BBTF's Game Chatter Discussion :: RedSox (43-43) @ Rays (45-41), Friday, July 13, 2012, 7:10pm

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Friday, July 13, 2012

RedSox (43-43) @ Rays (45-41), Friday, July 13, 2012, 7:10pm

BOS:Franklin Morales (26, LHP, 1-2, 3.50)
TBR:Jeremy Hellickson (25, RHP, 4-5, 3.41)

The Primer Chimp Posted: July 13, 2012 at 10:00 AM | 108 comment(s)
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1. Chip Posted: July 13, 2012 at 06:38 PM (#4182002)

Adrian Gonzalez is out again recovering from the flu that kept him out of the Sunday night game before the break.

Or is this a coverup for some heavy cortisone treatment for his shoulder?

2. Dan Posted: July 13, 2012 at 06:44 PM (#4182005)

Who the hell knows? Hell of a bad omen to start the second half this way though.

3. Chip Posted: July 13, 2012 at 07:00 PM (#4182017)

If you want another bad omen, for the truly superstitious:

Jacoby Ellsbury dislocated his shoulder on Friday the 13th of April.

Against Tampa Bay.

He returns to the lineup on Friday the 13th of July.

Against Tampa Bay.

If the Rays want to be clever they should put a ladder over the path to the visitor's on deck circle at the Trop, then drop a black cat into the ray tank in centerfield.

4. Chip Posted: July 13, 2012 at 07:14 PM (#4182024)

Ellsbury makes an out. Obviously not ready to play.

5. Joe Bivens, Minor Genius Posted: July 13, 2012 at 07:17 PM (#4182026)

Well.

6. Chip Posted: July 13, 2012 at 07:18 PM (#4182027)

Papi!

Worst thing that could have happened to Hellickson was getting that undeserved autostrike on 3-0. Made him think he could sneak a pitch by Ortiz on 3-1. Uh uh.

7. Joe Bivens, Minor Genius Posted: July 13, 2012 at 07:22 PM (#4182030)

Yeah, that's what Papi said: Uh uh. With a Hulk Hogan finger wag.

8. Joe Bivens, Minor Genius Posted: July 13, 2012 at 07:23 PM (#4182032)

So, 3 rookies in the infield, with Aviles?

9. Dan Posted: July 13, 2012 at 07:25 PM (#4182033)

My MLB.tv is just hanging on "this game will begin shortly" for some reason...

10. Joe Bivens, Minor Genius Posted: July 13, 2012 at 07:26 PM (#4182034)

So, no spoilers?

11. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 13, 2012 at 07:28 PM (#4182035)

I just came by to check if anyone else's MLBtv wasn't working. Ok.

I propose that we elect Papi as World Emperor.

12. Dan Posted: July 13, 2012 at 07:32 PM (#4182038)

Some kind of defense there on both ends.

13. Jay Seaver Posted: July 13, 2012 at 07:32 PM (#4182040)

It's a poor craftsman who blames his tools, Gomes.

14. Dan Posted: July 13, 2012 at 07:32 PM (#4182041)

Boy I'm glad we dumped Youkilis so that we can play Mauro Gomez at first base when Adrian is hurt (or ill or whatever)

15. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 13, 2012 at 07:32 PM (#4182042)

I propose we elect Papi as first baseman.

16. Dan Posted: July 13, 2012 at 07:33 PM (#4182043)

Guaranteed that Ortiz is a better defender than Gomez.

Gomez booting a ball in ST is what caused Andrew Bailey's thumb injury in the collision at first base too, which most people have forgotten.

17. Chip Posted: July 13, 2012 at 07:33 PM (#4182044)

Papi is a perfectly competent first baseman and should be playing there when Gonzalez can't.

Still, if Gonzalez hadn't gotten that second cortisone shot ...

18. Chip Posted: July 13, 2012 at 07:35 PM (#4182046)

Not sure what Upton could possibly be arguing about.

19. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 13, 2012 at 07:36 PM (#4182047)

If Papi got hurt, this team would go 10-70 for the second half.

20. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 13, 2012 at 07:36 PM (#4182049)

He's literally worth 30 wins all by himself. No exaggeration.

21. Chip Posted: July 13, 2012 at 07:39 PM (#4182051)

Amica pitch zone says strike three to Middlebrooks was well off the plate inside. As bad a call as the one to Ortiz on 3-0.

22. Jay Seaver Posted: July 13, 2012 at 07:42 PM (#4182053)

I do not understand this strike zone.

23. Joe Bivens, Minor Genius Posted: July 13, 2012 at 07:42 PM (#4182054)

Lamonkeyface draws the BB.

