BBTF's Gonfalon Cubs Discussion :: 7.42% - So you’re saying there’s a chance?

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1. TomH Posted: August 25, 2009 at 03:33 PM (#3304443)

Hmm. 7.42% chance of making the playoffs. Assuming a simple 1 in 8 possibility of winning the trophy if they get there, that makes it slightly under 1 in 100 to be the champs; almost precisely the # of years they've gone without the big prize. Quaint.

2. VoodooR Posted: August 25, 2009 at 03:46 PM (#3304454)

Realistically, the only way the Cubs catch the Cardinals is if the Cubs get hot and the Cardinals fall back considerably. If it is going to take 94 wins, the Cubs probably have less than 1% chance, but if the Cardinals slump and the 88 wins take the division, the Cubs still have a shot.

3. retro-shiite Posted: August 25, 2009 at 04:03 PM (#3304473)

If the Cards play .500 from here on out (and I think it's a reach to think they'll do that poorly), they get to 90 wins. The Cubs would have to go 28-12 to tie.

I'm not holding my breath.

4. SouthSideRyan Posted: August 25, 2009 at 04:05 PM (#3304477)

I don't think the worst case for the Cards is 500. Odds are they'll go better than 500 down the stretch, but I wouldn't be stunned to see them go 4 or 5 under down the stretch.

As you said, any chance of catching the Cards relies on the sweep so that laves 5 games to make up over 37 games remaining. A game per week. 2 games in the standings can be made up by going 4-0 in the extra games we have remaining. That leaves 3 games in the standings to make up over 33 games. It's not impossible.

5. retro-shiite Posted: August 25, 2009 at 04:10 PM (#3304481)

Yeah, I'm not gonna say it's impossible, but I will say I'm done expending any emotional energy in hoping for it. Hey, if they wanna surprise me, great.

On a completely selfish note, I'm curious to see what happens with postseason tickets; since the Cubs are in second place and not literally (even if practically) buried, I'm guessing MLB will authorize them to prepare for postseason play. In that case, I'm on the fence as to whether to fork over the various surcharges along with the price of the tickets. A big part of me says I'll just be pissing away the surcharge.

In any event, I'll be at the park tonight, and the weather's nice (if a bit warm for my liking). Go Cubs. The going won't get any easier than the next 3.

6. SouthSideRyan Posted: August 25, 2009 at 04:14 PM (#3304483)

And back in the real world:

Read a rumor about Ricketts wanting to bring in Sandy Alderson as President, likely leading to a new GM.

Regarding what I want to see barring the miracle finish:

Sorting out the bullpen. I know it'll only be a few innings per guy, but I want that pen overflowing in September. I want Stevens, Caridad, Parker, Gaub, Berg, and Patton eating up innings and seeing if they have anything.

If Soriano still has nagging knee issues I want him DLd for September, if he's healthy, I want him and Bradley getting innings in CF so we don't wind up with another lefty-lefty platoon next season.

I want Jeff Baker playing every day.

I want Mike Fontenot to take the spot starts at SS.

7. retro-shiite Posted: August 25, 2009 at 04:22 PM (#3304488)

Gaub's one of the guys they got for DeRosa, right? I seem to remember reading he's got the best upside of anyone from that deal.

8. There are no words... (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: August 25, 2009 at 04:34 PM (#3304502)

Cry me a river.

9. Moses Taylor lost his pants to a pair of nines Posted: August 25, 2009 at 04:38 PM (#3304509)

As you said, any chance of catching the Cards relies on the sweep so that laves 5 games to make up over 37 games remaining. A game per week. 2 games in the standings can be made up by going 4-0 in the extra games we have remaining. That leaves 3 games in the standings to make up over 33 games. It's not impossible.

Good summary. Much more concise than my post.

Yeah, I'm not gonna say it's impossible, but I will say I'm done expending any emotional energy in hoping for it. Hey, if they wanna surprise me, great.

Exactly how I feel. I still have hope, but I know it's a long shot. And dammit, one of these times that long shot is going to happen for the Cubs, right?

Read a rumor about Ricketts wanting to bring in Sandy Alderson as President, likely leading to a new GM.

That would be very encouraging. I wouldn't be surprised to see a full house cleaning. It's what we wanted after the Dusty/McPhail era, but it never truly happened. Now's the time.

I want Mike Fontenot to take the spot starts at SS.

This is probably the longest shot of anything you'd like to see. Lou seemed pretty convinced he couldn't handle it after Mike's brief cameo. Of course, he thought the same thing with Fox and came around on that one. I'd assume it's more likely Blanco comes back and gets some spot starts.

