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   1. Darren Posted: December 11, 2005 at 08:40 PM (#1772514)
You cannot stop at Tejada, though. You have to get a "thumper" to hit behind him. That's where the Manny Ramirez+$15 mil for Pie/Murton/Guzman trade comes in.
   2. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: December 11, 2005 at 08:48 PM (#1772527)
2 problems:

Ramirez' contract is voidable after this season and Baltimore will not like that.

Melvin Mora is at third base. Sure, he could play outfield but will he want to? Will Baltimore want to make him?
   3. fables of the deconstruction Posted: December 11, 2005 at 09:12 PM (#1772554)
Melvin Mora is at third base. Sure, he could play outfield but will he want to? Will Baltimore want to make him?

I think if the O's were going to deal with the Cubs using Tejada, A. Ramirez might be a tastey side-dish but, the main course would have to include a Major League starting pitcher. Ramirez alone will not get it done. Although I'm open to being surprised, I can guaranttee that the O's will deal with whatever fallout a trade creates in only the worst possible way.

-------
trevise
   4. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: December 11, 2005 at 09:27 PM (#1772570)

Melvin Mora is at third base. Sure, he could play outfield but will he want to? Will Baltimore want to make him?


Well, in theory, you could shift Mora over to SS, he's played almost 200 games there, although I have no idea of what quality he is
   5. fables of the deconstruction Posted: December 11, 2005 at 09:56 PM (#1772586)
Well, in theory, you could shift Mora over to SS, he's played almost 200 games there, although I have no idea of what quality he is

To explicate, he's playing 3B. Not that he's unable to play SS in a pinch, but you wouldn't want to hinge your entire season on him playing there in a regular capacity.

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trevise
   6. Andere Richtingen Posted: December 11, 2005 at 10:23 PM (#1772629)
You have to ask yourself how much better off the Cubs would be in the short-term with Tejada/whoever at 3B over Ramirez/whoever at SS, and I don't think the difference is big enough to overcome issues regarding Tejada's higher price, and the fact that you lose out on Ramirez's age 28-30 seasons for Tejada's 30-33. If the feeling is that Ramirez is going to walk after this season, then things might be different, but I'm guessing that Hendry has no choice but to aggressively work on renegotiating Ramirez's contract this season to prevent that from happening.

If it would take Ramirez and a starting pitcher, then the Orioles aren't serious about trading Tejada, and I see no reason to think they are or that they should be.
   7. Dusty's Least Favorite Base-Clogger (Roy Hobbs) Posted: December 11, 2005 at 10:30 PM (#1772632)
Mueller and Garciaparra are not yet signed.

It's very likely that Mueller will be signed this week before this whole thing even starts to play out--if it ever does. The odds are still that the O's keep him and if they do end up trading Tejada the O's management tends to move at a molasses-like pace.

And since the Cubs didn't offer arbitration, I don't think Nomar could sign with the Cubs now until May 1, 2006.
   8. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: December 11, 2005 at 10:30 PM (#1772633)
Well, in theory, you could shift Mora over to SS, he's played almost 200 games there, although I have no idea of what quality he is

I would assume that any trade with the Cubs would include Cedeno to take over at ss.

Do the Orioles have a DH? Aramis isn't the healthiest fellow and his defense is pretty substandard.
   9. fables of the deconstruction Posted: December 11, 2005 at 11:17 PM (#1772676)
Do the Orioles have a DH?

It will probably be (mostly) Javy since the likelyhood that he'll be a decent answer as the regular 1B is somewhere between slim and none.

If it would take Ramirez and a starting pitcher, then the Orioles aren't serious about trading Tejada, and I see no reason to think they are or that they should be.

Andere,

That was speculation on my part, but in most potential trade situations involving Tejada, it's fairly likely to be the O's mindset and starting point.

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trevise
   10. Andere Richtingen Posted: December 12, 2005 at 12:14 AM (#1772713)
That was speculation on my part, but in most potential trade situations involving Tejada, it's fairly likely to be the O's mindset and starting point.

