BBTF's Gonfalon Cubs Discussion :: A look ahead to the postseason roster

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1. Andere Richtingen

Posted: September 19, 2008 at 02:51 PM (#2947352)

Agree pretty much 100%, although I would put Marquis down as a lock.

2. meatwad Posted: September 19, 2008 at 02:54 PM (#2947354)

im not sure who i want on in the marquis/howry debait, seems like its lose lose either way.

3. Andere Richtingen

Posted: September 19, 2008 at 03:10 PM (#2947371)

I think we are likely to see both, meatwad.

4. Andere Richtingen

Posted: September 19, 2008 at 03:13 PM (#2947379)

And really, I suppose Marquis being a lock depends on how he does in the coming week, where I'm guessing he gets two starts. If he sucks in both, and he has given up 10 walks in his last two starts, he could be left out. But if he's typical Marquis, I think he makes it, as the main mop-up guy.

5. zonk Posted: September 19, 2008 at 03:14 PM (#2947380)

Marquis can also hit a bit...

If a series comes down to the real margins - in Zambrano and Marquis, the Cubs do have 2 pitchers that can swing the bat a bit.

I've long been in the cool kids club when it comes to bashing Marquis, but there's no getting around the fact that he had an ERA+ of 101 last year, 103 this year. That ain't half bad at all.

If it gets me kicked out of the club, so be it -- but I'd be including Marquis on the post-season staff. No way he gets any starts - but he's the perfect mop-up pitcher and like I said, he adds marginal value in areas (PR and extra-inning, bench empty PHing) that any other pitcher cannot.

If there were another pitcher that had clearly thrown better than Marquis this year - fine, but there's not. Of the "bubble pitchers" for those last 2 spots, Marquis is clearly the best choice based on performance.

I'd also take Pie over Hoffpaiur, despite the heavy lefty tilt this gives the bench. Hoffpaiur would be a one-dimensional LOOGY PHer... Pie can just fill more roles - defensive replacement anywhere in the OF, PRing, etc.

6. Greg Maddux School of Reflexive Profanity Posted: September 19, 2008 at 03:23 PM (#2947389)

In a Marquis-Howry debate, Marquis wins because he can absorb innings, he can run and he can hit for another pitcher in the 14th inning.

7. McCoy Posted: September 19, 2008 at 03:32 PM (#2947398)

Does putting Lieber on the 60 day DL allow them to sub in any pitcher they want? Not that there is a FRod sitting in the minors or anything like that.

Geez looking at the transaction logs I can't believe Micah, Koyie, and Casey are all eligible to be in

8. retro-shiite Posted: September 19, 2008 at 03:37 PM (#2947406)

I'd be including Marquis on the post-season staff. No way he gets any starts - but he's the perfect mop-up pitcher and like I said, he adds marginal value in areas (PR and extra-inning, bench empty PHing) that any other pitcher cannot.

That's a persuasive argument for including him; you've convinced me. Especially if it somehow means Howry doesn't make the roster.

9. retro-shiite Posted: September 19, 2008 at 03:38 PM (#2947409)

In a Marquis-Howry debate, Marquis wins because he can absorb innings, he can run and he can hit for another pitcher in the 14th inning.

Or more succinctly, he stands a roughly 50/50 chance of not getting lit up like a Christmas tree in a given inning, unlike Howry.

10. retro-shiite Posted: September 19, 2008 at 03:39 PM (#2947411)

I would also prefer Pie to Hoffpauir. It's not like the Cubs are completely barren from the left side of the bench, between Ward and whatever combo of Fontenot/Edmonds/Fukudome isn't playing at a given moment.

11. McCoy Posted: September 19, 2008 at 03:41 PM (#2947414)

Is Pie even eligible for the playoffs? I thought he didn't get recalled until after the deadline.