24. Chip Posted: July 13, 2012 at 07:43 PM (#4182055)

Which makes me wonder if the advent of PitchFx data will finally solve the question of whether rookies get worse strike zones than veterans.

Also, there's Middlebrooks showing good strike zone judgment, when his minor+major numbers don't show great ability in that regard, and he gets burned for it.

25. Chip Posted: July 13, 2012 at 07:45 PM (#4182056)

Hellickson wondering what happened to the zone that got him the K of Middlebrooks.

26. Chip Posted: July 13, 2012 at 07:46 PM (#4182057)

And Aviles wondering what happened to the zone that earned Salty and Sweeney BBs.

27. Chip Posted: July 13, 2012 at 07:49 PM (#4182059)

Squander time.

28. Jay Seaver Posted: July 13, 2012 at 07:49 PM (#4182060)

Runs!

29. Chip Posted: July 13, 2012 at 07:50 PM (#4182061)

Nick Punto, you're about to be traded for the PTBNL.

30. Chip Posted: July 13, 2012 at 07:53 PM (#4182064)

If Ellsbury didn't have enough minors ABs to be able to recognize quality breaking stuff, as Remy suggests, why do you bat him leadoff in his first game back?

31. Chip Posted: July 13, 2012 at 08:16 PM (#4182073)

Did Egraphs.com pay for this Gabe Kapler appearance on NESN?

32. Jay Seaver Posted: July 13, 2012 at 08:17 PM (#4182074)

One hopes. I wasn't aware he had re-retired, actually.

33. Phil Coorey. Posted: July 13, 2012 at 08:25 PM (#4182076)

Morning all - hope everyone is well.

If Gonzo is out tomorrow can Ortiz play first and Lavarnway DH ? Every ####### game counts now - this is a joke

34. Jay Seaver Posted: July 13, 2012 at 08:28 PM (#4182077)

Gomez looks bad even when he makes an out.

35. Phil Coorey. Posted: July 13, 2012 at 08:29 PM (#4182078)

Gomez looks bad even when he makes an out.

It makes me sick just thinking about him

36. Phil Coorey. Posted: July 13, 2012 at 08:30 PM (#4182079)

In other news - Breaking Bad Season 5 in two nights - FFY!!!!!

Can't wait !

37. Phil Coorey. Posted: July 13, 2012 at 08:31 PM (#4182081)

Would love to see if the 2-1 swing and miss to Upton was a strike - that was a filthy pitch

38. Chip Posted: July 13, 2012 at 08:31 PM (#4182082)

Gomez really hasn't looked bad at the plate - he's hit the snot out of the ball, actually. It's just in the field that he's a disaster.

39. Jay Seaver Posted: July 13, 2012 at 08:34 PM (#4182084)

Oh, he looks like he can hit. But I do wonder if maybe he and Ortiz should trade positions.

40. Phil Coorey. Posted: July 13, 2012 at 08:38 PM (#4182087)

This wont end well

41. Chip Posted: July 13, 2012 at 08:39 PM (#4182088)

Strike zone absurdity gets worse.

42. Phil Coorey. Posted: July 13, 2012 at 08:40 PM (#4182089)

How about you freaking focus on the third out now - jesus - this team is such a ####### ########### to watch

43. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: July 13, 2012 at 08:40 PM (#4182091)

Sean Rodriguez has a green light on 3-0?

44. Jay Seaver Posted: July 13, 2012 at 08:41 PM (#4182092)

The heck is up with this, Morales?

45. Phil Coorey. Posted: July 13, 2012 at 08:42 PM (#4182094)

This is unbearable to watch - one freaking out - jesus

46. Chip Posted: July 13, 2012 at 08:42 PM (#4182095)

If Lester or Beckett were pitching, you could book this grand slam now. The question is whether our emergency fifth starter has lowered himself to the top of the rotation level.

47. Jay Seaver Posted: July 13, 2012 at 08:43 PM (#4182096)

Throw. Strikes.

48. Jay Seaver Posted: July 13, 2012 at 08:45 PM (#4182097)

A Luke Scott strikeout is a very satisfying end to that inning.

49. Phil Coorey. Posted: July 13, 2012 at 08:45 PM (#4182098)

Good god - I did not expect that - I only assume the absolute worst now

50. Chip Posted: July 13, 2012 at 08:45 PM (#4182099)

Two big gifts from the racist. Phew.

51. Jay Seaver Posted: July 13, 2012 at 08:49 PM (#4182104)

Well, Ciriacco can run a little bit.

52. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: July 13, 2012 at 08:50 PM (#4182105)

Ellsbury is not having a strong first game back.

53. Chip Posted: July 13, 2012 at 08:51 PM (#4182106)

Ellsbury sucks.

