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   1. 1k5v3L Posted: September 08, 2005 at 08:58 PM (#1605654)
And please no Derek Jeter/Tom Brady comparisions.

I thought the baseball equivalent of Brady was Kevin Millar...
   2. Mikαεl Posted: September 08, 2005 at 09:25 PM (#1605715)
Football sucks.
   3. Urban Faber Posted: September 08, 2005 at 09:26 PM (#1605718)
Brady went to Michigan, and Jeter would have.
   4. Red Voodooin Posted: September 08, 2005 at 09:41 PM (#1605756)
they probably would have let Jeter actually, you know, PLAY there, though...
   5. zempf Posted: September 08, 2005 at 10:07 PM (#1605845)
Go Browns.



*sigh*
   6. MLB Posted: September 08, 2005 at 10:09 PM (#1605850)
Oh, I'm going to that game, too, zempf. We can have all sorts of Cleveland meetup this weekend.
   7. villageidiom Posted: September 08, 2005 at 10:11 PM (#1605857)
And please no Derek Jeter/Tom Brady comparisions.

There's no comparison. Tom Brady, to the best of my knowledge, has never grounded into a double play in a clutch situation.
   8. 1k5v3L Posted: September 08, 2005 at 10:13 PM (#1605866)
Who's the Browns QB this year? Todd Marinovich?
   9. zempf Posted: September 08, 2005 at 10:18 PM (#1605885)
Who’s the Browns QB this year? Todd Marinovich?

Trent Dilfer.


*sigh*
   10. zempf Posted: September 08, 2005 at 10:19 PM (#1605893)
Oh, I'm not going to the game.. just noting my lack of hope in the Brownies this season. Luckily my girlfriend's from Philadelphia, so I can piggyback on her Eagles fandom.
   11. Los Angeles Waterloo of Black Hawk Posted: September 08, 2005 at 10:36 PM (#1605934)
It’s also the Pats first step to doing something that has never been done before, a three straight SB titles.

Bah. I do that on Madden all the time.
   12. MLB Posted: September 08, 2005 at 10:40 PM (#1605944)
I haven't paid much attention to football in a few years. I expect the Browns to be terrible, because that's what I'm told, but maybe not so much, because the NFL always seems randomly to confound expectations.
   13. Schilling's Sprained Ankiel Posted: September 08, 2005 at 10:47 PM (#1605963)
One thing is a certainty - my Phins will own one of the top few draft picks after this season. Gus Frerotte is not the answer!
DB
   14. MLB Posted: September 08, 2005 at 10:54 PM (#1605982)
What happened to that nice Jewish boy the Dolphins were using at QB?
   15. Schilling's Sprained Ankiel Posted: September 08, 2005 at 11:01 PM (#1605997)
Sage Rosenfels? I have no idea why they didn't take a chance with him, given the alternatives. He played well in the preseason. He's always been that guy who's been "young" and a quarterback for the "future." Meh.
Feely sucks.
DB
   16. Dan Fords cousin Posted: September 08, 2005 at 11:01 PM (#1605998)
This is the year of the Raiders, right? I mean with Moss, Lamont, Collins etc. we are looking at a Warner-led early 2000's Rams copy. Including the lack of defense, I guess.

Seriously, though, I think the Raiders have a good chance of stealing tonights game, adding to the Raider hype and promptly losing five in a row.
   17. MLB Posted: September 08, 2005 at 11:32 PM (#1606084)
Fiedler's the one I had in mind. Does that show how little attention I've paid to the NFL?
   18. Los Angeles Waterloo of Black Hawk Posted: September 08, 2005 at 11:38 PM (#1606099)
I think the Raiders have improved, but I don't see them being a Rams-like force. They'll steal a couple of wins, especially as the Chargers and aging Chiefs likely have wins to give in that division. I just don't have a lot of confidence in Kerry Collins. Or Tuiasosopo. (And though he won't do anything as a third-string rookie, I'm curious to see what would happen when Andrew Walter gets a look.)

Which is good, as I'm anti-Raiders.
   19. . . . . . . Posted: September 08, 2005 at 11:51 PM (#1606126)
Brady went to Michigan, and Jeter would have.