12. Charles S., consistent since he changed his mind Posted: September 19, 2008 at 03:42 PM (#2947416)

I'm with Zonk for the most part. Marquis over Howry and Pie over Hoffpauir. Moses is right that it will probably never happen, but I would go with 10-man staff, and keep Pie and Hoffpauir, especially if Gaudin can't go. I disagree with Moses that Fukudome should be on the bench. It hurts the defense in right and at second with Fontenot out there, and how much better against the kind of pitchers we will see in the playoffs (you know, ones with curveballs) is Fontenot going to be?

13. McCoy Posted: September 19, 2008 at 03:43 PM (#2947418)

The rule is before Sept 1st right? So doesn't that mean guys like Micah, Koyie, and Casey are not eligible since they weren't called up until Sept 1st?

14. Moses Taylor lost his pants to a pair of nines Posted: September 19, 2008 at 03:45 PM (#2947421)

McCoy, it doesn't matter and hasn't mattered for years. As long as the guy is in the organization before September, there's always a way to get them on the roster. Rich Hill, Lieber, Gaudin, Chad Fox and any other number of people I'm forgetting can be used to weasel anyone on.

---

Only way Howry doesn't make it is if Gaudin is healthy.

---

I would also prefer Pie to Hoffpauir. It's not like the Cubs are completely barren from the left side of the bench, between Ward and whatever combo of Fontenot/Edmonds/Fukudome isn't playing at a given moment.

If Fukudome isn't starting, he fills that role instead of Pie and you take the bat over another pair of legs. I forsee lots of DeRosa in RF and Fontenot at 2b.

15. SouthSideRyan Posted: September 19, 2008 at 03:47 PM (#2947426)

In a Marquis-Howry debate, Marquis wins because he can absorb innings, he can run and he can hit for another pitcher in the 14th inning.

And cause he's a better pitcher at this point.

16. Moses Taylor lost his pants to a pair of nines Posted: September 19, 2008 at 03:47 PM (#2947427)

I disagree with Moses that Fukudome should be on the bench.

He's been terrible offensively for quite a while. And yes, I think the defensive downgrade in RF (I really don't think there's one at 2b, and if so it's very small) is worth the increase in offense going from Fukudome to Fontenot. Fontenot can hit a curve better than the current version of Fukudome. Plus, there's the significant power difference, and actually Fontenot sees more pitches and takes more walks right now.

17. Moses Taylor lost his pants to a pair of nines Posted: September 19, 2008 at 03:48 PM (#2947429)

18. McCoy Posted: September 19, 2008 at 03:54 PM (#2947435)

Aren't all the DL guys pitchers? So that means guys like Pie and Koyie and Micah can't weasel onto the roster.

Don't they also have to be on the 25 man roster then go on the DL in September? So doesn't that leave just Lieber?

19. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: September 19, 2008 at 03:57 PM (#2947440)

Also, I bet we'll see a lot of Fukudome the last week. If he shows any signs of life, I think Lou would love to have him starting. If we don't see him playing much, then we can know Lou's already written him off as a starting option.

That's my thought also.

I have nothing to add to the Marquis/Howry question (I agree on preferring Marquis for all the reasons given above) and I also agree on Pie over Hoffpauir.

The Cubs really need to take Cedeno. Otherwise, losing Theriot to injury is an instant disaster and none of the other bench options bring enough to the table for Chicago to take the risk of DeRosa or Fontenot trying to handle the position.

20. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: September 19, 2008 at 04:00 PM (#2947442)

Don't they also have to be on the 25 man roster then go on the DL in September? So doesn't that leave just Lieber?

I think they just have to be on the 60 day DL which would include Chad Fox.

21. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: September 19, 2008 at 04:01 PM (#2947445)

Man, I'm an idiot. I just confused Chad Fox with Jake Fox.

22. retro-shiite Posted: September 19, 2008 at 04:04 PM (#2947448)

Jake Fox is more likely to pitch without hurting himself.

23. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: September 19, 2008 at 04:09 PM (#2947457)

Jake Fox is more likely to pitch without hurting himself.

