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Gonfalon Cubs — Cubs Baseball for Thinking Fans Monday, March 19, 20182018 Fearless Prediction threadTime for this year’s fearless predictions. The season is starting earlier this year, so I won’t have time to do this after I get back from my spring training trip. As usual, these probably will err on the side of blind optimism, but what fun is it to have a talented team where all you expect is under-performances? On to the list of 25… 1. Willson Contreras will make his first of many All-Star appearances. He probably would have a better shot of being voted in if the mound visit rule were enforced this year. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington
Posted: March 19, 2018 at 03:55 PM | 119 comment(s)
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I think Happ is going to hit .270 with 30 HRs while batting leadoff in >50% of the Cubs' games. He will join Contreras, Rizzo, Bryant, and Schwarber as Cubs with 30+ HRs.
I think the Cubs will finally tire of waiting for Heyward, and in the second half of the season we're going to see Schwarber/Happ/Almora/Zobrist split the lion's share of the OF starts, with Heyward as a defensive replacement for Schwarber most days. I also think they'll package him with a prospect or two this winter and find someone to take him off their hands if he doesn't opt out (which he won't), and then will sign Harper for 8 years and $320 million.
Chatwood will be a very pleasant surprise in the #5 slot, shoring up the back end of a good rotation that sees all 5 starters win 10+ games.
The Cubs will pull away early this year and will have the division largely locked up by the All-Star break. They'll end the year with 100 wins on the nose, beat the Phillies and Dodgers in the NL playoffs, and beat the Astros 4-2 in the Series.
The Cubs set a team record for homeruns. Seven Cubs make the ASG - but Chatwood is the only pitcher. Contreras, Rizzo, Bryant, Happ, Baez, Russell from the field.
All good things come to end, but I don't think this ride is over yet.
He’s a wishcasting Cardinal fan. Let him have his little fantasy.
He's also the guy who thinks the Astros are as guilty as the Cardinals in their hacking scandal. So...
Looking at his spring line - I do notice his BBs and Ks are both at 8 apiece... He's cut his Ks by huge chunks in each of his three seasons, even as his BBs have risen - so I do think this is just part of him becoming a better pure hitter as he gains experience.
Still, a monster Bryant year requires 40-45+ HRs more than it does 100 BBs vs 100 Ks, I think.
Bruce Levine thinks the Cubs are considering Borjous or a 3rd catcher for the last spot (he implies Cartini would be the 3rd guy) or the last reliever being one of Butler, Bass, Justin Hancock or Kyle Ryan. So, no real news, but speculation that lines up with ours at least.
Mooney's thoughts ($):
He kind of reminds me a K-Mart version of Andrew Cashner; i.e., both big, tall guys with hard fastballs but fastballs that don't move a whole lot leading to mediocre K rates.
The Padres doggedly insisted on keeping him in minor league rotations with pretty meh result until moving him to the pen last year (where the Cubs kept him). His K rate popped a bit with the move - though, so did his BB rate, which was never anything to write home about anyway.
He's a guy that probably should have been moved to the bullpen years ago - just let him throw hard, focus on one secondary pitch rather trying to develop a more complete repertoire for SP work and see if he can't be a decent 6th/7th inning option.
He still doesn't miss enough bats - this spring aside - but I could see him becoming a decent flotsam option for a season or two out of the pen. Much as I'd prefer not to go with 8 relievers, I wouldn't be upset if he earns a spot.
I think Kyle Schwarber will be the breakout star of 2018. Maybe a -10 in the field and a .900 OPS; I'm not saying he will make people forget about Bryant or Rizzo.
The thing with Schwarber that I didn't realize until last week when I happened to look is how absolutely horrific he has been against LHP. SSS and all that but in 159 PA he is at .159/.270/.312. If he can hit lefties even a little bit I think he is a monster.
Sigh.