Jeter did go to Michigan...he's part way to a degree, and has stated he's going to finish it up after his career. Its one of the few reasons I don't detest him, actually.
   20. JoeD has the Imperial March Stuck in His Head Posted: September 08, 2005 at 11:55 PM (#1606141)
A buddy of mine, whose football knowledge I deeply respect went to Skins camp a few years ago, when Jeff George and company were there (I forget who the other name was Ramsey? I know Woeful was there too). He said that Rosenfels blew the others away, was by far the best QB they had in camp, and that he could actually have a career if he got a chance. So there may be hope in Dolphinville yet . . .
   21. The Original SJ Posted: September 09, 2005 at 12:10 AM (#1606188)
How is Lamont Jordan doing? I got killed in an espn fantasy league for trading McNabb Donald Driver, and Jordan for Portis, Brady and Drew Bennett.

Killed. Like I was throwing it intentionally
   22. ekogan Posted: September 09, 2005 at 12:19 AM (#1606222)
Must Yankee fans hate the Pats?
   23. VG Posted: September 09, 2005 at 12:26 AM (#1606244)
And please no Derek Jeter/Tom Brady comparisions. In football a quarterback has the impact of a starting pitcher who can start 4 times a week.

Baloney. A quarterback plays in maybe 40% of his team's plays. And while a dominant starting pitcher can somewhat overcome a terrible team, a great quarterback on a terrible team will probably spend most of the game running for his life.

Tom Brady is a very good quarterback, but he wouldn't be fellated by Madden et al if he didn't play on an excellent team. If anything, the Brady-Jeter comparison is unfair to Jeter.
   24. VG Posted: September 09, 2005 at 12:29 AM (#1606260)
A quarterback does have more impact than a shortstop, that I will grant, but I think it's outlandish to think a quarterback's impact is equivalent to having a great pitcher who can start 100 games in a season.
   25. The Original SJ Posted: September 09, 2005 at 12:34 AM (#1606282)
espn.com fantasy site is crashing right now

HAHA!
   26. ekogan Posted: September 09, 2005 at 12:41 AM (#1606305)
Football Outsiders QB stats

Football Outsiders rate P. Manning's 2004 season as worth 189 points above replacement. Since 24 points on average will win an NFL game, that comes out to 8 wins or half of the season total. Now Manning had one of the greatest QB seasons ever last year, but still, even the greatest year by a baseball position player never accounted for half a season worth of wins.

QBs are more valuable than any single player in baseball.
   27. Curse of the Graffanino (dfan) Posted: September 09, 2005 at 12:44 AM (#1606324)
So the Colts would have gone 4-12 with a replacement level quarterback?

I guess part of the issue in football is that replacement level for quarterbacks is generally pretty bad.
   28. The elusive Robert Denby Posted: September 09, 2005 at 12:45 AM (#1606325)
Is there anything as vile and pointless as NFL pregame/halftime entertainment? Freddie Prinze, Jr. is the perfect host for this crap.
   29. Los Angeles Waterloo of Black Hawk Posted: September 09, 2005 at 12:46 AM (#1606326)
I don't know that saying Manning's season was worth 189 points above replacement is, strictly, a proper interpretation. What it means is that Manning, with that offensive line and those receivers, was worth 189 points. The Outsiders acknowledges this, and it is a real difference.
   30. VG Posted: September 09, 2005 at 12:48 AM (#1606330)
I guess part of the issue in football is that replacement level for quarterbacks is generally pretty bad.

Don't I know it. I'm a Bears fan.
   31. Bernal Diaz has an angel on his shoulder Posted: September 09, 2005 at 12:50 AM (#1606332)
The Browns QB for this year is Charlie Frye after Dilfer gets hurt in the first game.
   32. Los Angeles Waterloo of Black Hawk Posted: September 09, 2005 at 12:51 AM (#1606337)
FO has Manning at 170.1 Points Above Replacement once you adjust for defense.

His brother was at -13.3 on 208 passing plays; Peyton had 509, so if you project that out, Eli would have had -32.5, meaning a 200 point difference between the Manning brothers.
   33. Greg Maddux School of Reflexive Profanity Posted: September 09, 2005 at 12:51 AM (#1606338)
QBs are more valuable than any single player in baseball.