If they can get a player the caliber of Ramirez plus a major league starter, then more power to them.

I dunno, I'm more of a mind that the Orioles are like the Cubs were in the mid-90s, in need of stripping down to nothing and building from scratch, but lacking the awareness that they are in that position, much less knowing how to accomplish the task. I agree with GTWMA that Tejada is unlikely to be a contributor to the next O's contender, so they ought to raid someone's farm system for him.
   11. fables of the deconstruction Posted: December 12, 2005 at 01:13 AM (#1772786)
I dunno, I'm more of a mind that the Orioles are like the Cubs were in the mid-90s, in need of stripping down to nothing and building from scratch, but lacking the awareness that they are in that position, much less knowing how to accomplish the task. I agree with GTWMA that Tejada is unlikely to be a contributor to the next O's contender, so they ought to raid someone's farm system for him.

I'm not sure they need to go that far but, it's certainly within the realm of possiblity. The point I do agree with GtwMA on is they definitely need people with the wherewithal and freedom to make "inspired decisions." This is really what they've lacked other the past twentysome odd years. The problem is they make one of these (signing Tejada) then, follow it with about 14 insipid ones in a row. (i.e.: Sid "the blimp", Palmeiro, Surhoff, Sammy Soso, Jeff Conine's animated corpse...???)

At one time, they did this pretty well. (A minor league system well stocked with decent ML prospects, good player evaluation and acquisition skills. See1976 in season trade with NYY.) Now they're just as dysfunctional as the Cubs have been for... (*grumble, grumble...* [fade]) ;) ...

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trevise
   12. Moses Taylor, Moses Taylor Posted: December 12, 2005 at 05:01 AM (#1773043)
Ken "Levski" Rosenthal thinks the Cubs are the favorite to land Tejada.

This is purely a speculative article, and it doesn't have any actual rumors.
   13. Mike Isaacs Posted: December 12, 2005 at 06:01 AM (#1773148)
Ramirez' contract is voidable after this season and Baltimore will not like that.
Melvin Mora is at third base. Sure, he could play outfield but will he want to? Will Baltimore want to make him?


Reasonable points. I see the first problem you mention as a bigger -- but not insurmountable hurdle. In addition to having played SS as mentioned by another poster, Mora has logged plenty of OF time and not all that long ago. He played a considerable amount of LF only two seasons ago. In total, he's played more than 350 games in the OF. I would have to think that the Orioles would be enticed by getting a permiere 3Bman just coming into his prime. In addition, Ramirez could also fit as a DH at times.

</i> However, the contract situation could make the deal undoable. But the first question is whether the Cubs would ever be willing to entertain such an idea in the first place. I don't think they would, but I would given the way they are approaching this season.

You have to ask yourself how much better off the Cubs would be in the short-term with Tejada/whoever at 3B over Ramirez/whoever at SS, and I don't think the difference is big enough to overcome issues regarding Tejada's higher price, and the fact that you lose out on Ramirez's age 28-30 seasons for Tejada's 30-33.

I agree that this is the main question, but I guess we come to different conclusions. First off, the ages are supposedly pretty reliable now from what I read. The proposed deal from my POV is predicated on getting Mueller. Look at the infield from third to first and suddenly defensively the team is much improved. Mueller is reliable at 3B, and although his range is no great shakes, the fielder right next to him -- Tejada -- makes up for that. Cedeno at 2B is a solid improvement on defense, too. And then you have Neifi finally where he belongs -- as a defensive infielder only. Suddenly, a mediocre defensive infield with too little range looks close to grand. And the incredibile durability of Tejada -- considering how quickly key Cub players have gone down over the last several years -- makes the upgrade more valuable.

And since the Cubs didn't offer arbitration, I don't think Nomar could sign with the Cubs now until May 1, 2006.