10. Andere Richtingen

Posted: August 25, 2009 at 04:38 PM (#3304510)

It's going to take a Cardinals slump and a Cubs surge.

And the Cardinals aren't exactly facing a buzzsaw in their schedule. My back of the envelope calculation weighting their remaining schedules by win percentage has the Cubs opponents' winning percentage at .466, and the Cardinals at .482. Both have heavily home-weighted schedules (Cardinals 21H/15R, Cubs 22H/16R).

The going won't get any easier than the next 3.

Except Pittsburgh. I think Pittsburgh is a worse team than the Nationals right now.

11. Moses Taylor lost his pants to a pair of nines Posted: August 25, 2009 at 04:51 PM (#3304526)

Cry me a river.

Uh, what? This is not a complaining or self-pity post. There's no contest, and no winners in a competition of who's worse off.

12. There are no words... (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: August 25, 2009 at 04:58 PM (#3304535)

Sorry. Just venting in a new venue. I'll go away now.

13. Bunny Vincennes Posted: August 25, 2009 at 05:05 PM (#3304543)

To put this in perspective slightly, the Cubs best "closeing" month of September happened in 1935. They went 23-6, an .885 clip in which they scored 156 runs while giving up 66, to catch and beat St. Louis by four games who went 19-12 down the stretch.

This is trivial of course, but I'm throwing it out there.

14. Der_K is feeling better now. Posted: August 25, 2009 at 05:18 PM (#3304561)

That yellow pages ad is (tree falling down version) is unintentionally amusing.

15. retro-shiite Posted: August 25, 2009 at 05:19 PM (#3304562)

16. Moses Taylor lost his pants to a pair of nines Posted: August 25, 2009 at 05:24 PM (#3304569)

This is trivial of course, but I'm throwing it out there.

What you're saying is they're due?

17. SouthSideRyan Posted: August 25, 2009 at 05:29 PM (#3304573)

Yes, Gaub was one of the 3 that came for DeRosa(along with Stevens and Chris Archer, 20 year old starter in A ball having a nice year)

Gaub's problems are the same as Stevens which are the same as Archer which seem to be the same of all our prospects/pen guys. Walks.

Archer and Gaub have improved their BB rate quite a bit this year, Stevens has gotten worse. All 3 have improved their prospect status though such that they're clearly worth more than the draft picks DeRosa would return.

Coming into the season, I believe Gaub had the best potential, but Archer finally turned his stuff into results and has passed him IMO.(Which is impressive considering Gaub's put up a sub-2 ERA over AA-AAA this season.) Then again I'm a sucker for young guys who strike out a bunch of people.

18. retro-shiite Posted: August 25, 2009 at 05:31 PM (#3304577)

Just did a little quick math--the Cubs 23-6 month in 1935 actually fell 2 games short of their pythag (.848, or 25 wins). Nuts.

19. retro-shiite Posted: August 25, 2009 at 05:34 PM (#3304581)

Well, that's encouraging--if they end up getting one pretty good major league pitcher out of the DeRosa deal, it's a win.

20. Bunny Vincennes Posted: August 25, 2009 at 06:52 PM (#3304723)

A 90-run differential in a single month. That's just frickin' insane. They outscored their opposition by over 3 runs a game on average, *including* their losses.

I think it's safe to say that was a fun month to watch.

It is insane. It must have been like watching some sort of baseball scorched earth policy. Jesus christo! Interestingly, the Cubs loved the 8th inning that season. They scored way more runs in the 8th vs. other inning, and almost the exact same number of runs at home vs. on the road 426 at Wrigley, 421 elsewhere.

21. Moses Taylor lost his pants to a pair of nines Posted: August 25, 2009 at 07:12 PM (#3304752)

Johan Santana is done for the year, that's possibly 2 more winnable games now against the Mets.

22. Harveys Wallbangers

Posted: August 25, 2009 at 07:18 PM (#3304761)

Pittsburgh is getting good work from the kids. I think they have improved themselves.

23. SoSH U at work Posted: August 25, 2009 at 07:49 PM (#3304807)

Except Pittsburgh. I think Pittsburgh is a worse team than the Nationals right now.

But are the Pirates worse than the Mets?

24. Moses Taylor lost his pants to a pair of nines Posted: August 25, 2009 at 07:57 PM (#3304820)

Pittsburgh is getting good work from the kids. I think they have improved themselves.