That, or their metric isn't worth dick. You decide.
   34. Mister High Standards Posted: September 09, 2005 at 12:58 AM (#1606360)
The outsiders stats are worthless. Stats in general in the NFL are worthless accept for wins. The main reason the stats are useless is they don't isolate performance of the player from the team.

A running back runs for 100 yards in a game. How much is because of line play? How much is due to defense being forced to spread due to a strong throwing game? How much is it the defense giving the team the run, to prevent big plays?

The outsiders do as good a job of keeping the "books" as anyone in re: to the NFL, yet their stats are still worthless because it is impossiable to track stats in any meaningful way without play by play video tape grading of every player on every play for every team.

I do think teamlevel stats have merit, but player evaluation based on stats have little value.
   35. covelli chris p Posted: September 09, 2005 at 12:59 AM (#1606364)
what ever happened to that drew henson guy?
   36. zempf Posted: September 09, 2005 at 12:59 AM (#1606365)
Don’t I know it. I’m a Bears fan.

Poor Craig Krenzel. Why couldn't he just take his degree in microbiology & go cure cancer or something? Apparently he's the #3 QB for the Bengals this year.
   37. Urban Faber Posted: September 09, 2005 at 01:01 AM (#1606371)
Bengals is correct. Unless he wants to use his degree he'll probably be an offensive coordinator within 10 years.

Henson's in Dallas, isn't he? Or did they cut him?
   38. Mister High Standards Posted: September 09, 2005 at 01:02 AM (#1606373)
Rarely will you see a team with good quarterback play miss thepost season. There must be a reason for that.

Its one reason why I expect the Bengals to make the playoffs this year. Palmer has improved to the point where if he is healthy it will be very tough for the Bengals to miss the playoffs despite many holes on the defensive side of the ball and at the running back position.
   39. VG Posted: September 09, 2005 at 01:02 AM (#1606375)
Poor Craig Krenzel. Why couldn’t he just take his degree in microbiology & go cure cancer or something? Apparently he’s the #3 QB for the Bengals this year.

He should be the third or practice squad quarterback for either Baltimore or Washington, so he could work at the NIH or Johns Hopkins or something at the same time. Then it wouldn't be such a waste. But I think being the QB of a national championship Ohio State team is what got him the Bengals job as much as anything else.
   40. Los Angeles Waterloo of Black Hawk Posted: September 09, 2005 at 01:03 AM (#1606378)
Rauseo, the Outsiders do have numbers for "Line Yards" and the like, so they are aware of the problems you describe. It ain't perfect (they admit that), and there's a lot of work to do, but I trust their numbers over traditional statistics or the ravings of most network analysts.
   41. Mister High Standards Posted: September 09, 2005 at 01:08 AM (#1606399)
I definitly agree the Outsiders stats have much more meaning than traditional stats.

They also do a great job allocating the value of a player to a team, but they do a lousy job of allocating the value to the players. Its not due to metric design issue, its a limitation. Somthing that can't be corrected.

I'll take a qualified and informed opinion based on video tape analysis and game charts to the stats any day.
   42. Evil Tom Posted: September 09, 2005 at 01:10 AM (#1606410)
How is Lamont Jordan doing? I got killed in an espn fantasy league for trading McNabb Donald Driver, and Jordan for Portis, Brady and Drew Bennett.

Killed. Like I was throwing it intentionally


The ADP on fantasyfootball.com shows McNabb rated ahead of Brady but Portis and Bennett are higher rated than Driver and Jordan.

My evaluation - depending on the rules - I think you're getting the better end of it by a small margin.

If they think this is one sided you're playing against guppies.
   43. Los Angeles Waterloo of Black Hawk Posted: September 09, 2005 at 01:12 AM (#1606415)
Rarely will you see a team with good quarterback play miss thepost season. There must be a reason for that.

I think the reason is that there are 12 teams in the playoff and 32 teams in the league. So there are only about 12-15 QBs in any given year that qualify as above average. Obviously, there will be a lot of overlap.

