I haven't paid attention as closely to the off-season moves and ST numbers, but that's a pretty uncharacteristically pessimistic projected record, Moses. I don't expect them to win the division, but considering how poorly key components of the team performed last year, I wouldn't expect a huge slide from last year's record.

10 of those wins for Zambrano will come for his new team after he's traded in late July. he will win 10 in 14 start for the new team and pitch said team into the playoffs and the world series title. winning the WS MVP by leading the team in wins AND HR (hit) in the series.

Right now, the roster appears to be:

C: Soto, Hill
1B: Lee
MI: Theriot, Baker, Fontenot
3B: Ramirez
OF: Fukudome, Byrd, Soriano, Nady, Colvin
SP: Z, Dempster, Wells, Gorzelany, Silva (and Lilly May-ish)
RP: Marmol, Caridad, Marshall, Berg, Russell, Grabow, Samardizja.

The last spot will be one of Millar, Tracy, Hoffpauir, or Fuld.

I think it comes down to the fact that I'm really only optimistic about Lee, Ramirez (when healthy), Fontenot, Zambrano, Dempster and Caridad. I don't expect much else out of anyone else. Now, that doesn't mean I expect everyone else to suck, but I expect fewer league average type performances out of them. I think we've been spoiled with the pitching we've had over the year, and I expect it to explode big time this year. That, plus a below average offense, and next thing you know you're 20 games under.

I'm certainly looking forward to the start of the season. I have no idea what to think about this team. I have a feeling its going to be another year of 84 wins and being angry at watching Suckiano swing at low outside breaking balls.

I stand by #25, that I will watch a sweep at Wrigely on my wedding anniversary by the Cardinals and the rest of the season will be moot.

I am fairly optimistic. I think the outfield of Fonzie/Byrd/Fukudome/Nady/Colvin will be fairly productive. It will boil down to pitching. With Guzman done for the year, the Cubs could use another set-up man.

Marlon Byrd will be booed at Wrigley by April 31st.

April 31, huh? :-)

So Nady's on the opening day roster, even though he's apparently not able to throw at all? Is the plan to have him pinch hit exclusively until June or whenever?

Final prediction 72-90.

I think it's safe to say you've officially lost the resident optimist's title.

April 31, huh? :-)

Yeah, I saw that during a proofread, but thought it fit the gist of the thing so I left it in.

So Nady's on the opening day roster, even though he's apparently not able to throw at all? Is the plan to have him pinch hit exclusively until June or whenever?

I don't understand this either. In another thread, Walt brought up the lack of back IF and the problems it caused last year. I guess that would mean Tracy might have the inside track to make the team (not that he can play SS, but he can play 2b or 3b better than Millar and Fuld).

I think it's safe to say you've officially lost the resident optimist's title.

Maybe that'll look optimistic by season's end...

I officially resigned sometime during August last year. I forget the exact circumstances, but I caused a scene on my way out.

8. Gern Blanston Posted: March 29, 2010 at 12:43 PM (#3488009)

This is my favorite handle in a while. Nicely done.

Yeah, I saw that during a proofread, but thought it fit the gist of the thing so I left it in.

As a prediction, it would've been even better if you'd said he'll be booed ON April 31.

This is my favorite handle in a while. Nicely done.

Thanks. That's quite a compliment, coming from The Joe Mauer Power Hour himself!

5. Geovany Soto will outslug his weight. Last year he slugged .381 and weighed 385.

I know his weight loss has been well documented, but wow. I didn't realize he was a contestant on the Biggest Loser over the offseason.

Maybe that'll look optimistic by season's end...

That's the spirit.

I didn't realize he was a contestant on the Biggest Loser over the offseason.

That's Silva. And I'm not talking weight.

I don't understand this either. In another thread, Walt brought up the lack of back IF and the problems it caused last year.

When you're trying to avoid a repeat of that scenario, there's only one thing to do: Trade Andres Blanco.

Re. Nady: I've never had TJ surgery, but I've thrown a ball and swung a bat. Obviously they're different motions, but if your elbow's so fragile you can't throw a ball back to the infield, is it really a good idea to put as much force on your elbow as swinging a bat requires?

When you're trying to avoid a repeat of that scenario, there's only one thing to do: Trade Andres Blanco.

I must admit that going into the season with one player capable of playing shortstop (and him not very well) is pretty bold.