But more likely to break his leg fielding a grounder.

24. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: September 19, 2008 at 04:12 PM (#2947462)

Aren't all the DL guys pitchers? So that means guys like Pie and Koyie and Micah can't weasel onto the roster.

Internet research from non-definitive sources tells me that players on the DL can be replaced by a player of any position.

25. Moses Taylor lost his pants to a pair of nines Posted: September 19, 2008 at 04:14 PM (#2947465)

Correct, Pops. Maybe some day way in the past that was enforced. But it hasn't been the case for a number of years and is of no concern to Lou when figuring out the roster.

26. SouthSideRyan Posted: September 19, 2008 at 04:19 PM (#2947472)

I wonder if the Jake Fox/Jason Dubois comment was aimed at me. I'm still pretty livid that Casey McGehee was the righty they chose for September.

Personally(of the guys on the active roster) I'd take Cedeno(who I believe is a lock), Pie, Gaudin and Marquis. If Gaudin's not healthy, I'd take Wuertz.

27. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: September 19, 2008 at 04:21 PM (#2947477)

Also, I would like to say I'm a little disappointed DuBois didn't get a look after Iowa's season. That kind of thunder off the bench is rare and he probably has a touch more defensive value than Hoffpauir due to his experience in the outfield.

Man, 25 homers in under 300 Abs is pretty sick. Even in a hitter friendly league.

28. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: September 19, 2008 at 04:22 PM (#2947478)

I'm still pretty livid that Casey McGehee was the righty they chose for September.

My assumption is the Cubs looked at him as a possible backup 3B in the postseason if DeRosa was going to be needed in RF.

I wonder if the Jake Fox/Jason Dubois comment was aimed at me.

??

Not at all.

29. McCoy Posted: September 19, 2008 at 04:22 PM (#2947480)

Yeah, I'm thinking Cedeno is a lock. Leaving I think Lou free to take a pure bat into the playoffs for the last position spot.

30. Moses Taylor lost his pants to a pair of nines Posted: September 19, 2008 at 04:38 PM (#2947505)

I wonder if the Jake Fox/Jason Dubois comment was aimed at me. I'm still pretty livid that Casey McGehee was the righty they chose for September.

No, I think we all hate Casey McGehee, and I don't recall you bringing them up that often. That was more towards a couple people I know who are really on board the DuBois train. If I wanted to aim a comment directly at you, I would have brought up your comment about there being a non-zero chance of Marquis being in the rotation over Harden; that was pure paranoid delusion.

he probably has a touch more defensive value than Hoffpauir due to his experience in the outfield.

How soon you forget. DuBois is, without a doubt, the single worst defensive outfielder I have ever seen in my life. He's had some more time to play out there, but I can't imagine he's any better than Hoffpaiur right now. I was as adamant as anyone about him starting over Uncle Joey at the beginning of 2005, but after seeing him out there I really didn't blame Dusty for being hesitant to play him.

31. SouthSideRyan Posted: September 19, 2008 at 05:42 PM (#2947590)

I don't think it's really what you're getting at Moses, but I don't care if my righty off the bench is Daryle Ward level bad in the OF. I just want somebody besides Henry Blanco coming off the bench vs. a lefty. I love Felix Pie, and think they gave up on him too early this year, but I'd be glad to bump him off the roster for a righty worth a damn.

What if there was some sort of situation where the Cubs need a DH for some reason and a lefty is on the mound. Who DHs? Edmonds? Blanco? Kosuke? It's kinda ugly out there.

32. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: September 19, 2008 at 05:48 PM (#2947602)

What if there was some sort of situation where the Cubs need a DH for some reason and a lefty is on the mound. Who DHs? Edmonds? Blanco? Kosuke? It's kinda ugly out there.

Carlos!

Seriously, though, you have a good point. It's easily solved by trimming the roster to ten pitchers but that's not likely.