Besides, I don't know how rare it is. Just last season, Daunte Culpepper and Trent Green both missed the playoffs. Green was probably better, or in the same company, as playoff QBs like Jake Plummer and Chad Pennington, and Culpepper was better.

Its one reason why I expect the Bengals to make the playoffs this year. Palmer has improved to the point where if he is healthy it will be very tough for the Bengals to miss the playoffs despite many holes on the defensive side of the ball and at the running back position.

Rudi Johnson's a pretty good RB. What's odd to me about Palmer is that the guy has had only one good season in his life past the age of 18, and everything thinks he's gonna be great. He was better than he looked last year, thanks to a tough schedule, but if Chad Johnson gets hurt, he's not going to have a security blanket to throw to (Johnson was the intended receiver on 169 passes last season, a huge amount) and he's gonna get killed.
   44. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: September 09, 2005 at 01:12 AM (#1606416)
Not off to the best start here.
   45. Mister High Standards Posted: September 09, 2005 at 01:14 AM (#1606422)
Not a pretty drive. Linebacker play by the pats was poor, that drive.

WHere is Bruschi!
   46. The Rafael Bournigal fan club Posted: September 09, 2005 at 01:14 AM (#1606423)
Oakland +7.5

Woooo....!
   47. Evil Tom Posted: September 09, 2005 at 01:14 AM (#1606424)
The Vikings made the playoffs and even won a game last year.
   48. Los Angeles Waterloo of Black Hawk Posted: September 09, 2005 at 01:19 AM (#1606434)
The Vikings made the playoffs and even won a game last year.

I am such an idiot. I looked at the 8-8 record and didn't even remember how bad the NFC was that year.
   49. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: September 09, 2005 at 01:20 AM (#1606437)
I'm liking this Watson character.
   50. Mister High Standards Posted: September 09, 2005 at 01:21 AM (#1606442)
Ben Watson is a beast.

He is out running safties. They need to not be running it up the middle... Washington/Sapp are just too frigging big. Compared to the smaller pats interior lineman.
   51. The Rafael Bournigal fan club Posted: September 09, 2005 at 01:22 AM (#1606445)
Is Brady overthrowing a lot or is it just me?
   52. Mister High Standards Posted: September 09, 2005 at 01:24 AM (#1606453)
Automatic Adam hits it!

On Palmer - the guy just shows such increadible flashes of brilliance, its hard to think he won't be very good once he gains the maturity needed to read defenses and make adjustments.

I like the Chiefs this year. If their O LIne can stay healthy I think they can be very good. I like the speed they added to their D, which I think will be competitive this year though not good.
   53. Mister High Standards Posted: September 09, 2005 at 01:26 AM (#1606457)
No - he did overthrow once on that drive, he didn't over throw in the End ZOne, he was being carful with the ball... their was nothing there in regard to points.
   54. Evil Tom Posted: September 09, 2005 at 01:27 AM (#1606462)
Brady missed a couple. The key to the game is which D can get some stops/turnovers on the other teams offense.
   55. Mister High Standards Posted: September 09, 2005 at 01:28 AM (#1606466)
Hello flag... he was in the pckett and no recievers in the secondary.

I like the Pats Dline/Blitzers versus the Raiders Oline in this game.
   56. Mister High Standards Posted: September 09, 2005 at 01:30 AM (#1606469)
That was not a penalty.

Finally a second and long.
   57. Evil Tom Posted: September 09, 2005 at 01:31 AM (#1606475)
Palmer improved as the year went on last season but his season was cut short when he was injured in the Patriots game.

If the Bengals D can do anything this year they've got a shot at a WC.
   58. Mister High Standards Posted: September 09, 2005 at 01:32 AM (#1606476)
WOW. 2 linebacker covering Moss, Brown and McGuinist... scary.
   59. Mister High Standards Posted: September 09, 2005 at 01:34 AM (#1606481)
Well Brown was in a drop zone... but Big Willie versus Moss... they must have had a ton of over the Top help.

I would have liked to see what Collins was looking at that caused him to burn a timeout.
   60. Mister High Standards Posted: September 09, 2005 at 01:36 AM (#1606488)
Come on Rodney put a hurt on the pot head. Make him afraid to go up for the ball.