54. Chip Posted: July 13, 2012 at 08:54 PM (#4182111)

Joe Maddon seems to think Mauro Gomez is as bad a hitter as he is a fielder.

55. Chip Posted: July 13, 2012 at 08:55 PM (#4182114)

Even if this works it's not just Joe Girardi dumb, it's Buck Showalter dumb in the IBB category.

56. Phil Coorey. Posted: July 13, 2012 at 09:05 PM (#4182120)

My god - I just exploded on a staff member who is half an hour late to work.

57. Phil Coorey. Posted: July 13, 2012 at 09:13 PM (#4182123)

Anyone wonder if Sweeney will hit a home run this season?

58. Jay Seaver Posted: July 13, 2012 at 09:20 PM (#4182128)

I'm guessing that one's on Aviles.

59. Phil Coorey. Posted: July 13, 2012 at 09:31 PM (#4182138)

Guess he saved a run there ...

60. Dan Posted: July 13, 2012 at 09:31 PM (#4182140)

I'm glad I'm not the only one who thought it was weird the broadcast was giving free promotional time to Gabe Kapler's business. Both NESN and Sun Sports did it too!

61. Phil Coorey. Posted: July 13, 2012 at 09:33 PM (#4182141)

This only has one possible outcome

62. Phil Coorey. Posted: July 13, 2012 at 09:34 PM (#4182142)

Am I seeing things - or did Albers throw 3 really good pitches ?

63. Chip Posted: July 13, 2012 at 09:35 PM (#4182145)

There's been much discussion about how extreme shifting can skew defensive numbers in favor of players like Aviles, especially in short sample sizes, but isn't that first play an example of the shift skewing numbers against him? A SS never has to make a play or a throw at that angle off the bat. His bad throw seemed to be totally the result of him being in an unnatural fielding position.

64. Dan Posted: July 13, 2012 at 09:37 PM (#4182146)

Sure but a good defensive stat won't penalize him for failing to convert an OOZ play.

65. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: July 13, 2012 at 09:37 PM (#4182147)

BABIP is really smiling on Ciriaco.

66. Chip Posted: July 13, 2012 at 09:40 PM (#4182150)

Sure but a good defensive stat won't penalize him for failing to convert an OOZ play.

I haven't paid enough attention to how particular defensive stats account for OOZ stuff in a shift. Do some of them throw out every shift BIP for a SS if he's on the other side of second base, for example?

67. Phil Coorey. Posted: July 13, 2012 at 09:40 PM (#4182151)

BABIP is really smiling on Ciriaco.

I'm always surprised when a ball lands in Tampa...

68. Phil Coorey. Posted: July 13, 2012 at 09:41 PM (#4182152)

Scott Downs just gave up a 3 run homer - take your era and shove it buddy

69. Chip Posted: July 13, 2012 at 09:43 PM (#4182153)

And that after walking the lefty Granderson, Phil.

70. Chip Posted: July 13, 2012 at 09:43 PM (#4182155)

Jacoby Ellsbury thanks AstroTurf for that hit.

71. Chip Posted: July 13, 2012 at 09:44 PM (#4182158)

Don't.

Bunt.

72. Dan Posted: July 13, 2012 at 09:51 PM (#4182167)

I haven't paid enough attention to how particular defensive stats account for OOZ stuff in a shift. Do some of them throw out every shift BIP for a SS if he's on the other side of second base, for example?

DRS basically will give you massive credit for making a play in a shift, and almost no deficit for failing to make it. Not sure how they handle the extra base on the errant throw.

My understanding is that UZR will ignore such a play, successful or not.

FRAA will give credit against the likelihood that a team makes an out on a ball hit there, or attempt to anyway. I think it basically works similar to TangoTiger's WOWY stat, where it's comparing the rate a player makes outs against league average for the positiion while accounting for park, pitcher, hitter handedness, etc.

Personally I trust FRAA more than anything right now, not that anyone is waiting with baited breath to hear my pronouncement on the issue. But I think Wyers showed clear evidence that the BIS data has massive biases in it that distort DRS and UZR, and of course he's illustrated the issues DRS has with defensive shifts by pointing out Lawrie's extreme example.

73. Phil Coorey. Posted: July 13, 2012 at 09:53 PM (#4182169)

AG is available to pinch hit?

74. Dan Posted: July 13, 2012 at 09:55 PM (#4182170)

Yay Gomez!

75. Phil Coorey. Posted: July 13, 2012 at 09:55 PM (#4182171)

You useless ####### fuck - jesus - nice squander

76. Chip Posted: July 13, 2012 at 09:55 PM (#4182173)

Maddon completely unthreatened by faux appearance of Gonzalez on the on-deck circle in an attempt to abort IBB to Ortiz. Why would Maddon be threatened by that?