Excepting the playoffs, one of my favorite 2017 memories was him taking high-priced Cardinal lefty Brett Cecil deep in the opening series rubber match to start last season... Unfortunately, the season was somewhat downhill from there for Schwarbs.
Other anecdotes - his ABs vs Miller in the WS. He had the best ABs against him early in the series before Miller wore down.
I tried but couldn't figure it out. I guess I should subscribe to the play index. Honestly I guess we'll see but luckily the Cubs have RHH options in the OF like Almora or the two switch hitters Happ and Zobrist.
Yeah if I'm a Cubs fan I'm a little concerned about Zo. The team is just so damn deep though that I can't see it mattering unless there are significant injuries. I have a hard time constructing a scenario where this team isn't in the playoffs as a division winner.
IIRC, rumored Cubs offer was 3/$42mil.
EDIT: Heyman says 4 yrs, between $50 and $60mil.
First I've seen a 4 year offer from the Cubs mentioned.
Schwarber hit .200/.294/.467 in the second half last year against LHP (in just 34 PAs), and .263/.343/.577 against RHP (175 PAs). (Fangraphs Splits Tool, btw)
It's not those numbers that concern me, which are based on very small samples, split and combined really. The issue in 2017 was directly observable sloppiness at the plate -- it's not surprising that he looked particularly helpless against lefties. A .761/.920 OPS L/R split is not outrageous. In the first half he hit .154/.312/.250 against LHP (64 PAs) and .185/.296/.429 against RHP (213 PAs, .562/725 OPS split).
I think it's impossible to dissect Schwarber's terribleness against LHP from his overall disappointing performance last year; his L/R split did not change, really. He did see proportionally fewer LHP in the second half but not by a huge margin. Obviously the overall results from the second half guy were pretty good, from the first half guy, pretty awful.
He was on the 40 man roster. By my count, it was at 39 before this*, so they now have 2 open spots (one likely for Gimenez, the other for whoever the 25th man ends up being if not Butler).
*Smyly is already on the 60 day DL it looks like.
8 days until Opening Day...
Relevant. I promise I'm not game chattering a ST game that I'm not at and not watching (though Bryant did have his first HR of the spring today, too).
As long as he follows through with his delivery to the plate, sure.
EDIT: But I'm sure they're going to get clarity on it from MLB before trying that in real games.
Contreras, Russell, Bryant, Rizzo, Quintana and Hendricks make the all-star team.
As best I can discern, that's about right.
If Heyward manages to find a way to be not-worthless offensively and Zobrist has even a moderate bounceback? Just stay healthy fellas, I think the runs will come.
I can't find a recent enough copy of the rules to include the 2017 amendment so I'm just going by the amendment as characterized in a couple of articles:
Based on the fact that MLB is letting Capps do his thing so long as his pivot foot stays in contact with the ground I think Darvish is safe. I say it's arguably illegal because Darvish slightly/briefly loses his balance and shifts around his pivot foot before regaining his balance and returning it to rest. I don't think it's a crazy interpretation to label this as a reset.
I personally think Capps move should be illegal, so I think that should too. But if it's not, he definitely needs to use it now and then.
I agree WRT to the issue of resetting his back foot. But Darvish's delivery is also a bit gray in a different way:
EDIT: But this is no different in that respect from what Hideo Nomo used to do with his old delayed pitch.
Watching Darvish regularly is going to take some getting used to... I always get this brief feeling of alarm that something went awry - he pulled something, he lost his balance and is gonna balk in a hilarious way, etc - watching him pitch. It's somewhat unsettling.
Bourjos was cut yesterday, and they just said Caratini won backup C spot. I'm pleasantly surprised. No word on last roster spot, but will be a pitcher.
I'll go with 97 wins this year. Bullpen certainly still scares the crap out of me -- I hope our data nerds know something I don't ... well, something useful about finding good relievers, I'm sure they know lots of stuff I don't.