Thanks for pointing this out. I had a brain camp. You're absolutely right about Nomar -- he's out of the picture. And you're also right that Mueller, my first choice anyway, is close to signing -- maybe with the Pirates.

That's why it's time for Hendry to be working the phones all night tonight -- talking to the Orioles and to Mueller's agent to see if a quick bombshell can be had by early in the week.

Not that I believe this has a chance of happening...I, too, don't think Tejada is going anywhere. But I'm not against the Cubs giving it one hell of a try.
   14. LSR Posted: December 12, 2005 at 10:02 AM (#1773259)
Ken "Levski" Rosenthal thinks the Cubs are the favorite to land Tejada.

This is purely a speculative article, and it doesn't have any actual rumors.


Just curious, what's an "actual rumor"?
   15. GotowarMissAgnes Posted: December 12, 2005 at 10:46 AM (#1773264)
This is unlikely to happen.

First, the Orioles have said often that they do not want to move Mora off 3B. They strongly believe that his production has increased because of that stability.

Second, Cubs fans may not realize it, but Miggy has a clause in his contract that allows him to demand a trade if he is traded by the Orioles. Thus, your ownership of Miggy could, unless he waives that clause, last only a year.

Is a year of Miggy worth that much to you?
   16. SouthSideRyan Posted: December 12, 2005 at 11:27 AM (#1773276)
Is it a special clause or is it just the rule that says if traded in the middle of a multi-year deal you can demand a trade the next offseason? Cause if it's simply the rule, I'm not worried by it. A player has to be truly miserable wherever he is to volunteer to become a free agent on March 15th, when no team has any serious money left in their budget.
   17. Scott Lange Posted: December 12, 2005 at 12:42 PM (#1773284)
Looks like it's all a moot point anyway:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2256260
   18. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: December 12, 2005 at 02:45 PM (#1773323)
That's pretty strange, Scott.

It still sounds like he's unhappy.
   19. zonk Posted: December 12, 2005 at 02:53 PM (#1773330)
06:42 AM (#1773284)
Looks like it's all a moot point anyway:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2256260


That actually relieves me a bit. While Tejeda is a "special" SS - Prior and Z can both be "special" starters, and I'm just really hesitant to part with either of them (even with the volatility of younger starters).

This team has really worked itself into a corner - I don't think they're going anywhere in 06 without another big bat, but they don't have enough trading chits to bring in that bat (at least, not without opening up another hole).

At this point - the best RF option might be a lottery tickey named Corey Patterson, hope he can rediscover the 2003 magic, and pray both the rotation and Rameriz stay healthy.

If the Cards can age, the Brewers still struggle through growing pains, and the Stros rotation fail to recover to any measurable degree from the loss of Clemens, maybe they sneak into the postseason....

but all told - and yeah, it's only December - I'm looking at 2006 with less optimism than I've had in 3-4 years.
   20. Spahn Insane Posted: December 12, 2005 at 03:32 PM (#1773356)
What, no Phil Rogers link? He proposes Z, Patterson, and Cedeno for Tejada and Cabrera (or Penn, Maine or Loewen), then signing Millwood or somebody. Meh.
   21. Spahn Insane Posted: December 12, 2005 at 03:36 PM (#1773361)
That Rosenthal article's a hoot. If he's thinking Suppan and Reyes for Tejada, I'd put the Cards a hell of a lot lower than 25 to 1.
   22. Fred Garvin is dead to Mug Posted: December 12, 2005 at 04:05 PM (#1773392)
He proposes Z, Patterson, and Cedeno for Tejada and Cabrera (or Penn, Maine or Loewen), then signing Millwood or somebody. Meh.

I wouldn't do it either, but I do think that it's going to take an offer of this type to get Tejada. I don't think offering ARam is nearly enough to get the O's to bite.
   23. Andere Richtingen Posted: December 12, 2005 at 04:20 PM (#1773407)
Ken "Levski" Rosenthal thinks the Cubs are the favorite to land Tejada.