77. Dan Posted: July 13, 2012 at 09:57 PM (#4182177)

Maddon completely unthreatened by faux appearance of Gonzalez on the on-deck circle in an attempt to abort IBB to Ortiz. Why would Maddon be threatened by that?

Particularly in a GIDP situation. Absolutely hilarious.

78. Phil Coorey. Posted: July 13, 2012 at 09:58 PM (#4182179)

Lobaton getting on , could make me explode - I'm unusually angry today.

79. Phil Coorey. Posted: July 13, 2012 at 10:09 PM (#4182193)

Pretty confident Angels fans will be pissed at that loss

80. Chip Posted: July 13, 2012 at 10:10 PM (#4182197)

####### supposedly good Angels not only blow lead but lose.

Although I guess we're supposed to root against them for wild card reasons or something.

81. Dan Posted: July 13, 2012 at 10:14 PM (#4182200)

Did he seriously just try to get away with 2 eephus pitches in a row??? That's just out loud stupid.

82. Chip Posted: July 13, 2012 at 10:14 PM (#4182201)

Dumbass Padilla and his dumbass consecutive eephus pitches.

83. Phil Coorey. Posted: July 13, 2012 at 10:15 PM (#4182202)

Although I guess we're supposed to root against them for wild card reasons or something.

I'm not sure rooting for anyone is necessary...

This will not end well - god damn squander earlier ensured that

84. Dan Posted: July 13, 2012 at 10:15 PM (#4182203)

Although I guess we're supposed to root against them for wild card reasons or something.

Swisher robbed a 2nd homer from Trumbo too. Was at least a 2 run shot, if not 3, potentially, I think. So they still would've won if not for that play. Bleh.

I'm still rooting against the Yankees, WC consequences be damned.

85. Dan Posted: July 13, 2012 at 10:16 PM (#4182204)

Sweeney is useful!!

86. Phil Coorey. Posted: July 13, 2012 at 10:16 PM (#4182205)

Did he seriously just try to get away with 2 eephus pitches in a row??? That's just out loud stupid.

Yep

Wow - something went the sox way !

87. Jay Seaver Posted: July 13, 2012 at 10:16 PM (#4182206)

Ryan Sweeney's probably not long for the team, but he can be pretty great.

88. Phil Coorey. Posted: July 13, 2012 at 10:17 PM (#4182207)

That really doesn't seem like the best play by Zobrist - what a ####### moron at first glance

89. Textbook Editor Posted: July 13, 2012 at 10:17 PM (#4182208)

Padilla instead of Bard this year for the 8th inning has been... Well, let's just call it a different experience.

90. Phil Coorey. Posted: July 13, 2012 at 10:18 PM (#4182209)

Tip of the hat to Sweeney though as the catch was great

91. Chip Posted: July 13, 2012 at 10:18 PM (#4182210)

Is it wrong of me to be rooting for Punto to be severely injured on Zobrist's dumbass baserunning, which matched Padilla's dumbass pitching to Zobrist?

92. Chip Posted: July 13, 2012 at 10:20 PM (#4182216)

Ryan Westmoreland underwent additional brain surgery today. That is sad.

93. Dan Posted: July 13, 2012 at 10:20 PM (#4182217)

Where did that miss?

94. Dan Posted: July 13, 2012 at 10:21 PM (#4182220)

I saw that on Westmoreland. Just heartrending IMO.

95. Phil Coorey. Posted: July 13, 2012 at 10:23 PM (#4182223)

Ryan Westmoreland underwent additional brain surgery today. That is sad.

Just horrible , horrible news.

I hope he recovers again - he's got a huge heart

96. Phil Coorey. Posted: July 13, 2012 at 10:26 PM (#4182226)

Is it wrong of me to be rooting for Punto to be severely injured on Zobrist's dumbass baserunning, which matched Padilla's dumbass pitching to Zobrist?

No - not at all - we are throwing the book out this year and taking hate to a new level.

97. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: July 13, 2012 at 10:29 PM (#4182231)

The number of times the Red Sox have failed to drive in a runner from third with one out today is staggering.

98. Phil Coorey. Posted: July 13, 2012 at 10:31 PM (#4182233)

Take the 3-1 - get some papi up

99. Phil Coorey. Posted: July 13, 2012 at 10:33 PM (#4182235)

The number of times the Red Sox have failed to drive in a runner from third with one out today is staggering.

Seriously - what is it? 8 ?

I'm looking forward to it costing them the game

100. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: July 13, 2012 at 10:35 PM (#4182237)

Seriously - what is it? 8 ?

Only 3, actually, it's just felt like more.

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