Now having correctly predicted a rain-out in 2016 and not remembering what weird thing I predicted last year (must not have come true) I will fearlessly predict that this year Schwarber has more steals than Bryant.
19 against the Pirates at least...
An important factor is health. While it's unpredictable, there isn't much blood in the water as ST comes to a close. The rotation looks sound and clearly the offense is tuned up. If the starters can bounce back from 2017 velocity-wise -- the Spring numbers certainly look good in terms of Ks: watch out.
On the other hand, I think the Division opposition is a little stronger. The Cardinals should be better, and while I am not a believer in the Brewers this season, they should be respectable, and I think the Pirates and Reds may both be non-terrible. The AL Central interleague opponents probably work slightly to the Cubs' advantage.
I'm not going out on a limb saying the Cubs are favorites to win the Division, although I will not be surprised if the Cardinals make it interesting.
I'm happy to report that I've played through the middle of June and all systems are go (well, sort of)... Sprinted out to an early 17-3 spread to start the season and haven't really looked back - sitting at 47-20 in the middle of June. The rotation has been lights out - only Kyle Hendricks (6-4; 4.02) has been mildly disappointing, but he's had a nice June thus far. Lester (8-2, 2.95) and Quintana (7-5, 2.84) will be both be all-stars, with Darvish (6-1, 3.24, 2nd in the NL in Ks) and Chatwood (7-3; 3.39) deserving some consideration too.
The bullpen has had its issues; as expected. Morrow has been a bit of a disaster - hurt twice, only made it into 9 games and has frankly... sucked. However, Justin Wilson has been lights out (14 sv, 2.08). I shed the Strop and Cishek salaries to free up some dollars for going draft overslot, but both were... not good, either, before jettisoning them. Fortunately, Edwards has been dominant (15.3K per 9, 1.07 ERA) as has Dillon Maples (too many walks, but 14.1 K per 9). Duensing has been fine as the LOOGY and I've been leaning on a couple minor deals to firm up the rest of the pen.
On the lineup side - Bryant and Rizzo have been Bryzzo; Bryant leads the NL in WAR. Zobrist has bounced back in a big way (322/376/441), as has Russell (268/348/454). Baez had a bad April, but has been better since the middle of May. Schwarbs busted out of the gate - was leading the NL in HRs through May, but has slumped a bit since June started. Happ has been outstanding as the super utility guy - I've been basically playing him all over and he's on track for ~500 PAs (287/338/507). Contreras also got off to a slow start, but has started to come around, just like last year. Almora was another fast starter, but he's fading, too.
The Heyward report: Gone! He gone! Thanks to a decent April - 5 HRs! - this edition, I managed to foist him off onto the Red Sox... had to take Hanley Rameriz in exchange, but Hanley's deal is up after this year... Mr. Rameriz is not exactly pleased being a PH though.
The rest of the NL looks to be playing out as you might expect, depending on what you think of the Mets. The Dodgers are running away with the NLW - nobody else is over .500. The Brewers continue to be plucky - they're leading the WC race, with the Mets close behind them. The Cardinals have had a lot of injury problems and are fading into irrelevance. The Pirates, Braves, Reds, and Marlins are as dreadful as you'd expect. The Nats are getting pushed by the Mets a bit.
All in all, if IRL 2018 Cubs look like this inaugural ootp19 run by the middle of June, expect to be pleased with how things stand.
Yeah, that sounds like a good summary of "best-case scenario within reasonable limits of probability." Except maybe for the Heyward part, in its entirety.
Also: the 2016 Cubs were 47-20 on June 19th, after sweeping the Pirates at Wrigley. After that, they went on a 5-15 stretch, coughing up six games in the standings, before resuming regular programming.
The Cubs are good enough that they really shouldn't have to lean on cleaning house against weaker teams -- but still, the Cubs ought to start fast and beat up on some bad teams early.