This is purely a speculative article, and it doesn't have any actual rumors.

Just curious, what's an "actual rumor"?


It becomes an actual rumor after Rosenthal makes it up and throws it out in his column.
   24. Artie Ziff Posted: December 12, 2005 at 05:59 PM (#1773554)
I imagine there are twenty-something clubs that have dreamed up deals to bring one of the top five A.L. shortstops to their city.
   25. Dewey, Soupuss Not Doomed to Succeed Posted: December 12, 2005 at 06:19 PM (#1773597)
Wow, the White Sox are in that Rosenthal article. He proposes Garcia, Uribe, and "a young outfielder" (read: Chris Young) for Tejada.

That's about what it would take, but it wouldn't be a great trade for the White Sox, I don't think.
   26. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: December 12, 2005 at 06:38 PM (#1773644)
He proposes Z

Stop right there. Absurd.
   27. Eraser-X is emphatically dominating teh site!!! Posted: December 12, 2005 at 11:15 PM (#1774226)
It Tejada worth that much more than he's signed for? He'll be 30 next year.

Tejada's remaining contract (not sure what would happen with the signing bonuses)...
2006: $10M
2007: $12M
2008: $13M
2009: $13M

Zambrano's not supposed to be a free agent until 2008 and has been worth about 1 less WARP/year. He'll be underpaid the next two years and probably would extend now for under what Tejada is making in the 2008 and 2009 (maybe).
   28. Fred Garvin is dead to Mug Posted: December 12, 2005 at 11:24 PM (#1774249)
Stop right there. Absurd.

What is absurd about it --

(a) Is it absurd that the Orioles would demand Zambrano for Tejada? (Not IMO -- that's what it's probably gonna take.)

(b) Is a Zambrano/Tejada swap absurdly in favor of the Orioles? (Not IMO.)

(c) Is it absurd that Hendry would actually be willing to deal Zambrano, even for Tejada? (Yes, IMO -- and I think this is a problem.)

(d) Is it absurd for Rogers to speculate on, given either (a), (b), or (c)? (Yes, IMO -- which is why I was ranting last week that this talk is kind of pointless.)
   29. Andere Richtingen Posted: December 12, 2005 at 11:41 PM (#1774279)
(a) Is it absurd that the Orioles would demand Zambrano for Tejada? (Not IMO -- that's what it's probably gonna take.)

(b) Is a Zambrano/Tejada swap absurdly in favor of the Orioles? (Not IMO.)

(c) Is it absurd that Hendry would actually be willing to deal Zambrano, even for Tejada? (Yes, IMO -- and I think this is a problem.)

(d) Is it absurd for Rogers to speculate on, given either (a), (b), or (c)? (Yes, IMO -- which is why I was ranting last week that this talk is kind of pointless.)


a) yes, because the answer to c) is yes.

b) no, but there are other factors at play

c) see a)

d) I only read the first seven words of your question, and the answer is always yes to that.
   30. Sweet Posted: December 13, 2005 at 12:12 AM (#1774345)
I came to work today mulling the purely theoretical equities of a Tejada-for-Zambrano swap. When I couldn't get motivated to actually work, I decided to satisfy my curiousity regarding Zambrano's value. So -- without the help of a spreadsheet, mind you (stupid government computers) -- I projected the 2006 Support Neutral Lineup Adjusted Value Above Replacement for the 75 "established" pitchers who had accumulated the most SNLVAR from 2003-2005. I did this by eyeballing the set of 75 pitchers, calculating a weighted 1-2-3 SNLVAR for each, and then tweaking the result with a very rough age adjustment: +1 for pitchers who will be 27 and younger in their 2006 season, 0 for pitchers who will be 28-34, and -1 for pitchers who will be 35 and older.