Nice return by Dwight. The Pats needed help in the return game, it will be intresting to see how they shape up this year.
   61. Mister High Standards Posted: September 09, 2005 at 01:37 AM (#1606491)
Gina Davis put on some weight. Almost a porker.
   62. Urban Faber Posted: September 09, 2005 at 01:40 AM (#1606498)
How soon before the Pats and other NFL players have BTF-style nicknames?
   63. The Rafael Bournigal fan club Posted: September 09, 2005 at 01:42 AM (#1606507)
Ahhh #### nice defense guys.
   64. Mister High Standards Posted: September 09, 2005 at 01:42 AM (#1606508)
Put it on the board!!

Deiooooooooooon Branch!! Mr Superbowl!
   65. Mister High Standards Posted: September 09, 2005 at 01:45 AM (#1606515)
In one of his recent press conferences Billy was talking about Branchs strengths! And the number one thing he referenced his ability to find holes in the defense.

See Touch Down Pass.
   66. VG Posted: September 09, 2005 at 01:47 AM (#1606523)
And I started Branch over Porter on my fantasy team! Woo-hoo!

(Or did Porter score the TD for the Raiders? Not watching the game.)
   67. Mister High Standards Posted: September 09, 2005 at 01:50 AM (#1606530)
No not porter...

That was a nice 3 down call by the raiders... you see so many teams try and play action on 3-2... just running the ball when the pats were struggling to stop it made all the sense in the world.
   68. Mister High Standards Posted: September 09, 2005 at 01:51 AM (#1606533)
bad call... no hands on the face.

My god these officials... 3 missed calls all ready.
   69. Mister High Standards Posted: September 09, 2005 at 01:53 AM (#1606535)
Nice throw by Collins... good job stepping up.
   70. Mister High Standards Posted: September 09, 2005 at 01:56 AM (#1606542)
I like the way the Pats are playing... I hate the way they are thinking. Mental mistakes and blown assignments are costing them points which is very unpat like.

Well would have cost them points if they had Automatic Adam.
   71. Mister High Standards Posted: September 09, 2005 at 01:58 AM (#1606548)
The Pats skill position players are going to eat up the Raiders secondary if they cant get some kind of pass rush.
   72. Mister High Standards Posted: September 09, 2005 at 02:00 AM (#1606551)
no more discipline and or mental mistakes. Stop it.

Not the Pats way.
   73. The Rafael Bournigal fan club Posted: September 09, 2005 at 02:04 AM (#1606560)
Moss>you.
   74. Mister High Standards Posted: September 09, 2005 at 02:05 AM (#1606564)
BAH!

Danm Moss! Damn Poole and Harrison for making a mental mistakes.

Poor Coverage.
   75. Los Angeles Waterloo of Black Hawk Posted: September 09, 2005 at 02:10 AM (#1606581)
Holy cow, the Pats are behind!

I think I took that Pats and the points in the Primer Pick' em League. I almost changed it to Raiders today, but didn't.
   76. Mister High Standards Posted: September 09, 2005 at 02:14 AM (#1606595)
Not anymore!

The Pats really are physicly outplaying the Raiders. Whats unusual is they are beating themselves. A trend I wouldnt expect to continue.
   77. Mister High Standards Posted: September 09, 2005 at 02:19 AM (#1606611)
cut the ####!!

Stop it!!

No more penalties... The Raiders are playing a more technically sound game than the Pats... i want to yak.
   78. The Rafael Bournigal fan club Posted: September 09, 2005 at 02:24 AM (#1606627)
Is "mommy you smell different" the worst promo line ever?
   79. Los Angeles Waterloo of Black Hawk Posted: September 09, 2005 at 02:29 AM (#1606648)
I'm not so sure that wasn't a catch, but I swee how they don't ahve enough to overturn it.
   80. JoeD has the Imperial March Stuck in His Head Posted: September 09, 2005 at 02:35 AM (#1606666)
There is no way the 24 points to swing a game can be accurate. It's much higher than that.

Think about it, in a 4-5 R/G environment in baseball it takes 10 runs more or less to swing a game in the standings.