I must admit that going into the season with one player capable of playing shortstop (and him not very well) is pretty bold.

They think Mike Fontenot can back up SS acceptably, which I think is ... ill advised.

Fontenot did spend a decent amount of time at SS this spring supposedly. I don't like it, but I'll take Lou and Alan's word for it at this point.

Basically, Blanco wasn't going to make the team and didn't have any options. If he could hit at all, I'm sure he would have stuck around. I didn't realize he'd been in the minors so long. So looking at the big picture, I'm not going to put too much weight on this move.

They think Mike Fontenot can back up SS acceptably, which I think is ... ill advised.

Agreed. Then again, he can't be much worse than Aaron Miles.

Then again, he can't be much worse than Aaron Miles.

FACT: It is impossible for anyone to be worse at anything than Aaron Miles.

#26 meatwads cub heavy fantasy baseball team will finish last

MESA, Ariz. -- Ted Lilly is on track to return to the Cubs as early as April 19 in New York.

Manager Lou Piniella said Lilly will throw three innings Tuesday in minor-league camp and make one more start Sunday before heading to a "warm" weather site for his rehab stint. From there he'll make two more starts, getting up to 90 pitches.

Piniella wouldn't give a date for Lilly's return, but the schedule points to the start of the road trip at Citi Field.

Piniella also named Carlos Silva as the No. 4 starter, and Tom Gorzelanny as the No. 5 starter. That schedule would have Silva following Lilly in the rotation on April 20 in New York, if he performs well enough to keep his spot in the rotation.

Lilly's motivated. He doesn't want to get Wally Pipped by Carlos Silva.

Yeah, I don't care about losing Blanco. It seems pretty clear that if the Cubs need another IF because of an injury, they'll call up Castro anyway.

As a non-Chicago born White Sox fan, I don't have much more than a passing interest in the Cubs. Still, for shits and grins I thought I'd check out this thread. Boy am I glad I did.

Quite a lot of humor here. Job well done (and special kudos to post #22).

Still, for shits and grins I thought I'd check out this thread. Boy am I glad I did.

I suspect any non-Cub fan will find a wealth of black humor in our threads as the season progresses.

hell for a good time just read the season predictions starting from 04 on, quite funny

SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. -- D-Day arrived at Cubs camp, with manager Lou Piniella and general manager Jim Hendry ultimately choosing Chad Tracy to fill out the final roster spot Tuesday.

Kevin Millar, Micah Hoffpauir and Sam Fuld were the other candidates to be the last guy on the bench, but Tracy's left-handed bat and ability to play third base were decisive factors.

"It was tough," Hendry said. "There was no doubt the guys who made it earned it. Kevin is a high-character guy. We all know that. We have a lot high-character guys in that clubhouse. He knew early on it was a long shot. "

Here's a profile of the one guy in the pen that none of us know anything about:

The Cubs made their bullpen cuts last weekend, but Russell was on hold as they looked into dealing for a veteran reliever. General manager Jim Hendry decided Russell was better suited for the role than anyone he could acquire and called off the search.

3. Esmailin Caridad will be the closer on July 1st.

Sure, why not; I took a late round flyer on Caridad in three different DMB leagues this season so send him out there and see what he can do. The Cubs will be out of the race by then anyway.

8. The first column criticizing the Cubs for lack of Reed Johnson-ness will be on June 1st.

Long before then, I would guess May 1st at the latest.

12. The first column demanding that the Cubs trade Carlos Zambrano will be on June 15th.

Again, late on the date; my guess is that the Cub "faithfull" will be calling for Big Z's trade by the middle of May at the latest.

8. The first column criticizing the Cubs for lack of Reed Johnson-ness will be on June 1st.

Long before then, I would guess May 1st at the latest.

If you want to be technical about it, I'm sure it already happened when they didn't resign him. But yeah, I agree looking back on it. I was thinking it would coincide with everyone realizes how much Colvin sucks.

12. The first column demanding that the Cubs trade Carlos Zambrano will be on June 15th.

Again, late on the date; my guess is that the Cub "faithfull" will be calling for Big Z's trade by the middle of May at the latest.

Well, since I'm predicting he'll have a really good season, I thought he'd get off to a good start so it would take some time for the vultures to start circling. I figured right around then it would be painfully obvious that they're not winning the division and so Z will be blamed for not doing enough. I kinda like #2's addendum to that prediction.