Not to get cocky (far from it), but it hasn't helped them against the Cubs. They're the one team the Cubs have beaten consistently, both this season (and during this rough patch) and at least since they stole Aramis Ramirez from them.

25. Andere Richtingen

Posted: August 25, 2009 at 08:53 PM (#3304874)

Pittsburgh is getting good work from the kids. I think they have improved themselves.

Long term, yes, but you know damn well they'll trade the next generation of budding stars. I think they're annual fire sale is criminal, even if the Cubs benefit from it.

But are the Pirates worse than the Mets?

IMO, probably.

26. SUBJ is growing his playoff beard Posted: August 25, 2009 at 10:58 PM (#3304984)

Mariotti: "Boycott, Cubs fans".

No.

27. SUBJ is growing his playoff beard Posted: August 25, 2009 at 11:12 PM (#3304994)

On this date in baseball history, the 2007 New York Mets (73-55), led the second place Philadelphia Phillies (66-62) and Atlanta Braves (67-63) by 7 games in the NL East.

Also on this date in 2007, the Colorado Rockies (66-63) sat 4 1/2 games behind the wild-card leading San Diego Padres (70-58), and were trailing 3 teams (San Diego, Philadelphia, Atlanta) and tied with another (Los Angeles) in that race.

For final results, please see the 2007 National League Division Series.

EDIT: I am bad at HTML. And life.

28. McCoy Posted: August 25, 2009 at 11:33 PM (#3305021)

Mariotti: "Boycott, Cubs fans".

Cub's fans boycott Mariotti.

29. Misirlou's got a busy day, he's wearing a vest Posted: August 26, 2009 at 01:44 AM (#3305176)

Down 9-1 to the Nats. God this team's pathetic!

30. Moses Taylor lost his pants to a pair of nines Posted: August 26, 2009 at 01:50 AM (#3305187)

No ####. Way to come out with a sense of purpose in a must win game against a shitty team. Ugh.

31. Misirlou's got a busy day, he's wearing a vest Posted: August 26, 2009 at 01:53 AM (#3305196)

4 hits all night against some hump named Garrett Mock.

32. puck Posted: August 26, 2009 at 02:23 AM (#3305215)

Mock has been pitching well lately, fwiw.

33. SUBJ is growing his playoff beard Posted: August 26, 2009 at 02:43 AM (#3305226)

Post #27 assumed that the team wasn't going to come out and #### the bed against, er, "a team with potential for future seasons". Please disregard post #27.

34. jwb Posted: August 26, 2009 at 03:05 AM (#3305241)

Well, that's another in the loss column. This is the time of the season where watching the playoff odds on a daily basis can be like watching the Terminator's red eyes fade to black.

35. cardsfanboy

Posted: August 26, 2009 at 04:20 AM (#3305286)

Umm, as a Cardinal fan I'm loving it.

36. Dan The Mediocre Posted: August 26, 2009 at 04:22 AM (#3305287)

Umm, as a Cardinal fan I'm loving it.

I'd get mad at your shadenfreude if the Cubs didn't suck so much.

37. greenback

Posted: August 26, 2009 at 04:24 AM (#3305289)

cfb, you're supposed to logon to the group's Harris account to post stuff like that.

38. Sleepy supports unauthorized rambling Posted: August 26, 2009 at 04:31 AM (#3305292)

For final results, please see the 2007 National League Division Series.

I liked the other one better.

Seriously, though, as a Cardinals fan, I'm really sad this hasn't turned into a pennant race for the ages. I really thought this year would be a pinnacle year for cards-cubs rivalry, and it's turned into 2008 in reverse (so far).

39. cardsfanboy

Posted: August 26, 2009 at 04:31 AM (#3305293)

who is harris? but I stand by my point. I had the Cubs as the most talented nl team(along with the mets) coming into this season, my definition of weakness was that they had Pinella as manager(who contrary to facts has never impressed me) this is a guy who once again as cubbiedom has shown will not be able to lead them to the promised land. The Cubs are too talented not to be a threat.... but since they have sucked so far I'm loving it. Talent wise going into the season I think the Cardinals were a close third (behind Cubs and Brewers) but thought that their professionalism will exceed expectations and having the better ownership group will help them.

40. jwb Posted: August 26, 2009 at 12:30 PM (#3305383)

4.20%. . .

41. SouthSideRyan Posted: August 26, 2009 at 03:01 PM (#3305549)

How does this affect Chris Duncan CFB?

Thought their professionalism would exceed expectations? What a crock of ####.