NFL averages right around 20-21 PPG.

The Colts scored 522 and allowed 351 last year.

Removing 189 points from their offense would drop them to 333-351 or probably 7-9. I'm not sure what the pythag for 522-351 is, but I'm pretty sure 12-4 isn't too far off. Isn't the exponent 2.5 or 3 or something for NFL games? Colts played high scoring games, so using 3, which can't be too far off, you get 12.2-3.8. Removing 189 points you get 7.4-8.6, or 4.8 wins for 189 points, or about 40 points to swing a game in the standings which makes much more sense.
   81. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: September 09, 2005 at 02:43 AM (#1606681)
i'm not happy with this first half. this is the oakland raiders, for christ sakes.
   82. JoeD has the Imperial March Stuck in His Head Posted: September 09, 2005 at 02:48 AM (#1606686)
Also, if I understand the Outsiders stats, that is supposed to be just Manning. They rate the receivers separately. It could be Manning + the pass protection of the O-Line, but I believe they even attempt to adjust for that.

I think it makes reasonable sense that an all-time great passing season could easily swing 4-5 games in an NFL season and take a .500 team to a 12-4, 13-3 type season. I'm suprised anyone would question that.
   83. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: September 09, 2005 at 02:51 AM (#1606690)
hella punt. downed on the 3.
   84. Mister High Standards Posted: September 09, 2005 at 02:54 AM (#1606696)
If the raiders are going to pin back their ears on second and third down then we need some screen passes!!
   85. Mister High Standards Posted: September 09, 2005 at 02:56 AM (#1606700)
Jared Cooper is so good on teams I wonder if raider fans appreciate him.
   86. The Rafael Bournigal fan club Posted: September 09, 2005 at 02:56 AM (#1606701)
I do not feel good about this game.
   87. Answer Guy, without side hustles. Posted: September 09, 2005 at 03:01 AM (#1606710)
Evening, gentlemen.
   88. Answer Guy, without side hustles. Posted: September 09, 2005 at 03:02 AM (#1606712)
Way to pin 'em back, Miller. Well done.
   89. Answer Guy, without side hustles. Posted: September 09, 2005 at 03:06 AM (#1606719)
OK. Essentially one first down from FG range here. But a TD would be nice.
   90. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: September 09, 2005 at 03:08 AM (#1606720)
Is “mommy you smell different” the worst promo line ever?

Is she risking a patient's life?
   91. Mister High Standards Posted: September 09, 2005 at 03:08 AM (#1606721)
evening boss...

DIllon needs to stop trying to bounce outside and drop his head and pound em.

Damn! Raiders sniffed out that screen well.
   92. Mister High Standards Posted: September 09, 2005 at 03:11 AM (#1606724)
evening boss...

DIllon needs to stop trying to bounce outside and drop his head and pound em.

Damn! Raiders sniffed out that screen well.
   93. The Rafael Bournigal fan club Posted: September 09, 2005 at 03:12 AM (#1606726)
Love going for it there. Marty Shottenheimer would never do that...

Also love that they didn't make it.

And at least "Is she risking a patient’s life?" made sense.
   94. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: September 09, 2005 at 03:12 AM (#1606727)
Or his her father the District Attorney?
   95. Mister High Standards Posted: September 09, 2005 at 03:12 AM (#1606729)
Thats the down side to not carrying a real full back. A real full back clears out that inside linebacker and Dillon picks up another half a yard and a first.

Damn it!
   96. Answer Guy, without side hustles. Posted: September 09, 2005 at 03:13 AM (#1606731)
I can't say I like the fact that Oakland has pretty much shut down the Pats' running game.
   97. covelli chris p Posted: September 09, 2005 at 03:15 AM (#1606732)
wilfork is awesome
   98. The Rafael Bournigal fan club Posted: September 09, 2005 at 03:15 AM (#1606733)
#### fuck #### fuck #### a thousand #####
   99. Mister High Standards Posted: September 09, 2005 at 03:15 AM (#1606734)
great job by the D Line!!
   100. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: September 09, 2005 at 03:16 AM (#1606736)
that's more ####### like it.

interception or fumble recovery?
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