Among the many caveats, including possible mistakes in my arithmetic and unintentional omissions of deserving pitchers, it's worth noting that list has a few significant intentional omissions, including John Smoltz, King Felix, Zach Duke, and others who by virtue of their newness only have one year of data. Where a pitcher had two years of data (because of injury or experience), I substituted 0.0 for the missing year. (This is a very inexact proxy for injury risk, I suppose, but otherwise the numbers are not injury-risk adjusted.)

OK, final caveat: This is just for fun; as I said, to "satisfy my curiosity" (and to pass the time). I'm not actually asserting that Zambrano will be better than Pedro or that Schilling will be the 74th-best pitcher in baseball next year.

With that, and with fingers crossed for formatting, here's the list:

1  Johan      8.6
2  Big Z      7.8
3  Willis     7.6
4  Pedro      7.3
5  Clemens    7.2
6  Peavy      7.2
7  Oswalt     6.6
8  Sheets     6.3
9  Livan      6.3
10 Carpenter  6.0
11 Webb       5.9
12 Hudson     5.8
13 Pettitte   5.8
14 Beckett    5.7
15 Garland    5.7
16 Colon      5.6
17 Prior      5.6
18 Lackey     5.6
19 Sabathia   5.6
20 Buerhle    5.5
21 Harden     5.4
22 Zito       5.4
23 Halladay   5.4
24 Schmidt    5.4
25 Mulder     5.3
26 Radke      5.0
27 Davis      5.0
28 Marquis    4.8
29 Unit       4.7
30 Silva      4.7
31 Loaiza     4.6
32 Washburn   4.6
33 Garcia     4.5
34 Lee        4.5
35 Myers      4.5
36 Penny      4.4
37 Vasquez    4.4
38 Clement    4.4
39 Bonderman  4.4
40 Millwood   4.3
41 Lohse      4.2
42 Glavine    4.1
43 Lawrence   4.1
44 Suppan     4.0
45 Weaver     4.0
46 H. Ramirez 3.9
47 Patterson  3.9
48 Od. Perez  3.8
49 R. Lopez   3.8
50 Westbrook  3.6
51 Capuano    3.6
52 Harang     3.5
53 Burnett    3.5
54 Maddux     3.4
55 Escobar    3.4
56 D. Wells   3.4
57 Redman     3.4
58 K. Wells   3.4
59 Hampton    3.4
60 Mussina    3.3
61 Morris     3.3
62 V. Zambran 3.3
63 Towers     3.1
64 J. Johnson 3.1
65 Thomson    3.0
66 Wood       2.9
67 Benson     2.9
68 Padilla    2.8
69 Arroyo     2.8
70 Eaton      2.8
71 Moyer      2.7
72 Rogers     2.7
73 Wakefield  2.6
74 Schilling  2.5
75 W. William 2.4

. . .
   31. Dr. Vaux Posted: December 13, 2005 at 12:18 AM (#1774359)
Is this runs above replacement or wins above replacement?
   32. Sweet Posted: December 13, 2005 at 12:21 AM (#1774372)
Wins.
   33. Fred Garvin is dead to Mug Posted: December 13, 2005 at 04:59 AM (#1774741)
Dumb question, but how does one input/format a table into BTF like Sweet's?
   34. Moses Taylor, Moses Taylor Posted: December 13, 2005 at 07:12 PM (#1775490)
"pre" tages, djf. With the <> brackets.
   35. Fred Garvin is dead to Mug Posted: December 13, 2005 at 07:45 PM (#1775545)
You mean like this -- (pre) and (/pre) -- only with brackets instead of parenthesis?
   36. Fred Garvin is dead to Mug Posted: December 13, 2005 at 07:48 PM (#1775548)
Testing --

Sudden Valley:    31-18 --
Salem:            28-21 3 GB
Piscataqua River: 26-23 5 GB
Lincoln Park:     21-28 10 GB
Ohio:             21-28 10 GB
Aetna:            20-29 11 GB
   37. Fred Garvin is dead to Mug Posted: December 13, 2005 at 07:48 PM (#1775550)
Cool! Thanks Moses!

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