42. retro-shiite Posted: August 26, 2009 at 03:05 PM (#3305555)

Since the trade, Duncan's no longer as good as Carlos Beltran.

All that said, I think it's safe to say this Cub team's not a contender in any way, shape or form. Last night's game was like Game 2 of last year's LDS, only against the Nationals. A colossal bedshitting.

43. AWAChampion Posted: August 28, 2009 at 07:39 PM (#3307921)

If LaRussa was managing the Cubs and Piniella was in charge of the Cards we know who would be in first...

44. Dag Nabbit apealing [sic] his own check swing Posted: August 28, 2009 at 07:42 PM (#3307931)

Seriously, though, as a Cardinals fan, I'm really sad this hasn't turned into a pennant race for the ages. I really thought this year would be a pinnacle year for cards-cubs rivalry, and it's turned into 2008 in reverse (so far).

Yeah, I even researched the Top Ten Cub-Cardinal games of all-time in hopes it would make a nice article on Monday, 9/14 (there's a series later that week pitting the hottest team in baseball versus the flaming ball of poo). Now it'll have to go up in the off-season and I gotta think of something else for 9/14.

45. SUBJ is growing his playoff beard Posted: August 28, 2009 at 09:13 PM (#3308052)

If LaRussa was managing the Cubs and Piniella was in charge of the Cards we know who would be in first...

This is a joke, right? You think Tony LaRussa is worth 9 GAMES over Lou Pinella?

Look, all this talk about managers and chemistry and "professionalism" (for you CFB) is illusionary ########. In 2003 the Cubs finished ahead of the Cardinals. Were the Cubs "more professional", or did they have "better ownership" than the Cardinals that year? Was Dusty Baker a better manager than Tony LaRussa? What about 2007? 2008?

In 2009, The St. Louis Cardinals Professional Baseball Players have played Professional Baseball better than The Chicago Cubs Professional Baseball Players. Period.

46. SUBJ is growing his playoff beard Posted: August 28, 2009 at 09:17 PM (#3308058)

From today's Game Chatter:

35. SouthSideRyan Posted: August 28, 2009 at 04:32 PM (#3308000)
Who's the first media member to say Bradley only pads his stats when the games don't matter?

Lawrence Holmes on (one of our favorite punching bag media outlets) WSCR already said it. I was listening to him while out on Tuesday night, after the Zambrano-Nationals debacle, and he said something like (poor memory paraphrase): "you watch; Milton Bradley's going to go on a tear here in September, when the games are meaningless, and he's going to finish with a .280 average and a .400 OBP, and 20 homers, and there are going to be idiots in the offseason who just look at the numbers and say 'he had a great season'."

47. SUBJ is growing his playoff beard Posted: August 28, 2009 at 09:19 PM (#3308059)

BTW: I LOOOVED the extended Bronx cheers for Bradley whenever he caught a fly ball today, and the embarrassed silence from Len and Bob while this was going on.

48. SouthSideRyan Posted: August 28, 2009 at 09:24 PM (#3308061)

I used to love Laurence Holmes when he produced Grobstein overnights. I was like 12 at the time though. As I've stated, I was kind of a weird kid.

49. McCoy Posted: August 28, 2009 at 09:26 PM (#3308065)

I can't remember if I hate Lawrence Holmes or not. Isn't he the guy who has the show that contains about 9 million rhetorical questions? I think he is the guy who says everything in the form a question and then answers himself with an I don't know. I could only listen to WSCR during the afternoon when Murph was on and I could occasionally listen to the duo that came after his show. They were occasionally funny. The night crews were pretty bad.

50. SouthSideRyan Posted: August 28, 2009 at 09:30 PM (#3308069)

That sounds like a Holmes bit. I think you're thinking of the right guy. I think his show is titled "The Me Show"

51. SUBJ is growing his playoff beard Posted: August 28, 2009 at 09:32 PM (#3308070)

I can't remember if I hate Lawrence Holmes or not. Isn't he the guy who has the show that contains about 9 million rhetorical questions? I think he is the guy who says everything in the form a question and then answers himself with an I don't know.

Donald Rumsfeld went to work in sports radio after his SecDef gig? Funny we didn't hear more about that.

52. Anonymous Observer Posted: September 02, 2009 at 02:56 PM (#3311978)

2.73439%. Don't give up hope! They can do it!

AO

53. Moses Taylor lost his pants to a pair of nines Posted: September 04, 2009 at 01:23 PM (#3314363)

How stretch update: 5-5. Lost 2 of 3 to the starts to start it off. They just gave up (or probably more accurately, just weren't good enough).

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