David Haugh, please go back to football and leave the baseball for pros like....uh....Paul Sullivan?

Indeed it takes restraint not to get carried away pumping up perhaps the Cubs' best home-grown outfielder since Rafael Palmeiro. And I'm afraid I didn't show much during part of a conversation Wednesday with Cubs GM Jim Hendry.

I asked Hendry why an organization that must care as much about the future as it does the present wouldn't begin a season defined by newness by starting Colvin in right field and fellow hot-shot prospect Starlin Castro at shortstop. That way, current shortstop Ryan Theriot could take over at second base and overpaid right fielder Kosuke Fukudome could take a seat in the dugout.

and

They are nice problems to ponder for the Cubs after a spring training free of drama or controversy; how quickly to bring along young players who look Felix Pie-proof. Colvin, 24, created the most unexpected development thanks to a smooth left-handed hitting stroke and an extra 25 pounds of muscle he will need to carry around the mounting burden of being Wrigleyville's Next Great Hope. Just wait until the "Ty Required'' signs start popping up in the right-field bleachers.

If Colvin excels in the "three games a week,'' Hendry projected, pressure will build for the Cubs to make their right fielder of the future the No. 2 hitter of the present.

WTF?!?!

Lastly:

They can't afford a rookie-laden bullpen to burn the bridge between quality starts and Marmol either, so I mention Jeff Samardzija — a young veteran who could be the key to late-inning relief as he was in 2008. Finally, I tell Hendry, Samardzija fits on the staff where his football mentality best suits him and he can attack hitters rather than pace himself for 100 pitches as a starter.

"He's a 25-year-old guy with a 22-year-old arm,'' Hendry said. "He wasn't overtaxed pitching throughout high school or college because of football and he has got the intangibles to grow into either role.''

But isn't this the role that could most enhance Samardzija's career and the Cubs' playoff hopes?

"This is the big leagues and labeling people in certain roles is way overrated,'' Hendry said. "The kid's going to be a good major league pitcher and we're not worried what role he's in right now. As Jim Leyland used to say, rolls are for dinner.''

If Samardzija helps the Cubs bullpen hold up, those predicting doom this season may have to eat their words.

I'm sorry, David, but Colvin and Samardzija are fungible. If they are important pieces in this Cubs team, we're looking at 100 losses.

Indeed it takes restraint not to get carried away pumping up perhaps the Cubs' best home-grown outfielder since Rafael Palmeiro.

Being the "Cubs' best home-grown outfielder since Rafael Palmeiro" is kind of like, well, like something not very impressive.

Let's see--Kieschnick, Glanville, Patterson...an illustrious bunch.

EDIT: I guess Dwight Smith and Jerome Walton followed Palmeiro to the majors as well. That they make the short list kind of furthers my point.

Sam Fuld!11!!1!

Yeah, I thought about mentioning him, too--and sadly, it wouldn't have been completely tongue in cheek.

Hey, Brant Brown at least brought us Jon Lieber...

#34: with rick morrissey taking his hydration services over to the sun-times, david haugh has stepped up and assumed captain dumbass/meathead status for the tribune. i could swear he recently wrote a column about how jon scheyer of duke has had a better "experience" than one of those ONE YEAR CUT AND RUNNER BASTARDS like derrick rose, nevermind that these great celebrated 4 year collegiate basketball players are only there because they wouldn't be drafted in the NBA.

one of my recent favorite haugh upchuckings was when he decided to fellate mike brey and luke harangody before the tournament which provided us with this gem

Anybody else in the field of 65 have a sixth man with 1,823 career points?

nope. and nobody else in the field of 65 had a sixth man with 1,827 career points after their first round exit at the hands of basketball powerhouse old dominion. when harangody made that buzzer-beating shot and looked around quizzically only to realize notre dame still lost ~60-59, that was a perfect end to his career.

BONUS PREDICTION: Tyler Colvin will never be as good as Corey Patterson was with the Cubs.
SUPER BONUS PREDICTION: Tyler Colvin will never be as good as Felix Pie was with the Cubs.

Damn, Moses, I thought I was pessimistic about this season. You make me want to put a gun in my mouth. I am encouraged that Millar did not make the club. You want a friend in the clubhouse, get a dog.