FWIW - I just advanced to the ASG - and the Cubs placed 11 (!) players on the NL squad (I don't influence the vote, I just let the engine handle the selections): Darvish, Lester, Quintana, Edwards (!), Wilson(!!!), Contreras, Rizzo, Zobrist (!!), Bryant, Russell, and Schwarber... 65-30 at the break.
Edwards has probably been the best reliever in all of baseball - to the extent that I think the initial roster sets are perhaps a bit too kind to him... 48 IP, just 17 hits, 4 ERs, 0 HRs, 23 BBs and 79Ks.
Moses 96
Kiko 102
Man o'Schwar 100
Zonk 100
Dag Nabbit 97
McCoy 94
Trout! 95
TomH 92
Pops 96
Spahn 96
Voodoo 101
Meatwad 105
Walt 97
Andere 96
That's an average of 97.6 wins -- seems like we're a bunch of Fanboys -- will TomH's prediction of 92 win it again?
Less biased sources:
Fangraphs: 94
Bleacher Report: 93
PECOTA: 91
Fivethirtyeight: 95
ZiPS: ??? (paywall)
Has any division ever had two 100 loss teams? I could see the Pirates and Reds both getting there.
If I'm reading this right, ZIPS projects 94 wins.
---
I honestly think the Pirates have a better chance at the WC than losing 100.
As for the Reds, I suppose that maybe it's impossible for the pitching to be as awful as it was last year... but on the flipside, color me not a believer in an awful lot of the Reds lineup suddenly going nuts with the HRs without improving some of those dreadful BB/K rates.
I also think one of AZ or COL will clearly be better than both MIL and STL - I'm still not at all high on what the Cards are doing, and MIL's rotation has a non-zero chance to be bad.
*Chris Volstad started for the White Sox and was good - only a few regulars played for Milwaukee's lineup though.
Happ CF
Bryant 3b
Rizzo 1b
Contreras C
Schwarber LF
Russell SS
Heyward RF
Baez 2b
Lester P
FWIW, while I varied it quite a lot depending on who's hot and who's not - the OOTP default I used was
Happ/Amora
Zobrist
Rizzo
Bryant
Schwarber
Contreras
Russell
Pitcher (I still like this for some reason)
Heyward
I just cannot break that mental block of preferring Rizzo/Bryant/Schwarbs in the 3-4-5 spots.
I still haven't entirely given up on Heyward. His swing has been a gigantic mess but I don't believe his talent has evaporated already.
I know lineup order irrelevance has been beaten to death on BBTF, if anything - one should just put your hitters in order of bestness to max PAs, and the Cubs lineup is so (beyond Heyward) stacked you almost can't go wrong with it... but i still cannot get used to Kris Bryant in the 2nd spot.
So why is Bryant 4th in yours?
Pure traditionalist impulse -- that the cleanup spot should be occupied by your biggest bopper. I also harbored long-standing dreams of that neat little Rizzo (L), Bryant (R), Schwarber (L) going 3-4-5.
I fully admit it's probably not the most optimal lineup.... though I'll reiterate again - it's just the default. I manage more than half the games and I tinker a ton - one other neat thing that OOTP19 introduced is individual batter vs pitcher tracking, so I also do a lot of silly SSS matchup ordering. IRL - I'd probably get beaten to death on BBTF for having Bob Boone disease: the need to continually make changes for the sake of making changes.
So put me in the Pops camp of "still haven't given up on entirely."
Boy, IDK... Slugging .400 would be a monumental achievement for Heyward now, seems to me. I guess he did go from a pathetic .325 SLG in 2016 to .389 last year.
Heh... along those same lines, Juan Cruz would be 36 if he weren't actually 39 and Big Z would also be 36 if he hadn't died setting off that thermonuclear device in that gardening accident fit of rage.
Asking for someone I know, is it possible to die of from too many weak groundouts to 2b?
How about by the all star break? I'll have to be in Chicago this year but I'm not waiting until October or November to do so.
Coming right up!
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