i dont mind seeign theroit on the roster and being use quite a bit. its a shame though that they wasted money on guys like derosa when theroit can fill that spot cheaply. and its nice to see the lou hasnt annoited floyd as the starter, still leaving the battle open betewwn him and murton. but we shall see how it all shakes out in the end.

I'm disappointed that Wuertz is having to fight with the likes of Cherry and Novoa for a roster spot; I think he's as good a bet as anybody (except maybe Howry) to be the Cubs' best reliver this year if he makes the roster.

I'd say I'd be more excited at the idea of Murton, rather than The Riot, replacing Jones against lefties, but that means Floyd against a lefty; IIRC, he doesn't hit them much better than Jones does anymore.

I don't want Tomas Perez anywhere near the major league roster. He's like Neifi Perez with less glove, and, yes, less power.

So what is Prior's status at this point? Is he being sent down, or DLed, or what? If the latest reports on his spring performance are accurate, he's not anywhere near being able to contribute.

And it'd be nice if Guzman eventually gets a chance in the rotation, though I'm not sure he's the prospect he once appeared to be.

So what is Prior's status at this point? Is he being sent down, or DLed, or what? If the latest reports on his spring performance are accurate, he's not anywhere near being able to contribute.

I've read extended spring training. I don't know the repurcissions of that move.

Theriot had a good season last year and has had a good spring training, but as you mention, he could be a fluke as his performance has been out of line with his minor league numbers. Even with just a .240 Eqa, a hustling utility guy who can steal a base is valuable, though a bit of a liability as a starter. While I don't have a great deal of faith in DeRosa, he has had two straight seasons with an Eqa over .270 (per PECOTA page) and we know he can handle SS. I'm not a huge fan of the DeRosa signing--I'd have rather the Cubs pursued Durham or Iwamura--but even if he underperforms a bit, he should be an average starting 2B for 2007. And while I think DeRosa's odds of putting up an awful season this year are a bit higher than the average average 2B, it's 2008 and 2009 that really irk me about that deal.

Tomas Perez might be one of the few major league options who's actually a worse hitter than Ronny Cedeno. Rumor has it that the Cubs are interested in acquiring a no-hit utility guy. Robert Andino, Clint Barmes and Chris Woodward were the names I read on mlbtraderumors.

In other news, Carlos Zambrano says they're close to a deal, but also implies that it might just be optimism coloring his perception. Considering that Opening Day is a couple of weeks away, Hendry has plenty of time to get this done if he wants to. I don't care if the negativism regarding Zambrano's injury potential over at Prospectus (Carroll red light, Sheehan's comments, etc.) is true or not, I'd just like to see my favorite Cub remain in blue pinstripes. I don't really buy the arguments that the Cubs should see what they have in 2007 before committing; the risk in a longterm deal is going to come in 2010 and beyond, since the problem is with stacking the yearly 10-12% chance of catastrophic injury.

To me, this is not a well-constructed roster. They have a logjam in the corner OF, with 3 available "regulars". They have a CF who has never played CF before, which will probably work out OK except that it blocks Pie, who is probably ready. They also seem to have a logjam in the bullpen. By insisting on keeping 2 lefties, they have too many quality righty candidates, and a good one (Wuertz) might not make the team. They have a closer who doesn't have nearly the control you want for that role. They have D Ward, a guy with little to contribute and who would not make my team. And what are they gonna do with Prior, if/when his pitching comes around? Make him pitch in the minors until a slot opens up (because of injury or ineffectiveness)?

As far as Theriot's batting, yes, he did have a 'fluke' season in 2006. But looking as his minor league stats, his OBA has been consistently around .360 since 2003 began. I understand that it's not adjusted or anything, and that he has little power, but I won't be surprised if he contributes well in his backup role.

If relievers really are as freely available and fungible as the statheads claim, then a logjam of decent options isn't really much of a problem. It gives the team depth for when others get injured or struggle. To me, a logjam suggests an opportunity, since there are a lot of teams out there looking for bullpen help.

As for Pie, if he tears up AAA, no one among the group of Jones, Murton and Floyd should get in the way of his playing time. That potential surplus would provide the Cubs with an opportunity for trade later in the year while currently giving them a chance to keep Pie in the minors for a month or two to polish up his skills and avoid super two status. Presumably the interest in Jones hasn't been what the Cubs had hoped for, but there are several teams looking for OF help. Also, with the flexibility that DeRosa provides, the Cedeno / Perez last spot on the roster could be sacrificed to get Pie up with the big club. In that scenario, DeRosa would be SS backup with Theriot as the backup 2B. If the Cubs encounter a couple of injuries, Soriano could be moved to 2B on an emergency basis. In the abstract, it's pretty unlikely that the Cubs would be that ballsy enough to follow the backup SS plays in AAA strategy, but an "excess" of talent might force them to consider what I think is a pretty interesting possibility.