33. McCoy Posted: September 19, 2008 at 05:48 PM (#2947604)

Reed Johnson.

Other then that the Cubs don't have any real options in terms of righty bats off the bench. Well, they have Cedeno but he isn't going to be there because of his bat.

34. McCoy Posted: September 19, 2008 at 05:49 PM (#2947611)

Even if they trim the pitchers down to 10 the Cubs don't really have any right handed hitter you want up there in crucial PH situations other then their starters.

35. JJ1986 Posted: September 19, 2008 at 05:53 PM (#2947617)

Zambrano's hitting .476 against lefties this year. He's probably the best RH pinch hitting option.

36. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: September 19, 2008 at 05:56 PM (#2947620)

I suppose the Cubs would DH Soto and play Blanco at catcher if it came to that.

37. SouthSideRyan Posted: September 19, 2008 at 05:57 PM (#2947621)

Reed would be playing CF against a lefty. The Cubs current vs. lefty lineup leaves Blanco, Kosuke, TOFU, Fontenot, Ward, Pie, Hoff, Koyie, and Casey Mcsucksuck on the bench.

38. McCoy Posted: September 19, 2008 at 06:00 PM (#2947633)

Why would anyone DH in the NL playoffs?

39. McCoy Posted: September 19, 2008 at 06:05 PM (#2947638)

Reed would be playing CF against a lefty.

I'm sorry I thought the DH was a misprint and you meant PH. Oddly enough Sukudome has been decent against lefties but I doubt the success is recent.

40. Lou Novikoff Cocktail Posted: September 19, 2008 at 06:24 PM (#2947678)

I like the idea of the final week being an audition process for Lou. I honestly don't think that Marquis has anything to prove to Lou at this point -- he appears to be a mortal lock for the postseason roster based upon his surprisingly non-sucky second half, with his hitting and running abilities strictly a bonus. But adding or discarding another RHB off the bench? Seeing if the post-dumpster Gaudin is capable of throwing effectively? I can see Lou making some last-minute determinations based upon how people look in otherwise-meaningless games at Shea and Miller.

41. Rafael Bellylard: Built like a Molina Posted: September 19, 2008 at 08:34 PM (#2947890)

I haven't read through the entire thread, but with so many days off built into these short series, I think you could get away with 3 SP, one swingman and 6 relievers pretty well, especially if you want that extra bat/fielder on the bench.

42. Moses Taylor lost his pants to a pair of nines Posted: September 19, 2008 at 08:39 PM (#2947893)

There aren't as many off days as I thought. For the game 1 starter to go in game 4, it would be on short rest. I don't want that to happen.

---

BTW, this post turned out to be a jinx for Z, didn't it?

43. Andere Richtingen

Posted: September 19, 2008 at 08:53 PM (#2947911)

Amazingly, Zambrano followed up the best Game Score of his career (96) by tying his worst (9, matching his August 9th start against St. Louis).

44. Rafael Bellylard: Built like a Molina Posted: September 19, 2008 at 09:27 PM (#2947920)

Yes, but it's October and you're one rainout from it being proper rest. By all means, go with a 4th starter if necessary, but I still can't see needing more than 6 pitchers in the pen with the days off that are available, unless the Cubs can't pitch relievers on consectutive days. They certainly have things locked up to a point they can make sure everyone is rested for Game 1.

45. Moses Taylor lost his pants to a pair of nines Posted: September 19, 2008 at 09:32 PM (#2947925)

I don't disagree with you, but I just don't think any team does that anymore. Just like in the regular season, every team carries 12 pitchers. I've just accepted that since it's appears to be the SOP nowadays.

46. SouthSideRyan Posted: September 19, 2008 at 09:37 PM (#2947930)

That's the problem #40, there is no RHB to audition in the last week cause we have Casey ###### McGehee as our right hander for September.

47. CW hits the pinata for the candy Posted: September 19, 2008 at 09:37 PM (#2947932)

Hey, he had two RBIs today!

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