I don't get all the pessimism. This team doesn't look all that different to me than the team from 2007, for instance. It might be better, even.

I think the Cards are the front runners, but I don't really see the Cubs being that far behind, honestly.

Now, could this team be terrible? Sure, if a lot of things break the wrong way. Could the team be great? Probably not, but I wouldn't be stunned to see them knock out 90 wins if everything breaks right, either.

I'm cautiously optimistic.

This team doesn't look all that different to me than the team from 2007, for instance. It might be better, even.

I agree it's not much different. But I don't think that team was that good, and now they're 3 years older.

Damn, Moses, I thought I was pessimistic about this season. You make me want to put a gun in my mouth.

I don't know why I'm extra un-optimistic (I wouldn't really say I'm pessimistic). I don't see a team that's improved over last year, and the previous year, and the previous year. And as mentioned above, they're now at their oldest. So that's 85, 97, and 83 wins for this bunch. And I think they may have the least amount of talent and most amount of questions/injury concerns of the 4. I can't in good conscience predict them to win more games than any of those teams.

I am encouraged that Millar did not make the club. You want a friend in the clubhouse, get a dog.

Hooray for silver linings!

So that's 85, 97, and 83 wins for this bunch. And I think they may have the least amount of talent and most amount of questions/injury concerns of the 4. I can't in good conscience predict them to win more games than any of those teams.

But it's a pretty big drop off from saying this to predicting 70 wins, isn't it?

I know a lot of the original post was in jest, so I'm not sure if that's your actual prediction.

I have a really hard time picturing any scenario in which this team approaches the badness of the 2006 team.

Sure. Let's say 78 wins then.

I don't think a lot of the things that went right last year will go right again, but most of the things that went wrong will happen again. IOW, Lee won't be as good, but Soriano and Soto will still suck (maybe not as much, but not enough to make up for Lee's decline). Ramirez will be good again, but only healthy for 3/4 of the season. Wells won't be as good. Lilly won't be as good - this actually seems likely with him starting the year behind everyone else. Marmol as closer won't be as bad as Gregg, but the rest of the bullpen won't be as good as last year (Caridad/Grabow won't be as good as Marmol/Guzman). Byrd's offense might not be as good as Bradley's last year. Fukudome will likely be worse. The 5th starter will be worse than Harden was last year. Theriot won't be as good as last year. Z should be about the same, but will get more wins. The bench still isn't a strength, but no one will approach Fox's production from last year (Nady might come close, but he's limited to PH appearances only for so long that counting-wise he won't catch Fox). There had to be a positive surprise somewhere in there, but outside of Castro coming up and starting hot, I'm not sure what it could be. I think that about covers everything...

If all that bad happens - and I don't think I'm really stretching on any of them - and none of the positive, they could definitely approach 2006. But I also think the division is better than that year so that's a couple of extra wins gone.

You're that down on Soto? I can get behind thinking Soriano will continue to suck, but Soto had an epically unlucky season at the plate last year.

You're right that the talent level of the team isn't quite as good as last year's, but at least they shouldn't be as frustrating to watch. 2009 was a perfect storm of injuries, bad luck, and general underperformance. I think it says a lot that last year's team still posted a winning record despite all the things that went wrong.

Wanna make it interesting, Moses? Reworded slightly are your predictions from 44. I'm willing to bet that you're wrong on more than half of them (and I'm basically spotting you one because I agree with the Harden/5th Starter one).

1.) Cubs will win 78 (or fewer) games.
2.) Lee will be worse than he was in 2009.
3.) Soriano will be as bad (or worse) as he was in 2009.
4.) Soto will be as bad (or worse) as he was in 2009.
5.) Ramirez will not play in more than 122 games.
6.) Wells will be worse than he was in 2009.
7.) Lilly will be worse than he was in 2009.
8.) Marmol will be better than Gregg was in 2009.
9.) Caridad/Grabow will be worse than Marmol/Guzman (I actually think this should be something like "top 2 non-closer relievers", but I'm fine with this).
10.) Byrd will be worse than Bradley was in 2009.
11.) Fukudome will be worse than he was in 2009.
12.) 5th Starter (should we just say Silva/Silva's replacement(s)?) will be worse than Harden was in 2009.
13.) Theriot will be worse than he was in 2009.
14.) Z will be the same (or worse) than he was in 2009.