Ward is on the team to give Derrek Lee a rest and maybe play a bit at the OF corners. He's a left handed bench bat who seems capable of putting up an OPS+ over 100. If, god forbid, Lee gets injured, he'd be a good stopgap. Although someone who hits like Floyd did and can play OF and 1B would have been a better option, it's tough to find players who would be below starter quality 1B, albeit below average, who won't kill you in an OF spot. On days when Floyd and Jones start in the OF, Ward is arguably the best pinch hitting option against tough RHP.

Concerning Mark Prior, I think the Cubs are acting consistent with the principle that "whatever he contributes is a bonus." It seems wise to me to re-evaluate him in May or June when they have a better sense of how their rotation is stacking up and how far along Prior is.

This isn't the best constructed roster, but it does have a lot of quality players. Except for Cedeno/Tomas PErez, everyone on it should be a useful piece. I'm much happier that the Cubs are going into 2007 with a redundancy of decent options than the 2006 plan of redundant useless options. My main concern, CF backup, is allayed a bit given Soriano's history of durability.

Well, a lot of your complaints are on the job Hendry did, IMO, Duffy. I think Lou's making the best of the options available to him.

The Cubs haven't really had a good lefty PH bat in a while, and I think Ward fills that role just fine. Ideally, he'd have some defensive value also, especially on a team carrying 12 pitchers. Who would you rather have on the team (that's in camp)?

I'm not convinced Pie is ready yet, and I'd rather be safe than sorry on that one. He wasn't healthy all of last season, and still doesn't have the great pitch selection. Starting in AAA won't slow him down (is he even 21 yet?). If he proves he's ready then, great. That a luxury the Cubs also haven't had in a while. But I think Jones would be moved if that turned out to be true. I think I'd probably prefer Moore to Theriot, but he might turn out to be starter-quality at some point (although he's currently blocked at 1b/3b).

Also, you meant three lefties. I didn't like the Cotts deal, mostly because of that (and because he's not as good as Ohman). I'm shocked the Cubs kept all 3 this offseason. One of them could be useful in a trade down the line. And if Dempster blows the closer role, I have no reason to think Lou is married to keeping him in that role.

I think the Cubs have more depth at a lot of areas than they have in the past. And that's a really good thing.

Or, what Thomas said.

I guess given that DeRosa & Theriot are going to be the primary third base backups, it's unlikely that the Cubs would consider axing a Cedeno / Perez type player for Pie. Without a crappy MI backup, if Ramirez' groin were ever to require 3-4 days off & Izturis were to be injured, they'd be forced pretty quickly to play Soriano at 2B. Considering that Izturis and Ramirez are both prone to nagging injuries that might not be enough to warrant DL time, their simultaneous injury is a reasonable posssibility. Teams are overcautious about injuries creating the possibility of having to do the "Jermaine Dye at SS thing" and I'd expect the Cubs to fall into line with the common practice. Considering how tightly packed the Cubs' roster is with un-optionable players, they might have some difficulty figuring out what to do if Pie forces the issue. In all likelihood, if Pie proves himself ready in Iowa, either an 11 man pitching staff or an OF trade / injury is going to be necessary for him to get the call. If that's the worst of their problems, as Moses says, that's a really good thing.

As for Moore, I think the question isn't Moore vs. Theriot, but rather Moore vs. Daryle Ward or maybe Moore v. Perez / Cedeno. As far as I know, Moore can't really play SS or 2B which means he can't really fill the role Theriot will. Compared to Ward, I suspect that Moore is an inferior hitter--though PECOTA doesn't see it that way--but capable of playing 3B. I like the idea of keeping Moore instead of a crappy middle infielder, since it would free up Theriot to focus exclusively on backing up the middle infield while avoiding the problems that might arise from simultaneous injuries to Ramirez & Izturis. (Not that I think that's all that legitimate of a concern, but it's one that the Cubs would consider; although it's a bit weird to take that into account, since it looks unlikely that the Cubs would consider Moore playing much of a role at all.)

According to a new Trib article, Wuertz has locked up a spot in the pen. Good. Longman slot's between Guzman and Cherry.

Basically, I'm about as optimistic as I could possibly be about a Cub team coming off a 96-loss season with Prior and Wood both on the shelf to start the year (again). I'm excited to see what this year brings. I think if nothing else, this Cub team should be a lot more fun (corollary: a lot less infuriating) to watch than recent versions, whatever that's worth.

Random responses --

* Glad to read your thoughts, Moses. Hope you enjoyed diving into the pool as much as I did.

