their poor record in one run games? Comletely tangential.) CLE's road record suggests they might be a really tough team in the playoffs if they sneak in as the wild card.
All I remember from that series was David Wright's dive into the stands catch...
Make me believe Pedro.
Based only on this years stats, the distribution does not appear to be a bell curve. I wish someone with more knowledge of statistics than I have could run a correlation to see the relationship between home win% and road win%. It doesn't seem to be as strong as I would expect.
While the "average" spread is .080, only 10 teams fall between .040 and .120. Compared to fourteen who are either over .160 (seven) or negative (seven).
I think this is the part of the year when cox needs to start resting smoltz for the playoffs, since we need to send him up there for every other game.
I agree. I wouldn't really mind Smoltz skipping this start due to his sore neck. Pedro pretty much owns the Braves (well, the part that isn't owned by Ben Sheets), so having Smoltzie grind through a lost cause doesn't sound too good to me.
Matsui
Beltran
Floyd
Wright
Minky
Castro
Diaz
YAY! Matsui again! No Cairo!
Now, if we could switch Minky and Diaz and get Diaz out of the 8-hole.
I thought Mahnken really got to you, Heit.
Nah, I like Manhken.
As for Chipper, well... ######.
They need to drop LaRoche down a well or something.
Where is this from, Matt?
LaRocheKolBB down a well or something.Maybe I'm an optimist, but I think that after that episode on Sunday, we have seen the last of Kolb being used in non-blowouts. That means that as much as I dread Reitsma, he's in play. Boyer and Farns can't pitch all the meaningful innings.
This says very little.
NewKaz!
Nice reverse jinx with the Elias HBP stat by the broadcast team too.
I don't have picture... is Petey's stuff not there?
After watching Jeff Francoeur's rifle throw home yesterday, I wonder if there's anything he can't do. If Jeff broke his bat, jumped out of the stadium and ripped down an oak tree, returned and used the giant oak to belt a 900 foot homerun, and then rounded the bases before the ball even left the park, I probably wouldn't flinch.
Seconded.
We score!!
UGHHHHH.
Well, you used to be able to blow it by him. That last fastball was 89.
is smolz throwing any breaking balls? his neck is supposed to be bothering him right?
thats bobby cox..
thats bobby cox..
No... yeah?
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