I can't think of how to properly define the bench prediction, but you can give it a shot, if you'd like.

Loser eats a hat made of angelfood cake?

I'm not saying Soriano and Soto will be worse than last year, just that they'll both still suck. Would below career average work for you (or is that too slanted in my direction)? If they're worse than last year, the Cubs aren't winning 70. Also, I'm saying Z will be the same or better (more wins meaning more innings).

I'm ok on your revision to 9, that's just me predicting they'll be the top 2 non closer relievers.

As for the bench, can we say Nady/Colvin/Baker will be worse than Fox/Hoffpauir/Baker? IOW, the top 3 bench appearances (if original prediction #7 is right, the Hoff may have more PAs than Colvin by the end of the year)? Hill actually had more PAs than anyone on the bench last year (retroactive yikes, BTW), and Baker ended the year as the starter but Fontenot is kinda the starter both years. I forgot how much Reed was hurt last year, was surprised to see him 5th in the PA list off the bench (just beating out Miles). We can make it top 5, if you want.

Eat a whole cake? At least I wouldn't have to wear it. I would classify myself as fairly confident in predictions 2, 6, 7, 8, 9, 11, and 12. I'm so-so on 1, 4, 5, 10, 13, and 14. I really don't know what to think about Soriano - I'm afraid of the worst but kinda hoping/expecting for a nice bounce back.

Alfonso Soriano’s OPS+ will be higher than the number of games he’ll play.

That strikes me as pretty unlikely actually. Did you mean that the other way around? It happens if he recovers fairly well as a hitter (min 100 OPS+ up to about league average) but misses half the season. That's obviously possible but the game threshold probably can't be higher than 120 to virtually guarantee his games beats his OPS+. Even if he's as bad as last year, it's hard to see the Cubs not giving him enough games -- given what they owe him, they don't have much choice but to play him if healthy in hopes that he'll recover some value.

I wish I could say you're wrong on a lot of this but, while I'm more optimistic than you (the pitching is pretty good), the potential for disaster is clearly here.

Yeah, I don't care about losing Blanco. It seems pretty clear that if the Cubs need another IF because of an injury, they'll call up Castro anyway.

In isolation, Blanco's not a big loss but it's about day-to-day flexibility not injury replacement. ARam needs regular time off while Baker and Fontenot are in a platoon. There are just too many days when two guys are banged up. If Tracy could still play 3B and Fontenot/Baker could really play SS, this would be workable. But those are pretty unlikely.

It's better than the beginning of last year given Baker is a lot better than Miles and Tracy will at least stand near 3B for us. But it's hard for me to think that the awesome bats of Colvin and Tracy or the un-fielding Nady could be worth the loss of positional flexibility.

But I, for one, welcome our new RF overlord, Tyler Colvin.

(Really ... if we're going to pretend Colvin is a real prospect, can we at least keep him in our imaginary CF? Can he just be our best CF since Rick Monday? Hmmm... b-r has gone wonky and it lists no starting Cub CF between Monday and Brian McRae ... actually that sounds about right. :-)

So Jerry Morales, Greg Gross, Jerry Martin, Gary Woods, and Mel Hall were all just a dream?

How many starts will Silva make before demotion/DFA?

I'll guess 11.

1. Doesn't look too good right now
2. Nope, missed it by one save
3. Nope
4. Nope
5. Unless he finds a cache of ring dings it looks like a yep.
6. Doesn't look like it
7. Yes and no
8. Haven't seen it yet
9. Nope
10. Nope
11. Yep
12. Might have happened earlier but generally correct
13. Only if he vultures them at this point
14. Doable
15. Nope Gorzellany opened up the season at the 5th spot and Silva was in the 4th spot. When Lilly came up and Zambrano was starting Silva was in the 5th spot or Lilly or Zambrano if you want to look at it that way but anyway you want to look at it they've already got the wins out of that spot.
16. Nope and nope
17. Yep
18. Hasn't happened yet
19. Nope, he it at one right now
20. Not yet but still doable
21. Still time for it to happen
22. Not yet time
23. Ditto
24. Ditto
25. I put them at that point by the end of May but I won't argue if someone says the end of June.

13. Carlos Zambrano will win 20 games this year. for the rest of his MLB career

fixed