* I'm all in favor of Guzman and Cherry making the squad, with Guzman possibly being the 5th starter or a spot starter at the very least. Cherry hasn't made any prospect lists because of age, but he has looked good both in spring and last season. I certainly don't see why someone like Novoa should be guaranteed a spot based on his past performances.

* As for Wuertz, I like him as well and believe that under other circumstances, he should be presumed to have a roster spot. Then again, I do believe that I read he's been hurt this spring, so I can understand that it shouldn't be out of the question that he starts the season in Iowa or on the DL.

* I disagree that Floyd is the de facto starter (or that he will "get every chance to be the regular"). To the contrary, I believe that Murton will be the predominant starter and that there is a very real chance that Floyd may see as much time in RF as LF. I also believe that the team has announced that Floyd won't start the season, but will get additional few weeks at the start of the season to heal.

* Regarding Theriot, I also worry that we're making more of his second half than he deserves and that he'll turn into a pumpkin this season. Then again, I also think that we're doing much the same with Mark DeRosa.

In fact, when one considers that Theriot will likely be used as a utility player (as DeRosa was), IMO the main differences between the two are age and salary, not necessarily talent or production. Put another way, I can see both Theriot and DeRosa flaming out . . . or perhaps both will succeed. Who knows.

I agree with TRHN that I would've preferred the Cubs made a run at Iwamura than DeRosa. (Durham . . . . not so much.)

* I really worry about the Cubs OF defense. In fact, I think the only reason people are seriously considering giving Pie an early call-up is because they are justifiably uncertain about having Soriano and/or Jones in CF.

* I'm reading a lot about Buck Coats possibly making the team -- particularly if the 25th spot is between him and Pagan, for instance. I don't know how I feel about this; neither guy impresses me much.

* I don't imagine Moore seeing the big club until September, barring an injury.

On Murton/Floyd

DeRosa is weird. Last year he had an 825 OPS on the road and a .799 OPS at home. He had a .983 OPS vs. LHP & a .749 OPS vs. RHP. In 2005, his home road split was 1.144/.494 and his L/R split was 1.039/.580. The only meaningful conclusion I could draw from these splits is that if Derosa falls off from last year's production against RHP, he might be borderline useless in 2/3s of his PAs. On the bright side, he wasn't taking much advantage of the Ballpark last year and Derosa'll make a good platoon mate for Eric Patterson. Looking into it, I've moved from "not a fan" of the deal to active dislike.

As for Durham, if the Cubs are going to go for it this year, then they should go for it. For an injury prone player, Durham's pretty durable. He's had 540+ PAs the last three years and the bat's still there. Defensively, he might not have been much better than Soriano at 2B, but his bat would make up for his glove. Durham would have probably required a two year commitment, but he would have been one of the best options for 2B on the current FA market.

The odds of Theriot truly bottoming out are pretty low. PECOTA hates him, probably because of his lack of power and reliance on walks for much of his value. Still, I think the odds are against Theriot putting up a line much lower than 275/325/375, which isn't great, but useful for a bench bat.

i doub this will get seen, but i just had to post it

1. Andere Richtingen Posted: March 27, 2006 at 11:42 AM (#1920842)

Nice job, Scott. Much better than the drivel we've seen in the previews from the previous couple of years!

I think I see things pretty much the same way. I like your bullseye call of 85 wins, but don't think, say, 80 or 90 is much less likely. I think the chances of 95+ wins is also significantly non-zero. It wouldn't require a terrible run of injury luck to drive it down to 70 or fewer.

And it'd be nice if Guzman eventually gets a chance in the rotation, though I'm not sure he's the prospect he once appeared to be.

Considering his injury history, a bullpen role may be the only way to keep him healthy and productive.

To me, this is not a well-constructed roster. They have a logjam in the corner OF, with 3 available "regulars". They have a CF who has never played CF before, which will probably work out OK except that it blocks Pie, who is probably ready.

I can't deny this but it's also a pretty talented roster and I can hope that this Cub management crew is better at allocating resources than the previous version.

It's spring! This is our year! Cubs will go all the way! Kill me now!

And it'd be nice if Guzman eventually gets a chance in the rotation, though I'm not sure he's the prospect he once appeared to be.

Considering his injury history, a bullpen role may be the only way to keep him healthy and productive.

To me, this is not a well-constructed roster. They have a logjam in the corner OF, with 3 available "regulars". They have a CF who has never played CF before, which will probably work out OK except that it blocks Pie, who is probably ready.

I can't deny this but it's also a pretty talented roster and I can hope that this Cub management crew is better at allocating resources than the previous version.

It's spring! This is our year! Cubs will go all the way! Kill me now!